Why Dollar General might struggle Dollar General (DG -0.45%) shares have risen by 33% this year (as of Tuesday afternoon), dwarfing the comparable performance of the S&P 500 index and its 0.5% gain. Despite the volatility and uncertainty of the economy, the discount retailer has become a bit of safe haven investment to hold on to this year. A big test for the retailer will come on June 3, when the company reports its latest earnings numbers. The stock could move quickly following the release of those number ...

Group 1 - Moretus Research provides high-quality equity research focused on U.S. public markets, aiming to deliver clarity, conviction, and alpha for serious investors [1] - The research framework identifies companies with durable business models, mispriced cash flow potential, and intelligent capital allocation, emphasizing a structured and repeatable approach [1] - Valuation methods are based on sector-relevant multiples tailored to each company's business model and capital structure, prioritizing comparability, simplicity, and relevance [1] Group 2 - Research coverage focuses on underappreciated companies experiencing structural changes or temporary dislocations, where disciplined analysis can yield asymmetric returns [1] - Moretus Research aims to elevate the standard for independent investment research by providing professional-grade insights and actionable valuation [1]

Group 1 - Stride Inc. has been named "Stock to Study" by BetterInvesting Magazine for August 2025, indicating potential interest from investors regarding its valuation [1][2] - The upcoming report will provide comprehensive fundamental data on Stride, including sales, earnings, pre-tax profit, and return on equity [2] - The same issue will also feature a fundamental review of Amgen Inc., which is considered undervalued by the Editorial Advisory and Securities Review Committee [3] Group 2 - The Editorial Advisory and Securities Review Committee consists of several CFA members, indicating a level of expertise in their evaluations [3] - BetterInvesting is a nonprofit organization focused on investment education, having empowered over 5 million individuals since its inception in 1951 [5]

Friedrich is the name given to our algorithm for analyzing companies that trade on the global stock markets. In creating Friedrich we concentrated on analyzing each company’s Main Street operations through various established ratios, along with our own unique ratios that we developed over the last 30 years. What we came up with is a final "Main Street" price per share based on Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), which is a framework of accounting standards, rules and procedures defined by the p ...

Core Viewpoint - GE Aerospace's stock has surged nearly 40% this year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which has decreased by 1%, raising concerns about potential overvaluation and a possible correction of 25-40% to below $150 per share [2] Financial Performance - GE Aerospace's stock is currently priced at approximately $235 per share, trading at nearly 60 times its free cash flow over the last twelve months, resulting in a cash flow yield of about 1.7% [2] - The company reported revenue growth of about 9%, which, while better than the 5% seen in recent years, is deemed insufficient to justify its high valuation multiple [2] - In Q1 2025, GE Aerospace achieved order inflows of $12.3 billion, reflecting a 12% year-over-year increase, and has an extensive backlog of $140 billion [3] Margin Expansion - GE Aerospace has experienced a significant increase in operating margin, rising from 12.3% in 2022 to 18.8% over the last twelve months, marking a 53% increase [4] Market Position - The company holds a leading position in the large commercial engine market, with its CFM56 and LEAP engines powering a substantial portion of the global commercial fleet, which creates a long-term revenue stream through maintenance and service operations [5] Future Outlook - While GE's revenue growth may remain in double digits, the rapid margin expansion is likely not sustainable, suggesting a need for valuation alignment with companies achieving 10-15% revenue growth [6] - Compared to Microsoft, which trades at about 48 times free cash flow with 15% annual growth, GE's current valuation appears stretched, indicating that at Microsoft's multiple, GE's stock price would be closer to $190 per share [7] Economic Factors - GE Aerospace's performance is closely tied to aviation volumes, which could benefit from a strengthening economy, potentially enhancing business and leisure travel as well as global trade [8][9] - Increased flight activity is expected to drive demand for new aircraft and engines, leading to higher maintenance and service revenue for GE, as operational hours increase [10] Investment Considerations - Comparing GE with firms like Nvidia and Microsoft helps in understanding the relative risk-reward dynamics of investing in GE, as these comparisons provide insights into whether the anticipated returns justify the associated risks [11][12]

Group 1 - Equity REITs own physical properties and generate revenue from rents, providing more stable cash flows compared to mortgage REITs (mREITs) which depend on interest rate spreads and leverage [1] - In the current macroeconomic environment characterized by high interest rates, equity REITs exhibit less direct exposure to yield curve volatility [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the differences between equity REITs and mREITs for investment strategies [1]

Group 1 - Investors generally exhibit low patience for tech stocks, expecting either growth for premium valuations or decline leading to permanent devaluation [1] - Gary Alexander has extensive experience in technology sectors, having worked on Wall Street and in Silicon Valley, and advises seed-round startups [2] Group 2 - The article reflects the author's personal opinions and indicates a long position in TWLO shares, highlighting a beneficial investment stance [3]

Core Viewpoint - American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) is expected to report disappointing first-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with significant declines in both revenue and earnings compared to the previous year [2][5][7]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AEO's fiscal first-quarter revenues is $1.1 billion, indicating a 4.6% decline from the same quarter last year [2]. - The consensus estimate for earnings per share is a loss of 25 cents, representing a 174% decline from earnings of 34 cents reported in the year-ago quarter [2]. - Comparable sales are projected to decline nearly 3%, with American Eagle decreasing 2% and Aerie falling 4% [7]. Operational Challenges - The company has faced persistent macroeconomic pressures affecting consumer discretionary spending, including elevated household debt and inflation, which have dampened consumer confidence among younger shoppers [5]. - Management expressed disappointment with the execution of merchandising strategies, leading to increased promotions and excess inventory, resulting in an inventory charge write-down of approximately $75 million [6][8]. - AEO has withdrawn its earlier guidance for fiscal 2025 due to macro volatility [7]. Future Outlook - Despite near-term challenges, AEO is focused on long-term value creation through its Powering Profitable Growth plan, which emphasizes brand amplification and operational optimization [9]. - The company is taking steps to stabilize margins and enhance profitability by streamlining expenses and improving efficiency [9]. Valuation Perspective - AEO's shares are trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 9.4X, below the five-year median of 12.25X and the industry average of 17.68X, suggesting an attractive investment opportunity [11]. - Over the past six months, AEO's shares have declined by 42.4%, compared to a 10.7% decline in the industry [12].

Core Viewpoint - Merck's stock has declined by 22% this year, underperforming the S&P 500 index, which is down only 1%, due to lowered guidance for 2025 and concerns about the long-term growth of its key drugs, Keytruda and Gardasil [1][2] Financial Performance - Merck's revenues have grown 4.1% from $60 billion to $64 billion in the last 12 months, compared to a 5.5% growth for the S&P 500 [8] - The company has seen its top line grow at an average rate of 5.8% over the last three years, slightly outperforming the S&P 500's 5.5% [8] - Merck's operating income over the last four quarters was $20 billion, with a high operating margin of 31.9%, compared to 13.2% for the S&P 500 [8] - The net income for the last four quarters was $17 billion, indicating a net income margin of 27.3%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 11.6% [8] Valuation Metrics - Merck's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 3.1, compared to 3.0 for the S&P 500, while its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 11.3 versus the benchmark's 26.4 [8] - The price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio for Merck is 9.4, compared to 20.5 for the S&P 500, indicating a lower valuation [8] Market Concerns - Weak sales of Gardasil in China have raised investor concerns, and Keytruda is approaching the end of its market exclusivity in 2028, which could impact future revenue [2][12] - Despite these concerns, the current valuation of Merck appears low, suggesting that negatives may already be priced into the stock [2] Financial Stability - Merck's debt was $35 billion at the end of the most recent quarter, with a market capitalization of $196 billion, resulting in a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 17.7% [13] - Cash and cash equivalents amount to $14 billion of the total $117 billion in assets, yielding a cash-to-assets ratio of 12.0% [13] Downturn Resilience - Merck's stock has shown slightly better performance than the S&P 500 during recent downturns, indicating resilience [10] - Historical data shows that Merck's stock has recovered from significant declines during past market crises, including a 65.5% drop during the 2008 financial crisis [14]

Core Viewpoint - Netflix is positioned as a potential candidate to join the $1 trillion market capitalization club by 2035, given its innovative culture and significant growth in the streaming industry [2][4]. Company Overview - Netflix currently has a market capitalization of approximately $500 billion and has seen its shares rise by 1,250% over the past decade [2][9]. - The company has transformed the entertainment landscape by introducing streaming video, disrupting traditional cable TV [4]. Financial Performance - Revenue growth from 2014 to 2024 is projected at a compound annual rate of 21.6%, with a 12.5% increase in the first quarter of 2024 [5]. - Netflix is expected to generate $18 billion in cash for content spending this year, indicating strong unit economics and significant earnings [7]. Strategic Initiatives - Netflix has diversified its offerings by entering the video game market and live event broadcasting, while also addressing password sharing and introducing a cheaper ad-based subscription tier [6]. Market Penetration - The company has less than 50% penetration in connected households, suggesting room for future growth [8]. Valuation and Growth Projections - To reach a $1 trillion market cap in a decade, Netflix would need to grow by approximately 100% or about 7% annually [9]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 56.5, which is considered high, and a reduction to 28 would require earnings per share (EPS) to grow at a compound annual rate of 15% to achieve the $1 trillion valuation [10]. Historical Performance - Netflix's EPS has historically increased at a faster rate than the projected growth, making the $1 trillion market cap a plausible target within the next decade [11].