李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 铁矿周报 2025 年 7 月 14 日 供需双降预期支撑 铁矿延续偏强势头 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/11 ⚫ 需求端：近期检修增加，上周铁水环比减少，根据高 炉停复产计划，预计铁矿需求延续偏弱状态。上周 247家钢厂高炉开工率83.15%，环比上周减少0.31个 百分点，同比去年增加0.65个百分点，日均铁水产 量 239.81万吨，环比上周减少1.04万吨，同比去年 增加1.52万吨。 ...

H糖产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年7月14日 刘珂 Z0016336 指标 现值 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 前值 5629 -3 白糖2601 5632 -0.05% 元/吨 5805 0.09% 白糖2509 5810 5 16.26 0.30 1.85% ICE原糖主力 16.56 美分/磅 白糖1-9价差 -181 -173 -8 -4.62% 元/吨 311377 298087 13290 4.46% 主力合约持仓量 手 仓单数量 22744 22934 -190 -0.83% 张 有效预报 106 106 0 0.00% 现货市场价格 单位 现值 前值 涨跌 涨跌幅 指标 6060 10 南宁 6050 0.17% 昆明 5905 25 5880 0.43% 南宁基差 250 5 245 2.04% 昆明基差 95 75 20 26.67% 元/吨 进口糖：巴西 (配额内) 4410 4479 -69 -1.54% 进口糖:巴西(配额外) 5600 -90 5690 -1.58% 进口巴西 (配额内) 与南宁价差 -1650 -1571 -79 -5.03% ...

| 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 品种 | 涨跌 | 单位 | 品种 | 7月10日 | 7月11日 | 7 10日 | 7月11日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | 旅跌幅 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 70.36 | 68.64 | 1.72 | 2.5% | POY150/48价格 | 0 | 0.0% | 布伦特原油(9月) | 6645 | 6645 | 美元/桶 | 1.88 | 2.8% | FDY150/96价格 | 0 | WTI原油(8月) | 68.45 | 66.57 | 6955 | 0.0% | 6955 | | | -7 | 0 | CFR日本石脑油 | -1.2% | DTY150/48价格 | 7910 | 0.0% | 591 | 7910 | 584 | -5 | -7 | 美元/吨 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint from Hengtai Futures indicates that coking coal is experiencing a strong fluctuation, with the market dynamics between coking coal and steel intensifying, leading to a slight decrease in coking coal demand and ongoing inventory accumulation pressure [2] - According to the analysis from Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures, coking coal has officially entered a price increase cycle, with total inventory beginning to decline, although production remains constrained due to previous environmental restrictions [3] - The overall sentiment in the market suggests that coking coal prices are currently undervalued, with expectations of a recovery trend, while short-term price increases may have already priced in future gains [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of domestic coking coal and coke prices and potential supply - side policies may boost market sentiment. Although the absolute value of port inventory is still low, production profit is good, domestic production and operating rate are still high, international methanol operating rate has rebounded to a high level, methanol imports have recovered, downstream profit is poor, downstream demand is under pressure, and inventory has increased. Therefore, methanol is likely to fluctuate. For single - side and option trading, the report suggests range - bound operations and selling straddle options [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint and Strategy - **Inventory**: China's methanol sample production enterprise inventory reached 35.69 tons this week, a week - on - week increase of 0.46 tons or 1.31%. Port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate slightly [7]. - **Supply**: This week, China's methanol output is estimated to be around 191.93 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 85.17%. The import sample arrival plan is estimated at 32.60 tons, including 16.70 tons of visible and 15.90 tons of invisible imports, and domestic trade is estimated at 3.5 - 4.0 tons [7]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall start - up of the olefin industry slightly increased. The start - up rate of dimethyl ether remained flat, that of acetic acid increased, while those of formaldehyde and chloride decreased [7]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: The import profit showed an inversion of - 43 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia remained stable at 122 yuan/ton, while the downstream profit suffered large losses, with the profit loss of MTO in East China still being large at - 1131 yuan/ton [7]. - **Coal Price**: Some traders are bullish on the traditional coal - using peak season, but the port inventory is still high, and the oversupply situation is difficult to change in the short term [7]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, short MA509. For PP - 3MA, short the spread. In option trading, sell straddle options [7][10][11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - **Spot Price**: As of July 10, the spot price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 2390 yuan/ton [15]. - **Basis**: As of July 10, the basis relative to the September contract was - 8 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3 Supply - side - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: Last week (20250704 - 0710), China's methanol output was 1909928 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77148 tons, and the device capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.89% [66]. - **International Operating Rate and Imports**: As of July 9, 2025, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 31.03 tons, including 26.42 tons of foreign vessels and 4.61 tons of domestic trade vessels [71]. - **New Capacity in 2025**: In 2025, China's new methanol capacity is about 860 tons, with a capacity increase of about 8.4%. Overseas, the new methanol capacity is expected to be 505 tons [73][74]. 3.4 Demand - side - **Apparent Consumption**: From January to May, the apparent consumption of methanol was 4577 tons, an increase of 7.6% [78]. - **Methanol - to - Olefin Operating Rate and Output**: Last week, the MTO operating rate was 85.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55% [82]. - **Traditional Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rates of different traditional downstream products showed different trends, such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE, and dimethyl ether [83][86]. - **Downstream Purchasing Volume**: No specific data summary was provided, but relevant charts were presented [90]. - **Production Enterprise Order Volume**: As of July 9, 2025, the sample enterprise's pending order volume was 22.12 tons, a decrease of 2.00 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 8.29% [98]. - **New Downstream Capacity**: In 2025, the new downstream capacity of methanol is mainly concentrated in the olefin field, with an estimated new olefin capacity of 236 tons and a theoretical new methanol demand of 660 tons. For traditional downstream, the new capacity is mainly in acetic acid and MTBE, with a theoretical new methanol demand of 587 tons [100]. 3.5 Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 9, 2025, China's methanol sample production enterprise inventory was 35.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 tons or 3.14% [104]. - **Port Inventory**: As of July 9, 2025, the Chinese methanol port sample inventory was 71.89 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.52 tons or 6.71% [107]. - **Port Floating Storage**: No specific data summary was provided, but relevant charts were presented [110].

Report Overview - **Date**: July 14, 2025 - **Subject**: Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Analysts**: Huang Liunan, Zheng Yujie 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The past week saw the container shipping index fluctuate and strengthen slightly. In the short - term, the market freight rate remained stable around $3350/FEU. Looking ahead to August, there is likely a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand at the monthly level. Freight rates may start to decline more rapidly in late August. For the strategy, it is recommended to hold a light short position for the 10 - contract and consider a pyramid - style build - up, with the upper pressure level at 1500 points. For the 2508 contract, pay attention to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions for delivery in the range of 1950 - 2000 points [9][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Fundamental Data of Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Futures**: EC2508 closed at 2,030.6, down 0.71%; EC2510 at 1,382.0, down 1.40%; EC2512 at 1,540.9, down 1.48% [1] - **Freight Rate Index**: SCFIS European route was 2,258.04 points, up 6.3% week - on - week; SCFIS US West route was 1,557.77 points, down 3.8% week - on - week. SCFI European route was $2,099/TEU, down 0.1% bi - weekly; SCFI US West route was $2,194/FEU, up 5.0% bi - weekly [1] - **Spot Freight Rates**: Rates for different carriers from Shanghai to Rotterdam varied, with prices for 40'GP ranging from $3110 - $3845 and for 20'GP from $1855 - $2604 [1] - **Exchange Rates**: The US Dollar Index was 97.86, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.17 [1] 3.2 Market Freight Rate Conditions - In late July, MSC and Yang Ming reduced prices, while the Gemini Alliance had a slight increase. The OA and PA Alliances, including ONE and HMM, kept their rates. The market freight rate remained stable around $3350/FEU [9] - Different alliances and carriers had different rate adjustments in July. For example, the FAK price of MSC decreased from $3640/FEU in early July to $3440/FEU in late July [9][10] 3.3 Shipping Capacity - The weekly average shipping capacity in July was 30.1 million TEU/week. In the past week, Maersk's overtime ship was redirected, and the capacity in week 31 was revised down to 33.5 million TEU [11] - The weekly average shipping capacity in August is 31.5 million TEU/week. Potential changes include whether Evergreen's "EVER GOVERN" will be dispatched, whether Maersk will send an overtime ship, and the situation of ship schedule delays [11] - In September, there are 2 empty sailings and 8 pending voyages. Excluding pending voyages, the weekly average shipping capacity is 29.3 million TEU/week, but this value has limited reference significance for now [11] 3.4 Shipping Company Loading and Rate Adjustment - The Gemini and OA Alliances had a relatively high proportion of long - term contracts, and their loading in late July was optimistic. MSC increased its shipping capacity in late July, faced more pressure in cargo collection, and reduced its FAK list price by $200/FEU. Only Yang Ming followed with a $100/FEU reduction [12] 3.5 Future Freight Rate Forecast and Strategy - **Neutral Scenario**: Spot FAK may be revised down to $3100 - $3200/FEU in wk31 and wk32, and then decreased by $200/FEU in wk33 and wk34. The neutral valuation of 08 is around 2050 points, and the delivery settlement price of 2508 may be in the range of 2050 - 2150 points [13] - **Pessimistic Scenario**: If Maersk adds a new overtime ship in wk33, it may cut prices to stock up in wk32, leading other carriers to cut prices, and the delivery settlement price of 2508 may move down to the range of 1950 - 2050 points [13] - **Optimistic Scenario**: If the OA Alliance raises prices in wk31 and wk32, the 2508 contract may have at least 200 points of premium water market [13] - **Strategy**: Hold a light short position for the 10 - contract and consider a pyramid - style build - up, with the upper pressure level at 1500 points. For the 2508 contract, pay attention to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions for delivery in the range of 1950 - 2000 points [13]

研究报告 纯碱周报 纯碱供需矛盾 市场弱势持续 华龙期货投资咨询部 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周纯碱主力合约SA2509 价格在1244-1163 元/吨之间运行， 价格保持低位震荡。 研究员：侯帆 截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日下午收盘，当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2509 上涨 43 元/吨，周度跌涨 3.66%，报收 1217 元/吨。 【基本面分析】 供给方面产量、产能利用率环比持平，截止到 2025 年 7 月 10 日，国内纯碱产量 70.90 万吨，环比持平。其中，轻质碱产量 30.88 万吨，环比减少 0.43 万吨。重质碱产量 40.02 万吨，环比 增加 0.43 万吨。 报告日期：2025 年 7 月 14 日星期一 库存情况纯碱库存小幅增长，截止到 2025 年 7 月 10 日，国 内纯碱厂家总库存 186.34 万吨，较上周一增加 1.53 万吨，涨幅 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·燃气Ⅱ 燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报 储库推进欧洲气价上升，高温天气缓和美国气价回 落，关注利润稳定的高股息标的新奥股份 2025 年 07 月 14 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025-06-30 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 谷玥 执业证书：S0600524090002 guy@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 20% 2024/7/15 2024/11/12 2025/3/12 2025/7/10 燃气Ⅱ 沪深300 相关研究 《欧洲储库推进、美国高温天气持续， 各地气价平稳》 2025-07-07 《中东局势缓和欧洲气价回落，高温 天气带动美国气价上涨，国内气价平 稳》 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 价格跟踪：欧洲储库推进气价上升，美国高温天气缓和气价回落，国内气价弱势运 行。截至 2025/07/11,美国 HH ...

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：市场氛围偏暖 期现共振走强 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 7 月 14 日 逻辑：上周，煤焦期货价格延续震荡反弹走势，现货市场跟涨，多地 焦企开始首轮提涨。近日市场情绪持续回暖，利多传闻不断，刺激价格走 强，但仍有待关注相关政策、措施实际落地情况。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 观点：近期在市场看涨氛围烘托下，叠加供需压力稍有缓解，期现货 共振走强。 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、煤矿复产情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper continued to decline, with the main contract of Shanghai copper falling 1.63% to close at 78,430 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and there were still many global uncertainties. In China, consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading was general, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 108,725 tons, showing a slight increase last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons [4]. - The supply - demand balance of copper in 2024 is in a tight balance, and there will be an oversupply in 2025 [11]. 3) Summary by Directory a) Market Review - Shanghai copper continued to decline last week, with the main contract falling 1.63% to 78,430 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and downstream consumption entered the off - season. Domestic spot trading was mainly for rigid demand. LME inventory increased slightly, and SHFE inventory decreased by 3,127 tons [4]. b) Fundamentals - **PMI**: No detailed information provided [9]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of copper in 2024 is in a tight balance, and there will be an oversupply in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows specific data from 2018 - 2024 [11][14]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory was 108,725 tons, showing a slight increase last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons. The bonded area inventory remained at a low level [4][18]. c) Market Structure - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees were at a low level [21]. - **CFTC Positioning**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions flowed out [23]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No detailed information provided [26]. - **Import Profit**: No detailed information provided [29]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: No detailed information provided.