证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 7 月 25 日 | 7 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 002244.SZ | 滨江集团 | | 002352.SZ | 顺丰控股 | | 1519.HK | 极兔速递-W | | 002648.SZ | 卫星化学 | | 688019.SH | 安集科技 | | 688680.SH | 海优新材 | | 603011.SH | 合锻智能 | | 600054.SH | 黄山旅游 | | 300476.SZ | 胜宏科技 | | 688519.SH | 南亚新材 | 中银晨会聚焦-20250725 深证成指 11193.06 1.21 沪深 300 4149.04 0.71 中小 100 6934.38 1.24 创业板指 2345.37 1.50 | 行业表现（申万一级） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | 美容护理 | 3.10 | 银行 | (1.42) | | 有色金属 | 2.78 | 通信 | (0.15) | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's listing review committee has approved Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical Co., Ltd.'s refinancing, confirming it meets the issuance, listing, and information disclosure requirements [1]. Group 1: Key Issues Raised During the Review - The issuer was asked to clarify the sales situation of cast blank products, customer performance verification progress, expected revenue during production, and existing orders to assess the feasibility of the "Blade Machine Box Processing Coating Project" and the reasonableness of the new capacity [2]. - The issuer was requested to provide details on the expected new orders and project specifics related to the "Advanced Nuclear Materials and Key Components Intelligent Upgrade Project" to evaluate customer stability and the rationality of the new capacity, as well as any potential capacity digestion risks [2]. - The issuer was required to explain the situation of accounts receivable over one year old, addressing any significant credit risks and the adequacy of bad debt provisions [2]. Group 2: Fundraising and Project Investment - The company plans to issue convertible bonds with a total fundraising amount not exceeding 150 million yuan, which will be used for the Blade Machine Box Processing Coating Project, Advanced Nuclear Materials and Key Components Intelligent Upgrade Project, working capital supplementation, and bank loan repayment [3]. - The investment amounts for the projects are as follows: Blade Machine Box Processing Coating Project (115 million yuan), Advanced Nuclear Materials and Key Components Intelligent Upgrade Project (64 million yuan), and working capital and loan repayment (45 million yuan), totaling 224 million yuan [4]. - The convertible bonds will be issued at face value, with each bond having a face value of 100 yuan, and the issuance will be managed by Huatai United Securities Co., Ltd. [4].

专题：新浪仓石基金研究院 机构资金持续涌入，债市"压舱石"产品迎来新里程碑。作为全市场首只超长期限ETF，该产品自2023年 5月成立两年多便实现规模从2.92亿到两百亿的跨越，成为债券ETF市场最耀眼的明星产品之一。 规模突破200亿创历史新高 鹏扬30年国债ETF的规模增长轨迹堪称债券ETF市场发展的缩影。鹏扬中债-30年期国债ETF（511090） 成立于2023-05-19，有效募集2110 户募资2.92亿。比较基准：中债-30年期国债指数收益率，基金经理施 红俊，王凯。今年2月14日，该基金规模首次突破百亿大关，达到102.28亿元，成为全市场第6只百亿级 债券ETF。不到半年时间，截止2025年7月24日，流通规模200.48亿元，展现出惊人的"吸金"能力。 长期视角下，该产品展现出超长期国债的独特投资价值。截至2025年7月24日，鹏扬30年国债ETF自成 立以来累计总回报28.83%，略输同期业绩比较基准，但大幅跑赢中证综合债同期表现，同类332只基金 中排名第1。 规模爆发式增长的背后是资金的持续追捧。仅5个交易日，鹏扬中债-30年期国债ETF（511090）近5个 交易日累计"吸金"21 ...

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 美联储"装修门"升级，特朗普首次"上门"施压降息，但解雇鲍威尔警报暂 停，贝森特指有其他风险。欧洲央行八连降后收手，维持利率不变，静待美方 关税政策明朗化，9 月降息预期骤降；拉加德警告：若欧美贸易摩擦升级，将 对通胀施加压力。中国强力"反内卷"！时隔 27 年，价格法重新修订。第二 十五次中国－欧盟领导人会晤举行。煤矿生产核查点燃市场情绪降温后，海 南封锁与反内卷升温再度提振市场风险偏好，慢牛趋势逐渐明确，股指中枢 上移。 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡上行。 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 国债：周四债券市场全线大幅调整。当下债市阶段性交易的重心显然不在资 金面和基本面，投资者行为和大类资产表现对债市的影响显著放大。相较商 品和权益市场，债市本轮此前的调整空间仍显不足，赔率有限，使得增量资 金谨慎入场，存量资金忐忑不安，这种筹码格局下，债市仍难大有作为。建议 阶段性的保存实力，等待更好的机会入场配置。 ◆ 策略建议： 关注止盈。 研究咨询部 2025-07-25 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司投资咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 彭博 从业编号：F30 ...

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 25 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货7月24日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2509 | 119.350 | 119.090 | 118.250 | 118.520 | -1.100 | -0.92 | 152329 | 122606 | 2694 | | TL2512 | 119.160 | 118.950 | 118.050 | 118.320 ...

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-07-25 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20250724：中国的服务业占比低吗？工资低吗？ 要进一步发挥好服务业就业"蓄水池"的作用，并着力于缩小行业间的收 入差距 固收金工 [Table_FixedGain] 固收深度报告 20250723：从国际到本土：物价低迷应对策略及中国趋势 分析—低利率时代系列（七） "通缩" 是货币供应量持续下降、物价持续下行且经济衰退的现象，表 现为价格普遍且持续环比下行、货币信贷收缩、经济衰退。其与正常价格 波动的显著区别是会自我强化，形成费雪的 "债务-通缩" 循环。产能 过剩或需求不足导致的供需关系失衡及名义货币供给或货币流通速度的 持续下降是通缩的主要成因。 1999 年 9 月至 2003 年 9 月，日本因货币 供应量增长速度下降叠加泡沫破裂导致需求减少引发通缩，政府采取大 规模财政扩张政策，尤其是大幅增加公共事业费支出；2009 年 2 月至 2013 年 5 月，受美国经济危机溢出效应等影响引发通缩，引入通货膨胀目标 制度，提出 2% 的" ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market sentiment for coking coal is optimistic due to accumulating positive factors, but there is a risk of a post - sentiment - release correction [2]. - Crude oil is expected to trade in a narrow range with OPEC+ maintaining its production increase stance, and it's advisable to stay on the sidelines [2]. - Iron ore is likely to have a short - term oscillating trend as supply pressure eases and the supply - demand relationship improves marginally [4]. - The upward momentum of rebar prices may slow down and enter an adjustment phase due to market risks and weakening demand [4]. - Hog prices are expected to be weak and volatile, with a suggestion to short at an appropriate time for traders and sell - hedge for farmers [5]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, with futures prices more likely to rise [5]. - Rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to trade policies and other factors [6]. - Short - term treasury bonds are negatively affected by rising capital costs and the overall economic situation, with the stock - bond seesaw effect being the main logic [7]. - Gold may enter a slightly bearish oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the dollar - gold seesaw effect [7]. - Silver is likely to be slightly bullish before the end - of - July interest - rate decision, and the synchronization of gold and silver trends should be monitored [8]. - PTA is expected to have weak supply - demand prospects, and it's advisable to stay on the sidelines [8]. - Natural rubber may be affected by the Thailand - Cambodia conflict, and cautious short - term long positions can be considered [9]. - Polypropylene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it's advisable to stay on the sidelines or take short - term long positions [10][11]. - Methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it's advisable to stay on the sidelines or take short - term long positions on pullbacks [11]. - Soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it's advisable to stay on the sidelines or take short - term short positions [12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Coking Coal - On July 24, coke enterprises in multiple regions proposed a third - round price increase, and some downstream steel mills have accepted it. The mainstream steel mills will conduct tenders on the 25th, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton effective from July 25 at 0:00 [2]. Crude Oil - The expected August export volume of CPC Blend crude oil from the Black Sea is 1.66 million barrels per day, about 6.5 million tons per month, similar to the July plan. Kazakhstan does not consider withdrawing from the OPEC+ agreement [2]. Iron Ore - From July 14 - 20, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 25.118 million tons, a decrease of 3.714 million tons compared to the previous week. Steel mills'复产 has accelerated due to profit incentives, and overseas shipments have decreased this week [4]. Rebar - As of the week ending July 24, rebar production was 2.1196 million tons, an increase of 29,000 tons (1.39%) from the previous week. Factory inventory decreased by 74,300 tons (4.29%), social inventory increased by 28,100 tons (0.76%), and apparent demand increased by 104,100 tons (5.05%) [4]. Hog - On July 24, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 112.69, down 0.05 points from the previous day. The average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 20.62 yuan/kg, up 0.2% from the previous day [5]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) expects the 2025 crude palm oil production to reach 19.5 million tons and exports to reach 17 million tons, both slightly higher than last year [5]. Rapeseed Meal - As of the week ending July 20, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 151.12% to 202,400 tons compared to the previous week. From August 1, 2024, to July 20, 2025, exports were 9.437 million tons, a 40.93% increase year - on - year [6]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - end varieties all increased. The overnight rate rose 26.8 BP to 1.635%, the 7 - day rate rose 8.2 BP to 1.545%, the 14 - day rate rose 8.8 BP to 1.615%, and the 1 - month rate rose 0.7 BP to 1.536% [7]. Gold - EU member states voted to impose counter - tariff measures on US products worth 93 billion euros. If the EU - US trade negotiation fails by August 7, these measures will take effect automatically [7]. Silver - On July 24, US President Trump visited the Federal Reserve, escalating the pressure on Fed Chairman Powell. The possibility of a July interest rate cut remains uncertain [8]. PTA - PXCFR is reported at $841/ton, PX - N at $272/ton. The price of PTA in East China is 4,818 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow cost is 4,680 yuan/ton. PTA social inventory is 3.6223 million tons, up 13,600 tons from the previous period [8]. Natural Rubber - The price of raw rubber latex in Thailand is 55.3 Thai baht/kg, and cup lump is 50 Thai baht/kg. Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first half of the year were 2.257 million tons, a 13.2% increase year - on - year [9]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene is 7,130 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate is 77.33%, an increase of 0.75% from the previous day [10]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,468 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton. China's methanol port sample inventory decreased by 64,400 tons to 725,800 tons this week [11]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1,290 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton. Weekly production was 723,800 tons, a 1.28% decrease. Factory inventory decreased by 2.15% [12].

如果去看进出口的话，我们会发现出口增速还是比较不错的，以美元计价的出口同比增速在5.8%，比 我们的预期高，因为之前市场预期可能6月的增速会有所下滑。进口表现也还不错，进口同比增速是 1.1%。主要由于对美国抢出口有所恢复，另一方面，对于东盟等国家的抢转口也在持续。 出口是大家比较关心的问题，因为关税一直有一定的不确定性。虽然近期中美关税处在比较偏温和的阶 段，但是美国又提到了提高对其他国家的关税，8月份开始收新的关税税率，这就导致部分投资者以及 分析师预期下半年出口对于经济的支撑有所减弱。这件事情可以从美国视角来看，从美国进口商的视角 来看，首先从去年特朗普赢得大选到今年4月，他们有这样一个认知，就是提高关税这件事情发生的概 率极高，所以他们在特朗普赢得大选之后就已经开始了一轮抢进口，对于我们国家就表现为抢出口。 美国的抢进口是否还会继续？我们可以去看库存的走势，在抢进口的背景下，如果消费也是偏强劲的时 候，这是不是说明它的库存不会有明显的累库。反之，如果消费跟不上进口增速的话，就会导致库存的 累库。如果累库到一定的阶段，就会进行暂停。如果下半年美国消费较弱，可能就是因为上半年抢进口 透支了未来的需求，下半 ...

Company Analysis - Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) reported a further improvement in same-store sales, with a double-digit growth in the pricing of gold jewelry. The overall retail value decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, but improved from a 11.6% decline in the previous quarter. The retail value in mainland China (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) fell by 3.3%, while the markets in Hong Kong, Macau, and others grew by 7.8% [15][16] - The same-store sales in mainland China decreased by 3.3%, a reduction of 9.9 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. In Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets, same-store sales increased by 2.2%, showing significant improvement from a 22.5% decline in the previous quarter. The sales of high-margin priced products, particularly gold, rose by 20.8% in mainland China [15][16] - Chow Tai Fook continues to optimize its store structure and enhance single-store efficiency, closing 307 underperforming stores during the quarter. The company also issued HKD 8.8 billion in convertible bonds to support business development, store upgrades, and strategic growth in domestic and international markets [16] Industry Analysis - Minstar (833394.BJ) reported a year-on-year revenue increase of 27.9% for the first half of 2025, reaching CNY 237 million, with a net profit of CNY 63 million, up 42.3% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, revenue was CNY 122 million, a 28.4% increase year-on-year and a 6.4% increase quarter-on-quarter [15][17] - The demand for aramid paper continues to grow, driven by industries such as new energy and AI data centers. The company's core product, aramid paper, generated CNY 227 million in revenue, accounting for 95.45% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 41.91% [17][18] - The company has successfully launched a new production line for aramid paper, increasing its theoretical capacity from 3,000 tons to 4,500 tons. The new line is expected to enhance cost advantages and market share [18]

今年（2025 年）前六个月美元一直走弱，但 7 月份出现了一些温和的反弹。 我们认为这次反弹主要是由于投资者对美元的头寸非常空头，技术上容易出现 反弹。此外，美国就业市场数据表现强劲，非农就业人数好于预期，Jolts 和 jobless claims 等数据也表明美国经济保持韧性。然而，我们预计这些因素最 终会随时间而消退。我们对今年（2025 年）美国 GDP 的预测非常看空，预计 年底 GDP 增长可能只有大约 30 个基点，在 40%的情况下会出现温和衰退。 因此，我们认为美元将继续走弱。 在美元走弱的背景下，哪些新兴市场货币相对美元会表现最强势？ 我们预计欧元兑美元将在今年（2025 年）年底接近 120，然后上升到 125。 在全球经济增长疲弱、贸易紧张局势打击企业信心的背景下，新兴市场货币整 若通胀大幅上升导致美联储取消降息预期，可能给美元带来上行压力， 对新兴市场收益率产生负面影响。若仅是通胀推动重新考虑美联储政策 路径，且经济增长也在走弱，则降息可能只是推迟。 若美联储维持利率不变，而新兴市场央行继续降息，政策利差缩小将成 为中期风险。收益率相对于美国国债的压缩，加上美元突然升值，可能 使新 ...