Core Viewpoint - The IEA and EIA have lowered their global crude oil demand forecasts for 2025 due to weak demand from the US and China, while geopolitical risks continue to support oil prices [1] Group 1: Demand and Supply Outlook - IEA predicts a loose supply-demand balance in 2025, but geopolitical risks are prominent [1] - OPEC+ increased production by 180,000 barrels per day in May, which is below planned levels, indicating limited actual production capacity [1] - China's "three oil giants" maintain high capital expenditures, with a planned oil and gas production growth of 1.3% to 5.9% by 2025, reinforcing energy security [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks and Market Impact - The escalation of the US's involvement in the Israel-Palestine conflict has intensified the situation, leading to fluctuations in Brent and WTI crude oil prices [1] - The risk of transportation through the Strait of Hormuz has increased, with a potential closure impacting 34% of global maritime oil exports, resulting in a 72% weekly increase in BDTI shipping rates [1] - The valuation of oil shipping is expected to rise due to these geopolitical tensions [1] Group 3: Industry Performance and Investment Opportunities - The medium to long-term outlook for crude oil supply and demand remains positive, with recovering chemical demand and capacity clearing benefiting leading refining and coal chemical companies' profitability [1] - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the oil and gas sector [1] - The index focuses on the oil and natural gas industry, exhibiting high industry concentration and cyclical characteristics, effectively representing the overall market trends of the oil and gas industry chain [1]

2025 年 6 月 23 日 原油：强势或未结束，多单持有 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 【国际原油】 WTI7 月原油期货收跌 0.21 美元/桶，跌幅 2.80%，报 74.93 美元/桶；布伦特 8 月原油期货收 跌 1.84 美元/桶，跌幅 2.33%，报 77.01 美元/桶；SC2508 原油期货收跌 4.40 元/桶，跌幅 0.77%， 报 568.40 元/桶。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强， -2 表示最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 【趋势强度】 原油趋势强度：1 期货研究 国泰君安期货有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）具有中国证监会核准的期货投资咨询业务资格（证监许 可[2011]1449号）。 1. 摩根大通：在包括霍尔木兹海峡封锁在内的更大范围地区冲突极端情况下，油价可能飙升至每 桶 120 至 130 美元。 2. 市场消息：伊朗议会批准关闭霍尔木兹海峡，但最高 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 06 月 23 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3359.90 | -0.07 | | 深证成指 | 10005.03 | -0.47 | | 创业板指 | 2009.89 | -0.83 | | 科创 50 | 957.87 | -0.53 | | 北证 50 | 1347.46 | -1.34 | | 沪深 300 | 3846.64 | 0.09 | A 股市场概览 | 类别 | 总市值 | 流通市 | 市盈率 | 市净率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (亿元) | 值(亿元) | PE | PB | | 上证指数 | 653138 | 506006 | 12.03 | 1.25 | | 深证成指 | 220912 | 180485 | 19.58 | 2.07 | | 创业板指 | 56764 | 44868 | 26.38 | 3.68 | | 科创 50 | 33281 | 21936 | 52.00 | 4.00 | | 北证 ...

布伦特原油大幅高开后涨幅收窄，目前报79.66美元。涨幅约3.4%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, with a price forecast of $66 per barrel for 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The report indicates a trend towards a looser supply-demand balance for crude oil in 2025, with the EIA projecting a global oil supply surplus of approximately 820,000 barrels per day this year [4][19]. - The report highlights that the upstream sector is showing signs of recovery, with drilling day rates expected to increase as global capital expenditures rise [4][21]. - The refining sector is experiencing improved profitability due to rising product price spreads, although current levels remain low [4][21]. - The polyester sector is underperforming, with PTA and polyester filament profits declining, but a gradual improvement is anticipated as new capacities come online [4][21]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $77.01 per barrel, a 3.75% increase week-on-week, while WTI futures rose by 1.18% to $73.84 per barrel [4][25]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased to 421 million barrels, down 11.47 million barrels from the previous week, marking a 10% decline compared to the same period last year [4][27]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products increased to $11.58 per barrel, up $6.18 from the previous week [4]. - The report notes that while refining product spreads have improved, they remain at low levels, with expectations for gradual enhancement as economic recovery progresses [4][21]. Polyester Sector - The report states that PTA prices have turned from decline to increase, with the average price in East China reaching 5,084 RMB per ton, a 4.69% increase week-on-week [4]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry is described as average, with a need to monitor demand changes closely [4][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, as well as upstream service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering [4][21][22]. - It also suggests that the polyester sector may see long-term improvements, advocating for investments in leading companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [4][21][22].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货原油周报 地缘风波再起，打开油价上涨空间 20250622 黄秀仕 交易咨询号：Z0018307 从业资格号：F03106904 0769-22110802 审核：陈小国 交易咨询号：Z0021111 周度观点及策略 周度观点 ◆ 库存：当周美国商业原油库存下降，但汽油和馏分油库存增加。美国原油库存下降1150万桶，该降幅为自2024年6月28日当周以来最大，此前市场预期为减少180万 桶。当周美国原油库存为4.209亿桶，为自1月以来最低水平。美国战略石油储备(SPR)增加20万桶，至4.023亿桶。美国库欣的原油库存减少995.000桶。美国汽油库 存增加209,000桶，至2.300亿桶，此前市场预期为增加60万桶。美国包括柴油和取暖油的馏分油库存增加514,000桶，至1.094亿桶，此前市场预期为增加40万桶。 当周美国原油净进口量减少175万桶/日，美国原油出口量增加110万桶/日至440万桶/日。 ◆ 供应：受到地缘因素影响，伊朗300万桶/日的原油供应可能受到威胁，同时市场担忧霍尔木兹海峡通航受阻，涉及1600万桶/日的原油供给；上 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货油脂周报 美生柴政策利好影响还未消退 油脂短期或震荡偏强 20250622 邓丹 交易咨询号：Z0011401 从业资格号：F0300922 0769-22111252 审核：陈小国 从业资格号：F03100622 交易咨询号：Z0021111 周度观点及策略 基本面观点 产业链结构 产业链结构 ◆ 总的来看，在原油强势以及美国生柴政策利好的情况下，油脂短期或震荡偏强。 ◆ 豆油方面，未来一周爱荷华、明尼苏达州一带有比较明显的降雨，玉米带东部以及密苏里州等区域则没什么 降雨；第二周中西部各地雨势比较一般，堪萨斯等大平原中北部一带气温也比较高。总体看，未来大半个月 中西部主产区大部分区域的雨势不太有利于大豆生长。 ◆ 棕榈油方面，SPPOMA数据显示，2025年6月1-15日马棕产量减少4%。ITS和Amspec数据显示，马来西亚6月1-20 日棕榈油出口量较上月同期出口增加14.31%和10.88%。6月的马棕产量小幅下降，同时出口数据大幅增加，利 好棕榈油。 ◆ 菜油方面，近期国内菜油库存有所下降，但仍处于历史同期高位，供应充足，后期国内菜籽进口 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年6月22日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | 进出口 | | | 炼厂开工 | 国内外燃料油需求数据 | 全球燃料油现货库存 | 亚太区域现货FOB价格 | 国内燃料油进出口数据 | | | 全球炼厂检修 | | | 欧洲区域现货FOB价格 | 全球高硫燃料油进出口数据 | | | 国内炼厂产量与商品量 | | | 美国地区燃料油现货价格 | 全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 | | | | | | 纸货与衍生品价格 燃料油现货价差 | | | | | | | 全球燃料油裂解价差 | | | | | | | 全球燃料油纸货月差 | | Special report on Guot ...

国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·首席分析师、能源化工组行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 日期：2025年6月22日 GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：高位震荡，或仍有机 | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | 会挑战85美元/桶 | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 2 观点综述 01 观点综述：高位震荡，或仍有机会挑战8 ...

WTI原油期货涨超0.2%，报73.66美元/桶。 一名官员称，目前并没有关于欧洲多国与伊朗讨论核问题的进一步安排。 ...