Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is expected to soon highlight employment data, emphasizing that job growth has exceeded economists' predictions for the fourth consecutive time [1] Group 1 - Analyst Chris Anstey notes that the economic team will point out that various indicators have proven to be better than widely expected, including moderate inflation and robust job growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is currently conducting a routine review of its monetary policy strategy, with significant attention on the outcomes due to past controversies surrounding similar reviews [1][2]. Group 1: Review Focus Areas - The review will focus on the "long-term goals and monetary policy strategy statement" and communication tools [1]. - The results of the review are expected to be announced by late summer, with hints provided during a recent meeting led by Powell [1]. Group 2: Potential Changes in Strategy - Goldman Sachs economists predict that the review may lead to a softening of the "flexible average inflation targeting" policy established in late 2020 [1]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may reaffirm its response to "dual deviations" from maximum employment during normal times, potentially downplaying the term "shortfall" [2]. - There is a possibility of reverting to "flexible inflation targeting" as the primary strategy, while retaining the option for a "compensatory strategy" under certain conditions [2]. Group 3: Implications of Inflation Dynamics - Critics argue that the current strategy may have contributed to high inflation during the pandemic, although Powell and senior economists disagree [2]. - The implementation of the "flexible average inflation targeting" policy coincided with unique global economic shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which have complicated inflation dynamics [2][3]. Group 4: Communication Strategy Adjustments - Adjustments to the Fed's communication strategy may have more significant implications than the informal abandonment of the "flexible average inflation targeting" policy [4]. - Two specific suggestions for enhancing communication include providing alternative economic scenarios to highlight risks and linking FOMC officials' economic and interest rate forecasts while maintaining anonymity [5].

美国就业市场持稳，美联储或推迟至9月再重启降息 金十数据7月3日讯，美国6月就业市场表现稳健，非农就业人数增加14.7万人，高于5月修正后的14.4万 人；失业率意外下降至4.1%，经济学家此前预计将微升至4.3%。该报告表明劳动力市场保持稳定，这 可能使美联储将重启降息的时间推迟至9月。尽管就业增长超预期，但增速正在放缓，主要反映出招聘 活动疲软。裁员仍然相当低，在新冠大流行期间和之后，雇主普遍囤积工人，因为他们很难找到劳动 力。包括首次申请失业救济人数和领取失业金人数在内的多项指标显示，在经历了保护经济免于衰退的 强劲表现后，劳动力市场正显现疲态。当时美联储为对抗高通胀大幅收紧货币政策。 ...

纽约时报经济记者Lydia：有趣的是，州和地方政府依然在强劲扩张，6月共新增了8万个就业岗位。有 可能，自今年1月以来离开联邦政府的6.9万人中，有部分已在州或地方政府找到了工作。 ...

政府部门就业大幅增加 美国6月就业增长超出预期 金十数据7月3日讯，在特朗普呼吁降息之后，美国6月份的就业增长好于预期，劳动力市场表现出了惊 人的韧性。美国劳工统计局周四公布，经季节性因素调整后，当月非农就业人数增加14.7万人，高于预 期的11万人。失业率降至4.1%。就业人数稳步增长、失业率下降，平均时薪环比增长0.2%，同比增长 3.7%，表明通胀压力减弱。政府部门就业人数大幅增加，增幅居所有类别之首，增加了7.3万人，原因 是州政府和地方部门的就业大幅增加，尤其是与教育相关的工作岗位增加。联邦政府仍受到马斯克政府 效率部裁员的影响，损失了7000人。此外，医疗保健也很强劲，增加了3.9万人，而社会援助就业增加 了1.9万人。 ...

非农竞猜"中奖名单"公布 金十数据7月3日讯，美国6月非农就业人口录得14.7万人，好于市场预期，金十非农竞猜活动获奖名单 已公布，请前往活动页面点击"中奖名单"查看： 订阅美国非农动态 +订阅 相关链接 ...

美国劳工统计局：6月份非农就业总人数增加了14.7万人，与过去12个月平均每月增加14.6万人的水平一 致。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. non-farm payroll employment increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing the expected increase of 110,000 [1] - The previous value of non-farm payroll employment was revised from 139,000 to 144,000, indicating a positive adjustment in employment figures [1]

Group 1 - The gap between non-farm payroll employment and ADP employment figures is 180,000, marking the highest level in three years [2]

美国强劲的6月份就业数据公布后，美元指数拉升，一度涨0.6%。 ...