AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 "如果我们的利率比长期均值高出超过一个标准差，为何要在这样的利率水平下行动？"贝森特称。目前 10年期美债收益率约4.26%，而2年期美债收益率为3.73%，12个月期美债收益率为3.81%。 贝森特仍寄望随着通胀放缓，各期限美债收益率将下行。当被问及年底10年期美债收益率预期时，贝森 特表示取决于多重因素，"但随着通胀下降，我认为整个收益率曲线可能平行下移。" 关于美联储主席，贝森特表示，他已经拥有"华盛顿最好的工作"，并透露他"将在未来几周、几个月内 研究鲍威尔的继任者"。他提到已经"考虑过新的美联储委员会成员可能担任主席的想法"，并提到美联 储委员会将在明年1月份出现职位空缺。 贝森特指出，若鲍威尔离职，其理事会任期仅剩两年，同时批评美联储 "似乎停滞不前"。 他说，"我担 心的是，美联储在2022年辜负了美国民众，如今他们只顾盯着脚下，而非展望未来。" 在贸易问题上，贝森特表示，"我们尚未看到关税引发通胀"，且就对消费者价格的影响而言，"没有什 么比进口关税更具暂时性了"，并预计"在7月9日截止日期前的最后一周，将会出现一波贸易协议的密集 签署 ...

Core Viewpoint - The downward momentum of U.S. Treasury yields has slowed, with the 10-year Treasury yield currently reported at 4.269% [1] Group 1 - The 10-year Treasury yield is a key indicator of long-term interest rates and economic expectations [1]

| | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 06. 30) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 (亿 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | 元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 2. 30 | ਜੂੰ | | 5.20 | 300 | 47453. 33 | -4146. 25 | 90.95 | | R007 | 2. 01 | | | 4. 20 | Colo | 4342. 70 | -10412. 12 | 8. 32 | | R014 | 1.88 | | | 2. 35 | -5 | 342. 45 | -231. 12 | 0. 66 | | R1M | 1.86 | | Am | 1.90 | 0 | 2. 10 | 1. 81 | 0.00 | | 汇总 | | | | | | 52175. 19 | -14787. 6 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - Last week, the overall liquidity was balanced, with an upward trend in capital interest rates, a downward trend in certificate of deposit (CD) rates, an upward trend in IRS yields, a downward trend in repurchase trading volume, an upward trend in bill rates, and a downward trend in the US dollar to RMB exchange rate. After the end of the quarter, it is expected that the liquidity will ease and the capital interest rates will decline [1][2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Capital Supply and Demand - Last week, the open - market had 960.3 billion yuan in maturities (all reverse repurchase), and 2327.5 billion yuan in investments (2027.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchase and 300 billion yuan in MLF), with a net investment of 1367.2 billion yuan. The balance of outstanding reverse repurchases increased compared to the previous week [1] - This week, the open - market has 2027.5 billion yuan in capital maturities, all reverse repurchase. After the end of the quarter, it is expected that the liquidity will ease and the capital interest rates will decline [5] Interest Rates - Affected by the end - of - quarter factor, the average DR007 was 1.65%, up 13BP from the previous week; the average R007 was 1.82%, up 24BP from the previous week; the average DR001 and R001 were 1.37% and 1.44% respectively. The average GC007 was 1.92%, up 31BP from the previous week [1] - Last week, the 1 - year FR007 interest rate swap average was 1.54%, up from the previous week. The market's expectation for the liquidity is stable [2] - As of the last trading day of last week, the yield to maturity of 1 - year AAA CDs was 1.64%, down from the previous week. This week, the single - week maturity of CDs is about 245.79 billion yuan, with less maturity pressure than the previous week [2] - Last Friday, the 6M national stock bill transfer quotation was 1.15%, up from the previous week's last trading day [4] Repurchase Market - Last week, the volume of pledged repurchase trading was between 6.6 and 8.5 trillion yuan, and the average volume of R001 repurchase trading was 6.5011 trillion yuan, down 961.1 billion yuan from the previous week. As of the last trading day of last week, the balance of outstanding repurchases was 12.7 trillion yuan, up from the previous week [3] - In terms of institutions, the lending scale of large - scale banks decreased, while that of money market funds increased. The borrowing scales of securities firms and wealth management increased, while that of funds decreased [3] Exchange Rate - Last Friday, the US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.17, slightly down from the previous week, and the Sino - US interest rate spread narrowed [4] This Week's Key Points of Attention - This week, the open - market has 2027.5 billion yuan in capital maturities, all reverse repurchase [5] - On Monday and Tuesday, China's official and Caixin PMI for June will be announced respectively, and on Tuesday, the US ISM manufacturing index for June will be announced. On Thursday, the US unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls change for June will be announced, and the minutes of the Eurozone's monetary policy meeting for June will also be announced [5] - This week, the net maturity of interest - bearing bonds is 6.34 billion yuan [5]

上周债市窄幅震荡，收益率曲线延续陡峭化 ——利率债周报（2025.6.23-2025.6.29） 作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 部门执行总监 冯琳 时间 2025 年 6 月 30 日 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 核心观点 ⚫ 上周债市窄幅震荡，收益率曲线延续陡峭化。上周（6 月 23 日 当周）债市先跌后涨。周一至周三，受中东局势缓和驱动股市 上涨，股债跷跷板效应显现影响，债市偏弱运行；周四，由于 发改委发布会无增量政策落地，市场情绪阶段性修复，债市小 幅回暖。整体上看，上周债市延续窄幅震荡格局，长债收益率 先上后下，整体小幅上行。短端利率方面，虽然临近季末，但 在央行有力"呵护"下，资金面整体较为宽松，推动债市短端 利率继续下行，收益率曲线延续陡峭化。 本周（6月30日当周）债市料延续震荡行情。从基本面来看， 6 月制造业 PMI 指数虽有小幅上升，但仍处于荣枯线下方，显 示基本面在外部环境扰动下继续承压，整体上依然利好债市。 从资金面来看，上周五公布的货币政策委员会二季度例会公告 强调"物价持续低位运行"以及"要实施好适度宽松的货币政 策，加强逆周期调节"，加之近期央行通过多种方式 ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《超长期限：行情还能走多远？——信 用周报 20250625》 - 2025.06.26 固收周报 7 月利率会破新低么？ ——流动性周报 20250629 ⚫ 止盈节奏可能是 7 月交易的胜负手 季末流动性维持宽松，资金价格季节性上行，最后一个工作日"堆 积"效应显著。本季末的跨季进度显著偏慢，6 月最后一个工作日是 周一，"堆积"效应可能带来资金面的波动加剧，但这大概率不会改变 7 月初资金面恢复到更加宽松的状态。相对而言，短端票息品种的表 现随市场情绪波动，同业存单在最后一周的抢跑效应明显减弱，利率 小幅提高，反映季末效应对于存单利率的影响。 长期利率也在抢跑后回到"低波动"状态。6 月最后一周，一方 面，抢跑之后的交易空间逼仄；另一方面，流动性宽松因素季节性减 弱；此外，权益市场情绪的显著修复也通过股债跷板压制债市。故 6 月末，长端利率并未"一鼓作气"，凝聚更多突破式下行的力量，相对 于已经拉长的久期和提高的仓位，交易盘进一步突 ...

Core Insights - The yield spread between Italian and German 10-year government bonds has decreased to 87 basis points, marking the lowest level since 2015 [1] Group 1 - The narrowing yield spread indicates a potential increase in investor confidence in Italian bonds compared to German bonds [1] - This trend may reflect improving economic conditions in Italy or a shift in market sentiment towards riskier assets [1]

意大利-德国10年期国债收益率差降至87个基点，为2015年以来最低。 ...

金十数据6月30日讯，花旗利率策略师在一份报告中表示，在最近的地缘政治紧张局势中，欧元区国债 收益率息差一直保持弹性，预计未来几个月将进一步收窄。他们表示："尽管在即将到来的7月9日关税 截止日期前，风险依然存在，但我们持积极态度，预计多数英国-德国国债的利差在年底前将收紧。"花 旗策略师预计，10年期西班牙-德国公债收益率差将从目前的64个基点收窄至50个基点。他们还预计， 10年期意大利国债与德国国债的收益率差将从89个基点收窄至75个基点。他们表示："这种观点得到了 德国上周宣布的财政刺激计划的支持。" 花旗：欧元区债券收益率差预计将在年底收窄 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 对央行国债买卖重启的预期或需推后 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 今年 6 月中旬以来，债市整体维持震荡，面临关键点位。后续曲线如果继续向下突破，需要更 大的力量推动，可能的路径之一是国债买卖的重启，但我们预计央行国债买卖操作或仍需等待。 央行买入国债可直接补充流动性，对政府债权和政府存款同步增加。但央行持有的短国债到期 后，并不直接带来流动性的收缩，央行预计不急于续作。财政供给节奏来看，8 月和 11 月或为 今年下半年流动性扰动的关键时点，从而预计央行国债买卖操作重启或最早要等到 8 月左右。 近期建议 10 年期国债收益率 1.65%附近逢调配置，若回落到 1.6%需要关注回调风险。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 对央行国债买卖重启的预期或需推后 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 今年 6 月中旬以来，债市整体维 ...