Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices experienced volatility this week, reaching a high of $3500 per ounce before retreating due to a stronger dollar and profit-taking [2][3][4] - Trump's comments regarding interest rates and tariffs influenced market sentiment, initially boosting gold prices but later leading to a correction as trade tensions eased [3][6] - The uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies contributed to fluctuations in gold prices, with mixed signals from Fed officials [5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The recent price action suggests that gold is in a corrective phase after reaching the $3500 peak, with key support at $3260 and resistance at $3370/3371 [10][12][14] - If gold breaks above $3370/3371, it may indicate a continuation of the upward trend, while a drop below $3260 could signal a more significant downward movement [12][14] Group 3: Upcoming Events - The upcoming week will feature significant economic data releases, including non-farm payrolls, Q1 GDP, and PCE inflation data, which are expected to impact gold prices [9]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials, particularly Kashkari, emphasize the importance of making decisions based on data, highlighting the significance of independence in policy-making [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is focused on making the most reasonable decisions based on available data [1] - Kashkari's statement reflects the commitment of Federal Reserve policymakers to uphold their independence in decision-making [1]

智通财经4月23日电，美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特表示，特朗普认为美联储的政策行动是出于政治动机， 特朗普有权表达对美联储的不满。特朗普希望利率降低，特朗普希望美元继续保持世界储备货币地位。 ...

点击蓝字，关注我们 唐纳德·特朗普总统呼吁美联储主席降息，越来越多迹象显示其贸易战正将美国经济推向衰退边 缘。受此影响，美股大幅下跌，美元与长期国债价格走低。 智通财经APP获悉，唐纳德·特朗普总统呼吁美联储主席降息，与此同时，越来越多迹象显示其 贸易 战正将美国经济推向衰退边缘 。受此影响， 美股大幅下跌，美元与长期国债价格走低，黄金价格则 逆势上涨。 昨夜标普500指数收盘下跌2.4%，纳斯达克100指数跌幅达2.5%，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(Cboe VIX)徘徊在34左右。特斯拉股价在周二盘后财报发布前暴跌5.7%;沙拉连锁餐厅Sweetgreen(SG.US)宣 布首席运营官离职后，股价下跌8.2%。 特朗普对鲍威尔的最新施压，再次引发市场对总统干预美联储政策的担忧。 自上周以来，特朗普的 一系列抨击，让人们开始质疑美联储能否保持政治独立性——而这种独立性正是美国金融市场信心的 基石。与此同时， 美联储青睐的通胀指标最新数据仍高于目标水平。 在财报季，特朗普反复无常的贸易政策令市场愈发紧张不安，财报发布高峰也于周二正式开启。许多 公司已经下调或取消了年度业绩预期，分析师们也在匆忙下调对美国大型企 ...

Group 1 - President Trump is calling for the Federal Reserve Chairman to lower interest rates, amid signs that the trade war is pushing the U.S. economy towards recession [1][2] - The S&P 500 index closed down 2.4%, and the Nasdaq 100 index fell by 2.5%, indicating significant market declines [1][3] - Many companies have lowered or canceled their annual performance forecasts, leading analysts to hastily adjust their earnings growth predictions for large U.S. companies [1][5] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index has dropped 9% since Trump announced significant tariffs on most U.S. trading partners, with a total decline of 16% from its February peak [3][5] - Earnings expectations for S&P 500 constituents are at a rare low, close to extreme levels seen outside of recession periods [5] - The upcoming earnings reports from major companies like Tesla, Alphabet, Boeing, and Intel are crucial for assessing the impact of tariffs and economic slowdown [4][5]

关税博弈主导预期走势，特朗普与美联储的矛盾持续激化。 特朗普关税政策转向缓和，不仅对除中国以外国家暂缓关税90天，而且公开表示将在3-4周内与中国达成协 议。美国经济继续处于非典型转冷状态。一方面，居民部门动能大幅衰减，消费活动濒临收缩。另一方面，企 业部门表现依然稳健，与"劳工荒"共同支撑就业市场。特朗普与美联储矛盾持续激化。考虑到就业市场并未显 著转冷，叠加关税引发的再通胀担忧，以鲍威尔为首的多数美联储官员态度继续偏鹰，对降息持高度谨慎态 度。然而，特朗普团队希望美联储大幅降息以减轻财政付息压力，并激活私人投资，将美国经济从政府驱动转 向私人驱动模式，双方因而爆发激烈冲突，特朗普持续炮轰鲍威尔及美联储。 前瞻地看，特朗普解雇鲍威尔的概率极低，"鹰派"将继续主导美联储政策，以理事沃勒为首的少数鸽派亦难掌 握话语权。预计美联储年内将降息2次50bp，以对冲财政退坡及政策不确定性对企业投资的可能冲击。 境外市场在受到特朗普关税政策的巨大冲击后，本周波动略有降低。美债利率小幅回落至4.3%，美元、人民 币窄幅震荡，黄金继续上涨突破3,300美金。 美股本周下跌，主要因美国对中国芯片出口限制及美联储的态度低于预期。 ...

金丰来认为，尽管市场在短期内可能会出现波动，但从长期来看，投资者应关注防御性板块和避险资产。黄金作为一种避险资产，其价格 在近期创下新高，显示出市场对避险需求的增加。此外，金丰来建议投资者关注那些受贸易政策影响较小的行业，如公用事业和医疗保健 等防御性板块。 金丰来总结认为，当前市场的不确定性主要来源于贸易政策和美联储的政策调整。投资者在当前环境下应保持谨慎，关注市场动态，合理 调整投资组合，以应对可能出现的市场波动。 金丰来认为，贸易政策的不确定性对市场产生了显著影响。特别是关税政策的调整，使得市场参与者对经济增长前景感到担忧。这种不确 定性不仅影响了股票市场，还导致美元汇率波动，投资者纷纷寻求避险资产。例如，近期亚洲股市在美联储主席鲍威尔警告经济增长放缓 和通胀上升风险后出现波动。市场对美国贸易政策的不确定性保持高度关注，这使得投资者在决策时更加谨慎。 金丰来进一步分析，美联储的政策调整也对市场产生了重要影响。鲍威尔表示，美联储将等待更多经济数据来决定是否调整利率。这种谨 慎态度反映了美联储在应对潜在经济疲软和通胀压力之间的平衡难题。市场分析人士认为，美联储目前处于两难境地，因为关税政策可能 导致通胀上升 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：政策的影响可能会使美联储偏离其预期目标。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The depreciation of the RMB is under significant pressure due to the ongoing US-China trade war and Federal Reserve policies, marking the largest strain since the 2008 financial crisis [1][4]. Impact on Import Costs - The depreciation of the RMB against the USD directly increases the import costs of commodities such as oil and iron ore, with a 1% depreciation leading to a cost increase of 0.8-1.2% [4]. - In 2024, China's reliance on foreign oil is projected to reach 73%, resulting in a 15% year-on-year increase in procurement costs for energy companies, which will compress profit margins in sectors like petrochemicals and aviation [4]. - High-tech product imports, including chips and precision instruments, will also see a cost increase, with companies like SMIC facing a 12% rise in procurement costs for technical equipment [4]. Inflationary Pressures - The depreciation of the RMB is expected to cause the food and consumer goods import price index to rise by 6.3%, with essential items like beef and milk powder experiencing price increases of up to 9.8% [5]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China is projected to rise by 3.5% year-on-year in 2024, exceeding the central bank's 3% warning line, complicating monetary policy balancing between growth and inflation control [6]. Debt Implications - The depreciation of the RMB increases the repayment costs for companies and local governments with foreign debt, with a 5% depreciation translating to an additional $140 billion in debt servicing costs for the $2.8 trillion foreign debt [8][9]. - Real estate companies, such as Country Garden and Vanke, are particularly affected, with the proportion of dollar-denominated debt interest payments rising from 12% to 19%, exacerbating cash flow challenges [9]. Capital Outflow Risks - Continuous RMB depreciation poses risks of capital outflow, as foreign investment may decline and domestic capital may seek higher returns in USD-denominated assets, especially given the current high US Federal Reserve interest rates [10]. Export Dynamics - While RMB depreciation theoretically enhances export competitiveness, it may lead to a reliance on low-end manufacturing, with high-tech product export share declining by 2.3 percentage points to 28.7% in 2024 [11]. - The withdrawal of foreign R&D centers and a shift in investment towards Southeast Asia by companies like BMW and Tesla indicate a potential decline in foreign investment attractiveness due to currency volatility [11]. Structural Changes and Future Outlook - Historical trends suggest that significant currency adjustments often accompany industrial upgrades, and the current low point of the RMB may represent a pivotal moment for China to advance beyond the middle-income trap and into higher value chains [12]. - Short-term challenges are anticipated as the economy adjusts to these changes, necessitating innovation and a robust domestic supply chain to enhance resilience against external shocks [12][13].

有色金属日报 2025-4-14 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 上周铜价大幅下探后回升，伦铜周涨 5.68%至 9184 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 75710 元/吨。产业 层面，上周三大交易所库存环比减少 3.4 万吨，其中上期所库存减少 4.3 至 18.3 万吨，LME 库存减 少 0.2 至 20.9 万吨，COMEX 库存增加 1.1 至 10.6 万吨。上海保税区库存增加 0.1 万吨。当周铜现 货进口盈亏冲高回落，洋 ...