有着"中国铝土矿之乡"之称的贵州省清镇市，是我国西南地区重要的铝产品原材料基地。2023年度新一轮找矿突破战略行动以来，贵州省有色金 属和核工业地质勘查局一总队在清镇探获的铝土矿资源量超过全省新增铝土矿资源量一半以上，其中，在清镇市汪家寨地区取得黔中地区铝土矿 找矿近30年来的重大突破。 经过近一年的艰苦努力，坞铅勘查区探获一处煤炭大型矿床，可采煤层9层。经普查阶段勘查，无论是地质构造的稳定性，还是煤炭资源总量，均 满足进一步勘查开发的需求，可保障地方电煤供应，实现资源的"找转用"。 汪家寨项目负责人刘添益说，过去黔中地区找铝土矿，主要在600米以浅的区域寻找，经过多年找矿工作，区域内有露头显示的铝土矿几乎没有 了。现在找矿主要通过"攻深找盲"，寻找埋藏较深的隐伏矿床，需要地质技术人员打破传统思维，勇敢创新。 "通过汪家寨项目的实施，我们发现600米以深区域，不仅有矿，还有富矿。"刘添益说，通过收集黔中地区大量地质测量资料，对3700多个钻孔资 料建模分析，精细地挖掘与提取找矿信息，结合古沉积环境及区域成矿规律进行综合研究，运用"智能预测+地球物理"测量定位，实施深部钻探来 验证探矿体。 功夫不负有心人。在汪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market has undergone significant adjustments since 2022, with average national housing prices dropping approximately 30%, and declines in some third and fourth-tier cities exceeding 50% [1] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The initial price corrections began in second and third-tier cities, with first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen joining the trend in 2023 [1] - Experts predict that by 2030, housing prices could increase to four to five times their current levels, driven by factors such as excessive money supply, favorable government policies, and anticipated economic growth [1] Group 2: Counterarguments to Price Predictions - The likelihood of housing prices quadrupling or quintupling in the next five years is considered extremely low due to the ongoing long-term downward trend in prices [3] - Achieving a fivefold increase in housing prices by 2030 would require annual doubling, which is deemed nearly impossible [3] - Economic growth and money supply do not guarantee rising housing prices, as the market is currently experiencing significant bubbles and investment risks [3] Group 3: Factors Supporting Price Stabilization - Residents' income levels are insufficient to support high housing prices, with many facing reduced incomes and cautious future income expectations [4] - There is an oversupply of housing in the market, with approximately 6 billion existing homes, enough to accommodate 30 billion people, leading to a long-term supply-demand imbalance [4] - The construction of affordable housing is accelerating, which will further alleviate housing supply pressures and help regulate the market [5] Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - Considering macroeconomic conditions, purchasing power, and housing supply, the potential for significant price increases in the next five years is very low, with a likelihood of continued adjustments towards rationality [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, anticipating a slowdown in economic growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate [1][3]. Economic Forecast - The Federal Reserve projects that by the end of 2025, economic growth will significantly slow down, inflation will rise, and the unemployment rate will slightly increase [5]. - The core inflation rate is expected to reach 3.1% this year, up from the previous forecast of 2.8%, and will decline to 2.4% by 2026 and further to 2.1% by 2027 [6]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.5% in 2025, higher than the previous estimate of 4.4%, and is expected to remain at 4.5% until 2026, with a slight decrease to 4.4% in 2027 [6]. - The GDP growth forecast has been downgraded, with an expected annual growth rate of 1.4% for this year, 1.6% for 2026, and 1.8% for 2027 [6][7]. Interest Rate Predictions - The latest "dot plot" indicates that the number of officials who do not expect any rate cuts this year has increased from 4 to 7, reflecting a more cautious stance [8]. - Among the 19 Federal Reserve officials, 8 support two rate cuts this year, while 7 believe there should be no cuts, 2 support one cut, and 2 advocate for three cuts [8]. Economic Uncertainty - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell cautioned against over-reliance on interest rate predictions, emphasizing that forecasts may change based on incoming data, particularly inflation data [10]. - Powell highlighted the high level of uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment and stated that the Federal Reserve is willing to "wait and see" for more information before making any policy adjustments [10].

6月会议还发布了对通胀、失业率和经济增长的预期。 | Variable | | | Median1 | | | Central Tendency2 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | Longer | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | Longer | 2025 | 2026 | | | | | | run | | | | run | | | | Change in real GDP | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2-1.5 | 1.5-1.8 | 1.7-2.0 | 1.7-2.0 | 1.1-2.1 | 0.6-2. | | March projection | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.5-1.9 | 1.6-1.9 | 1.6-2.0 | 1.7-2.0 | 1.0-2.4 | 0.6-2. | | Unemployment rate | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：我们会尽最大努力做出最准确的预测。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：人们正在预测最有可能的利率路径，或者说可能性最低的路径。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：今天我们就改善沟通方式进行了高度讨论，包括对经济预测摘要的调整，秋季将就 沟通方式的调整进行更详细的讨论。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that as more data becomes available, the discrepancies in interest rate forecasts will narrow [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring economic data to adjust its interest rate predictions [1] - Powell emphasized the importance of data in shaping future monetary policy decisions [1] - The statement suggests potential shifts in interest rate strategies based on upcoming economic indicators [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the differences in interest rate paths among officials reflect the diversity of economic forecasts, including inflation [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔表示，终有一天美联储会变得更加有信心，可能会达到一个适合降息的位置；没有人 对利率路径的预测抱有很大信心，可以为预测中的任何利率路径提供合理的理由。 ...