2025 年 7 月 11 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 白银、工业硅、多晶硅期货将震荡偏 强 螺纹钢、铁矿石、焦煤、玻璃期货将偏强震荡 原油期货 将震荡偏弱 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2509 阻力位 4000 和 4028 点，支撑位 3972 和 3952 点；IH2509 阻力位 2765 和 2780 点，支撑位 2740 和 2724 点；IC2509 阻力位 5900 和 5960 点，支撑位 5850 和 5823 点；IM250 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing savings behavior of young people in China, particularly in the context of low interest rates and the search for better investment alternatives. It highlights a shift towards increased savings and a preference for low to medium-risk investments among younger generations [4][5][35]. Group 1: Savings Trends - In a recent survey, approximately 30% of respondents reported savings exceeding 500,000 yuan, with 12.3% of the post-2000 generation having savings over 300,000 yuan [6][8]. - The median savings amount reported in the survey is between 200,000 to 300,000 yuan, with the post-1985 generation showing the highest proportion of savings over 300,000 yuan [12][10]. - The survey indicates that 38.8% of respondents save more than half of their monthly salary, with a significant portion of the younger generation planning to increase their savings rate in the future [19][21]. Group 2: Investment Preferences - Respondents showed a preference for bank deposits, money market funds, and bonds, with younger individuals favoring more liquid options like money market funds due to their accessibility and slightly higher returns [14][27]. - Higher income individuals tend to diversify their investments more, with those earning over 500,000 yuan selecting an average of 3.6 investment options compared to 2.6 for those earning under 100,000 yuan [17][25]. - The article notes a trend where younger generations are more inclined to increase low to medium-risk investments, while older generations are more likely to reduce consumption, particularly in discretionary spending [25][35]. Group 3: Economic Context - The article references macroeconomic data showing that household savings in China increased by 8.3 trillion yuan in the first five months of the year, with a record high of 74.29% of household deposits being time deposits [22][27]. - The current interest rates for one-year fixed deposits have dropped to 0.95%, prompting individuals to seek higher returns through alternative savings and investment methods [30][27]. - The article suggests that the cautious approach to savings and investments among young people is influenced by their experiences and expectations shaped by economic conditions [36][37].

Core Viewpoint - The event on July 8, 2023, marked the 13th National Insurance Publicity Day, focusing on the theme "Love and Responsibility, Insurance Makes Life Better" to enhance public awareness of insurance and financial literacy [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The event was organized by the China Insurance Industry Association and aimed to promote insurance services and financial knowledge in rural areas, specifically in Jiuji Village, Zibo City [1][3] - Activities included setting up service consultation booths, hanging promotional banners, and distributing informative materials to educate villagers about insurance [3] Group 2: Financial Knowledge Promotion - The event emphasized the core values of insurance, including risk protection, economic compensation, and life stability, particularly focusing on health and pension insurance products relevant to villagers [3][5] - Financial literacy was promoted using simple language and relatable examples, covering basic financial concepts, savings, and rational investment ideas to help villagers manage their finances effectively [5] Group 3: Risk Prevention and Awareness - A special segment on fraud prevention was included, addressing common scams in rural areas, especially targeting the elderly, and providing tips on recognizing and avoiding such scams [5] - The event highlighted the dangers of the "agent refund" black market, warning villagers about potential loss of coverage and financial harm, and encouraged them to consult official channels for insurance matters [5][7] Group 4: Community Impact and Future Plans - The initiative fostered a better understanding of insurance functions and financial risk awareness among villagers, contributing to a supportive environment for financial literacy [7] - The company plans to continue its efforts in grassroots engagement, aiming to enhance public financial literacy and support local economic development and rural revitalization [7]

Group 1: Overview of the US Stock Market - The US stock market includes major trading venues such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Nasdaq Stock Market, with NYSE being known for its strict listing standards and traditional large enterprises, while Nasdaq is oriented towards technology and innovation companies [1] - Trading hours for these markets are generally from 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM Eastern Time, which corresponds to nighttime in Beijing, requiring investors to monitor market dynamics during the night [1] - Different exchanges have varying rules and requirements regarding the qualifications of listed companies and information disclosure [1] Group 2: Choosing a Suitable US Brokerage - Investors need to select a brokerage that offers US stock trading services, considering factors such as trading fees and commission policies, which can vary significantly among brokerages [2] - The commission structure may include charges based on the number of trades or a percentage of the transaction amount, and understanding the trading platform's functionality is essential for ease of use [2] - The security of the brokerage is crucial, necessitating verification of regulatory oversight by legitimate financial authorities to ensure the safety of investors' funds [2] Group 3: Basic Investment Knowledge and Analysis Methods - Investors should understand fundamental concepts of stocks, such as ownership certificates issued by corporations, which grant shareholders certain rights [3] - Key financial metrics like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and price-to-book (P/B) ratio are important for assessing stock price rationality and company valuation [3] - Fundamental analysis focuses on detailed examination of financial statements, including revenue, profit growth, and balance sheet health, while technical analysis involves studying historical price and volume data to predict future price movements [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy and Risk Control - Developing an investment strategy is critical, tailored to individual financial situations, investment goals, and risk tolerance, with strategies varying significantly based on risk preferences [4] - For those with lower risk tolerance, a conservative investment strategy focusing on stability and cash flow returns is advisable, while higher risk tolerance may lead to pursuing higher return strategies [4] - Setting stop-loss and take-profit points is an effective method for controlling risk, regardless of the chosen investment strategy [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-07-11 品种晨会纪要 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 产油国大幅增产，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 核心逻辑：由于中东地缘风险仍旧存在，原油溢价有所提升。在经历前期大幅回落以后，油市多头 信心再度增强，地缘溢价有所反弹。随着北半球夏季用油旺季到来，原油需求因子发力。不过近期 OPEC 和非 OPEC 产油国中的 8 个主要产油国决定 8 月增产 54.8 万桶/日 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guangyunda (光韵达) is seeking cross-border mergers and acquisitions to enter the communication equipment manufacturing sector after reporting its first loss in 14 years. The company plans to acquire 56.03% of Yilian Infinite Technology (亿联无限) for 352 million yuan, down from an initial intention to acquire 100% [2][9]. Financial Performance - Guangyunda reported a decline in net profit from 91.54 million yuan in 2021 to a loss of 27.37 million yuan in 2024, marking a continuous decline in profitability [9]. - Yilian Infinite's net profit dropped from 84.17 million yuan in 2022 to 28.67 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a significant decrease in performance [4][6]. Acquisition Details - The acquisition price for Yilian Infinite was set at 352 million yuan, with an overall valuation of 628 million yuan, which is significantly lower than its previous IPO valuation of 1.47 billion yuan [3][4]. - The decision to reduce the acquisition stake from 100% to 56.03% was made to lower financial costs and mitigate operational uncertainties associated with Yilian Infinite's declining performance [2][8]. Risks and Challenges - Yilian Infinite faces multiple risks, including a significant drop in performance post-IPO withdrawal and issues related to a second shareholder's legal troubles [7][8]. - The company also has to deal with potential financial penalties related to a land purchase that was intended for IPO fundraising but is now under negotiation for termination [7][8]. Strategic Intent - Guangyunda aims to leverage the acquisition to expand its presence in the electronic manufacturing supply chain and explore new profit growth opportunities in overseas markets [9]. - The company has previously engaged in two cross-border acquisitions, but the performance of those subsidiaries has not met expectations, indicating challenges in integrating new businesses [10].

Core Viewpoint - The investigation into Zhao Peng, a senior executive at Dajia Insurance Group, highlights significant governance challenges within financial risk management institutions, following the earlier case of Fu Fei, another executive involved in similar misconduct [1][4]. Group 1: Zhao Peng Incident - Zhao Peng, previously a prominent figure in the financial sector, is under investigation for alleged misconduct in deposit operations, including manipulating fund flows and accepting kickbacks [6][4]. - His background includes a law doctorate and roles in regulatory bodies, raising concerns about the integrity of regulatory oversight [4][5]. - As of July 2025, there have been no official updates regarding the investigation's progress, and Zhao remains unaccounted for [1]. Group 2: Fu Fei Case - Fu Fei, former deputy head of the Anbang takeover team, was convicted for corruption, including transferring assets below market value and accepting bribes [2][3]. - The court found that he misused his position to facilitate transactions that benefited specific companies, leading to significant financial losses [2]. Group 3: Governance and Oversight Issues - The dual compensation structure for Zhao Peng, who held positions in both banking and insurance, raises concerns about conflicts of interest and inadequate oversight mechanisms [8][9]. - The transition of regulatory figures into operational roles has exposed weaknesses in self-regulation and market accountability [10][11][12]. Group 4: Regulatory Responses - In April 2025, the Insurance Guarantee Fund implemented measures to enhance oversight, including appointing a special supervisory group to review major financial decisions [13]. - New regulations introduced by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission aim to address systemic risks and improve governance structures [20][21]. Group 5: Financial Performance and Challenges - Dajia Insurance has faced significant operational challenges, including a six-year gap in annual report disclosures and a high vacancy rate in its healthcare services [16][14]. - Despite some positive indicators in premium income and profitability, the company struggles with investment performance, showing negative returns on certain funds [18]. Group 6: Market Position and Future Outlook - Dajia Insurance's privatization efforts have stalled, with previous attempts to transfer ownership failing and ongoing discussions yielding no substantial results [22][23]. - The company must address historical liabilities and governance issues to attract potential investors and ensure a successful transition to a more robust governance framework [23].

Group 1: Core Insights - The article highlights the risks and challenges associated with the contribution of intangible assets in the process of overseas listing for companies [2] - It emphasizes the need for companies to be aware of the potential legal and tax implications arising from the overvaluation of intangible assets [4][8] Group 2: Assessment Risks - There is a risk of inflated valuations of intangible assets, which can lead to legal liabilities for shareholders if the actual value is lower than the assessed value [5] - Assessment institutions may also face legal consequences if their evaluations are found to be inaccurate, as they are responsible for the accuracy of their reports [6] Group 3: Tax Risks - Personal income tax implications arise when shareholders contribute intangible assets, with a 20% tax on capital gains from the transfer of such assets [8] - Corporate income tax benefits can be affected by the overvaluation of intangible assets, leading to potential tax liabilities and penalties if discrepancies are identified by tax authorities [9] - Value-added tax (VAT) treatment varies based on the classification of intangible assets, with potential exemptions for technology-related assets if conditions are met [10] Group 4: Recommendations - Companies are advised to select reputable assessment institutions and establish internal review mechanisms to ensure fair valuations of intangible assets [12] - It is recommended to include liability clauses in contracts with assessment institutions to mitigate risks associated with inaccurate evaluations [12]

据河南发布，7月10日，河南省委书记刘宁、省长王凯在郑州会见中国证监会党委书记、主席吴清一行。 吴清感谢河南省委、省政府对中国证监会工作的大力支持。他表示，中国证监会将坚决贯彻落实党中央、国务 院决策部署，坚持稳中求进、以进促稳，立足自身职能，结合地方所需，进一步全面深化资本市场改革，完善 制度和产品供给，充分发挥多层次市场功能，在助力科技创新与产业创新深度融合、提高上市公司质量、防控 金融风险、拓展期货市场服务广度深度、支持乡村振兴和对口帮扶等方面与地方加强沟通合作，为河南落实国 家战略和高质量发展提供有力金融支撑。 来源：河南发布 责编：王璐璐 校对： 祝甜婷 百万用户都在看 重大利好！暴增1883%！ 红海，突发！击沉！ 刚刚，大涨100%！周杰伦，彻底引爆！ 重大转变！特朗普，突然宣布！ 事关降息！美联储，重磅传来！ 违法和不良信息举报电话：0755-83514034 邮箱：bwb@stcn.com ...

聚乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚乙烯 | 7100-7500 | 14.45% | 34.0% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚乙烯套保策略表 近日在宏观情绪和焦煤价格的推动下，聚烯烃盘面上行。从基本面看，PE同样存在向上驱动。一方面是其供给端压力得到边际缓解：1）当前PE 装置检修依然较多，开工率处于低位，预计集中检修季将持续至7月中旬；2）由于HDPE-LLDPE的价差持续处于高位，部分全密度装置由LLDPE 转产HDPE，给标品LLDPE供给带来边际缩量，与此同时，虽然HDPE供给量有所增加，但由于其当前但供需情况较好，库存处于极低水平，短期 内HDPE市场尚能够消化转产所带来的供给压力；3）先前的以伊冲突导致伊朗聚烯烃装置出停工的情况，虽然目前已逐步恢复，但预计7-8月的 PE进口仍将因此出现小幅 ...