Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Insights - Powell's unexpected shift towards "early rate cuts" after a hawkish signal just six days prior indicates potential changes in monetary policy direction[2] - The number of Fed members opposing rate cuts increased from 4 to 7, reflecting a more hawkish stance in the latest dot plot[4] - Powell's comments suggest that "early" may refer to a possible rate cut in September, with a focus on upcoming economic data[6] Group 2: Economic and Political Context - Trump's pressure on the Fed, claiming that rate cuts could save $800 billion in interest costs, raises concerns about the Fed's credibility[4] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and their impact on inflation complicates the Fed's decision-making process[13] - The geopolitical landscape, particularly tensions in the Middle East, adds further uncertainty to inflation forecasts and financial stability[14] Group 3: Implications for China - The Fed's policy shift is expected to have limited direct impact on China, as the PBOC's rate decisions depend more on internal financial stability[18] - The RMB has shown increased elasticity, allowing for greater autonomy in monetary policy despite external influences[18] - China's focus remains on optimizing credit structure and managing systemic financial risks, rather than simply following the Fed's lead[18]

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.06.26） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铜 日内观点：78300-79300 中期观点：60000-90000 参考策略：震荡偏强操作思路、卖出深虚值看跌期权 核心逻辑： 1、宏观方面，美联储多数官员认为今年晚些时候降息是合适的。 2、供给方面，虽然泰国跃居成我国占比最高的废铜进口来源国，但由于来源 于美国的废铜进口量减少，5 月废铜进口总量环比下滑 9.55%，同比下降 6.63%。预 计 6 月废铜进口量将进一步下滑，而来自于美国的废铜进口占比将跌至 5%之下。现 货市场方面，广东地区集中到货，持货商降价出货，市场上货源增加。华北市场现 货供应正常。 3、需求方面，5 月份精铜杆线出口总量环比增长 17.57%，同比增长 34%，但 进入 6 月，终端需求明显走弱，多数企业出口量有一定下滑。5 月全国电源工程投 资累计完成额为 2578 亿元，累计同比增长 0.4%。据 SMM 调研了解，现时不少再生 铜杆企业反映由于精废价差、精废杆价差位于均衡线附近，叠加终端传统淡季，导 致了再生铜杆企业订单不足，再生铜杆企业受高原料价格导致成品销售亏损、政策 ...

三菱日联：地缘政治风险和需求不确定性缓解或抑制油价上涨 金十数据6月26日讯，受美国需求强劲的迹象以及交易员密切关注美伊核谈判进展的支撑，油价欧洲时 段早盘小幅走高。三菱日联分析师Soojin Kim表示："由于库存紧张和季节性需求，短期内价格支撑可 能会持续，不过地缘政治风险和需求不确定性的缓解可能会抑制进一步上涨。"然而，由于市场基本面 仍普遍看跌，基准油价本月大幅下跌。由于贸易不确定性持续，全球需求前景正在减弱，而随着欧佩克 +继续增加产量，供应仍然强劲。 ...

Group 1 - Foreign investors have shifted to net selling of Japanese stocks for the first time since March, selling 524.3 billion yen (approximately 3.62 billion USD) after 11 consecutive weeks of buying totaling 7.236 trillion yen [1] - Analysts attribute the shift to high market valuations, as the market continues to rise despite weak earnings, leading to concerns about overvaluation [1] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, may also be influencing foreign investors' decisions due to potential impacts on Japan's oil imports and inflation levels [1] Group 2 - Despite the recent net selling, foreign investment in Japanese stocks this quarter has reached approximately 6.81 trillion yen, marking the largest inflow in two years [2] - In the bond market, foreign investors sold 368.8 billion yen of Japanese long-term bonds, ending a three-week buying streak, but purchased 1.5 trillion yen in short-term notes, the highest level in nine weeks [2] - Japanese investors have been net sellers of foreign stocks for six consecutive weeks, selling 88.2 billion yen, while buying about 615.5 billion yen in long-term foreign bonds [2]

Core Viewpoint - FedEx reported record profits in its latest financial results, but the stock price fell nearly 6% in after-hours trading due to concerns over future guidance and macroeconomic uncertainties [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q4 of fiscal year 2025, FedEx achieved revenues of $22.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of approximately 1%, slightly above market expectations [1]. - GAAP earnings per share (EPS) were $6.88, while non-GAAP adjusted EPS was $6.07, both exceeding analyst expectations of $5.81 to $5.96 [1]. - The operating profit margin improved to 9.1%, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [1]. - The company saved $2.2 billion through its DRIVE cost control program in fiscal year 2025 and plans to cut an additional $1 billion in operating costs in fiscal year 2026 [1]. Market Reaction - Despite strong financial data, FedEx's stock price declined significantly after the earnings report due to the cancellation of the full-year earnings outlook for fiscal year 2026 and a conservative Q1 EPS forecast of $3.40 to $4.00, below market expectations of $4.10 [2][4]. - Concerns were raised regarding the company's international business performance, particularly in air freight, due to a notable decline in low-value e-commerce shipments from China, linked to recent U.S. tariffs [2][3]. Management Commentary - FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam emphasized the need for caution in operational planning due to global macroeconomic uncertainties and rapid changes in the market environment [3]. - The CFO reiterated the focus on cost optimization, network efficiency, and disciplined capital expenditure to mitigate macro pressures [3]. Shareholder Returns - FedEx announced a 5% increase in its quarterly dividend and continued its stock buyback program, reflecting confidence in its cash flow situation [3]. Competitive Landscape - Compared to UPS, which reported a revenue of $21.5 billion with a year-on-year decline of 0.7% but maintained its full-year guidance, FedEx's lack of long-term outlook has raised concerns about its transparency and investor confidence [3][4]. Future Focus Areas - Investors should monitor three key aspects: the ability to meet the conservative Q1 EPS guidance, the stability of U.S.-China trade policies and the international air freight business, and the progress of FedEx Freight's business split and its impact on overall valuation and profit structure [4].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the Nasdaq rising by 0.31%, while the S&P 500 remained flat and the Dow Jones fell by 0.25% [1] - Major tech stocks had varied performances, with Nvidia increasing over 4% to reach a market capitalization of $3.77 trillion, making it the highest valued company globally [1] - Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropping by 0.6% [1] Group 2 - President Trump warned of a potential resurgence in the Israel-Iran conflict during a NATO summit, which led to a significant spike in international oil prices, with WTI crude rising above $66 and Brent crude above $67.50 [2] - Trump emphasized continued pressure on Iran while downplaying the likelihood of a nuclear agreement, indicating flexibility in sanctions policy [2] - Fed Chair Powell suggested that future trade agreements could create room for interest rate cuts, amidst criticism from Trump regarding his intelligence and performance [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the current economic situation's high level of uncertainty and emphasized the importance of relying on actual data rather than making overly confident predictions [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - Economic Outlook - Powell expressed that the economic landscape is characterized by significant uncertainty, indicating a cautious approach to forecasting [1] - He stated a preference for using real data as a basis for decisions rather than speculative predictions [1] - Forward Guidance - The Chairman noted that he does not wish to provide excessive forward guidance, suggesting a more data-driven approach to monetary policy [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔：关税不确定性在四月达到高点。 ...

不确定性已成为今年全球经济最大的主题。 在天津举行的世界经济论坛第十六届新领军者年会（夏季达沃斯论坛）期间，首席经济学家简报发布会 会场门口早早排起了长队，成为论坛首日最火爆的场次之一——不确定性加剧背景下，全球经济前景依 然是来自世界各地的嘉宾和媒体的关注焦点。 最近几天，伊以"停火"扰动着全球市场的神经。包括地缘政治冲突、贸易保护主义在内，各类不确定性 因素成为来自各国的经济学家热议的话题。在他们看来，不确定性已成为今年全球经济最大的主题，地 区冲突无疑加剧了这一态势。 聚焦中国经济，北京大学国家发展研究院院长兼数字金融研究中心主任黄益平提到，当前各方面不确定 性的确带来了诸多挑战，但中国经济依然显现出较强韧性，印证了相关政策的有效性。 "中国经济上半年表现还是不错的，我预计下半年GDP增速仍将高于5%。当然中国经济也面对不确定 性，比如房地产行业仍然在进行调整，外部环境充满不确定性，今年前几个季度的部分经济指标表现不 错，尤其是消费领域，但PPI和CPI、民企投资等指标依然比较疲弱，在未来几个季度要特别谨慎，要关 注一些潜在风险。"黄益平认为，中国未来几个季度的经济表现一方面依赖于全球经济动向和政策环 ...

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of market uncertainty has led to an increase in gold futures prices, driven by geopolitical and trade-related risks despite a temporary stabilization following a ceasefire between Israel and Iran [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold futures prices have risen as market uncertainty re-emerges [1] - Earlier this week, gold experienced significant sell-offs but has since stabilized [1] - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran initially reduced safe-haven demand for gold [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions and trade-related risks continue to support safe-haven demand for gold [1] - Optimism regarding the ceasefire is tempered by the potential for renewed conflict, as a leaked U.S. intelligence report suggests that military actions may have only delayed Iran's nuclear program by a few months [1] Group 3: Trade Tensions - Market attention may shift towards unresolved trade tensions, which could further impact gold prices [1]