黑色建材日报 | 2025-06-20 成材持续去库，钢价震荡运行 钢材：宏观情绪扰动，钢价震荡运行 风险 市场分析 昨日，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于2986元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3103元/吨。现货方面，根据钢联数据显示，螺纹本 周产量较上周有所上升，库存、需求略微下降；热卷产量和消费上升，库存小幅下降。昨日，全国建材成交9.01 万吨。 综合来看：螺纹方面，随着建材进入消费淡季，建材产销存持续回落，由于目前市场缺乏投机性需求，淡季弱需 求将持续压制钢材价格；热卷方面，目前板材利润优于建材，产销表现出较强韧性，市场担忧后期抢出口情绪退 坡后影响板材消费，虽然出口略有下滑，但是短期仍保持高位。整体来看，钢材目前供需矛盾不大，后期关注中 美关税谈判和内需刺激政策。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：需求维持韧性，矿价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行。现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅波动，贸易商报价积极性一 般，报价多随行就市，市场交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按需补库为主。昨日全国主港铁矿累 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a proactive macroeconomic policy, particularly through the implementation of moderately loose monetary policy, to address the uncertainties arising from the changing external environment and to ensure high-quality economic development [1]. PART.01: Reasons for Implementing Moderately Loose Monetary Policy - Global economic growth is slowing, with increased uncertainty due to rising trade protectionism. The IMF has revised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8%, and the WTO has cut the global trade growth forecast from 3.2% to 1.7% [2]. - The slowdown in global trade is primarily attributed to the U.S. government's tariff and trade policies, which have raised trade costs and inflation pressures, leading to reduced investment and economic growth [2]. - China's economy is highly integrated into the global market, with a trade dependence of 72.4% as of April 2025, and external shocks from global trade slowdowns are impacting China's foreign trade growth [2]. PART.02: Understanding Moderately Loose Monetary Policy - Monetary policy focuses on total demand management and counter-cyclical adjustments. It aims to restore balance between total demand and supply, ensuring price stability and economic growth [6]. - Moderately loose monetary policy involves dynamic adjustments based on macroeconomic and financial market changes, utilizing various tools to lower financing costs and stimulate demand [7]. - The policy framework includes five stances: loose, moderately loose, stable, moderately tight, and tight, with adjustments made according to economic conditions [8]. PART.03: Implementing Moderately Loose Monetary Policy - The implementation of moderately loose monetary policy has shown effectiveness in promoting economic growth and managing total demand [10]. - Key measures include lowering policy interest rates and maintaining reasonable growth in money and credit, with significant reductions in loan rates for enterprises and individuals [11]. - The People's Bank of China has introduced ten monetary policy measures to enhance support for the real economy, focusing on total, price, and structural aspects to ensure effective policy transmission and support for key sectors [12][13].

今年来，随着消费品以旧换新行动持续加力扩容，消费市场提振效果显著。商务部数据显 示，截至 5 月 31 日， 2025 年消费品以旧换新 5 大品类合计带动销售额 1.1 万亿元，发 放直达消费者的补贴约 1.75 亿份。 有市场分析认为，基于稳增长相关政策的持续发力，叠加金融机构、电商平台等市场主体的 深度协同，这一行动有望进一步撬动消费潜能，为经济增长注入强劲动力。 根据商务部数据， 2024 年，消费品以旧换新带动相关产品销售超 1.3 万亿元。而今年仅 前 5 个月，消费品以旧换新 5 大品类已合计带动销售额 1.1 万亿元，发放直达消费者的补 贴约 1.75 亿份。 其中，汽车以旧换新补贴申请量达 412 万份； 4986.3 万名消费者购买 12 大类家电产品 7761.8 万台； 5352.9 万名消费者购买手机等数码产品 5662.9 万件；电动自行车以旧换 新 650 万辆；家装厨卫"焕新" 5762.6 万单。 今年消费品以旧换新带动销售额加速破万亿的背后，核心在于政策加力与范围扩容双轮驱 动，消费者热情得以有效激发，乘数效应持续释放。 在财政支持方面，今年中央财政安排超长期特别国债资金 ...

近日，广州、北京等地相继出台提振消费政策，不仅有提高工资性收入等"规定动作"，还因地制宜出台 了各具特色的具体措施。尤其在优化消费环境方面，不少地方通过规范市场竞争秩序、加强消费者权益 保护、营造放心消费环境、加大消费资金投入等，促进消费环境持续改善。专家表示，一揽子增量政策 与存量政策协同发力，"钱包不够鼓""没时间消费"等痛点得到了缓解。 消费一头连着生产发展，一头连着民生福祉，是经济增长的重要引擎。近一段时间，多地纷纷出台提振 消费相关方案，根据地方特点提出提升居民消费能力和意愿的具体举措，进一步提振消费。 多地"放大招" 日前，广州发布《广州提振消费专项行动实施方案（征求意见稿）》，涉及"居民就业增收""大宗消费 升级""消费品质提升""限制措施清理""政策支持保障"等八大领域，共提出33项具体行动举措，以全方 位激活消费市场。作为居民大宗消费的重要组成部分，住房消费被重点提及，包括城中村和老旧小区改 造、收购存量房用作安置房、优化公积金政策等，同时提出取消限购、限价、限售等多种消费限制。 此外，广西近日发布的《广西提振消费专项行动实施方案》，从统筹供需同向发力、优化消费环境和发 挥政策协同联动等方面 ...

Economic Outlook - Daxin Financial forecasts Hong Kong's economy to grow by 2.4% this year, despite ongoing uncertainties from the US-China trade war [1] - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is expected to challenge the 25,000-point mark in the second half of the year, with a support level around 20,800 points [1] Market Conditions - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks has returned to a more reasonable level, but volatility is anticipated due to unclear US-China trade prospects and the effectiveness of mainland economic stimulus measures [1] - High dividend yields, domestic consumption, and innovation and technology sectors are expected to have a positive outlook [1] Mainland China Economic Impact - Short-term growth in mainland China's exports is anticipated, as some companies shift exports to ASEAN and other regions, offsetting declines in exports to the US [1] - Mainland China's economy is projected to grow by 4.4% this year, supported by relaxed monetary policy and a commitment to more proactive fiscal policies [1] Real Estate Market - The significant drop in mortgage rates and gradual recovery in rental yields are expected to alleviate downward pressure on Hong Kong property prices [2] - However, potential oversupply in new residential properties and uncertainties from the trade war may lead to an estimated 5% decline in property prices for the entire year of 2025 [2]

近期，多地消费者申领家电、数码等"国补"遇阻，"额度已用完"等提示频现，这引发了"国补"提前结束 的猜测。 消费品以旧换新政策对商品消费的助力较大。5月份，限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材 类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额分别增长53.0%、33.0%、30.5%、25.6%。 智通财经记者查询发现，地方政府近期发布的促消费一揽子举措中均提及加大力度推进以旧换新。 例如，深圳市在6月6日发布的 《深圳市提振消费专项行动实施方案》中提到，用好超长期特别国债资 金，支持汽车报废更新、汽车置换更新、家电以旧换新、数码产品购新、家装消费品换新、电动自行车 以旧换新等，加快补贴资金审核发放，鼓励商家、卖场、平台追加补贴。 福建省政府办公厅近日印发的《福建省提振消费专项行动实施方案》提到，在现有政策基础上，推动装 修材料、卫生洁具等我省更多优势产品参与以旧换新活动。 据《人民日报》官方微信号周四发布消息，记者从有关部委了解到，今年1月和4月已分别下达两批共计 1620亿元中央资金，支持地方做好一、二季度消费品以旧换新工作。后续还有1380亿元中央资金将在 三、四季度分批有序下达，同时地方也将相应配套和自行安 ...

Core Viewpoint - Consumption is a crucial engine for economic growth and a key element in promoting domestic circulation, reflecting the direct needs of people's quality of life. Xiamen International Bank actively responds to the national strategy of "expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption" by leveraging consumer loans as a key tool to activate consumption potential [1] Group 1: Consumer Loan Initiatives - Xiamen International Bank is implementing consumer loan discount activities to stimulate consumption, offering preferential interest rates and distributing over 5,000 discount coupons to eligible customers. The bank aims to exceed 30 billion yuan in personal consumer loan issuance by 2025 [2] - The bank has launched various marketing campaigns focused on daily consumption scenarios, such as transportation and entertainment, to inject new vitality into the consumption market [2] Group 2: Product Optimization and Service Enhancement - The bank continuously optimizes personal consumer loan products, introducing flexible repayment options and a streamlined online renewal process to meet diverse customer needs [3] - The bank's housing loan services are comprehensive, supporting various scenarios such as mortgage transfers and providing exclusive services for overseas Chinese and residents from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan [4] Group 3: Payment Services and Consumer Benefits - Xiamen International Bank has enhanced payment convenience by offering a range of specialized credit card benefits tailored to different consumer groups, improving the overall consumer experience [5] Group 4: Consumer Protection and Safety Measures - The bank emphasizes consumer rights protection and collaborates with local law enforcement to ensure customer fund security, while also conducting financial education and anti-fraud campaigns to enhance consumer awareness [6] - The bank is committed to fulfilling its social responsibility by activating consumption engines and creating a safe consumption environment, thereby contributing to economic circulation and improving residents' quality of life [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada's Governor Macklem indicated that domestic demand in Canada was weak in the first quarter, and if tariffs and uncertainty persist, households and businesses may continue to adopt a cautious stance [1] Group 1 - The first quarter saw a decline in domestic demand in Canada [1] - Ongoing tariffs and uncertainty are likely to contribute to a cautious attitude among households and businesses [1]

报告导读： 2025 年下半年，外需拖累逐步显现，叠加去年四季度基数偏高影响，预计宏观经济仍有温和回落压力。结构 来看，近两年依靠生产扩张与制造业投资对冲地产与内需偏弱，但也面临出口回落、产能利用率偏低、利润下滑 对供给端的掣肘。内需中的消费、地产、地方基建在一系列稳增长对冲举措落地的情况下，有所修复但斜率偏 平。外需方面，在贸易摩擦带来的需求前置效应减弱后，对国内经济的拖累作用逐步显现。政策方面，在"实施 更加积极有为的宏观政策"导向下，政策将延续稳增长、稳信心、稳资产的基调，择机落地积极的财政和货币工 具，加快提振内需，稳定地产，促进产业转型升级，推动经济稳中有进。 当前宏观面仍维持低需求低价格（通胀）与低库存的三低格局，政策底明确但超预期概率不高，外需不确定 性仍存，内部传统经济如地产行业仍在磨底。去年的年报观点里我们认为"库存周期上看，中美的周期共振先下 才能打出往上的空间"，而当下中美正处于去库共振阶段，整体商品需求侧支撑较弱。在政策底线明确的情况下， 人民币资产配置下半年进入债市高位震荡防阶段性变盘、股市捕捉结构性行情和商品底部震荡等待驱动的节奏。 内外部的政策刺激力度与贸易战谈判的结果构成宏观面 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月18日 投资建议： 建材方面，国际贸易冲突加剧背景下，扩内需稳增长政策有望加码，建材整 体仍以内需为主导，板块基本面进一步恶化空间有限，同时有望受益后续政 策倾斜，目前板块估值和持仓均处于底部，逢低择优布局经营韧性更强的消 费建材龙头，尤其零售端受益二手房景气及存量改造需求率先迎来改善，推 荐三棵树、北新建材、兔宝宝、伟星新材、东方雨虹，关注科顺股份；同时 受益复价落地带来盈利中枢上移，业绩同比修复确定性更强的水泥玻纤板 块，推荐海螺水泥、华新水泥、中国巨石、中材科技，关注塔牌集团等，以 及玻璃龙头底部配置机会旗滨集团。 建筑建材双周报（2025 年第 11 期） 优于大市 地产基建景气回落，增量政策预期增强 地产基建景气回落，增量政策预期增强。2025 年 1-5 月，固定资产投资同比 +3.7%，增速环比收窄 0.3 个百分点，狭义基建投资同比+5.6%，增速环比收 窄 0.2 个百分点，房地产开发投资同比-10.7%；新开工面积同比-22.8%；竣 工面积同比-17.3%，新建商品房销售面积同比-2.9%。固投和基建增速环比 收窄，房地产数据仍然疲软，二手房挂牌量创新高 ...