风险提示：国际贸易摩擦加剧的风险，原料价格大幅上涨的风险，下游需求不及预期的 风险，主营产品景气度下降的风险，项目达产不及预期的风险等。(中国银河 翟启迪) 1-3月国原油表观需求回落，同比下降1.6%。1-3月，我国加工原油1.82亿吨，同比增长 1.6%；原油产量0.54亿吨，同比增长1.1%；原油进口1.35亿吨，同比下降1.5%；原油表观消 费量1.88亿吨，同比下降1.6%；对外依存度72.1%，维持高位。 1-3月我国天然气表观需求回落，同比下降2.2%。1-3月，我国天然气表观消费量1048亿 方，同比下降2.2%；产量660亿方，同比增长4.4%；进口量406亿方，同比下降10.0%；对外 依存度38.8%，同比回落3.4个百分点。 1-3月我国成品油表观需求回落，同比下降4.9%。1-3月，我国成品油产量1.01亿吨，同 比下降7.0%；成品油出口751万吨，同比下降26.1%，主要系年后国内独立炼厂开工率低于 往年，主营资源多用于补充地炼开工走低造成的产量损失，出口利润持续偏低等原因；成品 油表观消费量0.93亿吨，同比下降4.9%。其中，汽油、煤油、柴油表观消费量同比下降 4.1%、1. ...

Core Viewpoint - The city of Luoyang in Henan Province has launched a comprehensive safety special rectification action in the chemical industry, focusing on the inspection of three types of chemical enterprises and four key locations, as well as addressing ten types of problem clues [1][2]. Group 1: Focus of the Special Rectification Action - The action targets illegal transfer, subcontracting, leasing of factories, equipment, and qualifications, as well as unauthorized changes in production scope and illegal operations in hazardous chemical production and storage [1]. - The three types of chemical enterprises under scrutiny include: 1. Hazardous chemical production, operation, and usage enterprises (including newly established, under construction, and long-term suspended enterprises) 2. General chemical and pharmaceutical production enterprises (including newly established, under construction, and long-term suspended enterprises) 3. Other types of enterprises using suspected chemical devices such as reactors, storage tanks, distillation towers, and ground flares [1]. Group 2: Key Locations and Problem Clues - The four key locations include: 1. Long-term suspended or closed chemical enterprises 2. Enterprises lacking safety facility "three simultaneous" procedures and proper safety design diagnosis 3. Abandoned idle factories, warehouses, schools, residential houses, and farms 4. Locations that are remote and have space for chemical production equipment and storage of raw materials and products [2]. - The ten types of problem clues being investigated include: 1. Use of inappropriate production containers and devices such as plastic barrels, iron cans, gas cylinders, reactors, distillation tanks, and mixers 2. Serious rust on equipment and improper piping connections 3. Abnormal odors such as rotten egg smell, irritating odors, sweet or sour smells 4. Emission of colored smoke 5. Wastewater with black, red, or turbid colors, or floating oil and foam on the water surface 6. Noisy production sites operating at night 7. Unauthorized power line connections 8. Excessive use of coal-fired boilers or liquefied gas tanks 9. Suspicious vehicles such as tank trucks and box trucks entering and exiting 10. Lack of proper naming for products and raw materials [2].

大会还发布了"石油化工行业减污降碳典型案例"，推荐上海化工区等八家单位的案例为标杆案例，推荐 中国石化九江分公司等八家单位的案例为优秀案例。 聚焦可再生能源与石油化工生产系统耦合 当前，我国炼油产能世界第一，但同时存在炼油产品结构性矛盾突出、碳排放总量高的问题。中石化上 海石化（600688）院副总工程师滕加伟强调，油转化、高端化、绿色化是石油化工高质量发展的技术方 向。即将原油或石油产品转化为化学品；生产高附加值的化学品或化工新材料；开发绿色工艺和高效反 应过程。具体技术路径为炼化副产制化学品、高端化工产品制造、废弃塑料循环利用、生物质制化学 品、绿氢利用、二氧化碳制化学品、绿色低碳工艺技术、过程强化、生产运行智能化。 石油和化学工业规划院副院长、石化专委会副主任王钰为"十五五"期间行业的绿色发展提供思路。近年 来，我国绿色发展水平持续提高，但碳减排压力较大，传统污染物与新污染物治理压力并存等问题已然 制约我国绿色发展。王钰指出，应在重点领域、聚焦重点环节实施节能降碳改造，大幅提升能效标杆水 平占比；促进企业环保装置提标改造，鼓励资源化利用和无害化处置装置建设；聚焦可再生能源与石化 化工生产系统耦合、二氧化 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 5 月 9 日 星期五 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场全天低开高走，创业板指领涨 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3352.00 | 0.28% | 9.33 | | | 深证成指 | 10197.66 | 0.93% | 93.53 | | | 沪深 300 | 3852.90 | 0.56% | 21.27 | | | 创业板 | 2029.45 | 1.65% | 32.94 | | | 科创 50 | 1026.44 | -0.36% | -3.75 | | | 北证 50 | 1380.93 | 0.98% | 13.36 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万一级涨幅前五 | | | 申万一级跌幅前五 | 热点板块 n | 涨幅前五 | 热点板块跌幅前五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信 | 2.60% | 美容护理 | ...

不出所料，大科技板块就在人形机器人算力人工智能带领下，掀起了科技板块的涨停潮。那么早上很多散户朋友们呢看到大盘低开12个点，担心 呢去年10月8号的套人行情呢再度重演。其实呢关注老冯的家人们呢都知道，我呢从4月初就开始反复强调，5月份就是打翻身仗的绝佳时机，每一 次调整呢都是抄底的良机，果不其然，全天呢在银行、证券、地产三大权重板块二的护盘之下，呢大盘开盘之后呢指数是一路飘红，而且呢今天 游资呢净买入了8.7亿，市场情绪呢非常高涨，那为什么缩量了？因为汪汪队呢4月份以来呢天天在护盘，趁着今天有利好政策的情况下，呢外资 游资散户进场建立的间隙，修行，为明天的继续护盘呢做好准备，那么明天大盘还能涨吗？能涨多少点？冯珂认为，今天大盘呢30分钟k线呢显示 出MACD的顶背离，加量价背离，所以明天大盘呢估计会呢高开低走，那么最低支撑位呢就在3337点附近，而明天主力的进攻方向呢还是4朵金 花，人形机器人算力人工智能和化工，这也是呢五六月份主力的进攻方向，那么接下来呢大家就可以围绕着这4个方向，呢反复做高抛低吸，一定 呢会收获满满。同时呢大家一定要关注牛市旗手证券板块的表现，在反包昨天阴线之前，呢都是你吃大科技海底捞的机 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential collapse of high-level stock groupings, particularly focusing on stocks like Sanxia and Hongbao, which have shown signs of weakness and volatility in recent trading sessions [1][2] - Hongbao is identified as having a double-top risk due to profit-taking by major stakeholders, leading to a significant drop in its stock price, which also affected Sanxia [2] - The performance of Guofang is highlighted as relatively strong despite the overall market's low opening, attributed to its status as a recognized leader in the sector and the presence of supportive funds [3] Group 2 - The technology sector, particularly stocks like DLG and Huasheng, is under scrutiny for potential sell-off risks if they fail to rebound, indicating a cautious outlook for future performance [4] - The article notes that the market's direction is unclear, with military and technology sectors lacking sustained momentum, while consumer stocks are seen as a safer investment choice [3] - The potential for independent market movements is discussed, especially for stocks like Zhongchao, which may break through current resistance levels if conditions allow [4]

Market Size and Growth Potential - The global market for 1,3-butanediol is projected to reach $350 million by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2% during the forecast period, driven by sustained demand in traditional applications and rapid growth in emerging markets [4] - Chemical synthesis currently dominates the market, holding an 82.7% share, while bio-based 1,3-butanediol is emerging as a potential disruptor due to increasing sustainability demands [4] - The cosmetics industry is the largest demand sector for 1,3-butanediol, accounting for 85.3% of the market share, with steady growth in pharmaceutical and food applications further expanding market opportunities [4] Competitive Landscape and Market Participants - The global 1,3-butanediol market is highly concentrated, with top companies like OQ Chemicals, DAICEL, and KH Neochem collectively holding 88.0% of the market share [4][6] - OQ Chemicals and DAICEL maintain a leading position in the high-end market due to their technological expertise and global presence, while local players like Shandong Haike New Materials leverage cost advantages in the mid-to-low-end market [4][6] Driving Factors and Market Opportunities - Technological innovations in production processes, including optimized chemical synthesis and mature fermentation techniques, are enhancing product quality and expanding applications in high-end markets [7] - The growth of the global pharmaceutical and personal care markets, driven by aging populations and increasing health awareness, is creating significant demand for 1,3-butanediol [8][9] - Continuous improvements in production processes are lowering costs, enhancing the market competitiveness of 1,3-butanediol [10] Future Development Trends - The market for bio-based 1,3-butanediol is expected to grow significantly as environmental regulations tighten and consumer preferences shift towards sustainable products [14] - Emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in countries like China, Japan, and India, are anticipated to be key drivers of demand growth for 1,3-butanediol [15] - Research into new applications for 1,3-butanediol in areas such as renewable energy and biodegradable materials is ongoing, potentially opening new commercial opportunities [16]

芭田股份(002170.SZ) 深度报告： 优质磷矿产能快速扩张，复合肥巨头再腾飞 ——系列深度之二 评级：买入(维持) | 李永磊(证券分析师) | 董伯骏(证券分析师) | 李娟廷(证券分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | S0350521080004 | S0350521080009 | S0350524090007 | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | lijt03@ghzq.com.cn | 最近一年走势 证券研究报告 2025年05月08日 农化制品 -26% -2% 22% 46% 71% 95% 2024/05/07 2024/08/05 2024/11/03 2025/02/01 2025/05/02 芭田股份 沪深300 | 市场数据 | 2025/05/07 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 10.18 | | 52周价格区间（元） | 4.86-11.48 | | 总市值（百万） | 9,809.22 | | 流通市值（百万） | 7,255.28 | | 总股本（万股） | 96,357. ...

基础化工月报：三氯乙烯等价格上行，我国甲醇表观消 费量首次突破 1 亿吨 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 8 日 [Table_ReportDate] 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Tabl 行业e_ReportType] 月报 化工行业 张燕生 化工行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500517050001 联系电话：+86 010-83326847 邮 箱：zhangyansheng@cindasc.com 洪英东 化工行业分析师 执业编号：S1500520080002 联系电话：+86 010-83326848 邮 箱： hongyingdong@cindasc.com 尹 柳 化工行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524090001 联系电话：+86 010-83326712 邮 箱： yinliu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [基础化工月报： Table_Title] 三氯乙烯等价格上行，我国甲醇表观 消费量首次突破 1 亿吨 [Table_Re ...

基础化工月报：三氯乙烯等价格上行，我国甲醇表观消 费量首次突破 1 亿吨 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 8 日 [Table_ReportDate] 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Tabl 行业e_ReportType] 月报 化工行业 张燕生 化工行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500517050001 联系电话：+86 010-83326847 邮 箱：zhangyansheng@cindasc.com 洪英东 化工行业分析师 执业编号：S1500520080002 联系电话：+86 010-83326848 邮 箱： hongyingdong@cindasc.com 尹 柳 化工行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524090001 联系电话：+86 010-83326712 邮 箱： yinliu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [基础化工月报： Table_Title] 三氯乙烯等价格上行，我国甲醇表观 消费量首次突破 1 亿吨 [Table_Re ...