Group 1 - Russia's financial reserves have significantly decreased from 10 trillion rubles to 6 trillion rubles in just two months, indicating a severe fiscal crisis [1] - The average daily expenditure of Russia in the ongoing conflict is over 400 million USD, approximately 30 billion RMB, highlighting the financial strain of military operations [3] - The energy export sector, previously a major revenue source for Russia, is under pressure due to Western sanctions, with the IMF predicting a mere 0.3% GDP growth for Russia this year, suggesting economic stagnation [5][7] Group 2 - Russia is actively seeking to enhance energy cooperation with China, with the Russian Energy Minister frequently visiting China to discuss potential projects [9] - The "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline project is a focal point for Russia, aiming to transport natural gas to China, but the financial terms proposed by Russia may be seen as excessive by China [11][13] - China is shifting from emotional cooperation to interest-based cooperation, emphasizing the need for mutually beneficial agreements rather than one-sided concessions [15][25] Group 3 - Russian energy companies are facing a significant decline in net profits, dropping from 1.445 trillion rubles to 789.5 billion rubles year-on-year, reflecting a severe downturn in the energy sector [20] - High domestic interest rates and a rapidly increasing debt burden are exacerbating Russia's financial challenges, with 20% benchmark interest rates and a 14% annual debt growth rate [21] - The reliance on Chinese markets for energy exports is seen as a potential lifeline for Russia, but sustainable cooperation must be based on shared interests and risk-sharing [23][27]

Core Points - Israel launched a large-scale airstrike on Iran's capital Tehran and Natanz nuclear facilities on June 13, 2025, resulting in significant military and civilian casualties, which has escalated regional tensions [1] - Japan and several Asian countries condemned Israel's actions, with Japan emphasizing the importance of Middle East stability for its economy due to its heavy reliance on oil imports [3] - The international community expressed concerns over the potential for a global energy crisis and geopolitical reconfiguration due to the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict [4] Group 1: Regional Reactions - Japan's government held an emergency press conference, stressing the need to protect its citizens in Iran and prevent further escalation through diplomatic means [3] - Malaysia and Indonesia also condemned Israel's military actions, highlighting a collective regional stance against unilateral military interventions [3] - The reactions from Asian countries reflect their awareness of the vulnerabilities associated with energy dependence amid regional conflicts [5] Group 2: International Responses - Global leaders, including the UK Prime Minister and the UN Secretary-General, called for restraint and a return to diplomatic solutions [4] - China's Foreign Ministry characterized Israel's actions as violations of Iran's sovereignty, indicating a willingness to mediate [4] - The military confrontation has led to a significant increase in Brent crude oil futures, rising by 8.7%, the largest increase since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in 2023 [4] Group 3: Economic Implications - If the Israel-Iran conflict persists beyond two weeks, oil prices could exceed $150 per barrel, potentially triggering global inflation and economic recession risks [4] - Japan's Minister of Economy acknowledged the need for heightened vigilance regarding energy supply chains due to the conflict [4] - The situation underscores the urgent need for multilateral mechanisms to manage crises and maintain energy security [5]

伊朗：美国参与了袭击 美军在中东调兵 当地时间13日，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊的国际事务高级顾问阿里·阿克巴尔·韦拉亚提发表 声明，宣布美国参与了以色列的袭击。 他强调，此次袭击发生在国际原子能机构理事会通过反伊朗决议后，以及第六轮伊美核谈判 即将开始之前，并将此次袭击描述为以色列面对伊朗日益增长的实力而"绝望和恐惧"的表 现。 他表示，当前伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队正在准备回应。 当地时间13日， 总台记者 获悉，两名美国官员表示，为回应以色列袭击伊朗以及伊朗可能 采取的报复性袭击，美国正在调动其在中东的舰艇和其他军事资源。 据悉，美国海军已指示"托马斯·哈德纳"号驱逐舰驶往东地中海，并指示第二艘驱逐舰开始 前进，以便在白宫需要时随时待命。一位官员表示，美国总统特朗普于当日上午与国家安全 委员会负责人会面，包括国防部长赫格塞思和参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩，讨论当前局 势。 当地时间13日，伊朗北部库姆、西北部霍拉姆达雷、中部加姆萨尔传出爆炸声并冒出浓 烟。德黑兰西部也再次传出爆炸声。 央视记者 获悉，联合国安理会将在当地时间13日15时就以色列伊朗局势举行公开会。 当地时间13日， 央视记者 获悉，两名美国国务院官员表 ...

智通财经6月14日电，据新华社，联合国一名高级官员13日在刚果（金）东部北基伍省首府戈马说，刚 果（金）反政府武装"M23运动"领导人愿通过和平方式解决当前该国东部的危机。联合国秘书长刚果 （金）问题特别代表凯塔当天在戈马市会见了"M23运动"及其所属政治军事联盟"刚果河联盟"的领导 人。凯塔随后在新闻发布会上表示，双方表达了参与对话、寻求和平解决方案的意愿。凯塔说，在刚果 （金）政府、"刚果河联盟"以及红十字国际委员会等协作下，1359名刚果（金）政府军士兵和国家警察 已从戈马转移至首都金沙萨。凯塔表示，联合国刚果（金）稳定特派团将继续支持一切旨在缓解紧张局 势、推动地区和平的努力。 联合国官员：刚果（金）反政府武装愿通过和平方式解决危机 ...

Group 1 - Iran has indefinitely suspended planned nuclear talks with the U.S. in Oman, following U.S. President Trump's urging for Iran to accept a nuclear deal to avoid further attacks [1] - Israel conducted airstrikes using 200 aircraft targeting approximately 100 sites in Iran, leading to a temporary spike in oil prices by 13% [1] - The Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that the attacks aimed at the core of Iran's nuclear enrichment program [1][2] Group 2 - The airstrikes resulted in at least 95 injuries and significant destruction of residential buildings in the suburbs of Tehran, although official death tolls have not been released [2] - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei warned that Israel would "pay a heavy price" and that Iranian armed forces would retaliate severely [2] - The situation is expected to escalate into a broader regional conflict, with immediate global economic impacts, particularly on energy prices, as Brent crude oil rose by 8.3% to $75 per barrel [3]

宏 观 研 究 2025 年 06 月 13 日 中东冲突升级、美再加征关税，美联储还能降息吗？ ——宏观周报（第 8 期） 投资要点： 宏 观 定 以色列向主要产油国、OPEC 成员国之一的伊朗发动空袭，中东地区 冲突局势再度升级，原油价格大幅飙升。当地时间 6 月 12 日凌晨，以色列 对 OPEC 成员国之一的伊朗发动袭击，受此影响，原油现货价格大幅飙升， 6 月 13 日盘内布伦特原油和 WTI 原油价格一度分别上冲至最高 78.5 美元/ 桶、74.63 美元/桶，日内最高涨幅分别高达 12.0%和 13.2%。此前国际原油 价格受 OPEC+增产计划影响而持续低位运行的局面或将有所逆转。 期 报 告 1970s-1980s 两次石油危机的背景均为中东地区冲突局势升级造成的 原油供给锐减，美联储放任通胀和坚定实施定量紧缩的两种截然不同决策 模式和相应收效或已为鲍威尔指明方向。1973 年 10 月以色列发动第四次 中东战争，OPEC 决定联合实施较为严格的石油出口禁运，第一次石油危 机爆发。本轮油价飙升首先传导至美国的工业品出厂价格，并逐步向 CPI 和核心 CPI 传导，至 1974 年 11 月 ...

中东地缘局势再现"黑天鹅"事件！ 北京时间6月13日晚，欧洲股市开盘集体大跌。美股期指亦全线大跌，恐慌指数VIX一度飙涨 22%。 消息面上，据央视新闻报道，当地时间13日凌晨，以色列国防军对包括伊朗核设施在内的多 处目标发动打击。 据央视新闻最新消息，以色列外交部13日发布声明表示，以色列驻世界各地的使馆将关闭， 不再提供领事服务。该部门还建议所有海外以色列人填写调查问卷，向以色列通报他们的位 置和情况。 此外，据伊朗民航组织当地时间13日发布的消息，当前伊朗所有机场的国内和国际航班暂 停，直至另行通知。 另据新华社援引伊朗学生通讯社13日报道，伊朗信息和通讯部当天发表声明说，由于伊朗的 特殊情况和有关部门采取的措施，伊朗限制全国的互联网访问。一旦情况恢复正常，互联网 限制将被取消。 在中东紧张局势冲击下，6月13日，国际油价一度暴涨逾10%。 在以色列袭击伊朗导致油价飙升后，法荷航集团股价一度大跌超6%，德国汉莎航空股价一度 大跌超5%。美国航空公司股价美股盘前也全线大跌，达美航空、联合大陆航空、美国航空均 大跌超4%，西南航空跌超2%。 以色列此次空袭伊朗与以往有何不同？ 据央视新闻报道，中国现代国际关 ...

Group 1 - The third China-ASEAN Defense Think Tank Exchange will be held from June 18 to 20 in Guiyang, focusing on promoting regional peace and building a secure community [1] - The theme of the event is "Promoting Regional Peace and Building a Secure Community," emphasizing defense cooperation and maritime security [1] - Participants will include defense policy officials and experts from China, ASEAN countries, East Timor, and representatives from the ASEAN Secretariat [1]

文 | 《BUG》栏目 张奥 今年"6·18"已进行大半，各大平台打得热火朝天，曾经的"美妆一哥"李佳琦悄悄"翻车"了。 截至目前，在黑猫投诉 【下载黑猫投诉客户端】平台，与李佳琦相关的投诉近2万条，多数与质量问题 有关。 越卖越贵？ 每年"6·18"都是各大主播们展现实力的大好机会，对消费者而言，谁能给到最有诱惑力的价格，就更愿 意到哪买单。 "6·18"预售时，初始价格约2900元的扫地机器人，在李佳琦直播间用券后不足1500元，大批用户买单。 事后，有多位网友透露被关闭了订单，他们质疑"李佳琦用低价骗流量？" 此外有多位网友发文称被李佳琦"价格背刺"： 毛戈平气垫比去年双十一贵了40元； 听研建构套组直播间价格比正常购买还要贵； 可复美套装比去年同期贵100元； BOBBI BROWN卸妆油贵近40元； …… 作为"老牌美妆一哥"的李佳琦自然也是不留余力，搬来了包括娇兰、希思黎、雅诗兰黛、YSL等在内的 化妆品大牌。 据青眼情报统计，截至5月14日凌晨1：30，李佳琦直播间美妆类目GMV超25亿元，对比2023年同期 （截至5月20日凌晨2点）近50亿元的峰值，同比大幅下滑。业内人士认为，这背后实际反映 ...

Core Insights - The UK higher education sector is facing significant financial pressures, leading to widespread layoffs, course closures, and restructuring plans across nearly 100 universities [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - The total revenue for the UK higher education sector for the 2023/2024 academic year is projected to be £52.3 billion, with 52% of this revenue coming from tuition fees, and international student fees accounting for an average of 23% of total income [4]. - A report from the Office for Students (OfS) indicates that 43% of surveyed institutions expect to run deficits in the 2024/2025 academic year, marking the third consecutive year of declining financial performance [1]. International Student Enrollment - The number of international student visas issued by the UK government decreased by approximately 64,000 in 2024, a decline of 13.9% compared to the previous year, with significant reductions in visas for students from India (26% decrease) and Nigeria (55% decrease) [5]. - The attractiveness of studying in the UK peaked in 2022, but has since declined due to slow economic recovery post-pandemic and changes in visa policies [5][6]. Domestic Student Trends - The cap on tuition fees for full-time undergraduate students in England has remained at £9,250 since 2012, with a slight increase planned for the 2025/2026 academic year [6]. - The enrollment rate for 18-year-olds in higher education has dropped from a peak of 38.2% in 2021 to 36.4% in 2024, indicating a potential decline in domestic student interest [6]. Institutional Responses - In response to financial challenges, universities are implementing cost-cutting measures, including course cancellations, reduced maintenance budgets, and layoffs, with 50% of surveyed institutions reporting course cancellations [7][8]. - The financial strain is affecting the job market for academic positions, leading to increased competition as experienced faculty return to the job market [8]. Government Policies and Future Outlook - The UK government has proposed a 6% tax on revenue from international student tuition fees, with limited details on how the funds will be utilized [9]. - The potential for attracting international students from the US due to changing policies there is being discussed, but long-term impacts on global academic collaboration remain uncertain [10][11].