[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 13 May 2025 美国航空航天与国防 US Aerospace and National Defense 印巴战机事件：地缘风险升温下的全球 A&D 板块影响分析 India-Pakistan Fighter Incident: Global Aerospace & Defense Sector Impact Amidst Rising Geopolitical Risk 杨斌 Bin Yang bin.yang@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件： 2025 年 5 月 10 日，巴基斯坦军方在旁遮普省锡亚尔科特附近击落一架印度空军阵风战斗机（序列号 BS001，隶属第 17 中队），飞行员在哈吉拉地区被俘。此事件是印度"辛杜尔行动"的一部分，回应 4 月 24 日克什米尔帕哈加姆恐怖袭击（造成 26 人死亡），印度指责袭击由巴基斯坦支持的恐怖分子实施， ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Financial Technology Theme Index (930986) decreased by 1.22% as of May 13, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [3] - Lakala (300773) led the gains with an increase of 4.01%, while Feitian Chengxin (300386) experienced the largest decline at 3.90% [3] - The Financial Technology ETF (516860) also fell by 1.29%, with the latest price at 1.22 yuan and a turnover rate of 5.18% during the trading session [3] Group 2 - The recent joint statement from a press conference on May 12 announced a suspension of 24% tariffs on Chinese goods for an initial 90 days, while retaining the option to impose an additional 10% tariff [3] - Shenwan Hongyuan noted that the reduction of tariffs by the U.S. directly benefits export chain enterprises, potentially leading to a short-term recovery in exports [4] - The Financial Technology ETF closely tracks the China Securities Financial Technology Theme Index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the financial technology sector [4] Group 3 - The Financial Technology ETF reached a new high in scale at 914 million yuan, with a significant increase of 42 million shares over the past week [4] - The ETF recorded a net inflow of 12.23 million yuan recently, with a total of 13.04 million yuan net inflow over the last five trading days [4] - Leveraged funds continue to invest in the Financial Technology ETF, with the latest margin buying amounting to 6.43 million yuan and a margin balance of 41.69 million yuan [5] Group 4 - As of May 12, 2025, the Financial Technology ETF has achieved a net value increase of 62.91% over the past year, ranking first among comparable funds [5] - The ETF's highest single-month return since inception was 55.92%, with an average monthly return of 10.57% [5] - The ETF's management fee is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10%, which are among the lowest in comparable funds [5] Group 5 - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Financial Technology Theme Index accounted for 53.28% of the index [6] - The top stocks include Tonghuashun (300033), Dongfang Caifu (300059), and Runhe Software (300339), with respective weights of 9.50%, 9.01%, and 7.29% [6][8]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08% while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.24% and 0.23% respectively [1] - The photovoltaic and HJT battery concepts showed strong performance, with stocks like Oujing Technology, GCL-Poly Energy, and Baoxin Technology hitting the daily limit [1] - The banking sector experienced fluctuations, with stocks such as Pudong Development Bank and Shanghai Bank reaching historical highs [1] Group 2 - The cross-border e-commerce concept was active, with companies like Huafang Co., Zhejiang Zhengte, and Qingdao Jinwang also hitting the daily limit [1] - Sectors such as military trade, national defense, aerospace, and commercial space saw declines [1] - Daily chemical, hotel and catering, banking, and coal sectors had the highest gains, while shipbuilding, aviation, electrical instruments, and mineral products faced the largest declines [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts gold prices may reach $6,000 per ounce by 2029, up from approximately $3,300, driven by U.S. policies and limited supply [1] - Hedge funds have increased bullish bets on Chinese stocks due to optimistic sentiment surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations, particularly among U.S. hedge funds [1] - Goldman Sachs expects Germany's defense spending to rise from 2.1% of GDP in 2024 to 3% by 2027, benefiting the defense industry significantly [2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs warns that if interest rate cuts do not materialize, short-term U.S. Treasury yields may face upward pressure due to a lack of supporting economic data [3] - Bank of America reports that global investors are reducing their exposure to the U.S. dollar, driven by concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook [5] - BlackRock notes that recent U.S.-China trade talks have yielded significant progress, which is expected to boost confidence in Chinese markets [4] Group 3 - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce indicates that tariffs may initially raise U.S. inflation before negatively impacting economic growth, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts [6] - Capital Economics predicts that OPEC+'s strategic shift will continue to exert downward pressure on oil prices until the end of 2026 [8] - BMO Capital Markets highlights an increased likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in June due to disappointing employment data [9] Group 4 - CITIC Securities suggests that strengthened export controls on strategic metals may lead to a revaluation of these assets, with prices expected to rise [7] - CITIC Securities also notes a recovery in risk appetite, with a focus on high-growth sectors and new themes following the release of Q1 reports [8] - Huatai Securities emphasizes the importance of implementing monetary policies introduced in May, while considering both domestic and U.S. economic factors [9] Group 5 - Huatai Securities is optimistic about the passenger vehicle sector maintaining high growth in Q2, driven by demand from trade-in policies and consumer incentives [10] - Huatai Securities anticipates a structural recovery in the home appliance sector in Q2, supported by domestic demand and export recovery [12] - China Galaxy Securities recommends focusing on "technology narrative" opportunities in the A-share market, alongside stable dividend-paying sectors [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the defense and military industry in China is experiencing significant growth, driven by recent geopolitical events, particularly the India-Pakistan conflict, which highlights the superiority of Chinese military equipment [1][3]. - The A-share defense and military sector saw a surge, with notable stocks like AVIC Chengfei reaching a daily limit increase and a record trading volume of 9.739 billion yuan [1]. - The Defense and Military ETF (512810) reached a peak increase of 5.95% during trading, closing at 1.269 yuan, marking a new high since November 15, 2024 [1]. Group 2 - The recent activity in the defense and military sector is primarily catalyzed by the India-Pakistan conflict, showcasing the advantages of China's military equipment across various operational domains [3]. - The current market trend is characterized by a revaluation of the defense and military sector, supported by positive quarterly reports from listed companies, indicating a potential for sustained growth [3]. - Investment opportunities are suggested in sub-sectors such as military trade and satellite internet, with the Defense and Military ETF (512810) being a recommended vehicle for investors [3]. Group 3 - The investment logic for the defense and military sector is evolving, with a shift from short-term earnings per share pricing to a focus on geopolitical factors and product marginal changes [4]. - The year 2025 is anticipated to be pivotal for China's military equipment upgrades, with strong demand in the military trade market and potential new procurement cycles [4]. - Long-term prospects indicate that the defense procurement system and industrial framework may undergo fundamental changes, leading to a restructuring of industry dynamics and company valuations [4].

长期而言，申万宏源认为，出口链是结果，而处于长期景气趋势的国产AI、国防军工、机器人是原 因。因此，维持对科技景气方向的战略看好。预计短期A股震荡且中枢抬升，长期重启A股结构牛，看 好科技板块。 （文章来源：广州日报） 当地时间5月12日，美股三大指数均大幅收涨，纳指涨4.35%，标普500指数涨3.26%，道指涨2.81%。其 中，中国资产爆发引发关注，热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数大幅收涨5.40%，创4月4日 以来新高。其中，佳裕达涨67.71%、世纪互联涨21.31%、盛大科技涨18.92%，万国数据、亿咖通科 技、BOSS直聘、乐信、涂鸦智能涨超10%。 消息面上，北京时间5月12日下午，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》（以下简称"联合声明"）发布， 大幅降低双边关税水平，引发全球市场关注，各国股市普涨。 其中，A股5月12日高开高走，上证指数收涨0.82%报3369.24点，深证成指涨1.72%，创业板指涨 2.63%。个股涨多跌少，4112只个股收涨。 那么，接下来A股将怎么走？市场分析人士普遍认为，联合声明向市场释放积极信号，短期内有望提振 投资者风险偏好，利好中国权益资产。 "中美贸 ...

Group 1 - Canadian Prime Minister Carney and UK Prime Minister Starmer agreed to strengthen trade, business, and defense relations [1]

德国财政部长：所有合作伙伴都认为德国在国防方面承担更大责任是正确的。 ...

2025 年 05 月 12 日 A 股供需格局展望重回临界值 ——申万宏源策略中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明点评 20250512 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 一、原有的市场预期：特朗普政策执行效果已明显偏离了米兰报告的设想。所以特朗普政 策应该调整，中美开启谈判进程在情理之中。特朗普政策调整速度偏慢、力度偏弱是基准 假设。这种情况下的基本面预期是二季度外需回落压力初步显现，三季度压力可能再加大。 A 股盈利能力会有额外下行压力，2025 年内盈利能力难有向上拐点，2026 年供给全面 出清后，才有供需格局改善的可能性。 ⚫ 二、中美日内瓦经贸会谈后的预期：4 月 2 日后额外加征的关税下修至 10%，90 天缓和 期与其他国家看齐，美国关税政策幅度超预期。二季度抢出口 + 美国批发零售企业对中 国商品超额回补，二季度中国经济验证可能维持强韧性。如果把美国调整后的关税水平线 性外推，2025H2 A 股供需格局可能重新回到"临界水平"，若国内刺激政策维持强势， 则 2025H2 有可能实现盈利能力改善，2026 年改善确定性再次提高。 ⚫ 后续依然值得关注的变化：特朗普对米兰报告可能只是回归了原 ...

通信行业周报（20250505-20250511） 推荐（维持） 印巴冲突持续升级，建议关注军工及卫星方向 ❑ 通信行业持续跟踪公司： 行业研究 通信 2025 年 05 月 11 日 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：欧子兴 邮箱：ouzixing@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080007 证券分析师：陆心媛 邮箱：luxinyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524040002 行业基本数据 相关研究报告 《通信行业 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报综述：业 绩稳步向上，聚焦细分领域的α机会》 2025-05-08 《通信行业周报（20250421-20250427）：IDC 行业 长期向好趋势显著，坚定看好行业未来发展》 2025-04-27 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 124 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 45,863.87 | 4.72 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 20,038.81 | 2.60 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | ...