研究所 底部区间，震荡偏强 ——国信期货有色（镍）周报 2 基本面分析 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 1.1 行情回顾——内外盘主力价格合约走势 研究所 0.00 50,000.00 100,000.00 150,000.00 200,000.00 250,000.00 300,000.00 2020/12/31 2021/02/28 2021/04/30 2021/06/30 2021/08/31 2021/10/31 2021/12/31 2022/02/28 2022/04/30 2022/06/30 2022/08/31 2022/10/31 2022/12/31 2023/02/28 2023/04/30 2023/06/30 2023/08/31 2023/10/31 2023/12/31 2024/02/29 2024/04/30 2024/06/30 2024/08/31 2024/10/31 2024/12/31 2025/02/28 2025/04/30 镍期货收盘价(主力合约)(单位：元/吨) 2025年05月18日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar indicates a strengthening of the Chinese economy and positive foreign sentiment towards the yuan [1][3][5]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The offshore yuan reached a high of 7.1780 against the US dollar, while the onshore yuan peaked at 7.1855, both marking the highest levels of the year [3]. - The recent surge in the yuan's value is compared to a significant recovery, reflecting a reversal from previous declines [5]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The appreciation of the yuan is seen as beneficial for Chinese citizens, making overseas travel and purchases more affordable [5]. - The stability of the Chinese economic fundamentals and effective macroeconomic policies are credited for the yuan's recovery [5][7]. Group 3: Public Sentiment - There is a general sense of optimism among the public regarding the yuan's performance, with some humorously suggesting its dominance in the global market [5]. - The public is encouraged to maintain a rational perspective on currency fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of steady economic practices [7].

日本央行审议委员中村豊明：制定政策时也需考虑日本经济的中长期基本面。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the bond futures market is experiencing a rise, with the 30-year main contract increasing by 0.24%, while interbank major interest rate bond yields are rebounding [1] - The recent reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut has taken effect, stabilizing liquidity rather than further easing, primarily due to the central bank's continuous net withdrawal and a higher government bond payment volume, which offset some of the RRR cut effects [1] - In the short term, attention should be paid to marginal changes in the funding environment; if the funding environment tightens, long-term yields may continue to fluctuate [1] Group 2 - The central bank has indicated that there will be future reductions in deposit rates and the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), which may lead to a further decline in yields [1] - For the year, the 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.4% and 1.9%, with a core fluctuation range of 1.5% to 1.7%. The downward opportunities in the bond market are linked to interest rate cut expectations and declining funding costs [1] - The政金债券ETF (511520) has seen a net inflow of over 1.5 billion in the past 10 days, with a total scale of approximately 46.2 billion, making it the largest bond ETF in the market and suitable for clients looking to adjust duration easily [1][2]

| | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | ITC 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | SUL | | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 | | | | | | | | | 农产品研究中心 | 杨璐琳 | 从业资格号:F3042528 | | | 2025/5/15 | | | | | | | | 纸浆价格数据 | | | | | | | | 2025年5月14日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年5月14日 | HMA | 周环比 | | | SP2505 | 5332 | 1. 91% | 2. 93% | | 针叶浆银星 | 6300 | 0. 00% | 1.61% | | 期货价格 | SP2507 | 5378 | 1. 93% | 4. 67% | 现货价 | 针织我针 | 5300 | 0. 00% | 2. 91% | | | SP2509 | 5308 | 1. 6 ...

事件评论 展望：2025 年基本面筑底，期待2026 年起的基本面弹性回升+估值改善。短期，新客高增、老客相对 稳定下预计2025 年仍可维持较优增速。中期，老客调整企稳叠加（次)新客户持续放量有望驱动新一轮 成长，积极产能扩张保障顺势时业绩弹性向上，行业格局优化叠加利润率恢复下，估值有望提升。预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润为40.3、46.7、54.8亿元，同比+5%、+16%、+17%，现价对应PE 为16、14、 12X，按70%分红比例下，2025 年对应股息率为4.3%，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 1、海外宏观经济波动； 2、品牌库存去化不及预期； 3、产能投放进度不及预期。 收入：销量延续增长，产品结构调整下单价提升。2025Q1 人民币口径，公司营收为53.5亿元（人民币 同比+12.3%/美元同比+11.2%），次新&新客归母净利润7.6 亿元（人民币同比-3.2%/美元同比-4.2%）， 归母净利率同比-2.3pct/环比-1.1pct 至14.2%。量价拆分来看，Q1 销量0.49 亿双（同比+8.2%），新（次 新）客户放量下销量延续增长，部分老客户预计承压；单价约108.4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company's fundamentals are expected to stabilize in 2025, with a rebound in performance and valuation anticipated starting in 2026. Short-term growth is supported by a significant increase in new customers, while existing customers remain stable, allowing for a favorable growth rate in 2025. In the medium term, the stabilization of existing customers combined with the continued growth of new customers is expected to drive a new growth cycle. Active capacity expansion is anticipated to enhance performance elasticity, and improvements in industry dynamics and profit margins are likely to lead to valuation uplift. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 40.3 billion, 46.7 billion, and 54.8 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 5%, 16%, and 17%, respectively. The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 16, 14, and 12 times for the respective years, with a projected dividend yield of 4.3% for 2025 based on a 70% payout ratio [2][4][6]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 760 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 3% year-on-year. The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 22.9%, down 5.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the ramp-up of a new factory. The company maintained strong cost control, with a decrease in expense ratios despite the pressure on profit margins [4][9].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of index-enhanced funds in the market is driven by the evolution of market conditions and the increasing demand from investors for more sophisticated investment tools [1] Group 1: Market Overview - As of the end of Q1 2025, there are 327 index-enhanced funds with a total scale exceeding 200 billion yuan, representing an increase of over 80% since the end of 2020 [1] - The demand for index-enhanced strategies is rising due to the maturation of investors and the deepening of capital markets [1] Group 2: Definition and Strategy - Quantitative index enhancement involves tracking benchmark indices while optimizing stock selection through quantitative models to pursue excess returns (Alpha) [2] - Index-enhanced funds combine passive tracking of indices with active management strategies, such as multi-factor models and AI stock selection, to achieve superior performance [3][4] Group 3: Performance Comparison - Over the past decade, index-enhanced funds have demonstrated significant excess returns, with the Wind index-enhanced fund index achieving a 24.88% increase, while the CSI 300 index and stock index funds saw returns of -18.05% and 2.26%, respectively [3][4] - As of May 12, 2025, the average return of CSI 300 index-enhanced funds is 25.48%, compared to 6.07% for regular CSI 300 index funds, indicating the effectiveness of the index enhancement strategy [7] Group 4: Mechanisms of Enhancement - Quantitative index enhancement typically involves two core components: modeling stock returns and optimizing the portfolio relative to the benchmark index [9] - The three main methods for achieving index enhancement include: 1. Multi-factor stock selection models that assess various factors such as value, momentum, and quality [10] 2. AI stock selection techniques that utilize machine learning and deep learning to identify patterns in historical data [11] 3. Fundamental enhancement strategies that analyze a company's financial health to optimize the investment portfolio [12] Group 5: Key Indicators for Selection - When selecting index-enhanced funds, important indicators to consider include annualized excess returns, tracking error, information ratio, maximum drawdown, and win rates [13]

021-60635736 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 钢材日评 日期 2024 年 5 月 15 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 5 月 14 日，螺纹钢、热卷期货主力合约 2510 低开高走，大幅上行；不锈钢 期货主力合约 2507 震荡上行。 表2：5月14日黑色系期货持仓情况（单位：手、%） | 合约 | 前 20 多头 | 前 20 空头 | 前 20 多头 | 前 20 空头 | 多空 | 偏离度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 持仓 | 持仓 | 持仓变化 | 持仓变化 | 对比 | | | RB2510 | 1,323,132 | 1,302,920 ...

宏观情绪好转，工业硅期货减仓上涨 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-15 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-05-14，工业硅期货价格反弹上涨，主力合约2506开于8305元/吨，最后收于8490元/吨，较前一日结算变化（225） 元/吨，变化（2.72）%。截止收盘，2505主力合约持仓146525手，2025-05-15仓单总数为66531手，较前一日变化 37手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9000-9200（0）元/吨；421#硅在9700-10300 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8200-8400（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8200-8400（0）元/吨。天津、西北、上海地区暂 稳。昆明、黄埔港、新疆、四川地区硅价个别硅价持续走低。97硅今日价格同样暂稳。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价11300-11600（0）元/吨。SMM报道，有机硅成本压力较大，但关税问题 缓解后，对有机硅终端产品出口利好较大，有机硅消费或好转，关注后续下游采购原料意愿。 整体来看，工业硅持续下跌后，由于宏观情绪好转，前期空单资金有获利离场，导致盘面减仓上行。基本面方面， ...