证券研究报告·策略报告·策略周评 策略周评 20250628 指数突破新高后，市场怎么走？ 2025 年 06 月 28 日 [Table_Summary] ◼ 近期市场呈现三大现象 现象一：沪指"三连阳"创年内新高后，资金急于寻找理由，但找到的理 由似乎都不足以解释这轮上涨。 现象二：上周（6/16-6/20，下同）路演交流中，明显感受到机构投资者偏 谨慎，港股部分本土及海外资金在今年新消费和医药行情中都有踏空。 现象三：情绪急剧反转，"三根阳线改变信仰"。上周投资者倾向落袋为安， 待回调再介入，但市场快速上涨后又转为乐观。 ◼ 核心解释框架：波动率的回归交易 怎么去解释近期市场的这三大现象？投资者们总是习惯于在市场上涨后， 从基本面中寻找能够解释走势的原因，然而这些原因似乎又都不够充分， 不足以支撑起股市的上行。事实上，真正导致本轮上涨的，是大家普遍低 估的一个要素——波动率。我们认为，本周（6/23-6/27，下同）沪指的"三 连阳"，本质上是波动率回归交易的结果。周一收盘时，上证指数 30 个交 易日的年化波动率降至 18.2%，创下近十年来新低，甚至低于 2018 年。市 场极端低波的状态，才是本轮 ...

Core Insights - Despite facing uncertainties from trade tensions and market expectations, China's industrial enterprises above designated size maintained a stable and positive development trend in the first five months of the year, particularly in the aerospace, aviation, and maritime industries, which are entering a rapid growth phase [1][2] Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In the first five months, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of 27,204.3 billion yuan, an increase of 6,034.1 billion yuan compared to January-April, but a year-on-year decline of 1.1% due to insufficient effective demand and falling industrial product prices [1][2] - The gross profit of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing to a 3.0 percentage point increase in overall profits [1] - Revenue from industrial enterprises increased by 2.7% year-on-year, indicating a sustained growth trend that creates favorable conditions for future profit recovery [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific Performance - The aerospace, aviation, and maritime industries saw significant profit growth, with profits in the railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace sectors increasing by 56.0% year-on-year [2] - Profits in aircraft manufacturing and spacecraft and rocket manufacturing grew by 120.7% and 28.6%, respectively, while related equipment manufacturing profits rose by 68.1% [2] - The shipbuilding and related equipment manufacturing sector experienced an 85.0% profit increase, with metal ship manufacturing profits soaring by 111.8% [2] Group 3: Economic Policy and Financing - The decline in profit growth for industrial enterprises indicates ongoing constraints from insufficient effective demand, necessitating more proactive macroeconomic policies and increased government investment in public goods [3] - The average interest rate for newly issued loans in May was approximately 3.2%, down about 50 basis points from the previous year, highlighting the need to boost effective financing demand [3] - The central bank's recent interest rate cut is expected to lower loan market rates, reducing the financial burden on industrial enterprises and aiding their recovery [3] Group 4: Policy Implementation and Sector Growth - Various regions and departments have intensified efforts to implement "two new" policies, effectively releasing domestic demand [4] - Profits in general and specialized equipment industries grew by 10.6% and 7.1% year-on-year, respectively, contributing 0.6 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth [4] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has shown significant effects, with profits in smart consumer device manufacturing and other household electrical appliance manufacturing increasing by 101.5% and 31.2%, respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of balancing total supply and total demand, enhancing macro policy coordination, and implementing both stock and incremental policies to stimulate economic recovery and growth [1] Group 1 - The meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee highlighted the need to strengthen domestic circulation as a priority [1] - There is a focus on fully utilizing existing policies and increasing the implementation of new policies to maximize their effects [1] - The aim is to expand domestic demand, stabilize expectations, and invigorate economic activity to promote sustained economic recovery [1]

铝类市场周报 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.27」 宏观预期VS淡季影响，铝类或将震荡运行 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号 F03123381 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 业务咨询 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：沪铝震荡偏强，周涨跌幅+0.56%，报20580元/吨。氧化铝低位反弹，周涨跌+3.32%，报2986元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，国内铝土矿港口库存有所回落，整体仍较充足；几内亚供给扰动事件有所缓和，但受雨季影 响雨季发运量或有所收减，铝土矿报价暂稳运行。供给方面，氧化铝国内供给量仍显宽松，进口大幅增加，国内在产 产能亦维持高位运行。需求方面，国内电解铝在产产能持稳运行，由于氧化铝原料供应偏宽松，冶炼厂库存预计相对 充足，生产情况稳定，对氧化铝需求亦保持相对稳定。总的来看，氧化铝基本面或处于，供给偏多、需求持稳的阶段， 铝土矿价格稳定为氧化铝提供部分成本支撑。 电解铝：基本面供给端，国内电 ...

2025 年 6 月 27 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 白银、铜、铝、锌、工业硅、多晶 硅、碳酸锂、螺纹钢、铁矿石、焦煤、纯碱、PVC 期货将偏 强震荡 原油、燃料油期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2509 阻力位 3928 和 3964 点，支撑位 3889 和 3872 点；IH2509 阻力位 2728 和 2750 点，支撑位 2697 和 2682 点；IC2509 阻力位 5771 和 5838 点，支撑位 5690 和 ...

Core Viewpoint - Palladium prices are gaining attention in the precious metals market, with expectations of breaking the 300 yuan/gram barrier amid significant increases in gold and platinum prices. However, achieving this goal requires careful consideration of supply-demand dynamics, industry changes, macroeconomic conditions, and capital flows [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The palladium market is at a critical juncture between traditional demand and emerging sectors. While traditional automotive demand remains dominant, it faces challenges from the shift towards electrification. Global sales of fuel vehicles are declining, but the rise of hybrid vehicles (HEV/PHEV) supports palladium demand, as they require three times more palladium than pure electric vehicles. Additionally, the commercialization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is accelerating, with each vehicle requiring 50-100 grams of palladium catalyst, potentially leading to a new growth point for palladium demand [1][3]. Supply Challenges - The palladium market faces significant supply challenges, with over 75% of global production concentrated in Russia and South Africa. Geopolitical risks and power crises are affecting these major producing countries. Western sanctions have limited palladium exports from Russia, while South Africa is experiencing frequent production cuts due to electricity shortages. Although recycling technology has improved, accounting for 15%-20% of total demand, it cannot fully compensate for the shortfall in primary mine supply [3]. Market Sentiment - Recent price increases in palladium are driven by market sentiment, influenced by the recovery of the automotive industry, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and supply chain restructuring. Global fuel vehicle sales rose by 4.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, breaking a three-year decline. Major automakers like Tesla and Volkswagen are accelerating their hybrid vehicle strategies, further boosting palladium demand. Additionally, production cuts in Russia and South Africa due to geopolitical tensions and extreme weather have led to the lowest visible global palladium inventory in nearly a decade, raising concerns about supply shortages [3][5]. Capital Flows - Palladium is becoming a key choice for capital seeking safe-haven assets due to its industrial and financial attributes. In the context of the Federal Reserve's hawkish policies causing divergence in the precious metals sector, palladium prices have risen against the trend. The A-share precious metals sector has seen significant net inflows into leading stocks, indicating strong market interest in palladium [5]. Technical Analysis and Price Trends - Technically, palladium prices are expected to maintain a short-term strong oscillation trend. Domestic palladium prices are fluctuating in the range of 272-274 yuan/gram, with an average price of 273 yuan/gram, up by 2 yuan from the previous day. International palladium prices have also risen, with spot palladium increasing by 8.00%, reaching a peak of 1149.99 USD/ounce. However, to break the 300 yuan/gram barrier, palladium must overcome several resistance levels, particularly at 250 yuan/gram and 265 yuan/gram [5]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term trajectory of palladium prices will depend on several key variables, including the stability of fuel vehicle sales and the continued increase in the share of hybrid vehicles, which are crucial for supporting traditional palladium demand. The acceleration of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle commercialization will also drive demand growth in emerging sectors. Furthermore, the stability of supply and advancements in palladium recycling technology will significantly impact palladium prices [7].

Group 1 - The total profit of industrial enterprises in China reached 2.7 trillion yuan in the first five months of this year, with a year-on-year decline of 1.1% [1] - The revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size was 54.76 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.7%, indicating a sustained growth trend in industrial revenue [1] - The equipment manufacturing industry maintained a high level of profitability, with profits increasing by 7.2% year-on-year in the first five months [3] Group 2 - The aerospace, aviation, and maritime industries experienced rapid growth, leading to a 56.0% year-on-year increase in profits for the railway, shipping, and aerospace sectors [5] - Specific industries such as aircraft manufacturing, spacecraft and launch vehicle manufacturing, and shipbuilding saw profit increases of 120.7%, 28.6%, and 85.0% respectively [5] Group 3 - The integration of technological and industrial innovation is enhancing the technical content of industrial products, with a continuous release of market demand for smart, green, and high-quality products, contributing to profit growth for related enterprises [7] - Proactive macroeconomic policies are expected to support stable industrial economic operations and create favorable conditions for improving industrial enterprise profitability [7] Group 4 - The total revenue of China's cultural industry reached 19.1423 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [13] - The profit of the cultural industry totaled 1.7737 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.291 trillion yuan, reflecting a 7.9% growth [13]

- FEHERED 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月27日 欢迎关注微信公众号 主力合约 品种 点评 操作建议 板块 IF2509 观察期指贴水状态,推荐尝试在中证1000品种上 IH2509 板块有所轮动,股指上方压力仍存 股指 择时逢回调买入贴水较深的09合约,并逢高卖出 IC2507 上方6300附近09看涨期权,形成备兑组合。 IM2509 T2509 单边策略上,期债可适当逢调整配置多单。期现策 临近月末,债市可能抢跑交易央行重启购债、6月PMI和7月初 TF2509 国债 略上,可以适当关注TS2509合约正套策略。适当 资金面贯松,总体来说期债面临短期波动但总体偏强格局或不 TS2509 关注做陡曲线。 改。 金融 TL 2509 持续关注美国通胀方面数据对美联储货币政策预期 的影响,国际金价在3300-3400美元区间波动, AU2508 贵金属 关税和宏观政策重新主导市场 美元指数疲软金银走势分化 继续尝试黄金虚值期权双卖策略:银价短期多头再 AG2508 次受到贯松预期驱动,目前价格在36-37美元区间 偏强震荡 集运指数 谨慎观望,预计08合约在1700 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-06-27 双焦显著去库，期货价格反弹 钢材：淡季表需稳定，成本支撑仍在 市场分析 昨日，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于2973元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3103元/吨。现货方面，根据钢联数据显示，五大材 钢材库存去化暂停，仅螺纹库存去化继续，表需微增。昨日，全国建材成交9.92万吨。 综合来看：螺纹方面，本周产量继续回升，库存小幅去化，淡季需求表现稳定。热卷方面，库存环比回升，产量 维持高位，热卷价格面临出口及国内消费挑战。整体来看，双焦超跌后叠加安全月检查，成本支撑仍在，且临近 国内宏观政策窗口期，钢材价格维持震荡。关注后续成材淡季需求及库存表现。 策略 单边：无 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：铁水产量微增，矿价小幅回升 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格小幅上涨。截至收盘，铁矿石主力2509合约收于705.5元/吨，涨幅0.64%。 现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅上涨，贸易商报价积极性一般，交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按 需补库为主。需求端，本期日均铁水产量242.29万吨， ...

6月26日，在《证券时报》主办的"2025金长江私募基金发展论坛暨第十届私募基金金长江奖颁奖典 礼"上，雪球资管凭借专业的资产配置能力、出色的产品业绩表现，荣获三项大奖： 公司奖 【北京雪球私募基金管理有限公司】 荣获【2024年度金长江奖快速成长私募基金公司】 基金经理奖 策略践行全球资产风险均衡配置，以追求长期稳定的绝对收益为目标，致力于为投资者提供风险和 波动可控、力争财富稳健增长的全天候资产配置组合。 策略与股票、债券、商品等单一资产及其它 策略均呈现低相关性，能够有效对抗系统性风险的同时平滑波动，获取长期经济增长的收益回报。 股票多头策略基金经理【陈俊涛】 荣获【2024年度金长江奖年度新锐私募基金经理】 《证券时报》作为人民日报社主管主办的主流证券类专业媒体，对包括私募基金在内的机构投资者 一直秉持着客观、公正、专业的原则，广泛、及时、深入报道行业动态，传递监管信息，反映投资 者声音，享有极高的行业影响力和权威性。历届中国私募基金金长江奖评选吸引数百家规模和业绩 具有代表性的私募机构参评，目前已成为中国资本市场历史悠久、备受认可的业内权威奖项之一。 雪球资管作为雪球旗下的资产管理平台，定位于前沿资 ...