Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy stance is considered to be in a "good place," with risks between the U.S. labor market and inflation targets becoming more balanced [1] - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive time since the rate cut cycle began last September [3] - Federal Reserve officials generally anticipate a potential slowdown in U.S. economic growth, with rising inflation pressures and a slight increase in the unemployment rate [3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller suggested that rate cuts could begin as early as July, while Mary Daly expressed a more cautious view, indicating that actions are more likely in the fall [5] - Daly emphasized that monetary policy adjustments should be based on actual economic data rather than preset paths, highlighting the challenges of communication within the Federal Reserve [5] - The Federal Reserve's future policy adjustments will heavily depend on key indicators such as inflation, employment, and economic growth, as the U.S. economy faces multiple challenges [7]

半年度报告-美豆&豆粕 等待驱动，价格运行中枢上移 [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 报告日期： [Table_Summary] ★美豆 25/26 年度平衡表或趋紧 迄今为止美豆主产区天气良好，但7-8月才是决定单产的关键时期。 EPA 政策利好美豆压榨，但受限于产能、美豆压榨继续上调的空 间或有限；受特朗普政策影响，未来美豆出口变化可能很大，但预 计最坏情况也不会差于第一轮贸易战时期。我们测算美国 25/26 年 度平衡表大概率较上年度更紧张，这也就意味着 CBOT 大豆价格 震荡/震荡向上的概率更大。 ★预计豆粕价格运行中枢上移 农 产 品 CBOT 大豆震荡或震荡上行，而随着 7 月巴西玉米上市出口增加， 大豆出口将逐月递减，巴西出口 CNF 升贴水则将逐月抬升，两者 共同影响下国内进口大豆成本也将逐渐增加，对远月豆粕期价形成 支撑。现货供需上，当前豆粕处于季节性累库周期，但由于需求好 于预期，豆粕累库速度较慢。此外，国内豆粕压力最大的时候预计 出现在 7 月底-8 月，随后豆粕库存将出现拐点。如果我国 4 季度完 全不进口美豆，届时豆粕现货还可能出现紧缺。 ★后市展望 预计 CBOT 大豆难再跌破 ...

投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/6/23 | 指标 | | 6月20日 | 涨跌 | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 13 | 10 | 2500 г 2000 | ===== 19/20 ===== 20/21 ===== 21/22 ===== 22/23 -- 23/24 | | | 24/25 | | | 天津 | -87 | 10 | 1500 1000 | | | | | | | 日照 | -137 | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | -127 | 10 | -500 | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 09/21 | 10/22 11/22 12/23 01/23 02/23 03/25 04/25 05/26 06/26 07/27 08/27 | | | | | | 东莞 | -147 | 10 | | M9-M1 | | | | | | 湛江 | -11 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（6.16~6.20） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜冲高回落，沪铜主力合约下跌0.03%，收报于77990元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价,美 国关税再起波澜，伊以摩擦加剧，全球不确定加强。国内方面，消费进入淡季，目前来看下游消费意 愿一般。产业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚需交易为主。库存方面，铜库存LME库存99200吨， 上周出现小幅减少，上期所铜库存较上周减1129吨至100814吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡，2025过剩 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | ...

钴行业专家会： 刚果金再延长 3 个月出口禁令，影响如何 看待？20250622 摘要 刚果金延长钴出口禁令旨在消化中国高企的钴原料库存，此前禁令曾推 动钴原料价格上涨近 100%，金属钴价格上涨约 50%，原料价格上涨速 度明显快于成品。 中国钴原料进口量在禁令前四个月并未减少，但库存仍未完全消化。预 计 7 月后，中国企业可能面临原料短缺，中小企业或率先停产，大型企 业也将降低产能。 钴价未来走势或分两阶段：短期内受刚果金政策影响，电子盘和现货市 场价格波动；7 月底至 8 月中旬，企业原料库存不足可能再次推高价格， 并引发产业链生产结构调整。 目前钴供应增速仍大于需求增速，短期内供需基本面不会显著变化。国 内厂商需应对 7 月份可能出现的进口量减少，前期库存（包括原材料和 贸易商库存）是关键。 行业库存约七八万吨，原料端占比约 50%。若无锡电子盘涨至 24-25 万元，可能出现获利了结，影响工期。原料端价格预计上涨幅度大于金 属钴。 Q&A 刚果金最近发布的政策对钴行业有哪些影响？ 刚果金政府最近发布了一项文件，主要内容包括延长禁止出口钴的禁令。这一 禁令将从 6 月 22 日开始，再延长三个月，涉及 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the impact of the escalating Israel-Iran conflict on the oil and gas industry, logistics, and various sectors including aviation, express delivery, and chemicals [1][2][4][5][9]. Core Insights and Arguments Oil and Gas Industry - The Israel-Iran conflict has intensified following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, with the Strait of Hormuz being a critical oil transport route, accounting for 20% of global oil liquid consumption, approximately 20 million barrels per day [1][2][3]. - If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil prices could surge to $120-$130 per barrel, leading to energy inflation and significant impacts on various sectors, particularly aviation [1][2][5]. - VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates have increased dramatically from 22,000 yuan to over 50,000 yuan, indicating that freight performance has outpaced stock price movements for companies like COSCO Shipping Energy [1][4]. Aviation Sector - A potential rise in oil prices to $130 per barrel would significantly affect airline stocks, as fuel surcharges may not fully cover increased costs, potentially suppressing demand [5][6]. - Historical data suggests that airline stock prices are more influenced by supply-demand dynamics rather than temporary spikes in fuel prices, indicating a need for strategic adjustments in investment [6]. Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery sector is experiencing a reduction in price wars, with companies like YTO Express raising prices, indicating a stabilization in pricing pressures [7]. - The application of unmanned vehicles in last-mile delivery is advancing, reducing costs by 0.6 to 0.8 yuan per parcel, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency [7][8]. Chemical Industry - The chemical products price index has risen to 4,210 points, driven by increasing oil prices, although demand seasonality limits the ability to pass on costs, leading to heightened cost pressures [9][10]. - The polyester POY price has increased by 3.6%, but the profit margins are narrowing due to seasonal demand constraints [10]. Fertilizer and Agricultural Chemicals - The price of potassium fertilizer has surged due to supply constraints from Israel, with domestic prices rising by 80 yuan to 3,040 yuan, indicating further potential for price increases [12]. - The pesticide sector is witnessing price increases, particularly for chlorantraniliprole, which has risen by 80,000 yuan per ton due to supply chain disruptions [11]. Metals Market - Gold prices have continued to decline, but the risk premium may rise due to the severity of the conflict, with potential for prices to reach around $3,400 per ounce [16]. - Cobalt prices are expected to rise following the extension of export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which holds a significant share of global cobalt production [17]. Coal Industry - The coal sector is experiencing mixed performance, with a decline in demand but potential for increased utilization in coal chemical processes due to high oil prices [19][20]. - Recent price increases in coal, particularly in the power sector, suggest a potential rebound in demand as electricity consumption rises [22]. Other Important Insights - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the U.S. sanctions on Iran and OPEC's production adjustments, will significantly influence global oil supply and pricing dynamics [25][26]. - Investment strategies should focus on companies with strong dividend yields and those positioned to benefit from rising commodity prices, such as coal and energy firms [23][28]. This summary encapsulates the critical developments and insights from the conference call records, highlighting the interconnectedness of geopolitical events and their implications across various industries.

聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月23日 免费声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料、但厂发期货对这些信息的能确性及完整体不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人 员的不同观点、见解及分析方法。并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。 在任何情况下。 报告内容仅供参考,报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不 风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士,题权归广发期货所有,未经 构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价。 投资者据此投资, 广发期货书面授权. 任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发、需注明出处为广发期货。 6 关注微信公众号 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 张晓珍 Z0003135 些业期现日报 | 品中 | 6月20日 | 6月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 7347 | 7399 | -55 | -0.70% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7415 | 7462 | -47 | -0.63% ...

Core Viewpoint - The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Mary Daly, believes that the current monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve is "good," with risks to U.S. employment and price stability being roughly balanced [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - Daly emphasized the importance of formulating policies based on changing environments while keeping in mind the dual goals of employment and price stability [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in the scale of share placements in the Hong Kong stock market, with 252 companies announcing placements totaling HKD 1,476.21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 279.57% [1] - The Hong Kong stock placement mechanism allows companies to issue new shares or sell existing shares to specific investors without needing additional shareholder approval, providing flexibility in fundraising [1] - The surge in share placements is attributed to improved market conditions, leading industry leaders to bolster cash reserves amid global asset rebalancing [1][3] Group 2 - The Hong Kong market has seen a notable improvement in investor confidence, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 17.3% year-to-date, enhancing the attractiveness of Hong Kong assets and creating a favorable environment for refinancing [2] - Leading companies in sectors such as new consumption, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology are seizing the refinancing "window" to strengthen cash flow for significant R&D investments and business expansion [3] - International capital is returning to the Hong Kong market, showing optimism towards the long-term growth potential of core industries like biotechnology and new energy [3] Group 3 - Many companies' placement lists include foreign institutional investors, indicating strong international interest; for instance, 80% of the placement by Kelun-Botai Bio was allocated to international investors [4] - Concerns have been raised about potential "over-extraction" from the market due to high-volume placements, but regulatory constraints limit placements to 20% of share capital, ensuring a balance between short-term financing needs and long-term market trust [4]

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货原油周报 地缘风波再起，打开油价上涨空间 20250622 黄秀仕 交易咨询号：Z0018307 从业资格号：F03106904 0769-22110802 审核：陈小国 交易咨询号：Z0021111 周度观点及策略 周度观点 ◆ 库存：当周美国商业原油库存下降，但汽油和馏分油库存增加。美国原油库存下降1150万桶，该降幅为自2024年6月28日当周以来最大，此前市场预期为减少180万 桶。当周美国原油库存为4.209亿桶，为自1月以来最低水平。美国战略石油储备(SPR)增加20万桶，至4.023亿桶。美国库欣的原油库存减少995.000桶。美国汽油库 存增加209,000桶，至2.300亿桶，此前市场预期为增加60万桶。美国包括柴油和取暖油的馏分油库存增加514,000桶，至1.094亿桶，此前市场预期为增加40万桶。 当周美国原油净进口量减少175万桶/日，美国原油出口量增加110万桶/日至440万桶/日。 ◆ 供应：受到地缘因素影响，伊朗300万桶/日的原油供应可能受到威胁，同时市场担忧霍尔木兹海峡通航受阻，涉及1600万桶/日的原油供给；上 ...