股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年7月1日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 策略推荐 持仓观望 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 股指延续收涨，期指均贴水加深 市场回顾 今日股指震荡偏强，以沪深300指数为例，收盘上涨0.17%。从资金面来看，两市成交额减少208.42亿元。期 指方面，IF缩量下跌，IH、IC缩量上涨，IM放量下跌。 重要资讯 1. 距离7月9日"关税大限"仅剩10天之际，特朗普明确表态称，无需延长即将到期的关税期限，将直接向数 百个国家发函通知关税税率，不再一一继续进行贸易谈判。 核心观点 今日股指延续收涨，两市成交额持续缩量。一方面当前信息面较平淡，缺乏驱动指数上行的利好信息，另一 方面，近期持续下行的美元指数已创三年新低，人民币汇率后续能否继续保持强劲为A股提供上行动力有待观 察。同时从今日盘面信息来看，红利指数领涨，各期指基差均贴水加深，表明当前市场情绪偏谨慎。总的来 说，当前股指缺乏持续上行的驱动，此轮上涨能否延续有待观望，若两市成交额持续缩量、上行动能减弱的 情况下，预计短期或将迎来调整。 source： wind,南华研究 股指日报现 ...

（转载请注明出处：微信公众号 lixunlei0722 ） 人民币国际化是一项长期任务，但国际化进程与中国经济在全球地位提升相比还是慢了。本文探讨人民币国际化进程加快的可能性，并对 由此带来的利弊进行分析。马克思曾在《资本论》中写道：从商品到货币的过程是一次惊险的跳跃。那么，人民币从当前状态锐变为全球 认可度很高的国际货币，是否也会是惊险一跃？本文主要从"流动性溢价"角度来论述人民币加快国际化步伐的可行性及意义。 本文要点： 人民币适度升值将一定程度上降低对于年度 GDP 增速的下限要求，避免过多通过投资"快变量"拉动经济增长，有助于经济结构 转型。 当前人民币国际化水平与中国经济体量不相匹配。人民币在外汇交易、国际支付、贸易融资、储备货币等方面的国际占比远低于 经济体量占比。 人民币支付在全球份额或存在低估。货币互换协议和 CIPS 的使用规模明显增加， SWIFT 对人民币支付的统计不完全，实际人民 币支付结算比例估计在 8% 左右。但人民币支付存在地域方面较为狭小的问题，国际支付主要发生在香港，占比超过 7 成。 历史经验表明，加速人民币国际化并不必然导致人民币贬值。我国 2005 年汇改后，人民币对美 ...

Group 1 - The report from the Bank of China Research Institute indicates that the pressure for RMB depreciation has significantly eased, and the exchange rate is expected to remain stable at a reasonable equilibrium level in the second half of 2025 [1] - In the first half of 2025, the RMB faced significant depreciation pressure due to factors such as the US "reciprocal tariff" policy, but after high-level economic talks between China and the US, the RMB appreciated against the USD [1] - As of June 25, the RMB's central parity, onshore spot, and offshore spot exchange rates have converged around 7.17, indicating a reduction in the divergence between onshore and offshore rates [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that the capital market recovery has accelerated the inflow of foreign capital, which positively contributes to the stability of the RMB exchange rate [2] - Since October of the previous year, the trading volume of the Stock Connect (where Hong Kong or foreign capital purchases A-shares) has significantly exceeded previous levels, and this trend is expected to continue [2] - The anticipated inflow of foreign capital is expected to support the balance of international payments and the stability of the exchange rate [2]

Core Viewpoint - The New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) experienced a significant rebound, rising over 2% and achieving its largest single-day appreciation since early May, following aggressive currency purchases by public banks to prevent further appreciation [1] Group 1: Currency Movement - The NTD opened sharply higher, closing at 29.185 against the US dollar, reflecting a 2.4% increase [1] - The previous day, the NTD had a dramatic decline, falling by 2.5%, marking its largest single-day drop in over 20 years [1] Group 2: Market Volatility - The currency market has seen intense fluctuations over the past two days, indicating a period of high volatility [1] - The sharp movements in the NTD highlight the impact of government intervention in currency markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate has decreased by 0.50%, currently standing at 0.7889 [1] Group 1 - The USD/CHF pair is experiencing a decline in value [1] - The current exchange rate reflects a significant movement in the currency market [1] - The decrease in the USD/CHF rate may indicate shifts in investor sentiment or economic conditions [1]

在岸人民币兑美元北京时间16:30官方收报7.1618，较上一交易日官方收盘价涨38点，较上日夜盘收盘 涨18点。 ...

智通财经7月1日电，新加坡元兑美元汇率升至1.2700，为2014年10月以来的最高水平。 ...

在岸人民币兑美元7月1日16:30收盘报7.1618，较上一交易日上涨38点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President, Luis de Guindos, indicate that while the euro's rise above 1.20 against the dollar could complicate matters for policymakers, the current levels are not a cause for concern [1] Group 1 - The ECB Vice President stated that the speed of the euro's increase is more concerning than its current level [1] - Levels around 1.17 or even 1.20 are not seen as problematic and can be overlooked [1] - A rise above 1.20 would lead to more complex situations for the ECB [1]

智通财经7月1日电，瑞郎兑美元创10年新高，最新上涨0.31%报0.790。 ...