中金研究 5月9日，央行发布《2025年第1季度中国货币政策执行报告》[1]（后文简称《报告》），强调当前外部环境更趋复杂严峻，要以高质量发展和政策的确 定性应对外部的不确定性。央行将积极落地5月推出的一揽子金融政策，降准降息落地后，我们预计央行或将择机恢复国债买卖，结构性工具亦有空 间，在落实好适度宽松的货币政策的同时，央行强调平衡好支持实体与银行健康的关系。同时央行指出，我国正加速向以内需为主导的增长模式转 型，提振物价的关键在于加强政策合力、扩大有效需求、关键是提振消费需求，央行将进一步完善金融服务支持扩大消费，同时从资产负债结构和资 产收益能力看，中国政府债务扩张仍有可持续性。 点击小程序查看报告原文 以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境的不确定性。 央行强调"外部冲击影响加大，世界经济增长动能不足，贸易保护主义抬头，地缘冲突持续存在"，有 效需求增长动力不足、部分企业经营困难、就业增收面临压力，要以"高质量发展的确定性"和"有力有效的政策"以应对"外部环境的不确定性"，并强调实 现今年经济社会发展预期目标有潜力、有支撑。报告 在货币政策定调中新增"灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏"， 综合运用准备金、再贷款 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of stabilizing prices and promoting reasonable price recovery through a combination of monetary and fiscal policies [1][2][3] - The April CPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, reversing a previous decline, driven by rising food and travel service prices, indicating the effectiveness of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and consumption [1] - The central bank's report highlights that the key to boosting prices lies in expanding effective demand and ensuring smooth supply-demand cycles, while also addressing structural issues in the economy [2][3] Group 2 - The report indicates that total demand remains weak due to various uncertainties, including global growth slowdown and the ongoing transformation of China's economic structure, which requires time for new growth drivers to fill the gap left by traditional drivers [2] - There is a recognition of excessive competition in certain industries, which has exacerbated supply-demand imbalances due to a historical focus on investment-driven capacity expansion [2][3] - A coordinated approach involving fiscal, monetary, industrial, employment, and social policies is necessary to achieve a balance between supply and demand, and to promote reasonable price recovery [3]

Group 1 - The central government has emphasized the need for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, with the People's Bank of China (PBOC) announcing a series of measures including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions [2][5] - The PBOC's recent report indicates that monetary policy will continue to support the economy, focusing on implementation and effectiveness evaluation [2][5] - The report highlights the need for increased counter-cyclical adjustments due to external uncertainties affecting exports, particularly from U.S. tariff policies [3][4] Group 2 - The government is accelerating the issuance of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds to support fiscal policy, with a planned issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in special bonds [4] - The PBOC aims to ensure sufficient liquidity in the market to support these fiscal measures, indicating a continued loose monetary environment [6][7] - The report outlines specific policy tools to support sectors such as technology finance, green finance, and small and micro enterprises, with a total of 1.1 trillion yuan in new funding [7] Group 3 - The PBOC is maintaining a focus on the stability of the financial markets, particularly in the context of recent fluctuations in the international financial markets due to U.S. trade policies [4][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of a balanced approach between supporting the real economy and maintaining the health of the banking system, reflecting concerns over banks' net interest margins [5][9] - The PBOC's assessment of government debt sustainability indicates that China's fiscal policy still has room for expansion, supporting the notion of continued monetary easing [10] Group 4 - The report expands its focus to include various economic indicators, such as the evolution of medium-term lending facilities (MLF) and the sustainability of government debt, reflecting a comprehensive approach to monetary policy [9][10] - The PBOC acknowledges the current low inflation environment and the need for policies that stimulate effective demand while managing supply-side constraints [10][11] - The overall strategy involves deepening structural reforms and coordinating various policy measures to achieve a balance between supply and demand, while fostering a conducive environment for reasonable price recovery [11]

每经记者｜唐俊 每经编辑｜刘艳美 今年一季度，我国经济延续稳中向好、稳中回升的态势，同比增长5.4%，不仅高于去年全年5%的增速，也高于去年一季度5.3%的增速。 城市表现则出现分化。其中，榆林、洛阳、曲靖、柳州等区域经济重镇，一季度GDP均出现负增长，也就是经济总量比去年同期更低。这些城市均为省内经 济第二城，其经济发展对地方经济影响较大。 值得注意的是，这几座城市一季度GDP实际增速均为正，这是因为实际增速按不变价格计算，考虑了物价变动的影响。而不考虑价格变化直接比较GDP数值 得出的增速，被称为名义增速。 图片来源：摄图网_500421500 例如柳州，近年来GDP实际增速基本保持正增长，但2024年的GDP比2018年还低，经济总量"停滞不前"。 实际增速为正、名义增速为负，通常出现在当地物价水平下降时期。一季度，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比下降0.1%，全国工业生产者出厂价格指数 （PPI）同比下降2.3%。PPI下降较多，对工业产品影响较大，而上述四座城市，无一例外都是传统工业城市。 在中西部地区，除了各大省会城市，榆林的GDP最高，由此获得了一个响亮的名号——中西部非省会第一城。如果论人均 ...

美联储理事库格勒：贸易政策正在转变，但仍可能导致物价上涨和经济增长放缓。 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a growing gap between income and actual living costs for low-income families in the U.S., with a shortfall exceeding $29,000 for the bottom 60% of households [1] - The study indicates that traditional inflation metrics fail to accurately reflect the economic pressures faced by these families, as their spending on necessities is disproportionately high compared to wealthier households [1][2] - Since 2001, the median household income in the U.S. has decreased by 4% when adjusted for the "Minimum Quality of Life Index," while the commonly used Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows an 11% increase in income during the same period [1] Group 2 - The rising cost of child-rearing has significantly contributed to the economic strain on low-income families, with expenses for raising children more than doubling since 2001, exceeding $30,000 for a typical family of four in 2023 [2] - High-income families have experienced stable economic surpluses, maintaining over 60% above the minimum quality of life standard, with an average annual income of approximately $200,000 in 2023, leaving a surplus of nearly $128,000 after basic living expenses [2]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 景气向上 1 、出行链：地铁客运及航班略有回升。地铁 ， 5 月前 8 日， 27 城地铁客运日均 8098 万人，同 比 +2.5% ； 4 月日均 8047 万人，同比 +0.6% 。 航班 ， 5 月前 10 日，国内航班日均执行 1.325 万架次，同比 +3.3% 。 4 月日均 1.28 万架次，同比 +3.6% 。 2 、土地：周度溢价率再度回升。 截至 5 月 4 日当周，百城土地溢价率为 12.37% ， 4 月 为 9.63% ； 3 月全月为 13.24% 。 3 、物价：国外品种偏强 ，油、金、铜价上涨。 COMEX 黄金收于 3326.3 美金 / 盎司，上涨 3.1% ； LME 三个月铜价收于 9432 美元 / 吨，上涨 2.7% ；美油收于 61.02 美元 / 桶，上涨 4.7% ， 布油收于 63.91 美元 / 桶，上涨 4.3% 。 景气向下 1 、外贸：美国进口高频边际回落。 从海运进口提单数据看，美国进口金额和数量环 ...

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month in April, while it decreased by 0.1% year-on-year. The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 2.7% year-on-year, indicating a moderate recovery in market demand supported by domestic demand expansion policies [1] - The decline in international prices of crude oil and non-ferrous metals such as aluminum, zinc, and copper has exerted downward pressure on domestic prices, contributing to the year-on-year decrease in CPI. However, the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.5%, maintaining stability [1] - Some industrial sectors, such as black metal smelting and non-metallic mineral products, showed a narrowing decline in prices year-on-year, while industries like smart manufacturing and high-end equipment manufacturing experienced price increases [1] Group 2 - Recent macroeconomic policies signal a sustained effort to support economic stability, with measures aimed at stabilizing employment and promoting high-quality development. New policies, including fiscal measures to boost consumption and infrastructure investment, are expected to be introduced soon [2] - The strong demand for holiday tourism is anticipated to further release consumer potential, leading to price increases in related services [2] - In the medium to long term, the ongoing structural transformation and industrial upgrading in the economy are expected to lead to a more balanced supply-demand relationship, with a smoother economic cycle and a moderately loose monetary environment [2]

报告导读： CPI环比动能回升主因食品和出行价格等季节性因素，短中期来看，贸易摩 擦的高度不确定性和国内私人部门资产负债表的弱修复是制约物价弹性的两大约束。在 此背景下，政策更加重视物价调控，下半年货币政策仍有继续发力的空间。 政策更加重视物价调控。传统经济和新经济的分化下，通胀呈现低位回升的特征。 央行超预期降准降息， 显示政策对于物价调控的重视。贸易摩擦的高度不确定性和国内私人部门资产负债表的弱修复是制约物价 弹性的两大约束，下半年货币政策仍有继续发力的空间。 风险提示： 地产尾部压力依然存在、消费修复动能不及预期。 文章来源 本文摘自：2025年5月10日发布的 提振通胀-货币有望更积极 ——2025年4月物价数据点评 梁中华 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040019 韩朝辉 ，资格证书编号： S0880523110001 4 月通胀保持低位修复态势。 CPI 环比动能高于季节性，主因食品和出行价格回升，服务价格韧性。 PPI 环比位于季节性下沿，上游原材料和耐用消费品是主要拖累。 4 月出口大超预期之下 PPI 低位徘徊反映 贸易企业"以价换量"的应对策略，开工旺季较往年推迟也影响了 PPI 的 ...

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