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“新禁酒令”又来了?白酒个股闻风下跌,业内认为“无实质影响”| 焦点
Tai Mei Ti A P P· 2025-05-19 11:45
(图片系AI生成) 5月18日,中共中央、国务院修订发布的《党政机关厉行节约反对浪费条例》(以下简称《条例》)明 确规定,公务接待工作餐"不得提供香烟,不上酒"。 笔者注意到,目前市场将这一政策视为"新禁酒令",预计会引发白酒行业短期波动。19日开盘,白酒股 集体走低,其中头部几家领跌,似乎印证了上述猜想。 不过,业内对此并不担忧。实际上,这些年全国各地的"禁酒令"已相对常态化,但政务消费退潮后白酒 也已实现消费转型。眼下,白酒更应专注应对周期挑战。 "禁酒令"常态化下白酒政务消费已退潮 早在2013年白酒受多重因素影响进入调整期后,白酒企业就被迫向商务和个人消费转型。因此政务白酒 消费潮早已褪去,如今在整个白酒消费市场占比较低。 目前业内普遍认为,此次"新禁酒令"的影响如以往一样,更多是催化市场情绪短期波动,长期看对白酒 行业无实质影响。 中国酒业独立评论人肖竹青认为,在2013年之前,中国高端白酒是由公款消费支撑,2013年中央八项规 定之后,中国高端白酒是有高净值人群和各行各业的民营企业家成为中国高端白酒主力的消费人群。 "此次重新学习八项规定,短期会引起股市波动,长期而言不会有大的影响,因为高端白酒消 ...
公务接待不供酒新规出台,茅台张德芹:发自内心赞成;专家称“白酒政务消费比例不超5%”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-19 11:37
FST PLAN NE # # e with - Hall THE HEA the state and and the later of the 605519 贵州茅台酒股份有限公司 2024年度股东大会 出品|搜狐财经 作者|饶婷 闫思羽 编辑|李文贤 5月19日,贵州茅台2024年度股东大会在茅台会议中心召开。 大会前夕,公务接待不供酒的新规出台,在资本市场引发连锁反应。 贵州茅台董事长张德芹在股东大会上回应称,发自内心赞成公务接待不供酒新规,该让中国白酒回归初心。 多位专家向搜狐财经表示,白酒消费中政务消费的比例已经很低,此次条例的颁布对白酒行业的影响有限。 "目前中国白酒政务消费的比例普遍认为不高于5%。"搜狐酒业发展研究院专家蔡学飞认为,新规必然会导致酒类消费市场进一步收紧,但是影响很有限。 香颂资本执行董事沈萌也表示,此事对实际公务接待用酒的消费量和白酒板块的投资逻辑影响都有限。 "作为一个白酒从业者,发自内心的赞成这项规定",张德芹认为,该让中国白酒回归初心,"以之成礼、以之养老、以之成欢"就是初心。 张德芹坦言,面对消费场景的改变,投资者有担忧,我们很理解,但请大家相信茅台的质量、文化、根基不 ...
贵州茅台董事长张德芹:三个相信
证券时报· 2025-05-19 09:52
5月19日,贵州茅台(600519)2024年度股东大会在茅台会议中心举行。 针对投资者对白酒行业现状的担忧,贵州茅台酒股份有限公司党委书记、董事长张德芹用"三个相信",与 投资者分享了对白酒行业现状的看法及茅台的应对。 张德芹认为,应该让中国白酒回归初心。他表示,"以之成礼、以之养老、以之成欢"就是初心。面对消费 场景的改变,投资者有担忧,我们很理解,但请大家相信,相信茅台的质量、文化、根基不会动摇;相信 茅台的创新能力、自我调节能力不会倒退;相信茅台的服务意识、服务能力不会掉队。只要度过这个周 期,就会让茅台这个民族品牌焕发出更加夺目的光彩,不辜负各位投资者的期望,担当起更大的责任。 来源:e公司 责编:万健祎 校对:杨立林 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容,未经书面授权,任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理,微信ID:SecuritiesTimes END 点击关键字可查看 潜望系列深度报道丨 股事会专栏 丨 投资小红书 丨 e公司调查 丨 时报会客厅 丨 十大明星私募访谈 丨 深交所沙雁:"稳稳的中国"为全球投资者提供投资兴业的沃 ...
往瓶里塞钱的老村长,中国白酒的营销奇才
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-19 07:29
经常喝酒的朋友都知道,当你想要讲点什么又感到语塞,那就说都在酒里了。 酒,就是一种容器。里面什么都有。有乾坤,有江湖,有人情世故,还有钱。 最近,从老村长白酒的瓶盖里开出钱,已经成了短视频软件和社交平台上的流量热点。 一般是拧开一瓶老村长,发现倒不出来。从口入,初极狭,才半指,复抠十几下,豁然开朗,然后拉开一张皱皱巴巴但购买力绝不打折的纸币。 对,钱,人民币。 "老村长酒真有钱吗?"直接被干成了大众热搜。那到底有钱没有?真有。评论区大家都说了,这多少年前我就中过。 还有网友讲:"老村长一直都有,我还中过美金"。至于网友是不是瞎说的,据咱们考证,没毛病,十几年前老村长酒确实曾在瓶盖里塞过美金。 虽然基本是以一美元面值为主。但那也是不掺假的美刀,US dollar。 在这个优惠需要数算,好评才能返现的年代,直接在瓶里塞钱这种营销行为看着是如此先锋,又如此复古。用石家庄一位哲学家的话说,那就是痛快!我 就喜欢你这脾气。 更神奇的是,这事老村长酒居然干了这么多年到现在。很多年轻一代的网友哪见过这个,直接就隔空唱《征服》了。 殊不知,这往瓶里塞钱,只是老村长营销Play的一环。而已。 营销这一块,老村长在中国白酒里是一 ...
珍酒李渡:稳居上市酒企第九,增长含金量诠释白酒新势力
He Xun Wang· 2025-05-19 03:00
Industry Overview - The Chinese liquor industry is currently facing dual pressures from weakening consumer expectations and ongoing industry differentiation, leading to overall industry challenges with minimal growth [1] - Revenue and net profit growth for the liquor industry is projected to decline to single digits in 2024, with a slow recovery in Q1 2025, showing only 2.3% and 2.6% year-on-year growth respectively [1] Company Performance - Zhenjiu Lidu, a new player in the liquor capital market, successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on April 27, 2023, becoming the only liquor company to go public in nearly nine years [4] - In its first year post-listing, Zhenjiu Lidu ranked ninth among liquor listed companies, demonstrating strong operational resilience and risk management capabilities amid industry adjustments [4] - For 2024, Zhenjiu Lidu maintained its ninth position, confirming its robust business performance despite industry challenges [4] Financial Highlights - Zhenjiu Lidu reported a revenue of 7.07 billion yuan and an adjusted net profit of 1.68 billion yuan, both achieving positive growth [5] - The company's gross margin increased to 58.6%, and the adjusted net profit margin rose to 23.7%, with net cash flow from operating activities reaching 780 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 116.3% [5] - From 2020 to 2024, Zhenjiu Lidu's revenue surged from 2.399 billion yuan to 7.07 billion yuan, and adjusted net profit increased from 520 million yuan to 1.68 billion yuan, marking a threefold growth over five years [7] Competitive Positioning - Zhenjiu Lidu's gross margin of 75.5% (according to A-share accounting standards) ranks seventh among listed liquor companies, while its net profit margin of 23.7% exceeds the industry average of 17.04% by 6.66 percentage points [7] - The company has established a unique market strategy that combines differentiated strategic layout and innovative practices, building core competitiveness that can withstand industry cycles [10] Strategic Initiatives - Zhenjiu Lidu is expanding production capacity in key regions such as Guizhou, Hunan, and Jiangxi, and plans to launch a new product priced between 500 to 600 yuan, targeting the 2000 yuan market segment [12] - The company is implementing a dual-channel growth strategy in five core markets, focusing on new consumer demographics driven by technology and digitalization [12] - Zhenjiu Lidu aims to enhance its brand image through cultural storytelling and immersive marketing experiences, leveraging its historical brand heritage [12][13]
珍酒李渡(06979):转变思路积极应对,厚积薄发砥砺前行
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-19 02:20
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is actively responding to industry adjustments by transforming its strategies, focusing on nurturing enterprise customer structures and launching new products in the mid-to-high price range to create incremental growth [8] - The company aims to maintain price stability for existing products while introducing high-quality new products priced between 500-600 RMB to attract consumers [8] - The company is implementing a dual-driven strategy for national expansion and price range diversification, with a focus on experiential marketing to drive steady revenue growth [8] - The financial forecasts for the company indicate a stable performance in 2025, with slight adjustments to the non-IFRS net profit predictions for 2025-2027 [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 7,060 million RMB, with a growth rate of 20.56%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 8,929 million RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 14.54% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 2,327 million RMB, with a significant increase of 125.96%. By 2027, it is projected to be 2,106 million RMB, with a growth rate of 22.98% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is 0.69 RMB, expected to rise to 0.62 RMB by 2027 [1] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 15.88 in 2024 to 9.98 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [1]
观酒周报|新规要求党政机关公务接待不得供烟酒;茅台本轮回购已完成2/3;富邑集团换帅
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-05-19 00:51
Group 1: Industry Insights - The liquor industry is facing challenges, with companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Zhangyu expressing concerns about market conditions and sales performance [1][15] - Qingdao Beer is considering the integration of quality assets to enhance its market position, indicating a strategic approach to growth [13] - The recent regulations on public reception by government agencies may impact the consumption of alcoholic beverages in official settings [2] Group 2: Company Developments - Kweichow Moutai has completed 62.46 million shares repurchase, amounting to 10.11 billion yuan, which is two-thirds of its planned buyback [3] - Yanjing Beer is expanding into the non-alcoholic beverage market, launching a new soda brand to meet consumer demand and leverage synergies with its beer business [10][11] - Zhangyu's management remains cautiously optimistic about the long-term prospects of the domestic wine market despite current challenges [15][16] Group 3: Management Changes - Tim Ford is stepping down as CEO of Treasury Wine Estates, with Sam Fischer set to take over, bringing experience from both fast-moving consumer goods and the beverage industry [8] - Chen Qi, Vice Chairman of Shanghai Guijiu, has resigned due to personal reasons, continuing to serve as a board member [9]
食品饮料策略会反馈及板块观点更新
2025-05-18 15:48
食品饮料策略会反馈及板块观点更新 20250518 摘要 • 茅台价格小幅回升,飞天茅台批价预计在 2,100-2,200 元波动,普飞发货 节奏加快,非标产品增多,总库存略升。高端白酒五粮液批价在 920-925 元以上,但成交量少,渠道库存低。 • 汾酒对实现增长充满信心,重点关注腰部产品,青花 26 和青花 30 系列增 速快。2025 年营销和利润预期乐观,预计均实现大个位数增长。清香型 白酒市场供需紧张,青花 20 货源紧俏。 • 政策对政务消费监管严格,商务需求下滑接近双位数,对传统产业和出口 订单扰动大。经销商预期端午订单平稳,关注五月下旬及 618 前后价格波 动。 • 白酒行业整体呈现周期性调整迹象,规上企业数量减少,销售额微增,利 润下降。主动权益基金对白酒板块超低配,建议关注高端白酒和渠道优势 品种。 • 蜜雪冰城及其竞争品牌门店数量持续加密,加盟商投资回报期约为两年, 加盟意愿强烈。零食量贩行业仍处于扩展阶段,单店盈利模型稳定。 Q&A 近期茅台产品价格小幅回弹,如飞天茅台价格约为 2,180 元左右,经销商拆箱 销售报价与原先差不多。散瓶精品茅台造假严重,多数经销商暂停售卖散瓶精 品 ...
白酒龙头又要在婚宴赛道“拼刺刀”了
阿尔法工场研究院· 2025-05-18 11:43
以下文章来源于懂酒谛 ,作者懂酒哥 懂酒谛 . 懂酒谛新媒体以财经视角解读酒业新动态新趋势,传播中华酒文化,丰富国人品质生活。 作者 | 懂酒谛 来源 | 懂酒谛 导语 : 抢占宴席市场,能否让茅台1935重回巅峰? 茅台1935作为曾经的传奇,创下了难以复制的战绩。然而,登高摔重,如今的茅台1935价格倒挂严重,早已脱 离千元价格带。5月16日,"今日酒价"公众号名酒批发价信息显示,茅台1935的价格约为750元,相比年初有所 回升,但距离1000元的基准线仍有较大差距。 | 茅台酱香 MOUTA | | | 2025年5月16日 (公众号: 今日酒价) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品名 | 规格 | 昨日行情 | 今日行情 | | 2 茅台1935 | 53度/500ml | 750 | 750 | | 2 汉酱(铂金蓝) | 51度/500ml | 202 | 505 | | 汉酱(匠心传承) | 53度/500ml | 340 | 340 | | 2 汉酱(音) | 51度/500ml | 320 | 320 | | 汉酱(135bc) | 51度/500ml | ર ...
不卷了!茅台、五粮液大动作!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-18 06:50
据"贵州茅台"微信公众号消息,5月16日,茅台集团党委副书记、总经理王莉一行到访五粮液,与五粮 液集团(股份)公司党委书记、董事长曾从钦,五粮液股份公司党委副书记、副董事长、总经理华涛进 行深入的座谈交流。在座谈会上,双方一致认为,应对当前白酒行业的周期性调整,离不开攻坚克难的 精神,更需要团结一心的合力。 曾从钦还表示,共育行业创新前进动能,聚焦白酒年轻化、国际化等破局突围之路,在年轻消费者培 育、国际市场拓展等方面加强互鉴和协作,为行业增量改革注入新的强劲动能。共创行业转型升级范 式,在新工具、新技术的应用场景、应用路径上加强沟通合作,积极探索市场端数字营销、体验经济的 新业态、新模式,不断探索白酒"经典产业"的无限可能。共护行业绿色发展环境,在生态化产区、生态 化园区建设方面,共同探索和推动白酒产业构建完整的"零碳"发展理念和"零碳"发展模式,呵护好中国 白酒不可复制的酿造基因和生态密码。共塑行业竞合发展生态,坚决扛起行业龙头企业责任,始终秉持 竞合发展思维,精诚团结、携手共进,引领行业加强自律,不内卷、不内战、不内耗,坚定当好市场秩 序的守护者、行业生态的建设者。 近期,贵州茅台与五粮液在业绩会上回应 ...