Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are currently in a range-bound fluctuation as the market awaits the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report next Tuesday [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent non-farm payroll data has suppressed further increases in gold prices, as the market has re-priced hawkish expectations regarding interest rates, putting pressure on the precious metal [1] - A weak CPI report could provide a boost to gold prices, while a strong performance may trigger a new wave of selling [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Perspective - From a broader perspective, gold is expected to maintain an upward trend due to the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's easing policies, which may lead to a continued decline in real yields [1] - However, short-term hawkish re-pricing of rate cut expectations could lead to a pullback in gold prices [1]

前中国央行货币政策委员会委员黄益平、前中国央行货币政策司副司长郭凯等人在周五的报告中呼吁，政府应在12个月内推出额外1至1.5万亿人民币的刺激经济措施，以提振居民消费，减轻美国关税对经济造成的损害。国家需要采取更有力的逆周期政策来保持稳定增长，同时大力推进结构性改革。报告指出，长远而言，政府需要扩大个人所得税税基，并简化增值税结构，管理与中小企业贷款相关的风险，以释放银行向生产效率更高行业放贷的能力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk's proposal to establish a new political party in the U.S. aims to liberate citizens from the existing two-party system, which he claims is leading the country to bankruptcy due to waste and corruption [1][4]. Group 1: Political Context - The U.S. election system is characterized by an indirect election process where the president is elected by an electoral college rather than by direct popular vote [1][2]. - The electoral votes are allocated based on the population of each state, with a total of 538 electoral votes, including 3 from Washington D.C. [1]. - The "winner-takes-all" principle in U.S. elections means that the candidate with the majority of votes in a state receives all of that state's electoral votes, contrasting with proportional representation systems in some European countries [2]. Group 2: Historical Stability of Two-Party System - The two-party system has been stable for nearly 200 years, with the Democratic and Republican parties dominating due to their substantial campaign resources and experience [3]. - California, a Democratic stronghold, has the highest number of electoral votes at approximately 54, while Texas, a Republican stronghold, has about 40 electoral votes [3]. Group 3: Challenges for Third Parties - Third parties in the U.S., such as the Green Party and the Libertarian Party, often participate in elections to raise awareness rather than to win, with many candidates withdrawing early to increase their visibility [4]. - The political landscape is complicated by the two parties' ability to adapt their policies to attract voters, making it uncertain whether Musk's new party can effectively challenge the status quo [4]. Group 4: Impact on Tesla - Following Musk's announcement about forming a new party, Tesla's stock price dropped nearly 7%, resulting in a market value loss of approximately $68 billion [5]. - Analysts express concern that Musk's political activities could negatively impact Tesla's stock, with some suggesting that he should distance himself from politics to protect the company's interests [5]. - Recent legislative changes reducing tax incentives for electric vehicles may further affect Tesla's sales and the broader electric vehicle market [5]. Group 5: Internal Challenges - Musk's high compensation package, which could yield up to $56 billion in stock options if performance targets are met, has drawn criticism regarding the board's oversight [6]. - Analysts recommend implementing restrictions on Musk's political activities and setting boundaries for his tenure at Tesla to mitigate potential conflicts of interest [6]. - Musk's dissatisfaction with the two-party system raises questions about the feasibility and sincerity of his intentions to establish a new political party [6].

澳洲联邦银行（CBA）指出，这是9个月来的最高水平。 近几个月来，澳元汇率大致在一个相对狭窄的区间内波动，徘徊在64-65美分左 右。但隔夜澳元汇率走 高，接近66美分。 市场对9月降息25个基点的预期已大幅降温，从7月2日的116%降至目前的72%。 尽管短期内澳元兑美元的阻力最小路径是上行，但未来几周有几项关键事件可能导 致其大幅下跌，例 如6月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）数据，以及8月1日和8月12日 美国"贸易休战"的到期。 未来几天有一些因素可能推高美元，进而导致澳元兑美元走低。例如，下周公布的 美国CPI可能会显示 关税对商品通胀的影响更大，这将推迟市场对9月联邦基金利率 降息的预期。 据路透社最新消息，美国总统特朗普宣布从8月1日起对从加拿大进口的商品征收 35%的关税。 在触及2024年11月以来的高点后，受此消息影响，澳元汇率开始回 落，下跌0.3%，美元上涨。 澳元兑美元汇率已收复周一 的全部失地，目前交易价格接近0.66，为2024年11月以来的最高水平。 （图片来源：ABC） 澳元兑美元得到了风险偏好改善的支撑，例如股市上涨以及美国国债拍卖表现稳 健。澳元对所有主要 交叉汇率也均走高。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The proposal by President Trump to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper products, including semi-finished copper goods, is expected to significantly impact various economic sectors and the U.S. copper supply chain [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Proposal Details - The proposed tariff will cover copper products used in power grids, military equipment, and data centers, with semi-finished products likely included [1]. - The details of the tariff plan are not fully disclosed, and adjustments to the measures are still possible [1]. - The market had anticipated tariffs on refined copper, but the inclusion of semi-finished products (such as wire, sheet, and pipe) was uncertain until now [1]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The tariff is expected to raise production costs across multiple sectors, including electronics, automotive manufacturing, construction, and defense [1]. - In 2022, the U.S. imported 908,000 tons of refined copper, which constituted the largest import category, and these materials are processed into rods, cables, and alloy products [1]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The U.S. Copper Development Association highlighted that semi-finished copper products are critical to the military supply chain, representing 90% of U.S. semi-finished copper producers [2]. - The U.S. domestic copper production is insufficient to meet its own demand, necessitating significant imports of semi-finished copper products, estimated at 800,000 tons last year [2]. - The potential for a 50% tariff on semi-finished products raises national security concerns, as any disruption in foreign copper supply could severely impact U.S. electricity supply [2]. Group 4: Processing Sector Challenges - Imposing tariffs on semi-finished products will directly increase costs for processing companies, which rely heavily on imported raw materials [3]. - Current domestic processing capacity cannot meet the additional demand for 800,000 tons of semi-finished products, and establishing new capacity may take up to seven years [3].

Core Viewpoint - Steve Eisman, known for his success during the 2008 financial crisis, expresses fatigue over discussions regarding U.S. debt, suggesting that the budget deficit may not be a significant issue and that the market has not lost confidence in U.S. fiscal health [2][3] Group 1: U.S. Debt and Market Sentiment - Eisman believes that the current noise around U.S. debt is driven by those trying to replicate his past success in shorting the housing market [2] - He emphasizes that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has been directionless since 2022, indicating stable market confidence in U.S. fiscal conditions [2] - Eisman argues that U.S. Treasury bonds have no substitutes, which diminishes the relevance of discussions surrounding the budget deficit [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment Outlook - Despite his past reputation for bearish bets, Eisman has adopted a more optimistic outlook in recent years, reducing risk in his investment portfolio while remaining bullish on the market due to factors like artificial intelligence [3] - The demand for U.S. Treasuries remains strong, as evidenced by recent successful auctions, suggesting continued investor interest in these securities as safe-haven assets [2]

Group 1 - Elon Musk announced the formation of a new political party called the "American Party" to liberate citizens from the two-party system in the U.S. [1] - A poll conducted by Musk showed that 65.4% of over 1.24 million participants supported the establishment of the "American Party" [1] - The U.S. electoral system operates on an indirect election basis, where the president is elected by an electoral college rather than by direct popular vote [1][2] Group 2 - The "winner-takes-all" principle in U.S. elections means that the candidate with the most votes in a state receives all of that state's electoral votes [2] - Historically, the two-party system has been stable in the U.S., with the Democratic and Republican parties dominating due to their established voter bases and resources [3] - Third parties have existed in the U.S., but they often struggle to gain significant traction, with many candidates participating primarily to raise their profile rather than to win [3] Group 3 - Musk's political activities have negatively impacted Tesla's stock price, which fell nearly 7% following his announcement about the new party, resulting in a market cap loss of approximately $68 billion [4] - Analysts have downgraded Tesla's stock rating from "buy" to "hold" due to concerns over Musk's political involvement and its potential adverse effects on the company [5] - Musk's high compensation package has drawn criticism, and there are calls for more oversight regarding his political activities and their impact on Tesla [5]

Group 1: Tariff Policy Overview - The U.S. will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, starting August 1 [2] - The tariffs are framed as a means to protect American workers and industries, particularly targeting traditional sectors like steel and automotive [3][4] - The policy aims to reduce trade deficits, protect domestic manufacturing, and increase government revenue, with an estimated annual revenue increase of nearly $400 billion from a 10% base tariff [4] Group 2: Economic and Strategic Implications - The tariffs are seen as a tool to reshape the U.S. supply chain, encouraging domestic production and reducing reliance on foreign imports [4][5] - The strategic goal includes countering China's development and reshaping global trade rules, with a focus on technology and supply chain decoupling [5] - The tariffs have led to significant market volatility, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average experiencing sharp declines due to trade war news [6] Group 3: Market Reactions and Effects - The tariffs have resulted in increased costs for U.S. companies, with General Motors reporting over $1 billion in increased costs due to steel tariffs [6][8] - Retail giants like Walmart have warned of price increases of 12% to 15% on certain goods due to tariffs, affecting consumer prices [6] - The steel market has seen prices rise over 30%, but this has led to increased costs for downstream industries, potentially suppressing demand [8] Group 4: Broader Economic Impact - The tariffs have caused a significant shift in global commodity flows, with U.S. soybean prices plummeting due to retaliatory tariffs from China [8] - Energy markets are also affected, with concerns over global economic growth leading to suppressed demand and increased logistics costs [8] - The overall impact of the tariffs has been described as a "negative-sum game," with significant losses for both U.S. consumers and global markets [10]

Core Viewpoint - The market remains skeptical about the implementation of the 50% tariffs in the U.S., as indicated by the persistent high price differential between COMEX and LME copper, which stands at 27% [1] Group 1 - The price differential between COMEX copper and LME copper is currently at a high level of 27% [1] - Analysts suggest that strong support levels for London copper and Shanghai copper are located at specific price points, which are not detailed in the provided content [1]

据新华财经消息，7月10日凌晨，美联储公布了6月份货币政策会议纪要(以下简称"纪要")。纪要显示， 美联储官员对利率前景的分歧主要来源于对美国关税政策影响通胀的预期不同。 广开首席产业研究院副院长刘涛对《证券日报》记者表示，2024年9月份至12月份，美联储曾连续3次降 息，累计降幅达100个基点。然而，自今年初以来，美联储在长达半年的时间内一直"按兵不动"，这折 射出美联储在降息问题上正面临"两难"处境。一方面，为前瞻性地预防美国经济出现衰退，联邦基金利 率有必要向中性利率水平靠拢；另一方面，面对美国关税等贸易保护措施，美联储又不得不高度警惕通 胀反弹的风险。 明明表示，决定未来美联储是否会转向"鸽派"更为关键的因素仍是美国经济数据变动，当美国经济明显 收缩、通胀问题可控时，存在美联储从"鹰派"向"鸽派"转向、美联储"鸽派"底色更深的可能性。 他进一步分析，当前虽然美国部分就业数据显示其就业市场存在一定走弱迹象，但整体就业市场仍存在 韧性。美国就业数据给予了美联储观察经济状况的窗口，7月份美联储降息概率较低。 "根据近期美联储官员的表态，当前美联储12名票委的货币政策立场分歧较大。"中信证券首席经济学家 明 ...