有色金属日报 2025-4-14 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 上周铜价大幅下探后回升，伦铜周涨 5.68%至 9184 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 75710 元/吨。产业 层面，上周三大交易所库存环比减少 3.4 万吨，其中上期所库存减少 4.3 至 18.3 万吨，LME 库存减 少 0.2 至 20.9 万吨，COMEX 库存增加 1.1 至 10.6 万吨。上海保税区库存增加 0.1 万吨。当周铜现 货进口盈亏冲高回落，洋 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices rebounded after hitting a low, currently trading around $3042, recovering all losses from the previous night [1] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.283%, reaching a high of 4.296%, increasing the holding cost of non-yielding assets like gold [1] - Concerns over weak demand for U.S. Treasury auctions and the Federal Reserve's policy outlook are dominating short-term market sentiment [1] Trade Policy - U.S. Trade Representative Tai indicated that there will be no easing of tariff policies in the short term, emphasizing the necessity of short-term pain for long-term competitiveness [3] - Tariffs on 57 trading partners have come into effect, reinforcing U.S. trade barriers and contributing to ongoing global trade tensions [3] - The U.S. is engaged in negotiations with over 50 countries, but a hardline stance is maintained, requiring substantial reductions in tariffs from trading partners for any consideration of tariff relief [3] Market Sentiment - The S&P 500 index fell below 5000, with a cumulative drop of over 12% in four days, resulting in a market capitalization loss of $5.8 trillion [4] - The volatility index (VIX) surged to its highest level since March 2020, indicating widespread market panic [4] - Market expectations suggest a 105 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by year-end, with over 50% probability for a cut in May [4] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown a recovery from recent lows, with potential for significant fluctuations within the range above $2950 [6] - Short-term price movements indicate a challenge around the $3050 level, with key support at $3013 [6] Trading Strategy - Aggressive buying is suggested around $3013, with a stop loss at $2999 and a target of $3053/3076 [7] - For short positions, entry is recommended near $3053, with a stop loss at $3060 and a target of $3033/3013 [7]

美国政府经贸政策动摇美元体系。 冷战结束后的前二十多年，全球化不断推进，美元在全球贸易、投融资的中心货币地位持续提升。但自2016年起，美 国奉行"脱钩断链"、"小院高墙"。美国对中、俄等贸易大国的贸易保护、制裁等措施，使得美元的使用范围正在收缩。而美国频繁动用金融制裁也使得市 场对于持有美元的担忧有所上升。在这种情况下，为保持美元的吸引力，美国需要维持高利率以及强势的货币币值。 但美国如果延续高利率政策又将动摇美债体系。 美国在对外采取贸易保护的同时，对内已转向"大政府"思路，这使得美国政府债务率被推至历史高位。而且从 近期美国的战略规划来看，未来美国仍将维持高强度财政投入。在此背景下，如果高利率持续，将意味着债务的利息负担急剧扩张，进而导致债务率本身加速 上升，引发市场对于美债可持续性的担忧。 "稳美元"还是"稳美债"，联储货币政策框架或已发生系统性改变。 从上述分析可以看出，联储除了其传统的关注点——就业与通胀——之外，还不得不同时关 注维持美元吸引力以及维系美债可持续性的问题。但这两个目标对联储的诉求是矛盾的，"稳美元"需要相对高利率来维持对资金的吸引力，而"稳美债"则需要利 率不能过高。联储面临"双 ...