证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 03 日 社融有望同比多增 ——2025 年 6 月金融数据预测 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 核心预判：依据过往信贷投放规律及行业观察等，我们预测 2025 年 6 月新增贷款 2.1 万 亿元，社融 3.8 万亿元。6 月末，M2 达 329.2 万亿，YoY+7.9%；M1（新口径）YoY +2.5%； 社融增速 8.8%。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 6 月新增贷款或同比接近。二季度，4 月及 5 月往往是信贷投放小月，6 月为投放大 月。尽管信贷需求持续偏弱，但银行在 6 月往往会冲刺信贷规模，以做大半年末贷 款余额。我们预计 6 月新增贷款 2.1 万亿，同比接近；个贷增量 5000 亿，对公信贷 增量 1.55 万亿，非银同业贷款+500 亿。定期存款利率下调可能提升按揭早偿压力， 但一二线城市成交较活跃，按揭贷款有望正增长。我们预计 6 月个贷短期+1500 亿， 个贷中长期+3500 亿。我们预 ...

国内市场综述 窄幅整理 缩量回调 新闻精要 1. 习近平主席特使、财政部部长蓝佛安出席联合国第 四次发展筹资国际会议 2. 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩会见王毅 6. 全球重要经济数据发布 风险提示 1.稳增长力度不及预期； 2.地缘冲突升级。 周三（7 月 2 日）大盘窄幅整理，缩量回调。截至收 盘，上证综指收于 3454.79 点，下跌 0.09%；深成指 收于 10412.63 点，下跌 0.61%；科创 50 下跌 1.22%； 创业板指下跌 1.13%，万得全 A 成交额共 14051 亿元， 较前一日有所下降。 行业方面，30 个中一级行业有 13 个行业上涨，其中 钢铁、煤炭及建材涨幅居前，而综合金融、国防军工 及电子则跌幅较大。概念方面，水产、光伏屋顶及深 海科技等指数表现活跃。 海外市场综述 美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，特斯拉涨近 5% 周三（7 月 2 日），美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指 跌 0.02%，标普 500 指数涨 0.47%，再创历史新高，纳 指涨 0.94%。万得美国科技七巨头指数涨 1.23%，特斯 拉涨近 5%，英伟达涨超 2%。中概股涨跌不一，大全新 能源涨超 15%，脑再生 ...

Group 1 - The event "How State-owned Assets Innovate Park Operations - Pain Points and Solutions" was held, focusing on the challenges faced by cultural industry parks [1][2] - Over 20 representatives from park operators, asset holders, and industry think tanks participated, discussing three core pain points: institutional constraints, market capability building, and resource integration efficiency [2] - The discussion highlighted the need for collaboration within the industry to address challenges such as insufficient policy adaptability and increasing pressure on traditional profit models [6] Group 2 - The Vice President of Beijing Cultural Industry Park Association, Zhen Jun, emphasized the industry's shift towards "service transformation and capital innovation," calling for solutions in policy adaptation, talent cultivation, and funding channels [4] - The current rental market is under pressure, with rental prices generally below cost, creating a conflict between rigid land acquisition costs and flexible rental market conditions [6] - The event also featured insights on cross-regional development strategies, advocating for innovative cooperation models with state-owned capital to balance long-term investment returns and regulatory requirements [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Water Affairs (00855.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the core operational profit is steadily growing, with a cash flow turning point already evident. The decline in FY2025 performance is primarily due to one-time impairment impacts, while the core operational business remains robust [1][7] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2025, the total revenue is projected at HKD 12,200 million, a decrease of 5.12% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be HKD 1,075 million, down 29.92% year-on-year [1][7] - The main business revenue is HKD 11,656 million, reflecting a 9.4% decline year-on-year, mainly due to reduced income from water supply and direct drinking water installation, maintenance, and construction services [1][7] - The report details segment performance: - Urban water supply revenue is HKD 7,498 million, down 9.4% year-on-year, with segment profit slightly up by 0.1% [1] - Direct drinking water revenue is HKD 657 million, down 61.9%, with segment profit down 58.9% [1] - Environmental segment revenue is HKD 1,523 million, up 42.2%, with segment profit increasing by 56.9% [1] - Total construction revenue is HKD 664 million, down 19.7%, with segment profit down 9.3% [1] - Property revenue is HKD 361 million, with segment profit up 16.5% [1] Future Projections - The report forecasts a net profit of HKD 1,372 million for FY2026, HKD 1,387 million for FY2027, and HKD 1,415 million for FY2028, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.2, 7.1, and 6.9 times [1][7] - Capital expenditures are expected to decrease from HKD 53.3 billion in FY2024 to HKD 34 billion in FY2025, with a target of under HKD 20 billion for FY2026 [1][7] - The dividend per share for FY2025 is projected to remain stable at HKD 0.28, with a payout ratio of 42.5% and a dividend yield of 4.65% [1][7]

日本央行审议委员高田创：日本央行短期经济观察调查显示资本支出呈温和上升趋势，未出现明显变 化。 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-07-03 科技股调整，红利回升 市场分析 美国就业数据爆冷。国内方面，证监会党委召开扩大会议强调，要持续优化股债融资、并购重组等资本市场机制 安排，促进要素向最有潜力的领域高效集聚。牢记我国资本市场中小投资者众多的最大市情，不断完善投资者保 护制度体系。深入推进以"两创板"改革为抓手的新一轮全面深化资本市场改革。全力抓好资本市场自主开放重点 举措落地。始终把维护市场稳定作为监管工作首要任务，推动健全常态化稳市机制安排，平稳有序防控债券违约、 私募基金等领域风险。海外方面，美国6月ADP就业人数意外减少3.3万人，自2023年3月以来首次负增长，预期为 增长9.8万人，5月份数据在向下修正后仅增加2.9万人。服务业就业在6月份减少6.6万个就业岗位，遭遇自疫情以来 的最大降幅。 指数调整。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡收跌，科技股全线回调，上证指数跌0.09%收于3454.79点，创业板指跌1.13%。 行业方面，板块指数涨跌互现，钢铁、煤炭、建筑材料行业涨幅居前，电子、通信、国防军工、计算机行业跌幅 居前。当日沪深两市成交金额回落至1.4万亿元。今年6月A股新开户165万户，环比增长 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gree Group has appointed a new chairman, Zou Hui, a post-80s generation leader, indicating a shift towards younger management to facilitate the company's transformation from a traditional industrial manager to a state-owned capital investment operation platform [2][3]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Zou Hui, born in 1982, has taken over as chairman from Kang Hong, who served for just over a year [3]. - The trend of appointing younger leaders reflects Gree Group's strategy to enhance operational efficiency and align with capital operation and information industry optimization [3]. Group 2: Strategic Transformation - Since 2016, Gree Group has been undergoing a strategic transformation, resulting in a significant asset restructuring and the formation of a substantial industrial investment cluster [2][6]. - The company has established a comprehensive development framework, evolving from a focus on core manufacturing to a diversified investment operation model [6][7]. Group 3: Investment Activities - Gree Group has invested in over 900 projects, with a total investment exceeding 766 billion yuan, contributing approximately 1,023 billion yuan in output value and 56 billion yuan in tax revenue from projects in Zhuhai [7]. - The company has focused on strategic sectors such as semiconductors, new energy, and healthcare, aligning with Zhuhai's industrial upgrade needs [7].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs (GS.US) has significantly reduced its projected losses during the Federal Reserve's stress tests, estimating only $300 million in losses compared to $18 billion a year ago, allowing for substantial shareholder dividends [1] Group 1: Stress Test Results - The Federal Reserve's stress test scenario assumes a 7.8% economic decline, a 10% unemployment rate, a 33% drop in housing prices, and a 30% decrease in commercial real estate prices [1] - Goldman Sachs announced a 33% increase in its quarterly dividend to $4 per share due to the reduced loss projections [1] - The minimum capital requirement ratio for Goldman Sachs decreased from 13.6% to 10.9%, marking the lowest level since the current testing mechanism was implemented in 2020 [1] Group 2: Changes in Testing Methodology - A key adjustment in this year's stress test was the exclusion of private equity investments, an area where Goldman Sachs has higher direct risk exposure compared to peers [4] - The Federal Reserve's model adjustments reflect greater consideration of market hedging impacts, which have improved simulated trading loss results for certain banks [4] - Analysts noted that atypical client behavior ahead of the 2024 U.S. elections contributed to improved trading loss simulations, which likely benefited Goldman Sachs [4] Group 3: Comparison with Peers - Goldman Sachs' simulated trading losses are significantly lower than those of peers, with Morgan Stanley at $7 billion and JPMorgan at $10.2 billion [5] - There has been ongoing dissatisfaction among U.S. banks regarding the opacity of the Federal Reserve's capital requirement models, which they argue have historically been unfavorable [5] - Analysts suggest that Goldman Sachs may have utilized more hedging derivative strategies to navigate extreme market conditions, although transparency remains an issue [5] Group 4: Regulatory Context - The stress tests were introduced as part of regulatory measures following the 2008 financial crisis to determine the minimum capital levels banks must hold against potential losses [7] - Lower capital requirements enhance operational flexibility for banks, with estimates indicating that a 10 basis point reduction in capital requirements could free up nearly $700 million for Goldman Sachs to expand operations or return to shareholders [7] - Goldman Sachs' CEO, David Solomon, emphasized the company's efforts to reduce capital intensity and focus on managing funds for external clients [7]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-07-03 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250630 | 2025/06 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.70 | 49.50 | 49.50 | | 20250630 | 2025/06 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.50 | 50.30 | 50.50 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 22870.00 11599.00 | 20623.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 12.10 | 12.00 | 11.70 | | 202506 ...

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/7/3 08:00 | 2025/7/2 15:00 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 44484.42 | 44494.94 | -10.520 | -0.024 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 20393.13 | 20202.89 | 190.240 | 0.942 | | 标普500 | | 6227.42 | 6198.01 | 29.410 | 0.475 | | 恒生指数 | | 24221.41 | 24072.28 | 149.130 | 0.620 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.37 | 1.37 | -0.002 | -0.146 | | 美元指数 | | 96.75 | 96.78 | -0.032 | -0.033 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.17 | 7.17 | 0 | 0 | | 主力合约 | | 2025/7/2 | 2025/7/1 | 涨 ...