1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, copper prices fluctuated within a range. The resumption of Trump's tariff ban and Powell's expression of the Fed's independent monetary - policy - making stance after the first meeting with Trump dampened the expectation of easing this year. The rebound of the US dollar index limited the upward movement of copper prices. Meanwhile, the shutdown of the underground operation in the Kakula section of the Kamoa copper mine and the record - low mid - year long - term TC quote of Antofagasta to CSPT provided strong support for copper prices from the supply side [2][8]. - Globally, the trade pattern still faces significant uncertainty risks. There are differences between the Fed and Trump in monetary - policy stances. Attention should be paid to the evolution of trade policies, their impact on the global supply chain, and the risk of stagflation in the US economy. Fundamentally, overseas mine - end disturbances are frequent, domestic refined copper remains in a tight balance, and social inventories are oscillating at a low level, providing solid support for copper prices. In the short term, copper prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of the previous LME copper price at $9,600 per ton [3][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price Changes**: From May 23rd to May 30th, LME copper decreased from $9,614/ton to $9,497/ton, a decline of $117 or 1.22%; COMEX copper dropped from 486.5 cents/pound to 470.2 cents/pound, a decrease of 16.3 cents or 3.35%; SHFE copper fell from 78,270 yuan/ton to 77,600 yuan/ton, a decline of 670 yuan or 0.86%; International copper rose from 68,700 yuan/ton to 68,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan or 0.26%. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.14 to 8.17, the LME spot premium increased from $31.14/ton to $50.08/ton, a rise of 60.82%, and the Shanghai spot premium increased from 165 yuan/ton to 170 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of May 30th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area decreased to 487,852 tons, a decline of 6.04% compared to May 23rd. Among them, LME inventory decreased by 30,925 tons to 148,450 tons, a decline of 17.24%; COMEX inventory increased by 10,965 short tons to 180,629 short tons, a rise of 6.46%; SHFE inventory increased by 7,120 tons to 105,773 tons, a rise of 7.22%; Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 18,500 tons to 53,000 tons, a decline of 25.87% [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Fluctuation Reasons**: The resumption of Trump's tariff ban and Powell's stance on independent monetary - policy - making restricted the upward movement of copper prices. The shutdown of the underground operation in the Kakula section of the Kamoa copper mine and the record - low TC quote provided support from the supply side. Overseas mine - end disturbances intensified, COMEX inventory exceeded LME inventory after three years, the Yangshan copper warrant premium was high, social inventories were at a low level, and the near - month B structure of the futures market widened slightly [2][8]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of May 30th, the total global inventory continued to decline. LME copper inventory decreased significantly, the LME 0 - 3B structure widened, and the proportion of cancelled warrants continued to rise to 51.5%. SHFE inventory rebounded slightly from a low level, Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased, the Yangshan copper bill of lading premium remained above $90, and COMEX inventory exceeded LME inventory for the first time in three years. The rise of the Shanghai - London ratio was mainly due to the rebound of the US dollar index [8]. - **Macro - situation**: The Fed's latest meeting minutes showed that the US economy continued to expand steadily, unemployment was low, inflation was generally controllable but rising, and trade policies had a large impact on the economic outlook. Powell expressed the Fed's independent stance, while Trump thought Powell's non - interest - rate - cut decision was wrong. The EU should be vigilant against potential economic downturn risks. In China, industrial enterprise profits from January to April increased by 1.4% year - on - year, showing a positive trend [9]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The spot TC remained below - $40/ton, and Antofagasta's mid - year long - term TC quote to CSPT was a record - low - $15/ton, increasing concerns about raw - material supply shortages. Domestic refined copper was in a tight balance. On the demand side, power - grid investment projects were being tendered, copper - cable enterprises' weekly operating rate was about 80%, and orders for refined - copper rod enterprises were abundant. Although there was an expected significant decline in photovoltaic installation in May, emerging markets such as data centers, artificial intelligence, and new - energy vehicles brought strong growth expectations. Domestic social inventories remained around 140,000 tons, and the near - month B structure rebounded slightly [10]. 3.3 Industry News - **Supply - demand Forecast**: In March 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus of 17,000 tons, narrowing from 180,000 tons in February. Overseas investment banks predicted a possible shortage in the global refined copper market in the second half of the year, and the risk of a "copper shortage" was increasing. Chile raised the global average copper price forecast for 2025 to $4.3 per pound [11]. - **Mine - end Incidents**: The underground operation of the Kakula mine in the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine was suspended due to increased water inflow. The mine was formulating a drainage plan, and the surface infrastructure was not affected. The Freeport Indonesia copper smelter in East Java resumed operation ahead of schedule and was expected to start producing cathode copper in the fourth week of June and reach full - capacity production in December [12][13]. - **Processing - fee and Market Transaction**: The processing fee for 8mm T1 cable rods in East China last week was in the range of 450 - 650 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 30 - 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The trading activity in the East China refined - copper rod market increased, while in South China, trading was mostly postponed to after the holiday. It was expected that the operating rate of domestic refined - copper rod enterprises would remain high in early June [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, inventory changes in LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area, copper premium trends, copper import profit - loss trends, copper concentrate spot TC, and the net - long - position ratio of non - commercial traders in COMEX copper and the net - position changes of investment funds in LME copper, etc [15][22][36].

多资产配置研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：牛播坤 【资产配置快评】 Riders on the Charts: 每周大类资产配置图 表精粹 ❖ 投资摘要： Poetry and art and knowledge are sacred and pure. —Mary Ann Evans "George Eliot" 原油市场爆发价格战，新兴市场出现系统性金融风险 电话：010-66500825 邮箱：niubokun@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360514030002 证券分析师：郭忠良 电话：010-66500830 邮箱：guozhongliang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090002 相关研究报告 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 24 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-05-27 《关税战后的全球资产余波——总量"创"辩第 103 期》 2025-05-26 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 23 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-05-19 《资产配 ...

Group 1 - Dazhu CNC has submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, positioning itself as a leading provider of PCB production equipment solutions [1] - According to the prospectus, Dazhu CNC is the largest manufacturer of PCB-specific production equipment globally, with a market share of 6.5% based on projected 2024 revenue [1] - Financial data indicates that Dazhu CNC's revenues for 2022, 2023, and 2024 are projected to be 2.786 billion, 1.634 billion, and 3.343 billion respectively, with net profits of 432 million, 148 million, and 452 million [1] Group 2 - Tongguan Copper Foil has successfully exported its electronic circuit copper foil products to Malaysia, expanding its international market presence [2] - The company has achieved a significant milestone with its HVLP series copper foil sales surpassing 1,000 tons, indicating strong market competitiveness [4] - In the first four months of 2025, sales of the HVLP series have already exceeded the total sales for the entire year of 2024, demonstrating continuous growth [4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 近期利多利空分析 利多： 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，5月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，比上月 上升0.5个百分点，制造业继续保持恢复发展态势；中性。 2、基差：现货78245，基差645，升水期货；中性。 3、库存：6月2日铜库存减1425至148400吨，上期所铜库存较上周减7120吨至105791吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向上运行；中性。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性增强，铜价震荡运行为主. 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,巴以地缘政治扰动。 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 Copper Business Conference was held in Chongqing, focusing on promoting investment and talent attraction to boost the local economy [1][3] - The conference showcased the economic and social development of the Tongliang District, presenting a development opportunity list for 2025 with 74 quality projects and a total investment scale of 75.2 billion yuan [3] - A total of 23 projects were signed at the conference, covering various industries with a planned total investment of 10.915 billion yuan [4] Group 2 - The conference also announced the commencement of 14 projects and the completion of 10 projects, with a total investment of 5.1 billion yuan, significantly contributing to the local industrial chain [4] - Tongliang District appointed 25 investment consultants and recognized outstanding individuals and collectives for their contributions to the high-quality development of the private economy [8] - The district aims to achieve a GDP and industrial output value exceeding 100 billion yuan by 2030, focusing on creating a first-class business environment [11][12] Group 3 - The district has established a modern industrial system characterized by two leading industries and four specialty industries, with a focus on new energy storage and intelligent connected vehicles [11] - Notable companies, including major service providers and software firms, have signed agreements to establish their headquarters in Tongliang, aiming for significant revenue growth by 2025 [12] - The conference set a goal to create a positive atmosphere for investment, aiming to attract more entrepreneurs to invest and settle in Tongliang [12]

Commodity Market Analytics董事总经理Dan Smith称："LME铜正面临一些压力，因为COMEX库存持续 上升，LME库存正在下降。" 5月30日（周五），伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价在美元走强的压力下下跌，但仍创下八个月来的最大 单月涨幅，原因是短期供应趋紧，现货铜合约对远期铜合约的溢价凸显了这一点。 伦敦时间5月30日17:00(北京时间5月31日00:00)，LME三个月期铜收低70美元或0.73%，收报每吨9,498 美元。该合约5月份上涨4.1%，创下9月份以来最强劲的一个月。 | | 5月30日LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 令屋 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 三个月期锅 | 9498.00 | 1 -70.00 -0.73% | | 三个月期铝 | 2444.00 | 1 -6.50 -0.27% | | 三个月期锌 | 2620.00 | - -55.50 -2.07% | | 三个月期铅 | 1958.00 -5.00 ↓ -0.25% | | | 三个月期镍 | 15237.00 -139.00 - ...

2025 年 05 月 29 日 铜：库存减少，限制价格下跌 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 77,870 | -0.04% | 77790 | -0.10% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,566 | -0.31% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 73,407 | -3,135 | 169,462 | 8,455 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 14,383 | -1,445 | 294,000 | 4,065 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 34,861 | -100 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 154,300 | -7,850 | 46.13% | -0.96% | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 较前日变动 | | | LME铜升贴水 保税区仓单升水 | | 44.97 89 ...

金十期货5月28日讯，据外媒报道，智利矿业部长Aurora Williams表示，智利国家铜业委员会 （Cochilco）将2025年铜价预估上调至每磅4.30美元，因称在中美暂时达成关税协议后，全球前景改 善。Cochilco还将2026年铜均价预估上调至每磅4.30美元。2月报告中对两年的均价预估都为4.25美元。 另外，Cochilco预测今年智利铜产量将增加3%，2026年将继续增加3%，届时将触及584万吨。产量指导 较Cochilco的2月预测下滑，2月预测2025年产量增速为4.6%，2026年增速为3.6%。 智利Cochilco上调铜价预估 ...

智利：预计2025年铜产量将达到567万吨。 ...

Core Insights - Copper futures prices have reached a two-week high, driven by a significant decline in inventory levels, raising questions about the sustainability of this price increase [1] - Ongoing trade tensions remain a potential risk factor for the copper market, which could impact future price movements [1] Group 1 - The recent drop in copper inventory has contributed to the upward pressure on copper prices [1] - The current price trend indicates a potential bullish sentiment in the copper market, contingent on inventory levels and external economic factors [1] - Trade tensions are highlighted as a looming concern that could affect market stability and investor confidence in copper prices [1]