Group 1 - The Trump administration is expected to take measures to alleviate the impact of its auto tariff policy, including preventing the stacking of tariffs on imported cars and easing tariffs on certain imported auto parts [1][4] - The decision will have retroactive effects, allowing car manufacturers who have already paid tariffs to apply for refunds [1][4] - The new measures include adjustments to the previously announced 25% tariff on foreign auto parts, with potential tax refunds for manufacturers based on the value of cars produced domestically [4][5] Group 2 - The 25% tariff on imported cars and key auto parts officially took effect on May 3, which is seen as a significant escalation in the trade war following tariffs on steel and aluminum [4][5] - The tariffs are expected to have a severe impact on economies of neighboring countries like Canada and Mexico, as well as allies such as the EU, Japan, and South Korea, prompting strong reactions from foreign governments [4][5] - Many U.S. companies and media outlets express concerns that the auto tariffs could negatively affect the U.S. economy, with predictions of increased car costs for consumers and potential job losses in the auto industry [5]

张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 全球贸易环境拖累棉价，短期保持观望 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-29 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万吨，进口量也减少了 20 万吨， 降至 150 万吨。近期，新疆大部分地区气温偏高，这对棉花的播种总体上是 有利的。 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURE ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration's trade policies have led to significant market volatility and increased living costs for American consumers, with a projected 65% rise in clothing prices and an 87% rise in shoe prices due to tariffs [2][4] - The Federal Reserve's financial stability report indicates that 73% of respondents view global trade risks as a primary concern, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies [2][4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.8% and 3% respectively, citing the uncertainty created by U.S. trade policies [4] Group 2 - Trump's approval ratings have dropped to 39%, marking the lowest approval rating for a U.S. president in their first 100 days in the last 80 years, reflecting public dissatisfaction with his policies [3][5] - Protests against the Trump administration's policies, including immigration and tariffs, have occurred in multiple U.S. cities, indicating widespread public discontent [3] - The uncertainty in trade policies has led to a significant increase in consumer inflation expectations, with a one-year inflation expectation of 6.5%, the highest since 1981 [2][3]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 28 日 热点品种 沥青： 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升 2.0 个百分点至 30.7%，较去年同期高了 7.1 个百分点，沥青开工率继续回升，升至近年同期中性偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据， 5 月份预计排产 231.8 万吨，环比增加 2.9 万吨，增幅为 1.3%，同比增加 3 万 吨，增幅为 1.3%。上周沥青下游开工率环比提升，其中道路沥青开工环比增加 4.5 个百分点至 24.5%，开工率提升较快，但仍处于偏低水平。上周炼厂复产叠 加节前备货，沥青出货量增加明显，全国出货量环比增加 42.42%至 29.11 万吨， 升至中性偏低位。沥青炼厂库存存货比上周环比略有下降，仍处于近年来同期的 最低位，南方有降雨间歇影响，沥青实际需求仍有待恢复。4 月 16 日，美国财政 部制裁购买伊朗原油的山东胜星化工，表示要将伊朗的非法石油出口降至零。近 期美国加大对伊朗的制裁，美伊第三轮间接会谈结束，伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示， 双方仍存在分歧。但双方承诺会 ...

在一家陶瓷家居企业展位上，参展商通过实景拍摄，在线上同步展示展品的亮点，实现全球贸易"朋友圈"扩容。参展商表示，他 们每年做一个纪录片，分享到各大社媒，包括海外的网站。广交会有巨大的影响力，能够让许多一些海外没法来到现场的客户了解企 业，从而提升在国际上的影响力。俄罗斯采购商称，广交会上有很多漂亮的东西，但是客户没有时间，不能来，她拍视频拍照，发给 他们。 线上线下齐发力 实现全球贸易"朋友圈"扩容 中国外贸企业调整市场布局 释放更多潜力 在家居展区，这家户外家具用品参展商吸引了众多海外采购商驻足询价。负责人介绍，十几年前，他们正是通过广交会成功打开 了欧美市场。面对当下外贸局势，他们正调整市场布局、开拓新市场。 央视网消息：第137届广交会第二期4月27日闭幕。广交会承办方中国对外贸易中心信息显示，截至27日，已有来自全球219个国 家和地区的224372名境外采购商到会，创同期历史新高。在全球贸易秩序面临新挑战的背景下，中国外贸企业展现出强大的韧性和活 力，以自身的确定性应对外部的不确定性，积极布局多元化市场。 承接广交会 浙江义乌包机邀外商"买买买" 每年广交会期间，境外采购商慕名到浙江义乌采购早已成为 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - LME three-month copper prices fell significantly in early April, dropping 11% in the first two weeks, erasing all gains for the year, with a low of $8,613 per ton on April 9 [2] - Copper prices rebounded in the following weeks due to U.S. tariff exemptions on certain electronic imports and a significant decline in the dollar [3] Group 2: Exports - Chile, the largest copper exporter, shipped 93,909 tons of copper to the U.S. in the first two months of 2025, a 53% increase year-on-year, as traders aimed to avoid potential import tariffs [3] - China's refined copper exports surged 156% year-on-year in Q1, reaching 117,491 tons [4] Group 3: Imports - China's refined copper imports in March 2025 totaled 354,275.469 tons, a month-on-month increase of 16.11% and a year-on-year increase of 11.80%, with significant increases from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Russia [5] - U.S. refined copper imports rose 43% year-on-year in February to 58,326 tons, with shipments from Chile increasing by 53% [6] Group 4: Consumption - Global refined copper consumption is estimated to have increased by 9% year-on-year in February, driven by demand recovery in major consuming countries [7] - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI for March was reported at 51.2, up 0.4 points from February, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities [8] Group 5: Production - Global refined copper production is expected to grow by 9% in the first two months of the year [10] - Codelco's copper production in Chile declined for the second consecutive month, with February output down 6% year-on-year to 98,100 tons, attributed to operational disruptions at key mines [10] - In contrast, BHP's Escondida mine saw a 16% year-on-year increase in production in February, reaching 113,400 tons [10]

Core Points - The Trade and Investment Promotion Summit will be held on May 22, 2025, at Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, approved by the State Council [1] - The theme of this year's summit is "Embracing the Digital Intelligence Era, Hand in Hand for Common Development" [1] - The summit will feature an opening ceremony, a plenary session, and three parallel forums focusing on various topics related to digital intelligence and global trade cooperation [1] - The summit aims to release the "2025 Beijing Initiative" to encourage global business communities to explore new forms and fields of cooperation for stronger, greener, and healthier global development [1]

文 ｜ 明明 彭阳 章立聪 周成华 我们基于4月以来的高频数据，分析了美国"对等关税"政策以来我国出口以及经济运行的情况。数据显示，美国加征关税及取消 小额包裹免税政策对出口链条形成显著冲击，义乌小商品出口价格指数与总价格指数出现分化，反映出出口与内销市场结构的 调整；集装箱运价分化则揭示出制造业对外需变化的高度敏感性。同时，原油及化工品期货价格走弱，表明中游产业链承受下 行压力，PPI面临回落的风险。尽管如此，沥青装置开工率等数据回升，表明基建投资需求有所支撑。4月新兴产业EPMI大幅回 落至4 9 . 4%，进一步印证外部冲击对新兴制造业景气度的压制。本轮外部冲击主要通过需求端传导，企业应对策略呈现分化，未 来出口修复的关键在于市场多元化和全球贸易的改善。 4月新兴产业EPMI指数大幅回落至4 9 . 4%，环比下降1 0 . 2个百分点，远超正常季节性波动水平。这一变化主要由外需冲击主 导，关税加征直接压制了出口订单，企业生产同步收缩。不同于疫情时期以供给收缩为特征，本轮冲击是需求侧主导。面对突 发性外部冲击，不同企业展现出差异化应对策略：一部分企业暂停扩张、转向新兴市场、或局部产能外迁以规避关税风险； ...

"全球贸易战的始作俑者" ——多国媒体和专家批评美国滥施关税 科摩罗主流网络媒体科摩罗新闻网批评美国以"全球贸易警察"自居发起关税战，不仅是蓄意挑 衅，更是犯下战略错误，由此引发的经济紧张局势让世界变得十分脆弱。 克罗地亚经济分析师佩塔尔·武什科维奇表示，美国关税政策可能成为"全球经济衰退的导火索"。 从全球股市剧烈波动可以看出，经济衰退迹象已经显现，所有利益相关方都面临美国带来的风 险。 美国新一届政府上台后，推出一系列规模大、范围广、破坏性强的关税政策，引发国际社会广泛 批评。多国人士及国际舆论指出，美国单方面挑起全球贸易战并将关税工具化、武器化，美方霸 凌胁迫之举逆世界潮流而动，只会害人害己。 将世界经济置于危险境地 如果将一系列最新关税措施相叠加，美国关税税率将攀升至一个多世纪以来最高水平。不少媒体 报道说，美国在历史上屡次挑起贸易战，当前做法更是变本加厉。 彭博社刊文将美国称作"全球贸易战的始作俑者"。文章说，如果所谓"对等关税"全部生效，这将 是美国自1968年以来最大规模的一次加税，而"白宫没有任何后备措施来避免经济衰退"。 斯里兰卡卫报网刊文说，美国继近一个世纪前发动全球贸易战后，如今再次挥舞 ...