Core Viewpoint - Consumption is a crucial engine for economic growth and a key element in promoting domestic circulation, reflecting the direct needs of people's quality of life. Xiamen International Bank actively responds to the national strategy of "expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption" by leveraging consumer loans as a key tool to activate consumption potential [1] Group 1: Consumer Loan Initiatives - Xiamen International Bank is implementing consumer loan discount activities to stimulate consumption, offering preferential interest rates and distributing over 5,000 discount coupons to eligible customers. The bank aims to exceed 30 billion yuan in personal consumer loan issuance by 2025 [2] - The bank has launched various marketing campaigns focused on daily consumption scenarios, such as transportation and entertainment, to inject new vitality into the consumption market [2] Group 2: Product Optimization and Service Enhancement - The bank continuously optimizes personal consumer loan products, introducing flexible repayment options and a streamlined online renewal process to meet diverse customer needs [3] - The bank's housing loan services are comprehensive, supporting various scenarios such as mortgage transfers and providing exclusive services for overseas Chinese and residents from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan [4] Group 3: Payment Services and Consumer Benefits - Xiamen International Bank has enhanced payment convenience by offering a range of specialized credit card benefits tailored to different consumer groups, improving the overall consumer experience [5] Group 4: Consumer Protection and Safety Measures - The bank emphasizes consumer rights protection and collaborates with local law enforcement to ensure customer fund security, while also conducting financial education and anti-fraud campaigns to enhance consumer awareness [6] - The bank is committed to fulfilling its social responsibility by activating consumption engines and creating a safe consumption environment, thereby contributing to economic circulation and improving residents' quality of life [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada's Governor Macklem indicated that domestic demand in Canada was weak in the first quarter, and if tariffs and uncertainty persist, households and businesses may continue to adopt a cautious stance [1] Group 1 - The first quarter saw a decline in domestic demand in Canada [1] - Ongoing tariffs and uncertainty are likely to contribute to a cautious attitude among households and businesses [1]

报告导读： 2025 年下半年，外需拖累逐步显现，叠加去年四季度基数偏高影响，预计宏观经济仍有温和回落压力。结构 来看，近两年依靠生产扩张与制造业投资对冲地产与内需偏弱，但也面临出口回落、产能利用率偏低、利润下滑 对供给端的掣肘。内需中的消费、地产、地方基建在一系列稳增长对冲举措落地的情况下，有所修复但斜率偏 平。外需方面，在贸易摩擦带来的需求前置效应减弱后，对国内经济的拖累作用逐步显现。政策方面，在"实施 更加积极有为的宏观政策"导向下，政策将延续稳增长、稳信心、稳资产的基调，择机落地积极的财政和货币工 具，加快提振内需，稳定地产，促进产业转型升级，推动经济稳中有进。 当前宏观面仍维持低需求低价格（通胀）与低库存的三低格局，政策底明确但超预期概率不高，外需不确定 性仍存，内部传统经济如地产行业仍在磨底。去年的年报观点里我们认为"库存周期上看，中美的周期共振先下 才能打出往上的空间"，而当下中美正处于去库共振阶段，整体商品需求侧支撑较弱。在政策底线明确的情况下， 人民币资产配置下半年进入债市高位震荡防阶段性变盘、股市捕捉结构性行情和商品底部震荡等待驱动的节奏。 内外部的政策刺激力度与贸易战谈判的结果构成宏观面 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月18日 投资建议： 建材方面，国际贸易冲突加剧背景下，扩内需稳增长政策有望加码，建材整 体仍以内需为主导，板块基本面进一步恶化空间有限，同时有望受益后续政 策倾斜，目前板块估值和持仓均处于底部，逢低择优布局经营韧性更强的消 费建材龙头，尤其零售端受益二手房景气及存量改造需求率先迎来改善，推 荐三棵树、北新建材、兔宝宝、伟星新材、东方雨虹，关注科顺股份；同时 受益复价落地带来盈利中枢上移，业绩同比修复确定性更强的水泥玻纤板 块，推荐海螺水泥、华新水泥、中国巨石、中材科技，关注塔牌集团等，以 及玻璃龙头底部配置机会旗滨集团。 建筑建材双周报（2025 年第 11 期） 优于大市 地产基建景气回落，增量政策预期增强 地产基建景气回落，增量政策预期增强。2025 年 1-5 月，固定资产投资同比 +3.7%，增速环比收窄 0.3 个百分点，狭义基建投资同比+5.6%，增速环比收 窄 0.2 个百分点，房地产开发投资同比-10.7%；新开工面积同比-22.8%；竣 工面积同比-17.3%，新建商品房销售面积同比-2.9%。固投和基建增速环比 收窄，房地产数据仍然疲软，二手房挂牌量创新高 ...

6月17日，中信建投证券2025年中期资本市场投资峰会在上海举办，主题为"开新局·赢未来"。 中信建投证券研究团队认为，中国经济稳步回升与产业创新突破正重塑全球对中国资产的认知。 展望 后市，A股市场中枢有望随流动性逐渐上移，消费、科技、产业、红利或是四大配置主线。 图片来源：中信建投证券 中国资产吸引力持续提升 "中国经济2025年起步平稳，经济回升向好的态势持续巩固，中国资产吸引力正在不断提升。"中信建投 证券总经理金剑华在致辞中表示，我国科技不断创新和产业持续升级，正在重塑国内外对中国经济前景 和资产定价认知。科技创新引领、消费提振和内需扩张持续升级、财政政策不断发力等，经济和市场的 信心稳步走强。 在金剑华看来，随着全球范围内新一轮科技浪潮和产业变革深入发展，驱动中国经济发展的核心动力正 在从要素投入规模扩张转向创新引领的效率提升，发展新质生产力已经成为推动高质量发展的关键着力 点。创新需要更具灵活性和包容性的融资环境，资本市场独特的风险回报机制，能够有效促进创新资本 形成，激发企业家精神和创新创造活力，这对于助力产业转型升级，促进科技、产业和金融高水平循环 尤为重要。在全球金融市场动荡背景下，中国资 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has maintained a volatile trend this year, with private equity institutions seizing opportunities, resulting in impressive performance [1] - As of May 31, 682 index-enhanced products with performance displays achieved an average return of 10.59% and an average excess return of 11.92%, with 94.57% of products showing positive excess returns [1] - Among these, 403 products had excess returns of at least 10%, with 312 products in the range of 10%-19.99%, 76 products between 20%-29.99%, and 15 products exceeding 30% [1] Group 2 - The CSI 1000 index-enhanced products had an average excess return of 10.95%, with 97.66% of products achieving positive excess returns, while the index itself had a positive average return of 12.24% [1] - The CSI 500 index-enhanced products had an average excess return of 10.25%, with 96.95% of products showing positive excess returns, but the index's negative performance resulted in an average return of 9.20% [1] Group 3 - The CSI 300 index-enhanced products performed the worst, with an average excess return of 5.02% and an average return of only 2.49% due to significant drag from the index [2] - Other index-enhanced products performed exceptionally well, with 60 products achieving an average return of 13.64% and an average excess return of 16.42%, all showing positive excess returns [2] - Air index-enhanced products had an average return of 11.35% and an average excess return of 13.66%, with 90.31% of products achieving positive excess returns [2] Group 4 - Starstone Investment suggests focusing on whether companies exhibit positive changes and if these changes are fully priced in by the market, rather than following stocks with high cumulative gains [3] - Zhengyuan Investment emphasizes adjusting holdings to avoid external disturbances and seek incremental growth, reducing exposure to export-oriented companies affected by tariff disputes while increasing positions in sectors related to the Belt and Road Initiative, domestic consumption upgrades, and military demand [3]

连续调整多日的食品饮料板块近期逐步企稳，今日早盘逆势走强，燕京啤酒涨超6%，金种子酒、珠江 啤酒涨超4%。受盘面影响，食品饮料ETF天弘（159736）早盘一度涨超1%。 值得注意的是，近期食品饮料板块持续调整，中证食品饮料指数近一个月累计下跌超5%，近三个月累 计下跌超9%，在各大板块中跌幅居前。成分股中，贵州茅台更是从5月份高点1645元一度跌至1401.18 元，期间累计跌幅约15%。 消息面上，白酒板块处于承压阶段，飞天茅台价格持续走低，月初散瓶飞天平台报价跌破2000元。但在 券商看来，白酒商品属性正在加速重塑，能够提前适应快消品运作逻辑的企业竞争优势会愈发凸显。 有机构人士指出，目前食品饮料目前各细分板块基本面触底，乳制品、啤酒、饮料、门店类型企业有企 稳信号，Q1业绩分别在利润、销量等方面超预期；休闲食品板块具有开店和大单品逻辑的公司业绩表 现超预期；白酒板块仍然处于库存去化阶段，预计25H2有边际改善的可能。食品饮料作为内需板块， 受关税影响小，市场关注度显著提升带来资金面改善，有望拔升估值。若后期茅台散装报价企稳，白酒 行业基本面有望触底，带动食品饮料板块反弹。 场外投资者可以持续关注天弘中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expansion of consumer demand and the significant potential for financial services in China are highlighted, with foreign institutions expected to thrive in sectors like consumer finance and inclusive finance [1] Group 1: Consumer Demand and Market Potential - Consumer demand has become the main driver of China's economic growth, with the market size being the second largest globally [1] - China leads the world in service consumption volumes for automobiles, mobile phones, and home appliances, indicating a robust growth phase in service consumption [1] - There remains a significant growth potential in service consumption, with a gap of over ten percentage points compared to developed countries [1] Group 2: Policy and Economic Environment - The steady advancement of new urbanization and the emergence of new consumption formats are contributing to the release of incremental consumption potential [1] - Policies such as visa-free transit and tax refunds are continuously optimized to enhance consumer spending [1] - The implementation of strategies to expand domestic demand and investments in human capital is leading to steady increases in residents' income and improved livelihood security [1] Group 3: Role of Foreign Institutions - Many foreign institutions possess rich experience and unique expertise in consumer finance and inclusive finance [1] - The deepening of foreign institutions in the Chinese market is expected to yield significant opportunities [1]

风险提示： 理财赎回风险；转债转股溢价率压缩风险；转债正股表现不及预期。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 估值蓄力，坚守主线——转债市场点评 报告日期：2025.06.17 报告作者： 顾一格 （分析师），登记编号： S0880522120006 报告导读： 当前转债估值较4月初略有下降，性价比有所提升。建议通过布局自主可 控、内需发力和红利三条主线降低关税影响，提前布局优质底仓替代标的。 5月12日中美日内瓦协议落地以来，权益市场并未大涨，而是维持窄幅波动。 我们认为一方面是因为关税 摩擦缓和预期已经在4月8日-5月12日的反弹中被市场充分定价，另一方面，市场担心2018年中美达成协议 后美方单方面撕毁协议的情况再次发生。事实上，自中美日内瓦经贸会谈以来，美方新增多项对华限制措 施，包括发布AI芯片出口管制指南、停止对华芯片设计软件销售、宣布撤销中国留学生签证等。在刚刚结 束的中美伦敦会谈中，就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原 则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。紧张关系暂时缓和，但结构性矛盾仍未根本性解决。中美 之间的结 ...

Group 1 - The core task for China's economic development post-pandemic is to expand domestic consumption, especially in light of rising protectionism from the U.S. under Trump, which necessitates a focus on increasing domestic demand [1] - Distinguishing between consumer desire and consumer ability is essential for formulating targeted policies to expand domestic demand, requiring an understanding of the saturation point of consumer desire [1][2] - Consumer desire is characterized by its "non-satiation" nature, meaning consumers always prefer more to less, while consumer ability is influenced by income, wealth, and access to credit [2][7] Group 2 - Different categories of consumer goods, such as food, durable goods, and services, exhibit varying saturation points, with food consumption stability indicated by the Engel coefficient remaining between 28% and 30% from 2015 to 2024 [3] - The average annual per capita grain consumption in urban areas has stabilized between 109 kg and 125 kg from 2013 to 2024, with a decline starting in 2021 [3] - Durable goods like washing machines and computers reached saturation points in 2012, while the ownership of refrigerators and air conditioners saw a decline followed by growth due to factors like real estate development [4] Group 3 - The saturation of certain consumer goods indicates a need for high-quality development and product upgrades, while sectors like air conditioning and automotive still have significant growth potential [5] - The overall consumption saturation point in China is expected to decline due to accelerating population aging and decreasing natural growth rates [5] - Consumer ability in China shows significant disparities, with low-income households relying on credit or wealth smoothing for consumption beyond basic needs [7] Group 4 - To activate consumer desire, it is crucial to recognize the non-satiation of consumer quantity and the diminishing marginal utility, while also providing high-quality and innovative products [8] - A differentiated sales strategy is recommended to cater to varying consumer abilities, with high-quality products targeting high-income groups and cost-effective options for low-income consumers [8]