中东地缘局势再现"黑天鹅"事件！ 北京时间6月13日晚，欧洲股市开盘集体大跌。美股期指亦全线大跌，恐慌指数VIX一度飙涨 22%。 消息面上，据央视新闻报道，当地时间13日凌晨，以色列国防军对包括伊朗核设施在内的多 处目标发动打击。 据央视新闻最新消息，以色列外交部13日发布声明表示，以色列驻世界各地的使馆将关闭， 不再提供领事服务。该部门还建议所有海外以色列人填写调查问卷，向以色列通报他们的位 置和情况。 此外，据伊朗民航组织当地时间13日发布的消息，当前伊朗所有机场的国内和国际航班暂 停，直至另行通知。 另据新华社援引伊朗学生通讯社13日报道，伊朗信息和通讯部当天发表声明说，由于伊朗的 特殊情况和有关部门采取的措施，伊朗限制全国的互联网访问。一旦情况恢复正常，互联网 限制将被取消。 在中东紧张局势冲击下，6月13日，国际油价一度暴涨逾10%。 在以色列袭击伊朗导致油价飙升后，法荷航集团股价一度大跌超6%，德国汉莎航空股价一度 大跌超5%。美国航空公司股价美股盘前也全线大跌，达美航空、联合大陆航空、美国航空均 大跌超4%，西南航空跌超2%。 以色列此次空袭伊朗与以往有何不同？ 据央视新闻报道，中国现代国际关 ...

Group 1 - The third China-ASEAN Defense Think Tank Exchange will be held from June 18 to 20 in Guiyang, focusing on promoting regional peace and building a secure community [1] - The theme of the event is "Promoting Regional Peace and Building a Secure Community," emphasizing defense cooperation and maritime security [1] - Participants will include defense policy officials and experts from China, ASEAN countries, East Timor, and representatives from the ASEAN Secretariat [1]

文 | 《BUG》栏目 张奥 今年"6·18"已进行大半，各大平台打得热火朝天，曾经的"美妆一哥"李佳琦悄悄"翻车"了。 截至目前，在黑猫投诉 【下载黑猫投诉客户端】平台，与李佳琦相关的投诉近2万条，多数与质量问题 有关。 越卖越贵？ 每年"6·18"都是各大主播们展现实力的大好机会，对消费者而言，谁能给到最有诱惑力的价格，就更愿 意到哪买单。 "6·18"预售时，初始价格约2900元的扫地机器人，在李佳琦直播间用券后不足1500元，大批用户买单。 事后，有多位网友透露被关闭了订单，他们质疑"李佳琦用低价骗流量？" 此外有多位网友发文称被李佳琦"价格背刺"： 毛戈平气垫比去年双十一贵了40元； 听研建构套组直播间价格比正常购买还要贵； 可复美套装比去年同期贵100元； BOBBI BROWN卸妆油贵近40元； …… 作为"老牌美妆一哥"的李佳琦自然也是不留余力，搬来了包括娇兰、希思黎、雅诗兰黛、YSL等在内的 化妆品大牌。 据青眼情报统计，截至5月14日凌晨1：30，李佳琦直播间美妆类目GMV超25亿元，对比2023年同期 （截至5月20日凌晨2点）近50亿元的峰值，同比大幅下滑。业内人士认为，这背后实际反映 ...

Core Insights - The UK higher education sector is facing significant financial pressures, leading to widespread layoffs, course closures, and restructuring plans across nearly 100 universities [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - The total revenue for the UK higher education sector for the 2023/2024 academic year is projected to be £52.3 billion, with 52% of this revenue coming from tuition fees, and international student fees accounting for an average of 23% of total income [4]. - A report from the Office for Students (OfS) indicates that 43% of surveyed institutions expect to run deficits in the 2024/2025 academic year, marking the third consecutive year of declining financial performance [1]. International Student Enrollment - The number of international student visas issued by the UK government decreased by approximately 64,000 in 2024, a decline of 13.9% compared to the previous year, with significant reductions in visas for students from India (26% decrease) and Nigeria (55% decrease) [5]. - The attractiveness of studying in the UK peaked in 2022, but has since declined due to slow economic recovery post-pandemic and changes in visa policies [5][6]. Domestic Student Trends - The cap on tuition fees for full-time undergraduate students in England has remained at £9,250 since 2012, with a slight increase planned for the 2025/2026 academic year [6]. - The enrollment rate for 18-year-olds in higher education has dropped from a peak of 38.2% in 2021 to 36.4% in 2024, indicating a potential decline in domestic student interest [6]. Institutional Responses - In response to financial challenges, universities are implementing cost-cutting measures, including course cancellations, reduced maintenance budgets, and layoffs, with 50% of surveyed institutions reporting course cancellations [7][8]. - The financial strain is affecting the job market for academic positions, leading to increased competition as experienced faculty return to the job market [8]. Government Policies and Future Outlook - The UK government has proposed a 6% tax on revenue from international student tuition fees, with limited details on how the funds will be utilized [9]. - The potential for attracting international students from the US due to changing policies there is being discussed, but long-term impacts on global academic collaboration remain uncertain [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - SAIC Volkswagen is facing a significant crisis in the rapidly evolving electric vehicle market, where the growth of range-extended and hybrid vehicles has outpaced that of pure electric vehicles, prompting a strategic shift towards developing range-extended products like the ID.ERA, set to launch in 2026 [1][2][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The pure electric vehicle market grew by 107% in 2023 compared to 2021, while range-extended and hybrid products surged by 492%, nearly five times the growth of pure electric vehicles [1]. - SAIC Volkswagen's ID. series has sold over 180,000 units in two and a half years, making it the leading joint venture electric vehicle series, although it has not met initial sales targets of 200,000 to 300,000 units annually [4][20]. Group 2: Strategic Shifts - The company has initiated the development of its first range-extended SUV, ID.ERA, to compete with models like Li Auto's L8/L9, marking a significant strategic pivot towards range-extended vehicles [2][10]. - The partnership with Volkswagen has evolved into a "Joint Venture 2.0" model, where product definition rights are transferred to China, allowing for more localized decision-making [7][8]. Group 3: Internal Changes and Leadership - The company has adopted a "red-blue army" strategy, inspired by Huawei, to foster internal competition and improve product development processes [5][24]. - The leadership emphasizes the importance of crisis awareness, a principle instilled since the company's early days, to adapt to market changes and consumer preferences [21][22]. Group 4: Product Development Focus - Key focus areas for the ID.ERA include achieving industry-leading energy management systems and enhancing smart cabin and driving assistance technologies [10][11]. - The development process involves careful trade-offs to ensure optimal vehicle weight and safety features, such as a backup capacitor system for accident scenarios, despite increasing costs [12][13]. Group 5: Marketing and Sales Strategies - The company has implemented a "one-price" sales model to simplify the purchasing process and enhance customer trust, moving away from traditional negotiation practices [31][33]. - Upcoming marketing strategies for 2025 and 2026 will focus on improving service quality and launching multiple new energy products, with a commitment to elevating customer satisfaction [34][36].

Core Viewpoint - White Elephant Food is facing public scrutiny due to trademark issues related to its "Half Bag Noodles" and "Half Bucket Noodles" products, which mislead consumers regarding the actual weight of the products [1][2] Group 1: Trademark Controversy - The packaging of "Half Bag Noodles" and "Half Bucket Noodles" claims "large quantity, double satisfaction," leading consumers to believe the products contain significantly more than standard offerings [1] - Actual weight comparisons show that the "Half Bag Noodles" only contain 25 grams more than the regular version, which is a 1/5 to 1/4 increase, contrary to consumer expectations [1] Group 2: Company Response - White Elephant's customer service confirmed that "Half" is a trademark and that the actual weight is as stated on the packaging, acknowledging the public's perception of "playing with words" [2] - The company issued an apology and announced plans to rename the products to "Noodle Cake 120g" and "Noodle Cake 110g," ceasing production of the original packaging within the month [2] Group 3: Company Performance and Market Position - White Elephant Food has experienced significant fluctuations in its market presence, initially gaining popularity with its 1 yuan bone soup noodles in 2003 but later facing competition from brands like Jinmailang [3] - The company rebounded after the "soil pit pickled cabbage" incident in 2022, which improved its brand image and led to a surge in sales, reaching 9.175 billion yuan in 2023, surpassing Jinmailang to become the third in the industry [3] - Despite revenue growth, White Elephant is criticized for its over-reliance on online channels and an imbalanced development between online and offline sales [3]

以色列对伊朗的打击引发航运业对中东关键水道的担忧。此次空袭标志着该地区紧张局势的重大升级， 全球石油供应和贸易命脉正面临前所未有的威胁。 周五凌晨，以色列袭击了伊朗境内包括核设施与军事基地在内的主要目标，此举不仅激化矛盾，更可能 招致不可避免的报复。德黑兰已明确警告邻国将为此付出"非常沉重的代价"。 "若伊朗通过强制关闭海峡扩大报复范围，影响将极其严重，"安全咨询公司Risk Intelligence首席执行官 汉森（Hans Tino Hansen）警告。Rystad Energy分析师莱昂（Jorge Leon）预估，若伊朗中断海峡石油运 输并袭击地区原油设施或美军资产，市场反应或呈"灾难性"，油价可能暴涨20美元以上。 周五的袭击将推高船舶通行安全保障服务的需求。德鲁里海事服务总监克里希纳（Jayendu Krishna）指 出，中东占全球干散货贸易逾10%，涉及矿石等大宗商品运输，"往返中东的额外战争风险溢价将急剧 攀升，供应链调整需要时间"。 局势恶化速度令航运业猝不及防。至少两家安全风险与危机管理公司正敦促商船采取额外防护或彻底避 开该区域。 据彭博获取的EOS Risk Group警报，进入以色 ...

Group 1 - The core team for South Korean President Lee Jae-myung's foreign and security policy has been largely finalized, with key ministerial appointments expected soon [1][3] - The proposed candidates for the Ministry of Unification, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Ministry of National Defense are all long-time political allies of Lee, indicating a focus on stable governance and a crisis-responsive diplomatic and security framework [3][4] - Newly appointed National Security Office Director Wei Seung-lok and Foreign Minister nominee Zhao Hyun are both experienced in international relations, with Wei specializing in U.S. affairs and North Korean diplomacy, while Zhao has extensive experience in multilateral diplomacy and international trade [3][4] Group 2 - Zhao Hyun's involvement in the development of Lee Jae-myung's "pragmatic diplomacy" strategy and his moderate stance on North Korea policy are seen as significant advantages for his role as Foreign Minister [4] - The appointment of former Trade Minister Kim Hyun-jong as a special advisor on foreign affairs and security reflects Lee's consideration of his trade expertise and negotiation style [4] - To minimize administrative gaps, Lee appointed two deputy ministers in the Foreign Ministry ahead of the G7 summit, ensuring continuity in foreign affairs operations [4]

在人类的历史长河里，总有某些现象、某些趋势、某些规律，会在不同的时间、不同的地点， 以相似的方式轮番上演。 点击上图▲立即报名 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 美国著名作家马克·吐温说："历史不会重复，但总是惊人地相似。" 当眼前迷茫、心中焦虑的时候，回到历史中，站在更高的视角、更远的站位，或许会有新的灵 感迸发出来。 6月4日到10日，"2025·吴晓波激荡讲堂"夏季课之《中国现代化180年》来到意大利，在文艺复 兴的星空下，开启一场跨越时空的文明对话。 近一周的时间，吴老师从洋务运动、民国经济讲到计划经济和改革开放，延伸至全球化变局和 中美关系，在百余年历史的宽度中，回顾"激荡四十七年"的得失；又带领大家深入米兰和威尼 斯，从理论和实践两个层面，分享最新的经济、商业思考和实战经验。 激荡讲堂已经走过了三年，这一次，除了有来自全国各地的新同学，还有近三分之一是激荡讲 堂的资深同学，更有连续三年来打卡的"元老级"同学。 苟日新，日日新，又日新，大家一同跟随吴老师在对历史的回望中攫取新的滋养。同学们纷纷 在朋友圈写下自己的感悟： 我是激荡讲堂的老同学，很高兴能跟大家再次相聚。我觉得激荡讲堂带给了我很多 ...

Group 1 - The recent crash of an Indian Airlines Boeing 787-8 resulted in the death of all 242 people on board, marking the first accident for this aircraft model [2][5] - Boeing has faced multiple safety incidents in recent years, including three accidents involving the Boeing 737-800 in December 2023, leading to increased scrutiny of the company's safety practices [2][3] - Boeing's financial performance has been severely impacted, with a reported revenue of $66.5 billion in the previous year, a 14% decline year-over-year, and a net loss of approximately $11.8 billion in 2024 [2][11] Group 2 - The Boeing 787 series, which includes the 787-8, 787-9, and 787-10, has been noted for its low fuel consumption and high efficiency, but has also faced significant operational challenges, including multiple delivery pauses due to manufacturing defects [6][12] - Since 2018, Boeing has experienced at least 21 safety incidents involving its aircraft, contributing to a loss of market confidence and a decline in orders compared to competitors like Airbus [6][10] - Boeing's market share in China has decreased, with Airbus now holding a 52.2% share compared to Boeing's 40.8%, exacerbated by the introduction of domestic competitors like COMAC [9][10] Group 3 - Boeing's CEO has identified 2025 as a critical year for business restructuring, with plans to increase production of the 737 MAX and reduce costs through asset sales, including a recent $10.55 billion deal to sell part of its digital aviation solutions business [12] - The company has been in a continuous state of financial loss since 2019, with cumulative losses exceeding $35.6 billion, prompting significant workforce reductions and operational adjustments [11][12] - Boeing's delivery numbers have significantly lagged behind Airbus, with only 348 aircraft delivered in the past year, a nearly 35% decrease compared to the previous year [6][8]