[Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月03日 [table_invest] 标配 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 吴骏燕S0630517120001 wjyan@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张晶磊S0630524090001 zjlei@longone.com.cn 联系人 花雨欣 [Table_NewTitle 供给端扰动背景下，关注相关化工板块 ] 配置机会 ——基础化工行业周报（2025/05/26-2025/06/01） [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 本周重点新闻跟踪 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 hyx@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -30% -20% -10% -1% 9% 18% 28% 24-05 24-08 24-11 25-02 申万行业指数:基础化工(0722) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.日本 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is entering a critical phase of competition, with potential for increased volatility due to current policy signals, complex overseas variables, and subtle technical characteristics [1] - The People's Bank of China has emphasized "timely rate cuts" and has implemented liquidity support measures, but the exact timing of these policies remains uncertain, leading to market speculation and potential short-term selling pressure [1][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index is testing key support levels around 3347 points, with 3300 points acting as a critical bull-bear line; a breach could trigger automated stop-loss orders [3] Group 2 - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in June may signal delayed rate cuts, which could strengthen the US dollar and pressure capital flows to emerging markets, impacting A-share growth stock valuations [3][4] - Trade policy risks, particularly regarding tariffs from the previous US administration, pose potential threats to China's export sectors, such as solar and electronics, which could see increased costs and reduced market share [3][4] Group 3 - The return of incremental capital is crucial for market recovery; historical data shows a 67% probability of increased trading volume on the first trading day after the holiday, but a volume below 1.2 trillion yuan may limit the rebound [4] - The technology growth sector is highlighted as a focus area, particularly in AI and semiconductor industries, which are benefiting from strong policy support, although caution is advised regarding overvalued stocks [5][7] Group 4 - Defensive asset allocation is recommended, with high-dividend stocks and resilient consumer sectors being prioritized; state-owned banks and regional power companies are noted for their stable cash flows and attractive dividend yields [6][8] - Essential consumer sectors, such as pork and food processing, are expected to perform well due to anticipated price increases and consumer recovery, providing a safe haven during market downturns [6][8] Group 5 - The market's adjustment is seen as a result of a policy vacuum and overseas disturbances, but the underlying logic of weak domestic economic recovery and industrial upgrades remains intact [9] - Investors are advised to maintain a strategy of "keeping core positions while being flexible with trading" and to wait for policy catalysts from the July Politburo meeting to seize long-term investment opportunities [9]

近期，多家权威媒体聚焦中国企业在防蛀原料奥拉氟成分上的技术突破。5月8日，央视网《世界微笑日 特别节目》对国内儿童口腔护理品牌兔头妈妈首次报道，展示了其自主合成的高纯度奥拉氟，在多方检 测下，防蛀性能远超进口。 在中国5岁儿童乳牙龋患率高达70.9%的现状下，这一重大防蛀科技突破后续引发极目新闻、新京报、 凤凰网等权威媒体密集关注，争相报道其背后的科研突围之路。 奥拉氟，正是国内近年来因防蛀性能优异而非常火热的成分。其源于欧洲上世纪50年代末60年代初，距 今已有60年应用历史。据公开资料显示，奥拉氟因其特殊分子结构带来了特殊的性能，如优异的延展 性，能在牙齿表面快速铺展形成一层保护膜；另外包裹性上，可以跟牙齿表面和口腔的软组织进行结 合，不易被食物带走，对牙齿可以长效保护；此外它在促进牙齿再矿化、增加抗酸蚀能力和抑菌能力 上，都有很好的表现。 目前市面上奥拉氟牙膏丰富，但备受追捧的奥拉氟原料实际上长期依赖进口。兔头妈妈研发科学家、浙 江大学高分子化学与物理博士王莎莎在接受极目新闻采访时提到，"在去年以前，全球具有生产奥拉氟 能力的企业只有三家，全部在欧洲。""为了产品升级，我们希望能够技术共享，但被对方拒绝 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computer industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The computer (Shenwan) index rose by 1.77% during the week of May 26 to May 30, 2025, reversing the downward trend of the previous two weeks, ranking fifth in terms of growth [4][11] - The EDA sub-sector performed exceptionally well, with companies like Gelun Electronics, Guangli Micro, and Huada Jiutian seeing growth rates exceeding 10% [21][22] - The U.S. government has effectively cut off certain American companies from selling semiconductor design software to China, which may accelerate the domestic EDA industry's development [22] Summary by Sections Index Performance - The computer (Shenwan) index increased by 1.77%, ranking fifth in growth, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.91%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.40% [11] - The sub-sector indices for computer equipment, software development, and IT services showed increases of 2.14%, 2.04%, and 1.18%, respectively [13] Major Events - The report highlights significant events such as the release of new AI products and acquisitions in the tech sector, indicating ongoing innovation and competition [16][17] Key Announcements - Newguo announced a stock option incentive plan involving 19 million shares, representing 3.35% of the company's total share capital, with a strike price of 25 yuan per share [2] - Hehe Information plans to issue H shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategy and competitiveness [2] Investment Insights - The report suggests that the domestic EDA market, which reached 12 billion yuan in 2023 and is expected to grow to 13.59 billion yuan in 2024, is likely to expand further due to increased domestic production rates [22] - The domestic EDA localization rate was 17.61% in 2023 and is projected to rise to 18.52% in 2024, indicating a shift away from reliance on foreign EDA giants [22]

Group 1 - The core index of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board for chips has risen by 1.70%, with significant gains from stocks such as Lanke Technology (up 7.46%) and SIRUI (up 6.81%) [1] - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588200) has shown a remarkable performance, with a cumulative increase of 60.52% over the past year, ranking first among comparable funds [1] - The trading volume of the Sci-Tech Chip ETF reached 7.30 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 2.89% [4] Group 2 - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF has seen a significant increase in scale, growing by 76.50 million yuan over the past two weeks, leading among comparable funds [4] - The ETF's share count has increased by 531 million shares in the same period, also ranking first among comparable funds [4] - The latest net inflow of funds into the Sci-Tech Chip ETF is 181 million yuan [4] Group 3 - A strategic merger was announced between Zhongke Shuguang, a main board company, and Haiguang Information, a Sci-Tech board company, marking a significant event in the capital market [4] - The semiconductor industry is entering a recovery phase driven by AI demand and domestic substitution trends, with expected revenue and net profit growth in the first quarter of 2024 and 2025 [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Sci-Tech Chip Index account for 57.93% of the index, with major players including SMIC and Haiguang Information [5]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the TMT sector, suggesting a focus on the recovery of overseas AI chain valuations [3]. Core Insights - Nvidia's B series shipments exceeded expectations, with Q1 FY26 revenue reaching $44 billion, surpassing guidance of $43 billion. The company anticipates Q2 FY26 revenue guidance of $45 billion (±2%). The acceleration in B series shipments is expected to boost the industry's overall outlook, particularly for domestic Nvidia supply chain companies [3]. - The DeepSeek-R1 model update has significantly improved reasoning performance, placing it among the top tier globally. The new model shows a 20% and 15% improvement in mathematical and programming capabilities, respectively, while still having limitations in multimodal recognition [3]. - The domestic EDA (Electronic Design Automation) industry is expected to accelerate its localization process due to potential service halts from U.S. semiconductor software suppliers. This could lead to increased market share for domestic companies [3]. Market Weekly Review - The TMT sector's performance from May 26 to May 30 showed a positive trend, with the computer sector up by 1.77%, media by 1.74%, and communication by 1.53%. The overall TMT sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, which declined by 1.08% [3][5]. - The top-performing sub-industries included vertical application software and other computer equipment, both up by 3.01%, while the optical components and brand consumer electronics sectors faced declines of 2.99% and 1.84%, respectively [3][5]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The report highlights significant events in the AI sector, including the upcoming global AI technology conference and various product launches from major companies like Apple and Tesla [17]. - DeepSeek's R1 model has been updated, enhancing its reasoning capabilities and narrowing the gap with leading international models [19]. - The report notes that the Chinese government is actively promoting AI integration in industrial applications, with financial support for companies developing industry-leading AI models [22].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the recovery of overseas AI chain valuations, indicating a positive outlook for the TMT sector [1]. Core Insights - The TMT sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, with notable gains in the computer and media industries [3]. - Nvidia's B series shipments exceeded expectations, with Q1 FY26 revenue reaching $44 billion, surpassing guidance [3]. - The release of the updated DeepSeek-R1 model positions it among the top global models, showcasing significant improvements in reasoning capabilities [3]. - The acceleration of domestic EDA (Electronic Design Automation) processes is anticipated due to potential service halts from U.S. semiconductor software suppliers [3]. Market Weekly Review - The TMT sector's performance from May 26 to May 30 showed a rise in computer (1.77%), media (1.74%), and communication (1.53%) industries, while electronics saw a decline of 0.59% [3][5]. - The top-performing sub-industries included vertical application software and other computer equipment, both rising by 3.01% [3][5]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - Nvidia's financial report indicated a strong outlook for Q2 FY26, with expected revenue guidance of $45 billion [3][26]. - The DeepSeek-R1 model's update enhances its reasoning performance, now ranking between Gemini 2.5 Pro and OpenAI-o3 [3][19]. - The potential U.S. ban on EDA software services could accelerate the domestic EDA industry's growth, with a market share currently dominated by three foreign companies [3][19].

中国 证券研究 2025 年 5 月 28 日 中微公司 - A 鉴于需求具有韧性且潜在市场扩大，成长性完好：科技 行业调研及分析师会议要点 我们在最近的科技行业调研期间拜访了中微公司，并参加了分析师会 议。得到的反馈再度证实了我们对公司的正面看法，包括 (1)先进存 储/逻辑晶圆厂加速扩产；(2)产品/客户验证加快；(3)产品组合扩大。 我们目前预计 2025-27 年营收/盈利年复合增长率分别为 49%/72%， 而公司目前股价继近期回调后对应 28 倍的动态市盈率。我们继续看 好中微公司；截至 2026 年 6 月的目标价 220 元基于 20 倍的一年动态 市盈率得出。 分析师声明及重要披露，包括非美国分析师披露，见第 3 页。 摩根大通与其研究报告所覆盖的公司开展业务，或寻求与这些公司开展业务。因此，投资者应意识到其中可能存 在利益冲突，进而可能会影响本报告的客观性。投资者在做出投资决策时，本报告之观点应仅作为投资者的考虑 因素之一。 增持 688012.SS, 688012 CH 股价: 170.93 元 2025 年 5 月 28 日 目标价: 220.00 元 目标价截至日期: 2026 年 ...

【DT新材料】 获悉，5月30日， 中简科技 发布公告，公司拟以自有资金投资建设高性能碳纤维产品项目， 总投资金额为14.02亿元，项目建设时间预 计36个月，项目建设规模为年产2000吨高性能碳纤维（涵盖T700级以上的高强型碳纤维）及配套产品项目，扩大聚丙烯腈原丝、碳纤维及碳纤维织物 的生产规模，增加高性能碳纤维的供应量 。 扩产原因主要是，随着下游应用领域的持续拓展和市场需求的快速增长，该公司现有碳纤维产能已难以满足客户持续需求，制约了其在技术创新、质量 提升和应用开发等方面的优势发挥，该公司亟需通过产能扩张来提升市场响应速度和供应保障能力。 中简科技目前主力产品为ZT7（性能高于T700级）和ZT9（性能对应T1000/T1100级）系列碳纤维产品， ZT7系列一、二期产能合计420吨，三期项目 （3条200吨ZT9系列）已经投产，且正在朝设计产能爬坡 。本次项目属于公司规划的四期项目，新建产能规模已经超过公司现有产能。 其中，核心产品ZT7系列碳纤维已批量供应军用战机、导弹卫星等尖端装备。此外， 公司正攻坚C919/C929预浸料国产化，技术指标直指日本东丽 TORAYCA®系列。若成功替代进口，单 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing projects of Chizhou Jushi Chemical Co., Ltd., which is planning to produce 250 tons of polyimide monomer and 9000 tons of photoresist through a phased construction approach [1] - The first phase involves the construction of a 250-ton polyimide monomer project, while the second and third phases will focus on 4500 tons of photoresist each [1] - Chizhou Jushi Chemical is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Guangdong Jushi Chemical Co., Ltd., which specializes in the R&D, production, and sales of chemical raw materials and new chemical materials [1] Group 2 - Guangdong Jushi Chemical is also developing the Anqing Juxin high-end new materials project, which covers an area of 300 acres with a total investment of approximately 3 billion yuan, including a 5300 square meter R&D center [1] - The first phase of the project involves a 2 billion yuan investment in a polystyrene project, while the second phase will invest 1.05 billion yuan in electronic chemicals, focusing on LCD display photoresist and polyimide monomer production [1] - The third phase aims to produce 300,000 tons of biodegradable plastics [1] Group 3 - Anqing Juxin New Materials has a subsidiary, Anhui Lavaxi Technology Co., Ltd., established in July 2023, which plans to produce LCD display chemicals and polyimide monomers [2]