Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - Infrastructure investment continues to support economic stability, with expectations for increased fiscal efforts in the second half of the year to drive high growth in infrastructure investment [1] - Real estate development investment has shown a decline of 11.2% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, while narrow and broad infrastructure investments have increased by 4.6% and 8.9% respectively [1] - Cement demand is stabilizing, with a production decline of 4.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, but a potential price rebound is anticipated due to local price increases in certain regions [3] - Flat glass production has decreased by 4.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with market demand remaining stable despite seasonal impacts [4] Summary by Sections Infrastructure Investment - In June, infrastructure investment growth slowed, attributed to reduced fiscal spending and weather disruptions, but remains crucial for economic stability [1] - The issuance of long-term special government bonds is expected to further support infrastructure investment [1] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales area decreased by 3.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with new construction area down by 20% [2] - Construction area saw a decline of 9.1% year-on-year, while completion area dropped by 14.8% [2] Cement Industry - Cement production in the first half of 2025 was 815 million tons, down 4.3% year-on-year, with a slight recovery in shipment rates observed in July [3] - The average cement price as of July 11 was 352 RMB per ton, down 43 RMB year-on-year [3] Glass Industry - Flat glass production in the first half of 2025 was 48.497 million weight cases, a decrease of 4.3% year-on-year, with inventory levels remaining high [4] - The price of 5mm float glass was 63.2 RMB per weight case as of July 10, showing a slight increase [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Urban Work Conference highlighted the achievements and challenges of urban development in China, emphasizing the need for a people-centered approach in city planning and governance [1][30]. Urban Development Achievements - Over the past decade, Chinese cities, exemplified by Changsha, have undergone significant transformations, achieving remarkable progress in urban development [2]. - Changsha has seen a net population inflow of over 3 million, with a permanent population reaching 10.6165 million, supported by a modern industrial system focused on advanced manufacturing [3][4]. - The urbanization rate in Changsha has reached 83.99%, indicating a trend towards intensive growth [6]. Urban Planning and Governance - Changsha's first comprehensive land spatial planning (2021-2035) was approved, emphasizing strategic guidance and sustainable development [5]. - The city has implemented a compact urban renewal strategy, focusing on efficient space utilization and avoiding large-scale demolitions [7]. - Changsha has transformed 2,296 old urban communities, benefiting over 130,000 households, and plans to invest 8.705 billion yuan in 70 urban renewal demonstration projects over the next three years [10]. Environmental Quality - Changsha has maintained an air quality good rate of 83.1% in 2024, with over 300 days of good air quality annually, supporting high-quality urban development [11]. Transportation Infrastructure - Changsha's Huanghua International Airport surpassed 30 million passengers in 2023, with a 120% increase in international travelers [15]. - The city has developed a diverse public transportation system, including intercity railways and metro lines, enhancing connectivity and accessibility [16]. Urban Management Innovations - The city has adopted advanced technologies like big data and AI to improve urban management and service delivery [21][22]. - Changsha has focused on enhancing public safety and urban infrastructure, including street lighting and park accessibility, to improve residents' quality of life [20]. Cultural and Social Development - Changsha has been recognized as a "National Civilized City" and a "City with the Most Happiness," reflecting its commitment to improving residents' well-being [24]. - The city has developed a comprehensive elderly care service network, covering 91.5% of communities, and is expanding educational resources to meet growing demands [28][29].

Group 1: Urbanization Transition - China's urbanization is shifting from rapid growth to high-quality development, focusing on quality and efficiency rather than speed and scale[2] - The central urban work conference emphasizes a transition from large-scale expansion to improving existing urban quality and efficiency[5] - The focus is on "urban renewal" and "connotative development" rather than large-scale demolition and monetary compensation[3] Group 2: Policy and Implementation - The new urbanization strategy includes six dimensions: innovation, livability, beauty, resilience, civilization, and intelligence[2] - The conference outlines seven key tasks aimed at achieving "intensive and efficient" urban development, emphasizing resource allocation to valuable nodes and industrial chains[7] - The planned pilot for urban village renovations is set at 1 million units, significantly lower than the previous peak of 6 million units per year from 2015 to 2018, indicating a shift in scale and focus[12] Group 3: Financial and Economic Implications - The financing approach for urban renewal will prioritize project cash flow balance and control of hidden debts, contrasting with previous expansive monetary policies[3] - The historical context shows that the previous round of urban renewal led to significant increases in housing prices and local government debt, which the current policy aims to avoid[10] - The emphasis on "quality improvement" suggests that large-scale stimulus policies similar to those from 2015 to 2018 are unlikely to be replicated in the current economic environment[12]

谁是中国"第Z城"？ 第Z城，是被2.8亿名中国Z世代热吻的城市，它们是年轻的城，是年轻人的城，是充满年轻力、"青和力"和年轻态的城。 中国城市有两种味道，一种散发着成熟气息，另一种充盈着荷尔蒙。第Z城就是荷尔蒙之城，它们处在青春期的不眠与亢奋之中，别的城市每天只能醒来 8小时或12小时，它们却足足拥有25小时的活力。 第Z城是流动的，是温暖的，是丰富的，是包容的，是立体的，是柔软的，是松弛的，是好耍的，是"爹味"不重、班味不浓的。Z世代就是第Z城的多巴胺 和内啡肽。 打工人有一个"35岁魔咒"，城市何尝不是呢？就连中国最年轻的城市深圳，人均年龄也到了32.5岁。 2021年，第一财经根据第七次全国人口普查的数据研究35座重点城市，结果发现南通、重庆、大连、上海、沈阳、天津、哈尔滨、无锡、青岛、长春和济 南等11个城市已经进入深度老龄化，65岁及以上人口占比超过14%。最年轻的城市则是深圳、东莞、厦门、佛山、广州、郑州、泉州、贵阳，65岁及以上 人口占比低于10%。除郑州外，老龄化程度低的城市均来自长江以南地区。 城市是否年轻，跟人口出生率有关，跟年轻人口流入率也有很大关系。经济学家任泽平认为，人口流入可以给 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-07-16 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3114 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 24 元/吨（-0.76%）。当日注册仓单 96689 吨, 环比增加 8179 吨。主力合约持仓量为 215.385 万手，环比增加 31509 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3180 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3200 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3259 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 17 元/吨（-0.51%）。 当日注册仓单 64587 吨, 环比持平。主 力合约持仓量为 156.6776 万手，环比减少 1 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月16日 中央城市工作会议快评 城市发展迈入新阶段 经济研究·宏观解读 | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | | 联系人： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | | 事项： 解读： 城市工作会议由来已久，本次是第五次。第一次是 1962 年在北戴河举行的第一次全国城市工作会议，主 要讨论城市基本定位与问题，背景是大规模工业化带来的城市人口迅速扩张带来生活等用品供给不足，会 议的主要指示是集中力量组织生产。 表1：历次城市工作会议梳理 | 年份 | 会议 | 简介 | 背景 | 主要内容 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 《关于当前城市工作若干问题的指示》：已经 ...

"县城婆罗门"这个词很火，但其实很多像我这样的县城吠舍、首陀罗、达利特青年，即使在县城生活了 很多年，也没见过传说中的县城婆罗门。所以网上有人喜欢乱发县城婆罗门帽子，导致县城婆罗门的通 货膨胀。 如果你想见到传说中的县城婆罗门，我有一个小窍门，能让你迅速见到一整车县城婆罗门：你挑一个学 生在上学、打工人在打工的时间段，在县里报一个比较贵的旅游团。然后你会发现，车里卧虎藏龙。毕 竟这个时间段能出来旅游的，不是不用上班的，就是灵活就业的。但灵活就业人员能不被家里赶出来就 不错了，旅游也往往是穷游，所以前者居多。 根据我这半个月与县城婆罗门同游的经历，我观察出了该群体如下几个特点：第一是精力极其旺盛。之 前我报的都是购物团，其中存在大量的无效时间，我觉得有点亏，这次就报了个没有购物的纯玩团，报 完之后就后悔了。 购物团里可以在无效时间里摸鱼休息一下，购物时间被删减之后，这半个月变成了军训式旅游，我这两 天没更新就是因为在床上躺平来回血，今天晚上和兄弟出去逛了逛，键政都只能键不动脑子的政，复杂 点的话题我不想接。但这一车大爷大妈是真的生龙活虎，年龄最大的叫大爷大妈不合适，准确来说是我 的爷爷奶奶辈。他们在最后五天才展 ...

银河策略 · 点评报告 中央城市工作会议利好 A 股市场哪些板块? -2025 年中央城市工作会议内容解读 核心观点: 2025 年 07 月 15 日 分析师 杨超 ☎：010-8092-7696 極: yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码: S0130522030004 周美丽 网: zhoumeili_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525070002 王雪莹 网: wangxueying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S01305250600003 相关研究 2025-06-27, 2025 年大类资产中期投资展望:驭变 谋势 2025-06-22, 2025 年港股中期投资展望: 时移世易, 见机而作 2025-06-21, 2025 年 A 股中期投资展望: 筑基行稳, 重塑鼎新 2025-06-10,稳定币概念股投资展望 2025-05-29，上市公司并购重组迎来哪些新变化? 2025-05-07,关键时间节点的发布会:一揽子金融政 策稳市场稳预期 2025-04-25,4月中央政治局会议解读: ...

四是创建区域性科技创新中心。重点实施打造科技创新平台体系、强化关键核心技术攻关、优化科 技自主创新生态、加强国际科技交流合作等4个专项行动，提升服务国家高水平科技自立自强和辐射东 北亚科技创新能力，建成具有国际影响力的科技创新中心。到2035年，建成在东北亚地区占据重要地 位、具有国际影响力的区域性科技创新中心。 五是建设区域性文化中心。重点实施提升国家历史文化名城影响力、打造文体旅深度融合新典范、 营造多元包容的国际人文环境、打造一流营商环境等4个专项行动，增强城市吸引力、创造力，着力提 升区域文化中心国际美誉度。到2035年，城市吸引力、创造力、竞争力显著增强，区域性文化中心国际 美誉度大幅提升。 二是建设国家先进制造中心。重点实施推进制造业转型升级、打造世界级产业集群、培育壮大新产 业新赛道、提升产业链供应链韧性等4个专项行动，形成一批具有东北亚国际竞争力的产业集群，全面 建成完整、先进、安全的现代制造业体系。到2035年，形成一批具有国际竞争力的产业集群，全面建成 完整、先进、安全的现代制造业体系。 三是打造东北现代服务业中心。重点实施建设区域性金融中心、建设国际消费中心城市、提升优质 国际化公共服务 ...

值得注意的是，单元详规报送审批前，组织编制机关应当依法将草案予以公示，并采取论证会、听 证会或者其他方式征求专家和公众意见，公示时间不得少于三十日。街坊详规报送审批前，各组织编制 机关应当对街坊详规草案进行审查，符合单元详规确定的用地功能、容积率、建筑高度、建筑密度、绿 地率、基础设施和公共服务设施配套等内容的，应当依法将街坊详规草案予以公示，并采取论证会、听 证会或者其他方式征求专家和公众意见，公示时间不得少于三十日。同时要求，除依法不予公开的外， 详细规划经批准后二十日内，需通过政府网站或规划展览馆等途径向社会公布，接受监督。 针对详细规划调整，《规定》明确，经依法批准的详细规划不得擅自调整，确须调整的，分为重大 修改、局部调整和技术修正，并分别规定了相应的情形和程序。调整后的规划方案须按规定程序报批并 公示，同时纳入国土空间规划"一张图"实施监督信息系统。 给城市空间发展装上"导航系统"，让每一寸土地的规划都有章可循。市政府近日印发《郑州市详细 规划管理规定》，进一步规范郑州市详细规划的编制、审批和管理，提高规划管理效率，保障国土空间 规划有效实施，为城市空间治理效能提升提供制度支撑。 在规划体系构建上 ...