碳酸锂：弱势震荡，关注矿端成交情况 | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2507合约（收盘价） | 60,860 | -320 | -2,360 | -4,400 | -10,040 | -16,820 | | | | 2507合约（成交量） | 242,276 | 18,212 | 25,243 | 138,297 | 212,245 | 235,899 | | | | 2507合约（持仓量） | 339,673 | 3,866 | 45,447 | 83,382 | 216,831 | 315,612 | | | 盘面 | 2509合约（收盘价） | 62,100 | -4 ...

【冠通研究】 上下游博弈，盘面区间运行 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 20 日 【策略分析】 沪铜今日高开高走尾盘下行。5 月 20 日，中国央行宣布 1 年期和 5 年期 LPR 同步下 调 10 个基点，释放出明确的稳增长信号。美联储高官表态年内更倾向只降息一次周末国 际信用评级机构穆迪决定将美国主权信用评级从 Aaa 下调至 Aa1，美国经济数据及信用 评级双下滑，市场避险惰绪再起，铜价承压。供给端，截止 5 月 19 日，现货粗炼费 (TC)-43.03 美元/千吨，现货精炼费(RC)-4.30 美分/磅，冶炼厂加工费负值扩大有所放 缓，由于附产品的利润弥补，目前实质性减产尚未推进。目前对铜供应端的压力维持在 预期偏紧，实质供应尚未见明显缩减，废铜不受关税影响，将继续大量进入国内;库存 端，上期所铜库存去化转为累库，美铜依然继续大幅增加库存。需求端，下游需求边际 走弱，社库止跌回弹，终端动能减弱。截至 2025 年 3 月，电解铜表观消费 137.24 万 吨，相比上月涨跌+9.38 万吨，涨跌幅 7.34%。五月进入需求淡季阶段，预计表观消费量 减少。整体来说，市场对经济保持不确定性预期，基本面方 ...

Report Information - Report Date: May 20, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran [3] Market Performance - Futures Price: The main contract price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly. The closing price of Si2507 was 8,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.87%. The trading volume was 209,508 lots, and the open interest was 155,038 lots, with a net increase of 16,616 lots [4] - Spot Price: The spot price of industrial silicon continued to decline. The price of 553 in Sichuan and Yunnan was 8,800 yuan/ton. The price of 421 in Sichuan was 10,050 yuan/ton, 9,500 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 9,300 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia, and 9,700 yuan/ton in Xinjiang [4] Market Outlook - Supply: In the third week of May, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 69,000 tons. There was no expectation of production cuts in May, and the monthly supply was about 320,000 tons. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production pressure during the wet season [4] - Demand: There was no increase in demand in May. The monthly output of polysilicon was stable at 90,000 - 100,000 tons. The news of polysilicon production cuts was bearish for industrial silicon. Organic silicon enterprises began to cut production to support prices collectively since April. Exports were stable with no increase. The inventory of both futures and spot continued to increase [4] - Outlook: There was no expectation or sign of improvement in the supply - demand situation. The decline in spot prices continued to limit the rebound space, and the market was expected to fluctuate weakly [4] Market News - On May 19, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 66,097 lots, a net decrease of 287 lots from the previous trading day [5] - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Silicon Industry Branch reported that in the second quarter, the supply - demand fundamentals of industrial silicon had not improved. The market trading atmosphere was light, and downstream demand had not increased significantly, mainly for rigid procurement. The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon reached the lowest point of 8,205 yuan/ton since the listing of industrial silicon futures on May 9. Weak demand and low prices on the disk led to a decline in the spot price of industrial silicon [5]

尿素早报 2025-5-20 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面反弹后震荡运行。供应方面，开工率及日产持续高位，近期有新装 置投产，库存短期快速回落。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工显著回落，复合肥库存累库，三聚 氰胺开工快速提升，农业需求逐步好转。尿素国际价格强势，出口利润高但受出口政策限制，5 月15-16日尿素出口专题会议召开，出口政策落地，尿素经过五一前后大涨后价格趋于稳定。交 割品现货1890（-40），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差13，升贴水比例0.7%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存95万吨（-24.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益定期 gszqdatemark 2025 05 19 年 月 日 固定收益定期 煤炭调度回落，化工开工率回升——基本面高频数据跟踪 本期国盛基本面高频指数为 125.7 点（前值为 125.5 点），当周（5 月 12 日-5 月 16 日，以下简称当周）同比增加 4.8 点（前值为增加 4.7 点），同比增幅回升。利率债多空信号为空头，信号因子为 6.4%（前值 为 6.3%）。 工业生产高频指数为 125.3，前值为 125.2，当周同比增加 4.7 点（前值 为增加 4.6 点），同比增幅增加。 商品房销售高频指数为 45.0，前值为 45.1，当周同比下降 6.7 点（前值 为下降 6.8 点），同比降幅收窄。 基建投资高频指数为 117.4，前值为 117.2，当周同比增加 0.5 点（前值 为增加 0.0 点），同比增幅扩大。 出口高频指数为 144.6，前值为 144.7，当周同比增加 7.2 点（前值为增 加 7.6 点），同比增幅收窄。 消费高频指数为 119.4，前值为 119.4，当周同比增加 1.3 点（前值为增 加 1.2 点），同比增幅增加。 物价方面，C ...

横批：止损无条件！ 止损，永远是对的，错了也对！ 死扛，永远是错的，对了也错！ 如果没有交易原则，那么，一切技术等于零！ 周末我们全面分析了基本面和技术面，整体倾向于看涨黄金，行情分析继续参考：黄金，重磅突发！美国评级遭下调，黄金要暴涨吗？ 今天黄金小幅高开于3210一线。早盘拉高3249附近并迎来回落，亚盘我们提示看好回落再涨，最终行情下跌3207一线再度走强，行情完全在我们预期之内！ 操作上，上周五3155-52多单持有中，早盘3248-50空3220及下方出局了；晚间突破3250-55前不追涨可短空，下来依托支撑低多为主，突破3250-55顺势跟 多，目标3270--93先看，波段3315--3330上方，目标位也是阻力位，注意冲高回落！ 美股期货，符合预期，目前在向历史新高靠近，以防获利回吐，上周五已经做空，美国评级遭下调利空美股。所以，持有上周空单，接下来继续高空为主！ 标普阻力5950区域，然后6020区域和新高区域！ 美原油，55双底大涨63以上后，短线如期回落，接下来维持观点不变，关注二次上涨！支撑60关口，然后58及55区域！上方阻力依然65区域，突破则打开上 涨空间！ 上述个人观点，仅供参 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the bond market has shifted from "bullish but not buying" to a stage where some bulls are "wavering." The short - term trading themes are broad - based monetary policy and the fundamentals. The 10 - year Treasury bond is oscillating around 1.65% - 1.70%, and the bond market is likely to be range - bound in the short term. The impact of positive events on the bond market is rapid this year. The proportion of capital gain demand in the comprehensive return has been continuously increasing, so the duration should be maintained, and leverage can be appropriately increased if the funding rate declines [2]. - From the perspective of market sentiment, the bond market has changed from "bullish but not buying" to a stage where some bulls are "wavering." This week, some bulls have turned neutral, the number of institutions with bearish views has increased by one, and the sentiment index has declined [3]. - The fundamentals and broad - based monetary policy are the "battlefields" for the bulls and bears among the sellers. As of May 19, the number of fixed - income sellers with bullish views has decreased to 10, the number of those with bearish views has increased to 3, and the number of those with neutral views has risen to 17 [3]. - Among the buyers, those with neutral views also account for more than half, and the proportion of institutions with bullish views has decreased. The overall view of fixed - income buyers is neutral - bullish. Currently, there are 10 bullish, 16 neutral, and 3 bearish institutions [3]. - In the Treasury bond futures market, the positive arbitrage space for the TS contract has decreased, and it may still be in a premium state. One can consider participating in the game of the TS contract rising [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Seller and Buyer Markets 1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The seller sentiment index has decreased compared to last week. The weighted index this week is 0.18 (neutral - bullish, down 0.10 from last week), and the unweighted index is 0.28 (down 0.14 from last week). Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - bullish view, with 10 bullish, 17 neutral, and 3 bearish. 33% of institutions are bullish, with keywords such as the long - term trend of Sino - US decoupling despite tariff fluctuations, a possible LPR cut this week, and the expected continuation of monetary easing; 57% are neutral, with keywords such as high macro - environment uncertainty, waiting for a new market trigger after the double - cut and tariff easing, and the bond market may have a narrow - range oscillation; 10% are bearish, with keywords such as the exhaustion of the double - cut benefits, the lack of support for the bond market reflected by the non - rising funding rate, and the central bank may take measures to maintain the bank's net interest margin and push up the long - term bond yield after the tariff cut [13]. 1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The buyer sentiment index has decreased compared to last week. This week's sentiment index is 0.18 (neutral - bullish, down 0.22 from last week). Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - bullish view, with 10 bullish, 16 neutral, and 3 bearish. 35% of institutions are bullish, with keywords such as continuous loosening of the funding side, the economy still needing policy support, and the reduction of funding costs; 55% are neutral, with keywords such as fluctuations in Sino - US economic and trade expectations, frequent policy disturbances, unclear fundamental expectations, differentiated interest - rate trends, limited adjustment space but repeated directions; 10% are bearish, with keywords such as the marginal weakening of easing expectations, the enhanced expectation of economic fundamental repair, frequent funding disturbances, and increased long - end supply pressure [14]. 1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot topics include policies to promote science - and - technology innovation bonds and implicit debt accountability. Multiple departments have introduced policies to promote the construction of science - and - technology innovation bonds, and it is expected that future issuance increments will be for financial institutions and private enterprises, covering more science - and - technology innovation fields. The Ministry of Finance has emphasized local government implicit debt governance again, and the issuance supervision of urban investment bonds has become stricter, with risks being relatively controllable in the short term [18]. 1.4 Convertible Bonds - This week, institutions generally hold a neutral - bullish view, with 2 bullish and 6 neutral. 25% of institutions are bullish, with keywords such as the positive impact of the double - cut and the end of the earnings disclosure period, the increased risk appetite in the convertible bond market, and the strong equity market becoming an important support for convertible bonds; 75% are neutral, with keywords such as the current high valuation of convertible bonds, low cost - effectiveness, a possible range - bound oscillation pattern, and the need for incremental funds or overall underlying stock repair for a stronger market [20]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 2.1 Futures Trading - In terms of futures prices, except for the increase in the TS contract price, the prices of other futures contracts have decreased. As of May 16, the prices of the Treasury TS/TF/T/TL contracts are 102.38 yuan, 105.72 yuan, 108.48 yuan, and 118.91 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.04 yuan, - 0.38 yuan, - 0.58 yuan, and - 1.46 yuan compared to last Friday. - In terms of Treasury bond futures open interest, except for the increase in the TS contract open interest, the open interest of other futures contracts has decreased. As of May 16, the open interest of the TS/TF/T/TL futures contracts is 84,000 lots, 79,000 lots, 100,000 lots, and 50,000 lots respectively, with changes of +702 lots, - 64,061 lots, - 76,980 lots, and - 31,940 lots compared to last Friday. - The trading volume of Treasury bond futures has increased across the board. As of May 16, from a 5 - day moving average perspective, the trading volumes of the TS/TF/T/TL futures contracts are 132.9 billion yuan, 98.5 billion yuan, 131.1 billion yuan, and 155.6 billion yuan respectively, with increases of 40.2 billion yuan, 25.9 billion yuan, 44.7 billion yuan, and 39.9 billion yuan compared to last Friday. - The trading volume - to - open - interest ratio of Treasury bond futures has increased across the board. As of May 16, from a 5 - day moving average perspective, the trading volume - to - open - interest ratios of the TS/TF/T/TL futures contracts are 1.01, 0.98, 1.03, and 2.58 respectively, with increases of 0.49, 0.49, 0.56, and 1.33 compared to last Friday [24][25]. 2.2 Spot Bond Trading - The turnover rate of 30 - year Treasury bonds has decreased. On May 16, the turnover rate was 2.32%, down 0.10 percentage points from last week and 0.41 percentage points from Monday, with a weekly average turnover rate of 3.33%. The turnover rate of interest - rate bonds has decreased. On May 16, the turnover rate was 0.89%, down 0.05 percentage points from last week and 0.22 percentage points from Monday. The turnover rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds has increased. On May 16, the turnover rate was 5.81%, up 0.17 percentage points from last week but down 1.54 percentage points from Monday [35][36]. 2.3 Basis Trading - In terms of basis trends in the past week, the basis of the TF main contract has narrowed, while the basis of other main contracts has widened. As of May 16, the basis (CTD) of the TS/TF/T/TL main contracts is - 0.07 yuan, +0.05 yuan, +0.11 yuan, and +0.17 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.03 yuan, +0.10 yuan, +0.17 yuan, and +0.05 yuan compared to last Friday. - In terms of net basis, the net basis of the TS main contract has widened, while the net basis of other main contracts has narrowed. As of May 16, the net basis (CTD) of the TS/TF/T/TL main contracts is - 0.05 yuan, +0.03 yuan, +0.02 yuan, and +0.03 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.06 yuan, +0.12 yuan, +0.08 yuan, and +0.09 yuan compared to last Friday. - In terms of IRR, the IRR of the TS contract has increased, while the IRR of other main contracts has decreased. As of May 16, the IRR (CTD) of the TS/TF/T/TL main contracts is 1.79%, 1.32%, 1.46%, and 1.39% respectively, with changes of +0.35%, - 1.02%, - 0.66%, and - 0.56% compared to last Friday. The TS main contract's basis is negative this week, and the weekly average IRR is 1.65%, at a relatively high level. Since the funding side is generally in a stage of loosening this week, with the weekly average DR007 at 1.54%, one can pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS contract [41][44][45]. 2.4 Inter - delivery Spread and Inter - product Spread - In terms of inter - delivery spread, the spread of the T contract has widened, while the spreads of other main futures contracts have narrowed. As of May 16, the near - month minus far - month spreads of the TS/TF/T/TL contracts are - 0.11 yuan, - 0.20 yuan, - 0.17 yuan, and - 0.34 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.09 yuan, +0.14 yuan, - 0.00 yuan, and +0.19 yuan compared to last Friday. - In terms of inter - product spread, the spreads of the 2*TS - TF and 4*TS - T contracts have widened, while the spreads of other main futures contracts have narrowed. As of May 16, the values of 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 4*TS - T, and 3*T - TL are 99.04 yuan, 102.93 yuan, 301.01 yuan, and 206.50 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.43 yuan, - 0.25 yuan, +0.62 yuan, and - 0.29 yuan compared to last Friday. Currently, the downward space for long - term interest rates is limited. If the central bank takes measures to ease liquidity, there may be downward opportunities for the medium - and short - term. There is considerable room for gaming in short - term Treasury bond futures, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the strategy of going long on the short - end and short on the long - end to steepen the yield curve [51][52].

| | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | ITC 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | SUL | | | | | | | | 农产品研究中心 | 国贸期货研究院 | 杨璐琳 | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 | | | 2025/5/19 | | | | | | | | 纸浆价格数据 | | | | | | | | 2025年5月16日 | HMM | 周环比 | | | 2025年5月16日 | HMA | 周环比 | | | SP2601 | 5282 | -0. 64% | 2. 40% | | 针叶浆银星 | 6300 | 0. 00% | 1.61% | | 期货价格 | SP2507 | 5356 | -0. 56% | 3.72% | 现货价 | 针织我针 | 5450 | 0. 00% | 4. 81% | | | SP2509 | 5280 | -0. 71% | 3.57% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting perspectives between technical bearishness and fundamental recovery in the palm oil market, questioning whether the recent price increase is a "false breakout" or a "true reversal" [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook for palm oil prices, indicating potential downward pressure in the near term [1] - Conversely, fundamental factors are showing signs of recovery, which could support higher prices moving forward [1] Group 2: Price Movement - Palm oil has recently experienced a price increase, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [1] - The article highlights the importance of distinguishing between temporary price movements and long-term market trends [1]

有色金属日报 2025-5-19 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 上周铜价冲高回落，伦铜微涨 0.01%至 9440 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 77670 元/吨。产业层面， 上周三大交易所库存环比增加 2.4 万吨，其中上期所库存增加 2.7 至 10.8 万吨，LME 库存减少 1.2 至 17.9 万吨，COMEX 库存增加 1.0 至 15.4 万吨。上海保税区库存 ...