盈利预测与估值 我们下调2025/2026/2027 年百度非GAAP 净利润预测17.2/16.1/14.8%至209/240/263 亿元，主因较高利润 率的广告收入增速恢复仍需时间。基于SOTP 模型的美股目标价调整至91.5 美元（前值：102.2 美 元），港股目标价调整至89.9 港元（前值：99.5 港元），新目标价对应10.8/9.4/8.7 倍2025/2026/2027E 非GAAP PE。 风险提示：广告及云计算需求复苏不及预期，大模型商业化进度慢于预期。 我们预计百度持续推进的搜索产品AI 改造或将在2025 年内持续对百度核心的广告收入增长带来一定压 力。伴随AI 转型实践逐步迈入深水区，用户侧数据亦逐步出现边际改善趋势（MAU 同比增速温和提 升），建议持续关注改造进展及用户反馈。与此同时，近期公司自动驾驶业务在海外市场的积极入局或 为其打开可观的中长期成长空间，建议持续关注公司与海外平台业务合作进展及商业化变现节奏。维 持"买入"评级。 百度核心2Q25 前瞻：预计智能云继续兑现较快增长我们预计百度核心2Q25 广告收入同降16%至161 亿 元（1Q25：-6.1%yoy），快 ...

"有人问我：数字化转型花了多少钱？我说：是数字化转型让我活下去！"7月17日，在广东电信赋能金属加工行业数字化转型会议（下称"活动"）上，广东 创兴精密制造股份有限公司总经理高楚慧"现身说法"。 此举是一座制造业大市推动传统产业转型升级的最新举措。2021年，佛山市率先出台"智改数转"25条政策，通过提升资金撬动能力、创新金融支持工具、强 化公共服务支撑等方式，引导大批企业应用数字化、智能化工具实现转型升级。 今年，乘着入选国家级中小企业数字化转型试点城市名单的东风，佛山"智改数转"力度再加码。活动上，佛山市工业和信息化局介绍了佛山市中小企业数字 化转型专项补贴等新政策；相关服务商也在行动，佛山电信总经理林朝阳就表示，中国电信将以"云改数转智惠"战略为引领，打造云工厂平台与行业大模 型，推动产业链"链式改造"，助力中小企业破解转型难题。 广东省也将加强对佛山"智改数转"的支持。活动上，广东省工业和信息化厅工业互联网处调研员高新国表示，工业互联网是推动行业转型的核心引擎，广东 将持续加大政策支持力度，提升全产业链效率。 采写/摄影：南方+记者 王谦 【作者】 王谦 【来源】 南方报业传媒集团南方+客户端 活动现 ...

【深圳商报讯】（首席记者王海荣）7月17日，深圳市科技创新局、深圳市财政局对外发布了《深圳市 中央引导地方科技发展资金管理办法》（以下简称《管理办法》）。 此外，科技部门可以根据项目实施的需要，将中央引导资金委托所属事业单位开展项目全周期管理的具 体工作和资金使用监管，配合开展审计、检查和调查及绩效评价等。 《管理办法》在规范使用资金方面，实施"负面清单"管理。 （文章来源：深圳商报） 据介绍，在制定《管理办法》过程中，深圳与国家最新政策同步，调整了支持方式和方向，扩大了经费 的使用范围，丰富了项目的资助方式。与此同时，中央引导地方科技发展资金（以下简称"中央引导资 金"）项目的实施，将与深圳市科技计划项目相关管理规定有效对接，做到项目的同步启动、同步储 备、同步管理。 本次印发的《管理办法》包括总则、管理职责和分工、支持方向和方式、项目组织和实施、资金使用和 管理、预算绩效和监督、附则等七章33条。 中央引导资金是指中央财政用于支持和引导深圳市落实国家创新驱动发展战略和科技改革发展政策、优 化区域科技创新环境、提升区域科技创新能力、推动区域协调发展的共同财政事权转移支付资金。深圳 市科技行政主管部门是中央引 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Company reported net sales of $1,179,400,000, unchanged from last year, with an organic sales decline of $8,600,000 offset by favorable foreign currency translation [39][40] - Operating income for the quarter was $259,100,000, down 7.6% from last year, with an operating margin of 22%, a decrease of 180 basis points compared to last year [8][39] - Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $4.72, down $0.35 from last year, impacted by higher pension amortization costs and a legal payment benefit included in last year's figures [9][43][44] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Commercial and Industrial (C and I) group reported sales of $347,800,000, reflecting a 7.6% organic sales decline, with operating income of $46,900,000 and an operating margin of 13.5%, down from 16.7% last year [45][46] - The Tools group saw organic sales increase of 1.6% to $491,000,000, with operating income of $116,700,000 and an operating margin of 23.8%, unchanged from last year [21][48] - The Repair Systems and Information (RS and I) group reported sales of $468,600,000, a 2.3% organic increase, with operating income of $119,800,000 and an operating margin of 25.6%, up 60 basis points from last year [33][49] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The automotive repair environment remains favorable, with increased miles driven, average vehicle age, and household spending on repairs [9][10] - The C and I segment faced challenges early in the quarter but showed signs of recovery as the quarter progressed, particularly in aviation and military sectors [12][76] - The RS and I group experienced strong growth in diagnostics and information, with double-digit improvements in OEM businesses [33][49] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Company emphasizes resilience and balance in navigating a turbulent environment, focusing on maintaining product and brand advantages [7][39] - The strategy includes investing in product innovation and adapting to market needs, particularly in response to technician preferences for quicker payback items [22][30] - The company aims to leverage its strengths in manufacturing locally and maintaining a broad facility structure to mitigate tariff impacts [61] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate challenges and capitalize on opportunities, highlighting the importance of product innovation and customer connection [62] - The outlook for the remainder of 2025 includes expectations for stable operating costs and continued investment in brand and product development [56] - Management noted that while the current environment is challenging, there are signs of stabilization and potential for growth as customer confidence returns [72][74] Other Important Information - The company reported a consolidated gross margin of 50.5%, slightly down from 50.6% last year, impacted by unfavorable foreign currency effects [40] - Operating expenses as a percentage of net sales rose to 28.5%, primarily due to increased personnel costs and ongoing brand investments [40] - The company plans to continue its share repurchase program, with $357,900,000 remaining under authorization [54] Q&A Session Summary Question: What were the key shifts in the Tools Group from Q1 to Q2? - Management noted that technicians experienced increased uncertainty in Q1, which stabilized in Q2, allowing for a successful pivot towards lower-end big ticket items [64][66][68] Question: What is the outlook for credit origination demand? - Management indicated that while originations were down 4.9%, there is potential for improvement as customer confidence stabilizes [70][72] Question: Can you elaborate on the RS and I group's growth and the new Triton platform? - Management highlighted strong growth in RS and I, with the new Triton platform offering wireless capabilities and improved diagnostic features, priced around $4,500 [85][88]

英国首相斯塔默：我们当选的目标是让这个国家变得更好，这意味着我们必须推动变革，实现改革。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The home furnishing industry is facing significant pressure, with many companies reporting a decline in net profits or even losses due to the ongoing adjustment in the real estate market and weak consumer demand [1][5][6]. Group 1: Performance Overview - Several companies, including Gongyuan Co., Luyang Energy, and Qinglong Pipe Industry, reported a substantial decline in net profits, with some experiencing a drop of nearly 70% [4]. - Jiangshan Oupai's net profit fell by 89.04% to 91.90%, attributed to reduced revenue and changes in revenue structure [4]. - Among the companies that released performance forecasts, 11 reported net losses, with Jianlang Hardware and Mona Lisa experiencing significant declines [5]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The real estate market's ongoing adjustment is a key factor affecting the home furnishing industry, with new housing sales area down by 3.5% and sales amount down by 5.5% in the first half of the year [6]. - Consumer demand for home furnishing products has become more rational, with increased sensitivity to price and heightened expectations for quality and environmental performance [6]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The home furnishing industry is characterized by intense competition, with many small brands leading to homogenized products and price wars that compress profit margins [7]. - Companies are urged to shift from traditional sales models to more innovative approaches, focusing on solutions rather than just products [7]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - Companies are exploring various strategies to navigate the industry downturn, including international expansion and product upgrades [8]. - Some firms, like Kuka Home, are establishing production bases overseas to tap into new markets, while others are focusing on the aging population's needs within the domestic market [9][10]. - The aging population in China is projected to exceed 30% by 2035, prompting a shift towards age-friendly home solutions [9][10].

白宫预算局局长沃特：（关于美联储改革的评论）不一致之处具有误导性。 ...

白宫预算局局长沃特：对美联储大楼改造的内部审查不够充分。 ...

宏 观 研 究 "反内卷"系列 2025 年 07 月 17 日 "反内卷"：市场可能误解了什么？ ——"反内卷"系列专题之四 市场对"反内卷"重视度明显上升，但对"内卷"的理解却有很大分歧；多数观点以供给侧改革的 思维理解，但差之毫厘、谬以千里；除产量调控与自律约谈外，"反内卷"也有很多"隐藏手段"。 ⚫ 误解"内卷内涵"："反内卷"="反过剩"？ 需求成因不同："过剩"是需求下滑、供给被动过剩，"内卷"是需求强劲领域供给主动增加。供 给侧改革前，地产基建需求走弱，高耗能行业产能被动过剩；当下外需表现更强，但外需行业固定 资产周转率下滑至历史最低水平（2.6 以下），内需行业固定资产周转率虽在下行，但仍处于历史中 位数，外需行业比内需行业更卷；外卖等服务业（非贸易部门）不存在产能过剩问题、但也在内卷。 物价表现不同："过剩"是企业因需求下滑跟随式降价，"内卷"是企业因需求强劲"降价无序竞 争"。供给侧改革前，地产基建需求走弱，煤炭钢铁等 PPI 随之明显回落，相关行业制造业投资也 下行；当下内卷领域，盈利偏弱而制造业投资大幅扩张，外需领域投资增速更高（13%）。出口商 品价格（同比-5%以下）甚至低于相同商 ...

数据显示，2024年中国网络文学IP改编量为83250部（种），同比增长14.55%。报告指出，网络文学的IP改编在经历短期爆发式增长后，正逐步转 向理性化发展阶段。随着内容精细化运营与版权管理规范化进程的持续深入，行业发展重心更趋聚焦优质内容的深度开发。 7月17日，第八届中国"网络文学+"大会现场。新华社记者杨淑君摄 第八届中国"网络文学+"大会当日开幕，根据报告，截至2024年底，中国网络文学作品累计规模达4210万部，较2023年增长超420万部；中国网络 文学用户规模达6.38亿人，同比增长16%。 中国音像与数字出版协会第一副理事长张毅君介绍，2024年中国网络文学发展呈现出三个主要特征：一是网络文学成为具有代表性的新大众文 艺；二是新业态模式促进行业多元价值体系发展；三是网络文学与微短剧融合开辟行业转型新路径。 中国音像与数字出版协会7月17日在北京发布《2024年度中国网络文学发展报告》显示，2024年中国网络文学市场营收规模达495.50亿元，同比增 长29.37%，网络文学市场展现出强大的韧性和广阔的市场前景。 当下，网络文学以强大的生命力和亲和力成为中华文化传播的重要载体。报告显示，20 ...