午夜时分，济南街头的大排档烟火升腾，在油腻的塑料桌椅间，一位身着简约T恤的年轻人举起硕大的 扎啤杯，与满座好友碰撞出清脆的声响。 当粉丝举杯上前，他毫不犹豫地起身碰杯，扎啤泡沫顺着杯沿流淌，这种毫无架子的亲民姿态，与印象 中豪门公子的刻板形象形成戏剧性反差。 餐桌上堆叠的竹签见证着豪门的市井胃口：羊肉串外层焦香内里鲜嫩，麻辣小龙虾的红油浸透一次性手 套，拍黄瓜的蒜香混合着炭火气息。 当隔壁桌的食客迟疑着举起手机拍照时，镜头捕捉到的竟是赌王之子何猷君——这位身家千亿的豪门继 承人，此刻正撕扯着烤串，任由油渍沾染指尖。 三辆轿车悄然停靠在夜市边缘，四名保镖隐入人群，何猷君选择坐在最外侧的位置，褪去所有身份标 签。 何猷君咀嚼时鼓动的腮帮，与邻桌光膀大汉的神态别无二致。 大排档老板珍藏的消费单上，七人878元的数字赫然在目——不足豪门宴席一道菜的零头，却成为最具 说服力的阶层穿越证明。 这不是何猷君首次现身市井，从上海弄堂馄饨摊到广州肠粉店，精英阶层正在集体上演"向下流动"的消 费行为艺术。 当米其林餐厅成为商务标配，烟火缭绕的街头食肆反而成为身份解压的秘径。 心理学研究显示，高压力群体通过融入市井场景，能有效获得 ...

与传统黄金投资渠道相比，国际主流交易市场提供的XAU/USD（黄金兑美元）产品呈现三大特性： 对于希望配置黄金资产的普通投资者，需重点关注三大核心要素： 1. 时间连续性（24小时跨市场交易） 2. 纽约COMEX、伦敦LBMA、上海黄金交易所三大市场接力开市，使投资者可实时响应突发事件。2022年俄乌冲突爆发当晚，国际金价在亚市时段瞬 时波动达3.5%，灵活的交易机制让亚太投资者成功捕捉到窗口机会。 3. 双向风险对冲 4. Bloomberg数据显示，美元指数与黄金价格相关系数长期维持在-0.8以上。在美联储加息周期中，具备多空双向操作能力的交易工具，成为对冲本币贬 值的有效手段。 5. 高流动性溢价 6. 国际清算银行（BIS）统计显示，外汇市场日均交易量超7.5万亿美元，其中贵金属相关货币对占12.7%。这种深度流动性确保在2020年3月全球资产抛 售潮中，黄金报价仍维持正常点差，而部分黄金ETF曾出现10%以上溢价。 三、个人参与路径的风险管控要点 据世界黄金协会2025年报告显示，全球央行连续16个季度净购金，年度增储量达1297吨，刷新历史纪录创1971年美元与黄金脱钩以来最高纪录。这种机构 级 ...

Group 1 - The main board ST stocks' price fluctuation limit has been increased from 5% to 10%, affecting 129 companies in the main board ST sector [1] - This adjustment aims to unify the price fluctuation limits of risk warning stocks with other stocks, enhancing market order and protecting the rights of small and medium investors [1] - The change is expected to reduce trading obstacles and promote capital market reforms, potentially leading to a fairer environment across different market segments [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, the number of newly established public funds reached 661, with a total issuance scale of 526.1 billion, indicating a recovery in market confidence [2] - The increase in equity fund issuance is expected to continue in the second half of the year, becoming a focus for fund companies [2] - This trend reflects an improvement in market risk appetite, positively impacting market sentiment and liquidity [2] Group 3 - The number of public fund managers reached a record high of 4,041 in the first half of the year, marking a 19% increase from the beginning of the year [3] - The industry is experiencing accelerated talent turnover, with a record number of fund managers leaving and new ones being hired, which may affect investor perceptions of research capabilities [3] - The increase in fund managers may lead to a more diverse market style and a subtle adjustment in the ecosystem of institutional investors [3] Group 4 - Dong Fang has been appointed as the president of Zhuhai Wealth Management, bringing extensive asset management and wealth management experience from the China Merchants Group [4] - This leadership change reflects internal resource integration within the China Merchants Group and may impact the competitive landscape of the bank wealth management sector [4] - The appointment signifies ongoing talent mobility and strategic adjustments within the financial industry, which could influence market sentiment and industry expectations [4]

美国流动性宽松预期强化，看多基本金属 20250627 摘要 美国 7 月面临多重关键事件：国会休会前夕的投票、对欧盟关税豁免到 期以及美联储潜在降息决策，这些因素共同影响商品市场和下半年流动 性预期，尤其是 7 月 4 日经济刺激法案落地与否至关重要。 美联储官员释放降息信号，主席鲍威尔暗示关税积极变化是降息条件， 市场传闻中美贸易缓和，若 7 月经济刺激落地，将形成宽财政和宽流动 性双重支持，利好基本金属需求和抗通胀能力。 COMEX 铜与 LME 铜价差扩大至 1,400 美元/吨，溢价率达 14.2%，主 因市场预期美国可能落地铜的 232 调查，叠加 LME 限制多单交易， COMEX 市场更为积极，推动价差走高，带动伦铜和沪铜走强。 国内铜市场远期价格疲软，远月合约从 Contango 转为 Backwardation，不利于权益投资，因股票市场偏好现货价格上涨且远 期基差扩大的走势，当前状况可能导致投资者对股票投资持谨慎态度。 宏观预期上调、流动性释放、现货低库存以及中报季临近，共同支撑基 本金属价格上行，业绩、宏观预期和短期交易行为共振，有望推动基本 金属价格上涨。 Q&A 2025 年 7 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the A-share market outlook for July 2025, highlighting the balance between low-valued blue-chip stocks and reasonably valued growth stocks, particularly in the technology sector [1][3][28]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Trend**: The A-share market is expected to remain in a fluctuating trend for both the short term and July 2025, primarily due to ongoing fundamental pressures [2][27]. - **Driving Factors**: Recent market gains are attributed to the easing of risk events, improved policy expectations, and inflows from institutional investors [4][12]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: The impact of geopolitical events, such as the Israel-Palestine ceasefire, is viewed as temporary, with ongoing uncertainties related to U.S.-China relations and tariff issues [5][6][25]. - **Economic Indicators**: May economic data shows a decline in export growth and negative profit growth for industrial enterprises, indicating potential underperformance in A-share mid-year reports [13][16]. - **Performance Expectations**: The A-share mid-year performance is anticipated to be weaker than previously expected, with significant pressure on corporate earnings [17][24]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Policy Impact**: The financial support policies for consumption have a limited overall effect on profits but provide some benefits to specific consumption sectors [8][10]. - **Seasonal Trends**: Historical data indicates that July typically exhibits a balanced performance with no clear upward or downward trend, contrary to traditional beliefs [19][20]. - **Liquidity Factors**: The liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, which could positively influence the A-share market despite potential external pressures [26][27]. - **Sector Preferences**: The preferred sectors for investment in July 2025 are expected to be growth and financial sectors, with historical trends supporting this allocation [28][29]. Recommendations for Investment - **Focus Areas**: Suggested sectors for investment include military, non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, new energy, transportation, and large financial sectors, along with technology sub-sectors that are undervalued or have seen limited price increases [35]. - **High Growth Sub-sectors**: Sub-sectors with high expected profit growth include aviation, energy metals, military electronics, and software development [34]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the A-share market outlook for July 2025.

Group 1 - The company held its fourth meeting of the seventh board of directors on June 26, 2025, with all nine directors present, ensuring compliance with relevant laws and regulations [1] - The board approved a proposal to apply for a working capital loan of 160 million yuan from Guangxi Beibu Gulf Bank to support the procurement of raw materials and operational cash flow [1][2] - The loan's interest rate, term, and guarantee method will be determined by the bank's final credit approval [2] Group 2 - The board agreed to a new guarantee limit of up to 440 million yuan for the company's subsidiaries to secure loans from financial institutions, with the guarantee being reusable [2] - The guarantee methods may include joint liability guarantees, pledges, and mortgages, and the approval is subject to the upcoming shareholders' meeting [2][3] - The company plans to hold its second extraordinary shareholders' meeting on July 15, 2025, combining on-site and online voting [3]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 看股做债，不是看债做股 核心观点 1、宏观资配研判的时候，辨析股债关系是极其重要的: 当居民存款搬家为流动性主要矛盾的时候，股债交易大的逻辑是看股做债带来 的股债跷跷板——股票表达风险偏好➡风险偏好带动居民存款搬家➡居民存 款搬家带动非银存款提升➡非银存款存在脉冲性➡央行对冲空转的警惕➡银 行间资金易紧➡债券下跌； 当央行货币宽松为流动性主要矛盾的时候，股债交易大的逻辑是看债做股带来 的股债双牛——央行大幅宽松➡银行间充裕带来非银存款提升➡无风险利率 下行+非银存款提升➡股票估值与增量资金双击。 2、虽然本轮非银流动性的增长规模接近 2014年~2015年，但与2014~2015年 货币宽松主导流动性改善显著不同，本轮流动性改善的主逻辑是居民存款搬 家。因此大的宏观交易逻辑上，我们认为本轮更倾向于看股做债的股债跷跷板 逻辑，而非看债做股的股债双牛逻辑。 3、值得注意的是，与过往流动性宽松相比，本轮居民存款搬家也存在特殊性： 第一特殊，居民存款配置难回地产，客观面临资产荒，涌动力量更强。 第二特殊，自上而下"稳股市"政策助力资本市场，一定程度上限制了股票市 场风险 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that convertible bonds with strong underlying stocks and high volatility are the most cost-effective options in the current market environment [2][17] - The market saw a significant increase in the convertible bond index, with a weekly rise of 2.08% and an average price increase of 4.54% [2][9] - The average conversion premium across different price ranges showed varied changes, indicating a shift in market sentiment and valuation [9][18] Group 2 - The report suggests that investors should avoid low-priced strategies in the convertible bond market and focus on high-volatility, strong underlying stocks for better returns [2][17] - It highlights the importance of adjusting positions based on risk tolerance, recommending a shift to lower volatility sectors for those with high withdrawal requirements [2][17] - The analysis indicates that the convertible bond market still has incremental capital inflow, benefiting from the profit-taking effect observed at the end of June [2][17]

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 29 日 央行延续呵护，资金预计平稳跨月 ——流动性与机构行为跟踪 核心观点 资金面部分，未来一周，政府债净融资规模下降，月初央行预计按惯例回笼，资金面 大概率将保持均衡运行，平稳跨月。 存单部分，未来一周，存单到期规模约 0.25 万亿，供给压力有所减小，月初资金面预 计回到均衡偏松，存单收益率或呈现震荡走势。 机构行为部分，基金、农商行、其他产品是利率债主要买盘，农商行净买入力量有明 显回升。 ❑ 流动性：央行延续呵护，资金面预计平稳跨月 1、资金面部分：（1）央行 6 月 MLF 持续超额续作，已连续 4 个月续作 MLF 投放 流动性，配合 6 月 2000 亿的买断式逆回购净投放，资金面呈现均衡偏松的态势。 6 月央行三次操作中长期投放流动性，加强和市场的政策沟通，有效缓解了存单 大量到期带来的银行负债端压力。（2）过去一周，央行持续进行幅度较大的净投 放，以呵护跨月资金面，月末资金面紧张程度有限。由于跨月资金需求旺盛，核 心资金利率边际上行，资金面呈现 "量价双升"的情形，全周来看资金面体感均 衡 ...

7 月流动性会更松吗？ 2025 年 06 月 29 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：张云杰 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525020002 经济动态跟踪 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：zhangyunjie@mszq.com ➢ 6 月流动性进入年内"最松"状态，展望 7 月，流动性有哪些关注点？ 第一，参考近年规律，7 月市场往往会迎来"自发性"宽松。近年来，经济运行 基本遵循一季度"开门红"，随后增长动能渐趋平缓的规律，财政、金融更多靠前 发力。因此在 7 月份，政府债和信贷需求很难构成流动性"冲击"。 第二，央行对于经济的判断，虽然还不具有"紧迫性"，但已开始关注下行风险。 往后看，重点关注关税扰动下的制造业景气波折。经验表明，每当制造业 PMI 连 续 3 个月（或以上）跌入收缩区间，资金面往往会转松，有时甚至会触发总量货 币政策调整。再加上近期美联储降息预期"再起"，国内货币宽松的空间随之打 开。 第三，在工具选择上，货币政策更加注重灵活性和时效度，短期内重启国债买卖 的必要性不高。7 月并非财政"大月"，此外，5 月以来央 ...