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夏春解读特朗普的经济悖论:美国再次伟大?美元资产长牛?只能二选一!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-11 08:56
结果这一枪直接打到了华尔街的要害,美股美债和美元迎来了罕见的三杀,逼得特朗普不得不马上宣布关税暂停。翻脸比翻书还快。今天我就和大家来探 讨一下,为什么特朗普让制造业回流和缩小贸易逆差这些让美国再次伟大的目标,和华尔街期待的美国股债汇的长期牛市,两者之间存在着难以调和的矛 盾。 美国再次伟大与美股美债美元 存在着不可调和的矛盾 美国政府和华尔街合力打造的 全球分工与发展的模式 威胁着特朗普 不要轻举妄动 美国再次伟大与美元资产长牛 只能二选一 欢迎点击观看 新经济学家智库 x TAIXUE x 夏春 《美国再次伟大?美元资产长牛?二选一》 >> 特朗普和华尔街 存在着难以调和的矛盾 大家好!我是夏春,在香港上善资本集团工作,也在香港的大学任教,主要分析全球宏观经济与行业变化,为客户打理全球的资产配置。 今年以来,对全球资本市场影响最深远的事就是美国总统特朗普公布了一连串让人眼花缭乱,让世界翻天覆地的政策。为了实现让美国再次伟大这个目 标,简单来说,就是让制造业回流美国,让美国的贸易逆差缩小,特朗普开出的最响一枪就是向全球,包括美国最亲密的盟友,加征高关税,对中国的关 税一度加到145%。 >> 实施高关税 华尔 ...
欧洲央行管委帕内塔:美国市场国际地位可能削弱,这或为其他地区提供机会,包括欧洲。
news flash· 2025-07-11 08:33
欧洲央行管委帕内塔:美国市场国际地位可能削弱,这或为其他地区提供机会,包括欧洲。 ...
特朗普团队无可奈何,全球超190个国家,只有3个国家与美草签协议
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-11 08:16
从4月宣布"对等关税"政策开始,特朗普就把这个贸易计划当作新任期的"重头戏",希望用经济杠杆重新塑造全球规则。他的目标很明确——谁对美国征 税,美国就加倍反击;谁不听话,就拉入"惩罚清单"。 7月7日,在白宫签署推迟关税生效令时,特朗普仍在强调"各国正在排队谈判"。但事实远比他描述的冷清得多——迄今为止,全球仅英国、越南、柬埔寨三 国与美方达成初步草签协议,其余国家集体"装聋作哑"。 这三国的共同特点,是对美出口依赖程度极高,自身议价空间极小。而对美贸易额真正有影响的主要经济体——中国、欧盟、日本、韩国、印度、加拿大、 墨西哥等——统统拒绝配合,有些甚至在筹划反制。 特朗普关税战折腾了半年,结果全球190多个国家,只有英国、越南、柬埔寨这3个国家与美国草签协议。无可奈何之下,特朗普只好宣布将"对等关税"政策 延期至8月1日。显然关税战已经打不下去了,特朗普也没想到美国优先却让先美国陷入了孤立。 不仅如此,美联储、摩根大通、前副总统彭斯、甚至金融界代表巴菲特都罕见齐声反对这项政策,称其"逆经济规律而行",将"直接损害美国消费者与制造 业"。 可以说,这份"全球贸易战"的战绩,不仅没有提升美国领导力,反而在加速特 ...
美债的“安全神话”正在瓦解
日经中文网· 2025-07-11 08:15
Core Viewpoint - The trend of central banks and institutional investors shifting from U.S. Treasury bonds to gold is strengthening, with expectations that this influx into gold will continue for decades due to increasing fiscal spending and money supply, which may devalue the dollar [1][7]. Group 1: Investment Trends - There has been a significant outflow of funds from U.S. long-term bond funds, amounting to approximately $10 billion from April to June, marking the largest outflow since the market turmoil in early 2020 [4]. - Investors are increasingly reconsidering their holdings in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, reflecting growing concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation and the potential for inflation [5][6]. - The traditional view of U.S. Treasury bonds as a stabilizing asset in investment portfolios is changing, as both stocks and bonds have shown correlated declines during recent market shocks [6]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - The head of the securities department at the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry has successfully adjusted investment strategies to include gold, viewing it as a suitable asset to hedge against risks in both stocks and bonds [3]. - A report from the OMFIF indicates that one in three central banks plans to increase their gold holdings, signaling a cautious shift away from dollar-denominated assets like U.S. Treasury bonds [6].
除了加征关税,还要涨军费!特朗普对日韩双线施压
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-11 07:37
Group 1 - The U.S. government, under President Trump, is pressuring South Korea and Japan to significantly increase their defense spending for U.S. troops stationed in their countries, with Trump suggesting a figure of $10 billion for South Korea [1][2] - South Korea's current defense spending under the 12th Special Measures Agreement is approximately 11.34 million USD for 2026, which is significantly lower than Trump's demand [2] - Japan's defense spending for U.S. troops is set at approximately 74.1 million USD for the fiscal years 2022 to 2026, with no specific demands from Trump yet, but previous dissatisfaction has been expressed [2][3] Group 2 - Both South Korea and Japan are responding to U.S. tariff threats with a mix of negotiation and emphasis on protecting their national interests, indicating a potential shift towards greater independence from U.S. influence [4] - Recent public opinion polls show a significant decline in trust towards the U.S. among Japanese citizens, with only 22% expressing trust, and a doubling of South Koreans who believe the U.S.-Korea relationship has worsened [5]
黄金维持区间震荡 市场等待下周CPI指引
news flash· 2025-07-11 06:59
Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are currently in a range-bound fluctuation as the market awaits the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report next Tuesday [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent non-farm payroll data has suppressed further increases in gold prices, as the market has re-priced hawkish expectations regarding interest rates, putting pressure on the precious metal [1] - A weak CPI report could provide a boost to gold prices, while a strong performance may trigger a new wave of selling [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Perspective - From a broader perspective, gold is expected to maintain an upward trend due to the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's easing policies, which may lead to a continued decline in real yields [1] - However, short-term hawkish re-pricing of rate cut expectations could lead to a pullback in gold prices [1]
马斯克的“快意恩仇”
21世纪经济报道· 2025-07-11 05:39
Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk's proposal to establish a new political party in the U.S. aims to liberate citizens from the existing two-party system, which he claims is leading the country to bankruptcy due to waste and corruption [1][4]. Group 1: Political Context - The U.S. election system is characterized by an indirect election process where the president is elected by an electoral college rather than by direct popular vote [1][2]. - The electoral votes are allocated based on the population of each state, with a total of 538 electoral votes, including 3 from Washington D.C. [1]. - The "winner-takes-all" principle in U.S. elections means that the candidate with the majority of votes in a state receives all of that state's electoral votes, contrasting with proportional representation systems in some European countries [2]. Group 2: Historical Stability of Two-Party System - The two-party system has been stable for nearly 200 years, with the Democratic and Republican parties dominating due to their substantial campaign resources and experience [3]. - California, a Democratic stronghold, has the highest number of electoral votes at approximately 54, while Texas, a Republican stronghold, has about 40 electoral votes [3]. Group 3: Challenges for Third Parties - Third parties in the U.S., such as the Green Party and the Libertarian Party, often participate in elections to raise awareness rather than to win, with many candidates withdrawing early to increase their visibility [4]. - The political landscape is complicated by the two parties' ability to adapt their policies to attract voters, making it uncertain whether Musk's new party can effectively challenge the status quo [4]. Group 4: Impact on Tesla - Following Musk's announcement about forming a new party, Tesla's stock price dropped nearly 7%, resulting in a market value loss of approximately $68 billion [5]. - Analysts express concern that Musk's political activities could negatively impact Tesla's stock, with some suggesting that he should distance himself from politics to protect the company's interests [5]. - Recent legislative changes reducing tax incentives for electric vehicles may further affect Tesla's sales and the broader electric vehicle market [5]. Group 5: Internal Challenges - Musk's high compensation package, which could yield up to $56 billion in stock options if performance targets are met, has drawn criticism regarding the board's oversight [6]. - Analysts recommend implementing restrictions on Musk's political activities and setting boundaries for his tenure at Tesla to mitigate potential conflicts of interest [6]. - Musk's dissatisfaction with the two-party system raises questions about the feasibility and sincerity of his intentions to establish a new political party [6].
澳元汇率触及9个月高点!8月降息可能性高于80%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-11 04:59
澳洲联邦银行(CBA)指出,这是9个月来的最高水平。 近几个月来,澳元汇率大致在一个相对狭窄的区间内波动,徘徊在64-65美分左 右。但隔夜澳元汇率走 高,接近66美分。 市场对9月降息25个基点的预期已大幅降温,从7月2日的116%降至目前的72%。 尽管短期内澳元兑美元的阻力最小路径是上行,但未来几周有几项关键事件可能导 致其大幅下跌,例 如6月美国消费者价格指数(CPI)数据,以及8月1日和8月12日 美国"贸易休战"的到期。 未来几天有一些因素可能推高美元,进而导致澳元兑美元走低。例如,下周公布的 美国CPI可能会显示 关税对商品通胀的影响更大,这将推迟市场对9月联邦基金利率 降息的预期。 据路透社最新消息,美国总统特朗普宣布从8月1日起对从加拿大进口的商品征收 35%的关税。 在触及2024年11月以来的高点后,受此消息影响,澳元汇率开始回 落,下跌0.3%,美元上涨。 澳元兑美元汇率已收复周一 的全部失地,目前交易价格接近0.66,为2024年11月以来的最高水平。 (图片来源:ABC) 澳元兑美元得到了风险偏好改善的支撑,例如股市上涨以及美国国债拍卖表现稳 健。澳元对所有主要 交叉汇率也均走高。 ...
传特朗普50%铜关税扩至半成品 美国电网、数据中心材料恐遭重击
智通财经网· 2025-07-11 04:08
Core Viewpoint - The proposal by President Trump to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper products, including semi-finished copper goods, is expected to significantly impact various economic sectors and the U.S. copper supply chain [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Proposal Details - The proposed tariff will cover copper products used in power grids, military equipment, and data centers, with semi-finished products likely included [1]. - The details of the tariff plan are not fully disclosed, and adjustments to the measures are still possible [1]. - The market had anticipated tariffs on refined copper, but the inclusion of semi-finished products (such as wire, sheet, and pipe) was uncertain until now [1]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The tariff is expected to raise production costs across multiple sectors, including electronics, automotive manufacturing, construction, and defense [1]. - In 2022, the U.S. imported 908,000 tons of refined copper, which constituted the largest import category, and these materials are processed into rods, cables, and alloy products [1]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The U.S. Copper Development Association highlighted that semi-finished copper products are critical to the military supply chain, representing 90% of U.S. semi-finished copper producers [2]. - The U.S. domestic copper production is insufficient to meet its own demand, necessitating significant imports of semi-finished copper products, estimated at 800,000 tons last year [2]. - The potential for a 50% tariff on semi-finished products raises national security concerns, as any disruption in foreign copper supply could severely impact U.S. electricity supply [2]. Group 4: Processing Sector Challenges - Imposing tariffs on semi-finished products will directly increase costs for processing companies, which rely heavily on imported raw materials [3]. - Current domestic processing capacity cannot meet the additional demand for 800,000 tons of semi-finished products, and establishing new capacity may take up to seven years [3].