汇丰银行：预计2025年布伦特原油价格为每桶68.5美元，2026年为每桶65美元，价格下行风险不断增 加。 ...

2025 年 05 月 21 日 行业日报 中性/维持 房地产 房地产 太平洋房地产日报（20250521）：天津 23.39 亿元成交两宗地 走势比较 40% (20%) (8%) 4% 16% 28% 24/3/11 24/5/22 24/8/2 24/10/13 24/12/24 25/3/6 房地产 沪深300 子行业评级 | 和运营 | | | --- | --- | | 房 地 产 开 发 房地产服务 | 无评级 无评级 | 市场行情： 2025 年 5 月 21 日，今日权益市场各版块多数上涨，上证综指和 深证成指分别上涨 0.21%和 0.44%，沪深 300 和中证 500 分别上涨 0.47%和 0.18%。申万房地产指数下跌 0.53%。 个股表现： 推荐公司及评级 相关研究报告 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250520）：杭 州土拍收金42.49亿元>>--2025-05- 20 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250519）：厦 门多家银行首套房贷利率下限上调 5bp>>--2025-05-19 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250516）：杭 州临平区崇贤新城推出首宗不限房 价地块>>--20 ...

2025 年 05 月 21 日 行业日报 中性/维持 房地产 房地产 太平洋房地产日报（20250521）：天津 23.39 亿元成交两宗地 走势比较 40% (20%) (8%) 4% 16% 28% 24/3/11 24/5/22 24/8/2 24/10/13 24/12/24 25/3/6 房地产 沪深300 子行业评级 | 和运营 | | | --- | --- | | 房 地 产 开 发 房地产服务 | 无评级 无评级 | 推荐公司及评级 相关研究报告 房地产板块个股涨幅较大的前五名为空港股份、粤宏远 A、南国 置 业 、 荣 丰 控 股 、 阳 光 股 份 ， 涨 幅 分 别 为 10.04%/10.00%/5.05%/5.03%/3.24%； 个股跌幅较大的为华夏幸福、京基智农、电子城、华丽家族、宁 波富达，跌幅分别为-10.14%/-9.83%/-6.13%/-3.24%/-2.49%。 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250520）：杭 州土拍收金42.49亿元>>--2025-05- 20 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250519）：厦 门多家银行首套房贷利率下限上调 5bp>>--2025- ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the European Central Bank's council member, Escrivá, has indicated that Spain faces downward risks in the coming quarters [1] Group 2 - The statement suggests potential economic challenges for Spain, which may impact various sectors and investment opportunities [1]

Group 1 - The Chinese bond market is currently experiencing a favorable period due to multiple policy benefits and macroeconomic conditions [1][3] - The People's Bank of China has maintained a loose monetary policy since May 2025, implementing measures such as a 50 basis points reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10 basis points interest rate cut, exceeding market expectations [3] - The issuance of special bonds by the Ministry of Finance is accelerating, requiring central bank liquidity support, which reinforces a stable yet slightly loose funding environment [3] Group 2 - Domestic inflation remains low, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) unchanged at -0.1% year-on-year in April 2025, indicating weak domestic demand [4] - The yield on 10-year government bonds has dropped to a historical low of 1.62%, while ultra-long bonds (like 30-year bonds) still have room for yield spread recovery due to liquidity premiums [4][6] - The international market shows rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has eased capital outflow pressure and attracted foreign investment into Chinese bonds [6] Group 3 - Long-term investors, such as banks and insurance institutions, are increasingly allocating funds to ultra-long bonds, matching their long-duration liabilities with the 30-year government bonds [7] - The investment structure for ultra-long bonds is expected to diversify further with the expansion of the third pillar of pensions and the easing of foreign capital access [7] - Key signals to monitor include whether domestic CPI and PMI data exceed expectations and any substantial adjustments in the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [7]

2025 年 05 月 16 日 行业日报 中性/维持 房地产 房地产 太平洋房地产日报（20250515）：杭州临平区崇贤新城推出首宗 不限房价地块 子行业评级 | 和运营 | | | --- | --- | | 房 地 产 开 发 房地产服务 | 无评级 无评级 | 推荐公司及评级 相关研究报告 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250515）：联 发集团26.05亿元竞得南京雨花台区 宅地>>--2025-05-15 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250514）：深 铁集团拟向万科提供借款>>--2025- 05-14 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250513）：杭 州 3 宗涉宅地块收金 25.73 亿元>>-- 2025-05-13 证券分析师：徐超 电话：18311057693 E-MAIL：xuchao@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190521050001 证券分析师：戴梓涵 电话：18217681683 E-MAIL：daizh@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110003 走势比较 (20%) (8%) 4% 16% 28% 40% 24/3/11 24/5/22 24/8 ...

日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正：必须警惕美国贸易政策对日本经济带来的下行风险。 ...

日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正：持续的价格上涨对消费和家庭信心造成了冲击，成为日本经济的下行风 险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The progress in US-China trade negotiations has led to a potential decline in the likelihood of a "stagflation" scenario in the US economy, resulting in a downward adjustment of market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2025 [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2025 has decreased from 75 basis points to 55 basis points, with the timing of the cut pushed from June to September [1] - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the next rate cut from July to December, reflecting changes in the financial market environment [1] Inflation and Economic Growth - The inflationary effects from tariffs remain, with inflation expectations in the market not cooling down, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to maintain a loose monetary policy [5] - The inflation rate is still above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, with non-housing market service inflation at 3.4% in March, indicating upward pressure on inflation [5] - The latest tariff policies are expected to reduce US economic growth by 1-1.5 percentage points and may push core inflation up by 1-1.5 percentage points [5] Economic Downside Risks - Despite progress in trade negotiations, the risk of a downturn in the US economy persists, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 35% probability of recession in the next 12 months [7] - The effective tariff levels in the US remain significantly higher than in previous decades, which could negatively impact economic growth [7] - The average effective tariff rate in the US is currently at 17.8%, the highest level since 1934, indicating ongoing economic risks [7] Global Economic Context - The recent rebound of the US dollar index following trade negotiation progress does not change the underlying issues related to US dollar credibility and the trend of "de-dollarization" in global asset allocation [8] - A reduction in the US current account deficit could lead to decreased demand, impacting capital inflows into US assets and potentially putting long-term pressure on the dollar [8]

日期 2025 年 5 月 13 日 行业 原油日报 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...