考虑到公司Q1 成本明显下降、且持续下降可实现性较强，我们下调公司育肥完全成本，并上调公司盈 利预测。我们预计公司2025/26/27 年归母净利润为197/183/472 亿元（较前值上调幅度分别为 39%/36%/9%），对应BVPS15.39/18.23/26.37 元。参考可比公司2025 年Wind 一致预期2.6x PB，考虑到 公司持续增出栏降成本，给予公司2025 年3.3x PB，维持目标价51.30元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：出栏量不及预期、猪价表现不及预期，突发大规模动物疫病等。 完全成本持续下降可期，2025 年有望延续高质量成长养殖业务方面，1）成本端，据公告，公司3 月育 肥完全成本已降至12.5元/公斤，且后续公司会在健康管理、种猪育种、营养研发、智能化应用等方面 持续发力，逐步提升各项生产指标，实现养殖成本的进一步下降；2）出栏端，公司目标2025 年预计出 栏商品猪7200~7800 万头（同比+10%~19%）、仔猪800~1200 万头（同比+41%~112%），2025 年有望 延续高质量成长。屠宰业务方面，公司屠宰产能利用率提升有望持续、经营或持续向好，屠宰板块 ...

另存为PDF 生猪日报 | 2025-04-29 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、4月28日，生猪注册仓单705手； 2、LH2505合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月合约受后续出栏增量有限且下 半年属消费旺季、远月养殖成本可能抬升的预期影响支撑较强； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日增仓1071手，持仓约7.34万手，最高价14230元/ 吨，最低价14100元/吨，收盘于14130元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差仍有回落空间； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①屠企入库尚未结束能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格坚挺，说明供需不像空 头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐进入生猪 消费旺季；④玉米豆粕涨价可能抬升生猪养殖成本。 【策略建议】 1、观点：短期猪价 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company's revenue decreased by 11.90% year-on-year to 1.108 billion yuan, primarily due to the contraction of its real estate business, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 106.99% year-on-year to 112 million yuan, driven by the pig farming business [2] - The company has optimized breeding costs and is steadily expanding its scale, with the total cost of pig farming decreasing to 14.38 yuan/kg in 2024, down by 2.8 yuan/kg from 2023 [3] - The company plans to sell approximately 2.5 million pigs in 2025, with a significant increase in the number of breeding sows and a focus on cost reduction strategies [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.108 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.90% year-on-year, while net profit reached 112 million yuan, an increase of 106.99% year-on-year [2] - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 5.96 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 52.0%, followed by a recovery to 8.81 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 47.7% increase [6][8] Cost Management and Expansion - The company has implemented a refined management approach and smart systems in pig farming, leading to industry-leading cost control [3] - The breeding cost for pigs is expected to continue decreasing, with a target of 250 million pigs to be sold in 2025, reflecting a 16% increase from 2024 [4] Real Estate Business - The real estate business is currently in a phase of inventory reduction, with only a few projects remaining for sale [3] - The financial structure of the company is improving, with a decrease in the debt-to-asset ratio from 60.25% at the beginning of the year to 58.96% by the end of Q1 2025 [3] Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to continue benefiting from its pig farming business, with projected net profits of 8.19 billion yuan for 2025 and 9.14 billion yuan for 2026 [4] - The stock price as of April 25, 2025, is 15.73 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 10/9/7 for 2025/2026/2027, maintaining a "Buy" rating [4]

4月8日晚间，江苏立华食品集团股份有限公司(以下简称"立华股份（300761）")发布3月份销售情况简 报。3月份，立华股份黄羽肉鸡及肉猪销售量、销售收入均实现同比增长。从汇总情况来看，今年1月份 至3月份，立华股份黄羽肉鸡及肉猪销售收入合计39.22亿元。 尽管黄羽肉鸡及肉猪价格处于震荡状态，但相关养殖企业仍维持盈利状态。 王红焱表示："饲料成本在生猪养殖总成本中占比较大，通常可达到60%至80%。因此，饲料价格的变 动直接影响生猪养殖的利润空间。进入2025年，尽管猪价面临下行压力，但得益于饲料成本下降、生产 效率提升等因素，生猪养殖行业预计仍能维持盈利状态。" Mysteel监测的数据显示，3月份，国内豆粕现货价格走势以跌为主。全国玉米3月份均价为2249元/吨， 较上月均价涨83元/吨，环比涨幅3.83%，同比下跌8.26%。 "控制成本仍然是今年肉鸡养殖的主旋律，由于黄羽鸡市场供过于求，价格承压，企业盈利能力受到影 响。因此，控制成本对于维持盈利至关重要。同时，大宗原料如玉米、豆粕仍处于多年低位，有助于继 续降低养殖成本，从而为企业提供一定的盈利空间。"张文萍说。 多位接受采访的分析人士表示，尽管今 ...