欧洲央行副行长金多斯：欧洲央行的担忧已从通胀转向经济增长放缓。 ...

智通财经6月12日电，欧洲央行的GUINDOS表示，央行的担忧已从通胀转向经济增长放缓。 ...

欧洲央行副行长金多斯：欧洲央行的关注重点已从通胀转向经济增长放缓。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank Executive Board member Schnabel anticipates a further slowdown in wage growth [1] Group 1 - Wage growth is expected to decelerate, which may impact inflation dynamics in the Eurozone [1] - The statement reflects ongoing economic conditions and potential adjustments in monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank's latest report indicates that the default rate for high-risk U.S. companies is expected to rise slightly by 2026 due to economic slowdown and rising interest rates, particularly among speculative-grade firms [1][4]. Economic Environment - The tightening global monetary environment is a contributing factor to this trend, with the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield likely to exceed nominal GDP growth for the first time since 2011, increasing corporate financing costs [4]. - The probability of a recession in the U.S. economy is currently estimated at around 30%, highlighting significant risks to economic growth [4]. Corporate Financing Challenges - The tightening of loan standards by U.S. banks adds another layer of burden for companies, exacerbating the default risk amid economic slowdown and rising interest rates [6]. - Companies that rely heavily on high leverage and high-yield debt will face more severe challenges in the coming years [6]. Overall Economic Outlook - Despite potential growth in certain sectors, the overall economic environment in the U.S. remains uncertain, with factors such as slowing economic growth and rising financing costs likely preventing a decrease in corporate default rates by 2026 [6]. - The report emphasizes the need for investors to carefully assess the debt risks of high-risk companies and prepare for potential default events in the future [6].

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布全球经济关键预测报告《Morgan Stanley Research: Key Forecasts》，对美元资产仍持积极看法，建议投 资者超配美国股票、美国国债、美国投资级公司信贷，但不看好美元，认为随着美国与其他国家(地区)的经济增长和收益率差异收窄，美元 或会大幅贬值。 摩根士丹利牛熊及基本情景下主要资产预测表如下： | | As of Jun | | Q2 2026 Forecast | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 06. 2025 | Bear | Base | Bull | | Equities | | | | | | S&P 500 | 6.000 | 4,900 | 6,500 | 7,200 | | MSCI Europe | 2.200 | 1.610 | 2,250 | 2,620 | | Topix | 2.769 | 2,100 | 2,900 | 3,250 | | MSCI EM | 1.183 | 870 | 1,200 | 1,360 | | FX | | | | | | JPY. | 145 | ...

金十数据6月10日讯，英国工资增速降至7个月来的最低水平，就业人数大幅下降。在英国首相斯塔默领 导的政府提高招聘成本后，劳动力市场继续放缓。英国国家统计局周二公布，在截至4月份的三个月 里，不计奖金的薪酬增幅降至5.2%，为去年第三季度以来的最低水平。经济学家此前的平均预期是 5.3%。英国央行最为关注的私营部门工资增长从5.5%降至5.1%。在截至5月份的三个月里，职位空缺有 所下降。这些数据表明，在工党增加了企业工资税并提高了最低工资之后，企业正在寻求节省成本—— 这些变化于4月份生效。这可能会缓解英国央行的担忧，即工资增长加快将继续推动通胀，因为官员们 正试图遏制物价压力抬头。另一项税务数据显示，5月份就业人数下降10.9万人，降幅大于预期，为 2020年5月以来的最大降幅。 英国就业人数降幅创5年来最大，工资增长放缓 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha J P M O R G A N North America Economic Research 04 June 2025 US: ADP was another downbeat jobs signal The ADP employment report showed only a 37k increase in private sector payrolls in May, continuing a trend of softer numbers, with this report now showing gains of less than 100k in three of the last four months. In contrast, the BLS report did not show a similar slowdown through April, with its 3-month average (148k) actually stronger than the 12-month average (130k). In add ...

OECD预测美国2025年增长率放缓至1.6%，下调0.6个百分点。对中国的增长展望小幅下调…… 经济合作与发展组织（OECD）6月3日发布经济展望，预测2025年的世界增长率为2.9%。较3月下调0.2 个百分点。OECD认为，受美国特朗普政府提高关税影响，贸易和投资增长放缓严重，尤其在美国，增 长放缓和通货膨胀同时出现的不稳定状况将持续。 OECD在3月部分考虑到关税的影响，曾将全球增长率展望下调0.2个百分点，已连续2次下调。此次反映 了截至5月中旬的关税水平，根据未来关税谈判的结果，展望可能再次修正。 关税对经济产生的影响在美国最为严重。2024年平均为2%以上的进口商品关税税率目前上升至15%， 创出1938年以来的最高水平。推高美国国内物价的效果尤为明显。OECD略微下调了世界2025年的通货 膨胀率，而对美国却提高至3.2%。 关税上调导致销售价格上涨，消费者的购买力下降，同时政策的不确定性抑制消费和投资意愿。 美国经济的增长率与达到2.8%、表现强劲的2024年相比明显改变，预计2025年将放缓至1.6%。较上次 预测下调0.6个百分点。 加拿大、墨西哥和日本等与美国经济联系密切的国家预计面临 ...

欧洲央行行长拉加德：服务行业增长放缓。 ...