高盛投资策略团队近日对美国行业配置模型作出重要调整，建议投资者采取更为均衡的板块布局策略。 根据最新发布的行业模型，未来六个月采用等权重行业配置组合，相较等权重标普500指数获得5%及以 上超额收益的概率显著提升。 此次调整中，软件与服务、媒体与娱乐两大科技相关板块延续了此前的增持评级，同时新材料行业首次 被纳入核心推荐序列，而消费必需品板块则退出优先配置名单。 策略报告强调，当前美股市场对美国经济前景存在过度乐观倾向，但实际经济运行中既存在下行风险也 存在超预期可能。基于此，行业配置需避免明显偏向周期性或防御性板块，建议构建攻守兼备的投资组 合。 在具体板块选择上，软件与服务(长期增长预期14%)和媒体与娱乐(长期增长预期14%)凭借稳健的增长前 景脱颖而出，这类行业在经济温和增长环境下往往更具配置价值。防御性板块方面，公用事业和房地产 板块因预期债券收益率将小幅回落而获得策略师青睐。周期性板块中，材料行业较能源板块更具配置优 势，这主要基于对油价回落的预期判断。 值得注意的是，工业板块因整体估值处于历史高位被调低评级，策略模型显示该板块未来六个月实现显 著超额收益的可能性最低。此外，消费必需品和医疗保健板 ...

Core Insights - Nicotinamide, an important member of the B-vitamin family, has diversified applications in the food, pharmaceutical, and cosmetic industries, driven by its nutritional enhancement and functional characteristics [1][15] - The market size of the nicotinamide industry in China is projected to reach approximately 2.535 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 17.26% [1][15] - The industry is expected to benefit from the ongoing "Healthy China" strategy and the increasing consumer demand for functional products, indicating a broader development space in the future [1][15] Industry Overview - Nicotinamide, also known as niacinamide, is a white crystalline powder with a molecular weight of 122.125, primarily used in clinical settings for the prevention and treatment of various health issues [3] - The industry can be segmented into food-grade, cosmetic-grade, pharmaceutical-grade, and feed-grade nicotinamide, with varying concentrations available [3] Production Methods - Three main production methods for nicotinamide include oxidation of β-methylpyridine to niacin, dehydration of niacin with ammonium hydroxide, and a reaction involving niacin, boric acid, and ammonia [5][11] Applications and Benefits - Nicotinamide is recognized for its anti-acne, anti-inflammatory, whitening, and anti-aging properties, making it a popular ingredient in skincare products [7][8] - In the pharmaceutical sector, it is crucial for treating conditions related to niacin deficiency, while in cosmetics, it enhances skin barrier function and moisture retention [9][12] Industry Chain - The nicotinamide industry chain includes upstream raw material supply, midstream production and processing, and downstream applications in pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and food [9] - Key raw materials include 3-cyanopyridine, niacin, ammonia, and solvents, with production methods involving chemical synthesis or fermentation [9] Market Dynamics - The global nicotinamide industry exhibits a tiered competitive landscape, with leading companies like Lonza, Vantiv, and Brother Technology dominating the market [17][19] - Brother Technology is identified as a leading domestic player, focusing on the production and sales of nicotinamide and niacin products across various sectors [19][21] Future Trends - The industry is shifting towards high-value products, with a focus on technological innovation and product upgrades to enhance purity and bioavailability [26][28] - The application of nicotinamide is expanding into new areas such as oral beauty products and functional foods, driven by consumer trends and interdisciplinary research [27][28]

周四(7月10日）欧盘时段，尽管7月7日美元指数上涨0.57%至97.67，但7月10日回落至97.556，短期走强 主要受美国6月非农数据强劲支撑。然而，美元指数今年累计下跌约10%，接近三年半低点，叠加美国 联邦债务占GDP比重达125%、全球储备体系多元化加速，美元信用基础弱化趋势未改，长期仍为黄金 提供支撑。 黄金今日分析思路： 黄金昨天又走了一波触底反弹的行情，昨天白天一直在围绕3280关口整理后，美盘强势反弹上涨发力， 收盘于3313，从最低点反弹力度达31个点，周四开盘继续上冲，今日短线关注3330-3339阻力一线。从 周线级别看，周线上近期黄金价格持续高位震荡，按照日线级别看，上周金价进一步向上测试日线阻力 后承压，目前日线阻力于3328位置，黄金价格在此区域之下持续波段看承压。按照四小时级别看，价格 在昨日再度跌破四小时支撑，则四小时支撑再度成为关键阻力，随着时间的推移目前需要重点关注 3320-3330区域，此位置之下短期偏空对待。同时按照一小时上节奏上属于震荡式下跌，所以待黄金行 情回踩至四小时及日线阻力区域后再看承压，下方关注3275-3250区域。 白银：白银目前正测试36.30美 ...

在刚刚过去的2025年上半年里，全球金融市场仿佛置身于一场没有硝烟的战争。 以色列突然对伊朗动手，袭击了伊朗相关重要设施。受此影响，国际黄金价格大幅上涨，每盎司一度突破3440美元，国际原油价格也大幅飙升至每桶78美 元。 这对于全球资本市场的影响非常之大， A股、日经225指数、韩国KOSPI综指、澳大利亚综指等均呈不同幅度下跌。 与此同时，美股"科技神话"开始动摇：纳斯达克指数上半年区间下跌12%，特斯拉市值蒸发超3000亿美元，苹果股价也跌破了160美元关口...... 全球避险情绪达到沸点，单一资产的投资模式已经难以满足投资者对于资产稳定增值的配置需求。 01 多元配置FOF 为何成为资金"避风港"？ 什么是全球多元资产配置？顾名思义，就是将资金分散投资于不同国家、不同类别的资产中，以降低单一市场风险、捕捉全球市场机会的投资策略。 这个配置理念，在当前复杂多变的全球经济环境下显得尤为重要。以沪深300指数为例，过去十年指数的年化波动率为20%。可见，单一资产（如纯股 票、债券或商品）受市场情绪、政策变动等因素影响较大，波动较大。 正如《孙子兵法》所说："昔之善战者，先为不可胜，以待敌之可胜。"全球多元 ...

Core Viewpoint - Beijing is experiencing a significant expansion in high-quality commercial projects, with over 4.5 million square meters of new large commercial facilities set to open from 2022 to 2024, enhancing the city's commercial landscape and meeting consumer demand [1] Group 1: Commercial Development - A total of approximately 750,000 square meters of new large commercial facilities are expected to open in the first half of 2025, including notable projects in various districts such as Changping, Haidian, Fengtai, Chaoyang, and Xicheng [1] - The Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce emphasizes a dual approach of upgrading existing facilities and developing new ones to create a comprehensive commercial consumption space system [1] Group 2: Trends in Commercial Projects - The trend of creating "urban third spaces" is evident, with projects like Zhonghai Dajixiang and Zhongguancun ART PARK transforming into public gathering places for leisure, socializing, and cultural activities, rather than just shopping venues [2] - Many projects are breaking traditional retail boundaries by significantly increasing the proportion of dining, entertainment, cultural experiences, and social spaces, thus creating a diverse and integrated commercial environment [2] Group 3: Cultural Integration and Market Focus - Projects are incorporating local historical elements into modern consumer symbols, such as Dajixiang's "urban cultural reception hall" concept, blending tradition with contemporary styles [3] - A focus on niche markets is evident, with developments like THE BOX targeting younger demographics (ages 15 to 29) and hosting numerous events to attract significant foot traffic, showcasing a differentiated market strategy [3]

摩根大通CEO戴蒙：由民主党推动的多元、公平与包容（DEI）倡议被高估了。基于善意但缺乏理性的 政策已然失败。 ...

记者丨张伟泽 编辑丨李莹亮 江佩佩 7月10日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 为1美元对人民币7.1510元，相较前一交易日中间价7.1541元，调升31基点。 截至7月10日22:53，美元兑离岸人民币报7.18，自年初以来，美元兑人民币贬值超2%。 瑞银：中国科技股"内卷"是痛点 人民币汇率或重回7 . 0时代 7月10日，瑞银财富管理亚太区首席投资总监陈敏兰在媒体圆桌会议上对21世纪经济报道记者 表示，当前中国AI领域发展强劲，瑞银下半年继续看好中国科技股表现。 陈敏兰指出，当前关税战前景仍不明朗，在此情况下，中国在政策制定中料将保持观望态度， 预计下半年不会出台大规模财政刺激措施，但利率仍有下行空间。 陈敏兰表示， 过度竞争是投资者在中国面临的主要痛点之一。 部分中国企业认为，通过抢占 市场份额最终能获得更大收益，但对多数企业而言，这并非可持续战略。从全球视角看，这种 非理性的价格战也导致中国科技公司的估值仅为美国同类企业的一半。 7月1日，中央财经委员会第六次会议强调，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，要聚焦重点难点， 依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升 ...

Group 1: Chinese AI and Technology Sector - The Chinese AI sector is experiencing strong growth, and UBS remains optimistic about the performance of Chinese tech stocks in the second half of the year [1] - The ongoing tariff war presents an uncertain outlook, leading to a cautious stance from China regarding large-scale fiscal stimulus measures, although there is still room for interest rate reductions [1] - Over-competition is identified as a major pain point for investors in China, with many companies engaging in irrational price wars, resulting in Chinese tech companies being valued at only half of their U.S. counterparts [1] Group 2: Government Policies and Market Dynamics - The Chinese government is committed to combating "involution" and has signaled strong policy intentions to regulate low-price disorderly competition, encouraging companies to enhance product quality and facilitate the orderly exit of outdated capacities [1] - The ultimate winners in this competitive landscape are expected to possess global competitiveness [1] Group 3: Diversification Trends in Investment - There is a noticeable trend among clients shifting from U.S. assets to more diversified investments, with strong growth observed in Asian and European assets [2] - The volatility in the U.S. market serves as a reminder of the importance of diversification during periods of high uncertainty [2] - UBS plans to maintain U.S. asset allocation between 50% to 66%, with emerging markets in Asia, led by China, being a key focus for diversification [2] Group 4: Currency Outlook - Progress in trade negotiations and improved capital flows support the potential for further appreciation of the Renminbi, with expectations for the exchange rate to reach 1 USD to 7 CNY by mid-next year [2]

全款买房，意味着拥有完全的资产支配权，可以随时出租、出售或重新抵押，灵活性极高。同时，根据 国家统计局2024年的数据，全款房产平均增值速度为年化5.7%，为资产提供了稳健的保值增值渠道。 在购房这一人生重大经济决策面前，究竟是选择倾尽所有，全款买断，还是借助杠杆，分期付款？这两 种截然不同的支付方式，犹如两条分叉的人生轨迹，将深刻影响着家庭未来数十年的命运走向。 回顾2024年的数据，全款购房者仅占新房交易的22.3%，而其余77.7%的购房者选择了按揭贷款。这一 比例的差异，不仅仅是支付方式的选择，更体现了人们对财富管理、风险偏好以及生活方式的深层思 考。 若以2025年为例，全国平均房价已攀升至每平方米15000元，这意味着一套100平米的住房，所需资金就 高达150万元。仅以北京为例，2025年二季度平均房价达到每平方米67000元，购买一套90平米的两居 室，则需一次性支付约603万元。如此巨额的资金投入，是选择瞬间拥有产权，还是细水长流，值得深 思。 全款购房，意味着一次性支付全部房款，即刻拥有房屋的完整产权，免去了每月还贷的压力。全款购房 者平均年龄为43.7岁，往往拥有稳定的高收入或丰厚的家庭 ...

2025.07. 10 根据越南财政部统计局日前公布的数据，越南上半年国内生产总值（GDP）的增长率为7.52%，创下 2011年以来同期的最高水平。 据新华社报道，特朗普7月2日表示，美国已经与越南达成贸易协议。他在帖文中称，越南所有对美出口 商品将面临至少20%关税，并对美国"完全开放市场"。 而在"对等关税"暂缓期内，越南商品出口美国只需缴纳10%的"基准关税"。当前，越南许多本土和外资 企业利用所谓"对等关税"的暂缓期加快交货速度。2025年第二季度，越南的出口总额同比增长了18%， 这在一定程度上刺激了经济的大比例增长。 本文字数：1576，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 钱小岩 上海国际问题研究院东南亚研究中心主任周士新向第一财经记者表示，在国际贸易动荡的特殊时期，越南 短期内对美贸易不降反增，"这一现象不仅反映了越南的出口意愿，也体现了美国企业希望抓紧进口来降 低成本的意图，美国与越南等亚洲国家的贸易联系难以阻断。" ▲ 越南首都河内一景 （新华社资料图） 各行业并非齐头并进 根据财政部统计局的数据，越南2025年第二季度（GDP）增长7.96%，综合第一季度数据上半年增长率 为7.52 ...