7月17日，和讯投顾徐斌箐表示，今天让不少股民破防，堪称踏空的一天，似乎所有板块都在涨，唯独 自己手上的票不涨。今年以来，消费板块有所表现，昨晚发酵的国内大循环概念稍纵即逝，随后算力、 机器人等科技板块成为主角，CPU领域有易中天三巨头，PCB有两巨头，还有算力、机器人相关个股； 下午鸿蒙和军工板块消息频出、表现活跃；创新药板块也有所上涨。 现在的行情变得很特殊，连板不像连板，反包不像反包，趋势不像趋势，持有相关股票需一直拿着才能 赚钱，中途下车很容易卖飞，做短线又容易追高，所以把握行情节奏很重要。如果节奏跟不上，踏空也 无妨，毕竟科技板块不像银行板块那样走得慢但稳，科技板块走得快又不稳，低吸时它天天创新高，一 追进去它可能就深度砸盘，洗盘后再拉新高。徐斌箐认为，深圳成指这波有望突破11000点，行情可能 是金融搭台、题材唱戏，大盘与小盘、金融与科技相互滚动，自己把握好节奏即可，若把握不好，索性 放弃，等一条主线出现再说，否则这么多科技板块都在涨，确实不好选择。 今天多个板块走强，每个板块涨停股票都不少于5只，深证成指涨超1%，仿佛深证指数迎来了"牛市"， 但估计很少有人一直持有深证成指的权重大票，前段时间半 ...

今年以来，中央政府层面已多次部署做强国内大循环工作：7月16日召开的国务院常务会议明确，研究 做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作；5月15日国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会；"大力提振消 费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求"，也是2025年政府工作报告提出的重点任务。"当前以促消费 为核心，部署壮大内循环，有很强的迫切性和必要性。这也符合经济增长动能转换的大方向。"东方金 诚首席宏观分析师王青说。中国财政学会绩效专委会副主任委员张依群表示，把做强国内大循环摆在更 加突出的位置，积极应对外部环境的不确定性，以消费带动投资，促进产业结构转型和产业技术升级， 推动经济转型和高质量发展。同时，激发内需消费动能，补足民生领域短板，提升居民生活水平，用大 循环推动消费经济良性循环。(上海证券报) ...

本报记者 张芗逸 7月16日，国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议，研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作。会议指出，做强国内 大循环是推动经济行稳致远的战略之举。 今年以来，我国将做强国内大循环摆在更加重要的位置，综合施策扩大内需、促进生产、畅通循环，以中国经济的稳定性 和确定性来应对外部的不确定性。 内需潜力释放 今年以来，我国加大力度实施更加积极的宏观政策，以消费品以旧换新、工业企业设备更新等举措为抓手，做强国内大循 环。 以消费品以旧换新为例，据国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任李超介绍，消费品以旧换新方面，超长期特别国债资金支持 力度为3000亿元，前2批共1620亿元资金已按计划分别于1月、4月下达。 从政策成效来看，国家发展改革委数据显示，今年以来以旧换新相关商品销售额超过1.4万亿元。 随着政策持续显效，发挥稳投资、扩消费、促转型、惠民生作用，内需成为上半年经济增长的主动力。国家统计局最新数 据显示，上半年内需对GDP增长的贡献率为68.8%，其中最终消费支出贡献率为52%。 中航证券首席经济学家董忠云对《证券日报》记者表示，此次会议将做强国内大循环明确定位为"推动经济行稳致远的战 略之举"，凸显 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is focusing on supply chain cooperation as a key direction for economic collaboration among member countries, with significant achievements reported in recent years [1][2]. Group 1: Achievements in Supply Chain Cooperation - The SCO has implemented strategies such as infrastructure connectivity, industrial collaboration, and digital transformation from 2020 to 2024, leading to notable results in supply chain cooperation [1]. - The continuous upgrade of cross-border railways, particularly the China-Europe Railway Express, has been highlighted as a key achievement, with the average transport time reduced from 18 days to 15 days over the past five years, enhancing international competitiveness and risk resilience [1]. Group 2: Challenges and Recommendations - The SCO's supply chain cooperation faces challenges, including reliance on external core technologies and key components, as well as outdated logistics infrastructure in some member countries, particularly landlocked ones [2]. - To overcome these challenges, the report suggests that the SCO should focus on three core dimensions: technological innovation, institutional coordination, and platform construction, to build a self-sufficient, secure, and smooth regional circulation system [2].

五年时间"再造"一个长三角！ 最近，国家发展改革委召开了一场重磅的新闻发布会，既是对"十四五"规划的一份详细总结和 梳理，也是这五年来国家晒出来的一份亮眼成绩单。您要想了解过去五年中国干成了什么，干 好了什么，未来五年的方向是什么，就一定要仔细关注了！要说这五年，咱可没闲着，经济底 盘更稳了，办事效率更高了，老百姓的实惠也更多了。总结起来就是三大感受：国家更强了， 办事更快了，生活更好了！ 首先是，"国家更强了"——这几年里经济增长总量超35万亿，这是什么概念？相当于再造一 个"长三角"那么大的经济体量！"十四五"期间，前四年中国经济平均增速达到5.5%，虽然增速 有所放缓，但步子走得更稳当，更踏实，增长水平仍然远超西方发达国家。特别是在经受过疫 情冲击、产业升级、有效需求不足、贸易摩擦等一系列问题和挑战后，能取得这样的成绩，确 实是来之不易。当前的经济增长，增速和质量同等重要，如此巨大的经济体量，仍能保持5% 左右的增速，可见全国统一大市场和以国内大循环为主的战略的巨大潜力。中国速度，关键时 刻真靠得住！ 出品丨21财经客户端 财经早察工作室 总统筹丨邓红辉 执行统筹丨陈晨星 祝乃娟 监制丨洪晓文 曾婷芳 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing. The industrial inventory, although accumulating, is still in a low - level range, and the consumption expectation is positive. The option market sentiment is bullish, with a slightly decreased implied volatility. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 77,840 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,599.50 dollars/ton, down 35.50 dollars. The spread between different months of the main contract was 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 153,791 hands, down 6,666 hands. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 4,039 hands, up 4,268 hands. The LME copper inventory was 121,000 tons, up 10,525 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 81,462 tons, down 3,127 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants were 12,325 tons, down 300 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 42,139 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 78,020 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 78,035 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 66 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper was 51 dollars/ton, down 2.50 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 180 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The LME copper premium (0 - 3) was - 64.49 dollars/ton, down 16.22 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 43.79 dollars/kiloton, up 0.46 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 68,320 yuan/metal ton, down 70 yuan; the price in Yunnan was 69,020 yuan/metal ton, down 70 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 1.302 billion tons, up 0.048 billion tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 464,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 54,790 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 66,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of sulfuric acid (98%) of Jiangxi Copper was 600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 2.2145 billion tons, up 0.1185 billion tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 203.986 billion yuan, up 63.169 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 9.96%, down 0.27%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.12%, down 0.17%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month was 10.15%, down 0.0065. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.62, up 0.0102 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The State Council Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting. The National Committee Chairman Wang Huning emphasized the importance of expanding domestic demand. From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 571,000 vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 7% and a month - on - month decrease of 5%. The retail sales of the new - energy passenger car market were 332,000 vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 26% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. The US PPI in June was flat month - on - month. The Fed's "Beige Book" showed a slight increase in economic activity [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach, with a reference price range of 26.0 - 26.5. The macro - economic situation shows the US June PPI hitting a near - one - year low, and Trump's tariff plans and trade agreement announcements. In terms of fundamentals, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted mining license approvals, actual ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter, and the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in phases. Currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows. On the smelting side, Yunnan faces raw material shortages and cost pressures, while Jiangxi's scrap recycling system is under pressure with low operating rates. On the demand side, after the photovoltaic industry's rush to install, some producers' operating rates have declined, and the electronics industry is in a slack season with a strong wait - and - see attitude. Recently, tin prices have dropped, but downstream procurement willingness is still low, and domestic inventories have decreased slightly while LME de - stocking has slowed and the premium has declined. Technically, there is a divergence between long and short positions at a low level of holdings, and the price has broken below the MA60 support, increasing the downward pressure [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 261,920 yuan/ton, down 2,040 yuan; the 3 - month LME tin price is 33,260 US dollars/ton, down 300 US dollars. The 8 - 9 month contract closing price for Shanghai tin is - 170 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the main contract position volume for Shanghai tin is 22,969 lots, up 221 lots. The net position of the top 20 in futures for Shanghai tin is 610 lots, up 261 lots. LME tin total inventory is 1,980 tons, down 115 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory is 7,097 tons, down 101 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 420 tons, down 150 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 6,777 tons, down 70 tons [3]. 2. Spot Market - The SMM1 tin spot price is 261,900 yuan/ton, down 1,700 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 263,570 yuan/ton, down 970 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 360 yuan/ton, down 1,720 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 115 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 254,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 258,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 171,130 yuan/ton, down 1,040 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160,140 tons, up 14,450 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3]. 6. Industry News - The US June PPI year - on - year growth was 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, with a month - on - month growth of 0%. Trump said he plans to impose "slightly more than 10% tariffs" on at least 100 countries and mentioned trade agreements. Li Qiang said to study the implementation of key policies for strengthening the domestic large - cycle and regulate the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry [3]. 7. Key Focus - There is no news today [3].

7月15日，国家统计局公布经济"半年报"。从各项数据来看，中国经济仍顶压前行、稳定运行。初步核算，上半年国内生产总值660536亿元，按不变价格 计算，同比增长5.3%。 今年以来，大家都有所感受，国际环境复杂多变、国际经贸秩序遭受重创，不稳定性、不确定性增加。在这样的背景下，这份成绩单的"含金量"不言而 喻。 第一个字，"进"。以新质生产力为例，我们知道，新质生产力是推动高质量发展的内在要求和重要着力点。从上半年情况来看，新质生产力继续在加快培 育和成长，其中一个突出表现就是创新成果不断涌现。今年以来，从DeepSeek大模型到机器人马拉松赛，从航空航天到无人驾驶，引起国内外广泛关 注。更重要的是，这些创新成果并非偶然，而源于技术创新与产业创新融合发展力度加大。目前，数字经济核心产业增加值占GDP比重达到10%左右，上 半年高技术产业增加值同比增长9.5%，可见新动能正在加快积聚。 第二个字，"稳"。经济运行"稳"的主基调没有变，只有中国经济"稳"的基础更加牢固，"进"的势头才更加明显。上半年GDP同比增长5.3%，其中一季度是 5.4%，二季度是5.2%，上半年的增速比去年同期和全年均提升0.3个百分点， ...

0:00 财经早察主播 胡光旗 五年时间"再造"一个长三角！ 最近，国家发展改革委召开了一场重磅的新闻发布会，既是对"十四五"规划的一份详细总结和梳理，也 是这五年来国家晒出来的一份亮眼成绩单。您要想了解过去五年中国干成了什么，干好了什么，未来五 年的方向是什么，就一定要仔细关注了！要说这五年，咱可没闲着，经济底盘更稳了，办事效率更高 了，老百姓的实惠也更多了。总结起来就是三大感受：国家更强了，办事更快了，生活更好了！ 首先是，"国家更强了"——这几年里经济增长总量超35万亿，这是什么概念？相当于再造一个"长三 角"那么大的经济体量！"十四五"期间，前四年中国经济平均增速达到5.5%，虽然增速有所放缓，但步 子走得更稳当，更踏实，增长水平仍然远超西方发达国家。特别是在经受过疫情冲击、产业升级、有效 需求不足、贸易摩擦等一系列问题和挑战后，能取得这样的成绩，确实是来之不易。当前的经济增长， 增速和质量同等重要，如此巨大的经济体量，仍能保持5%左右的增速，可见全国统一大市场和以国内 大循环为主的战略的巨大潜力。中国速度，关键时刻真靠得住！ 这五年来，中国创新可谓是"火力全开"，国家在科研上可是下了血本！研发经费投 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of strengthening domestic circulation as a strategic move to counter external risks and ensure stable economic growth in China [1][3]. Group 1: Domestic Circulation and Economic Growth - The State Council meeting highlighted the need to enhance domestic circulation to promote stable and sustainable economic development, especially in light of increasing external challenges [1]. - The contribution of domestic demand to GDP growth in the first half of the year was 68.8%, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52%, indicating that domestic consumption is the main driver of economic growth [3][4]. Group 2: Consumption and Investment Trends - In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24.5458 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, with a notable increase in sales following the May Day and Dragon Boat Festival holidays [4]. - Fixed asset investment grew by 2.8% year-on-year, but showed a decline of 0.12% month-on-month in June, indicating a potential slowdown in investment activities [4]. Group 3: Policy Measures to Boost Consumption - The government plans to implement specific measures to boost consumption, including optimizing the "old-for-new" policy for consumer goods, which has already seen sales exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan [4][5]. - The expansion of the "old-for-new" policy to include more product categories is expected to create new consumption growth points and support high-quality, green, and intelligent products [5]. Group 4: Service Consumption Potential - Service retail sales grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half, with significant growth in sectors like leisure, transportation, and personalized consumption [7][8]. - The government aims to enhance service consumption by addressing key issues and increasing the supply of diverse services related to daily life, such as dining, healthcare, and education [8]. Group 5: Future Policy Directions - Analysts suggest that the government may introduce new measures to stimulate consumption, including the issuance of long-term special bonds and increasing support for the "old-for-new" policy [8]. - The overall low government debt level and low inflation provide ample room for policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the macroeconomic environment [8].