2025 上半年中国物业管理市场总结&下半年趋势展望 中指研究院 2025-07-07 （一）市场环境：政策规范物业服务市场，平衡各方利益 1. 《人民日报》发文整顿物业乱象，规范服务行为 2025 年 4 月，《人民日报》党建版刊发《整治物业管理乱象，靶向发力》， 报道成都市在物业管理领域开展专项整治行动的情况。报道从查到底、专项治和 建机制三个角度，聚焦物业管理领域乱象，靶向发力，查处腐败案件，健全制度 机制，推动解决一系列群众急难愁盼问题。 物业管理乱象是长期困扰基层治理的主要问题之一，其出现原因主要包括以 下几个方面：其一，部分物业项目存在先天性的结构失衡，其中"建管不分"的 遗留问题尤为突出，由于前期物业管理通常由开发商指定关联物企负责，物业公 司缺乏独立性和中立性，容易偏向开发商利益，在房屋质量、规划变更、设施移 交等问题上难以维护业主权益。其二，当下行业市场透明度仍处在较低水平，物 业企业与业主的信息严重不对称，业主难以清晰了解物业服务成本构成、标准执 行细节、公共收益明细，物业公司则掌握全部信息和资源。其三，监督执行与法 制建设仍然存在不足，监管力量薄弱、执法难，街道、社区一级缺乏专业人员和 ...

最近美股市场热闹非凡，标普500指数屡创新高，各路专家纷纷发表高见。美国知名投研机构CFRA Research预测未来12个月可能再涨9%，而另一边美国银 行策略师却警告泡沫风险。作为在股市摸爬滚打多年的老股民，我早已看透这些"专家"的把戏。 记得刚入市时，我也曾虔诚地追着各路专家的分析看。但很快发现一个有趣的现象：这些专家就像墙头草，今天说牛市来了，明天又警告风险将至。他们最 擅长的就是把简单的事情说得云里雾里，让人似懂非懂。 就拿最近的例子来说，2024年二季度外资一边高喊"从不做题材股"，一边却悄悄把重组概念股买了个遍。要不是后来报表披露，谁能想到这些"专家"如此表 里不一？这让我明白一个道理：不要听专家说什么，要看他们怎么做。 在股市摸爬滚打这些年，我逐渐明白一个道理：市场争夺的其实就是定价权。而定价权永远掌握在机构手中。他们可能有100个心眼，但最终都会反映在交 易行为上。 | 序号 | | ■ 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 现价(元) | 涨跌幅(%) | 区间涨跌幅:前复权(%) ? | 机构持股数量明细(股) ? | 机构持股比例明细(%)(2 | 机构 | | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a rare phenomenon of "crowded" trading in a volatile market, where trading activity has increased despite stable interest rates and unclear market direction [3][8] - The micro trading sentiment index has risen from 36% to 58% over the past 20 trading days, indicating a significant increase in trading enthusiasm [8][27] - The report questions whether the rising trading heat necessarily indicates valuation imbalance, suggesting that high trading activity does not inherently mean that pricing is unreasonable [5][16] Trading Characteristics - Recent market trading behavior shows a clear warming trend, particularly in two dimensions: consistent duration extension and consistent yield spread compression [4][14] - The market is exhibiting a unified behavior of extending duration, with fund durations rising to high levels and a decrease in the divergence of holding durations [4][14] - There is a notable shift of funds towards less active bonds, leading to a significant increase in their trading volume, reflecting a strong trading willingness despite limited downward space for interest rates [4][14] Valuation Assessment - The report argues that high trading heat does not equate to pricing imbalance, emphasizing that the rationality of interest rate pricing is based on macro fundamentals, liquidity, and policy expectations [5][16] - Current interest rates have not broken previous lows, indicating that the market retains a degree of caution regarding fundamental directions and policy expectations [5][16] - The report's constructed micro trading indicators show significant differences in crowdedness metrics, with trading heat indicators at 63% and pricing matching indicators at only 26%, suggesting that the risk of significant pricing imbalance is manageable [17][24] Liquidity and Market Dynamics - Marginal improvements in liquidity provide a foundation for interest rate compression, with a notable decline in funding costs since June [6][19] - The report indicates that the current round of yield spread convergence is not solely due to trading "involution," but is supported by an improved funding environment [6][19] - The relationship between funding prices and economic marginal trends has been highlighted, with a successful signal identification model showing a high success rate in predicting funding rate directions based on PMI data [20][21] Historical Context - The report draws parallels to the 2022 interest rate fluctuation phase, where high trading heat coexisted with reasonable pricing, suggesting that current trading characteristics may not trigger systemic adjustments [27][28]

7 月债市从量变到质变 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 7 月 6 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 证券研究报告 债券研究 [T专题able_ReportType] 报告 [Table_A 李一爽 uthor 固定收益 ] 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+8618817583889 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com 37 月债市从量变到质变 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 6 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com2 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [➢Table_Summary] 6 月债券市场超长非活跃券与信用债出现结构性行情，历史上看活跃券下行 受限、投资者通过交易部分流动性偏弱品种获取超额收益，可能反映了利 好因素已被活跃券充分定价，这可能是行情进入尾声的信号。但当前市场 行情与过去的差异之处在 ...

● 本报记者马爽 然而，在我国塑料产品对外贸易蓬勃发展之际，部分企业也格外关注与企业切身利益紧密相关的定价方 式。据中化石化销售有限公司相关业务负责人介绍，公司目前对于塑料品种的进出口业务均有涉 及。"无论进出口，定价的依据多为现货价格指数，或者就是双方一单一谈，最后按一口价成交。" 多位市场人士称，指数定价在实际应用中也存在一些问题。其基础数据多采自主流港口大型贸易商和生 产商，采集与计算方式未完全公开，样本的覆盖范围、代表性以及数据透明度、抗操纵性都难以保障。 此外，数据采集与发布存在时滞，市场日内大幅波动时，指数难以及时反映市场变动。另外，由于进出 口海运周期长，企业面临较大的价格波动风险，不少企业虽然借助期货市场套期保值，但若现货贸易价 格不公允、不及时，期货锁价效果也会大打折扣。 在此背景下，不少企业将目光投向了期货市场。"在国际贸易中，像PP这些塑料产品，中国市场和中国 企业应该在定价过程中有更大的影响力和话语权。"在金能科技（603113）股份有限公司副总经理伊国 勇看来，期货价格相对其他一些定价参考明显更加公允透明，国内企业就应该在外贸中多用。 交易所多举措助力发展 事实上，期货定价以及基于期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The alumina market has experienced significant fluctuations in 2025, characterized by a transition from supply shortages to oversupply, leading to price declines and subsequent rebounds due to production adjustments and external disruptions [2][3][5]. Supply and Production - In the first half of 2025, alumina prices fell sharply from over 4600 to below 2700, marking a new low since listing, primarily due to increased production and a shift to oversupply [2]. - By the end of May 2025, domestic alumina production capacity reached 10,890 million tons/year, a year-on-year increase of 6.45%, while operational capacity was 8,460 million tons/year, showing a slight decrease of 0.82% year-on-year [5]. - The overall alumina supply has cycled from oversupply to tightness and back to oversupply, with significant production cuts occurring in response to industry losses [5][8]. Price Trends - The alumina market saw a V-shaped price movement from mid-May to the end of June, influenced by temporary supply tightness and subsequent profit recovery among producers [3]. - Despite a slight rebound in prices, the overall expectation remains for continued oversupply, which is likely to exert downward pressure on prices [8][17]. Demand Dynamics - The demand for alumina is not expected to see significant improvement, as the electrolytic aluminum sector, a major downstream consumer, faces capacity constraints [9]. - In the first five months of 2025, China's alumina exports increased significantly, with a total of 117.23 million tons exported, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 79.37% [9]. External Factors - The Guinea mining sector faced disruptions due to government actions, but the overall impact on alumina supply was limited, as exports from Guinea remained robust [11][12]. - Despite concerns over mining operations in Guinea, the overall alumina supply situation is expected to remain stable, with no significant shortages anticipated [13][17]. Cost and Profitability - The average production cost for alumina in China was reported at 2879.8 yuan/ton, with an average profit of 187.20 yuan/ton, indicating a challenging profitability landscape despite declining costs [15][17]. - The industry is expected to continue facing pressure from oversupply, with potential for further production cuts if losses persist [17].

1. 初步询价阶段：发行人（如上市公司）与主承销商（证券公司等）确定发行计划，编制招股说明书等文件。主承销商会向符合条件的机构投 资者（如基金公司、证券公司、社保基金等）发出询价函，邀请其对证券的发行价格和拟申购数量进行报价。主承销商整理各机构投资者的 报价，了解市场对该证券的价格预期和需求情况。例如，某即将上市的科技公司，主承销商向多家基金公司发出询价函，基金公司根据对该 科技公司的前景分析、行业估值等因素给出各自的报价。 2. 确定发行价格区间：根据初步询价的结果，主承销商和发行人共同确定一个发行价格区间。这个区间通常会考虑公司的估值、行业平均市盈 率、市场整体情况等因素。假设在初步询价中，机构投资者的报价集中在 20 - 30 元每股，主承销商和发行人经过综合分析，可能将发行价 格区间确定为 22 - 28 元每股。 3. 累计投标询价阶段（网下询价）：在价格区间内，机构投资者根据自己的判断确定具体的申购价格和数量，并将申购信息提交给主承销商。 主承销商统计各价格对应的申购总量，分析市场需求与价格的关系。主承销商和发行人根据累计投标的结果，选择一个能够使证券顺利发行 且价格合理的最终发行价格。比如，若在 ...

智通财经记者 | 宋佳楠 任天堂Switch 2自发布以来销量不断攀升，但价格过高问题也受到诸多用户指责。 任天堂Switch各代产品售价 智通财经制图 对比任天堂过往主机，如SFC、N64、NGC以及Wii，定价均为25000日元（约合人民币1239元），Wii U为26250日元（约合人民币1301元）。即使考虑通货膨胀与汇率因素，Switch 2价格仍处于高位。 尽管价格备受争议，Switch 2销量却十分亮眼。任天堂官网数据显示，Switch 2在发售首月，全球累计 销量达500万台，远超2017年Switch发售首月274万台的纪录。 其中，日本地区销量147万台，北美180万台、欧洲118万台，其他地区55万台。在美国，Switch 2是上市 四天内销售最快的任天堂硬件；在日本，其首周销量约是初代Switch的三倍，成为日本历史上首周销量 最高的游戏主机。此前，任天堂预计Switch 2游戏机2026财年（截至2026年3月31日）的销量将达到 1500万台。 由于销售火爆，Switch 2已出现产能吃紧问题。古川俊太郎表示，目前Switch 2全球需求远超预期，给 部分玩家带来不便。初期抽签销售 ...

记者 李成东 最近，从韩国博主姜欣妍的兰笋挖掘之旅到美国博主大洋的天文咖啡体验，松江——这个被誉 为"上海之根"的文化名城在国际舞台上不断崭露头角。 韩国博主说，韩国人来上海除了打卡耳熟能详的陆家嘴"三件套"，去虹桥"老外街"品尝美食外，还 可以到沪郊松江微度假，体验"地下酒店探秘""千年斜塔解谜""水下遗址寻根"这新三件套的魅力。随着 上海加速打造"中国入境旅游第一站"，松江正通过文化解码、场景重构、全球叙事，渐渐成为国际游 客"深度体验中国"的又一选择。 与此同时，松江制作英语、韩语、日语等多语种文旅宣传短视频及电子手册，通过境外社交媒体平 台及国际旅行商渠道进行定向投放，并邀请美国、韩国、泰国等国家网红大V探访深坑酒店、广富林遗 址，在社交媒体上获得百万级播放量，有效提升了松江文旅的全球曝光度。 这套组合拳让松江的文旅IP从"区域推介"升级为"全球传播"。佘山世茂洲际酒店市场销售总监林叶 向记者展示了境外预订平台的数据。酒店从今年3月以来，来自泰国、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、新加坡 等国的旅客预订量较去年涨幅均超100%。松江广富林希尔顿酒店日韩客人也增幅显著。 区区联动激活流量 政策引导全球传播 松江在韩 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant growth and transformation of China's petrochemical industry, particularly in the plastic sector, emphasizing the importance of pricing strategies in international trade and the increasing role of futures markets in establishing price benchmarks [1][2][3]. Industry Development - In 2024, China's petrochemical industry is projected to generate revenue of 16 trillion yuan, with the plastic sector contributing approximately 2.3 trillion yuan [2]. - Plastic product exports have surpassed 90 billion USD, accounting for 35% of the global market, with an annual growth rate of over 6% in exports to Southeast Asia [2]. - The import volume of PVC is expected to decrease by 20.4% year-on-year to 403,000 tons, while exports will reach 3.108 million tons, representing 14% of total production [2]. - PP imports are projected to drop by 12.6% to 2.356 million tons, while exports will increase by 88.2% to 2.162 million tons [2]. Pricing Concerns - Pricing methods in international trade are a major concern for companies, with many relying on spot price indices or negotiated prices [3][4]. - Issues with index pricing include lack of transparency, data collection delays, and the inability to reflect market fluctuations promptly [3][4]. - Companies are increasingly looking to the futures market for pricing solutions to mitigate risks associated with price volatility during long shipping cycles [4]. Futures Market Utilization - The adoption of futures pricing and related trading models has become widespread in the domestic chemical market, with over 90% of spot trades in certain chemicals using DCE futures contracts as pricing references [5][6]. - DCE has implemented over 20 optimization measures since 2021 to adapt to industry needs and enhance risk management [6][7]. - Innovations in delivery systems, such as group delivery and trade warehouse systems, have improved the efficiency and accessibility of futures trading for chemical companies [7][8]. Cost Reduction Initiatives - DCE has revised brand management policies to lower participation costs for chemical companies, resulting in over 97% of stored products being exempt from inspection [8][9]. - The reduction of risk deposits for delivery warehouses has alleviated financial pressure on companies, with over 31 million yuan in risk deposits returned [8][9]. Global Competitiveness - The use of futures pricing in exports has enhanced price transparency and efficiency, allowing companies to better manage profits and risks in the global market [14]. - The establishment of a recognized domestic futures market can help mitigate the impact of international price fluctuations and strengthen national economic security [14].