大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 07 月 10 日 | | | | 航运日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 第一部分 | | | 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） | | | | | | | | 银河期货集运指数（欧线） | 日报 | | | | | | | | | 期货盘面 | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2508 | 2,022.5 | 10.0 | 0.50% | 34,566.0 | 36.10% | 30,945.0 | -1.29% | | EC2510 | 1,401.1 | 11.1 | 0.80% | 13,584.0 | 32.01% | 29,957.0 | 1.06% | | EC2512 | 1,556.4 | 2.7 | 0.17% | 1,644.0 | -21.15% | 6,032.0 | -1.08% | | EC2602 | 1,365.7 | 12.3 ...

期货热点追踪 特朗普关税政策令铜市承压，铜贸易商紧急行动将铜运往夏威夷，全球铜库存减少，市场供需如何重新 平衡？ 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decision by President Trump to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper is shocking in both timing and scale, significantly impacting the copper market and global supply chain [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the tariff, COMEX copper prices surged by 17%, reaching historic highs, while LME copper prices experienced volatility, with a price range between $9,769.50 and $9,553.00 per ton [1][4]. - Analysts predict that the price differential between New York and London copper will continue to widen, potentially reaching 50% as U.S. importers rush to purchase copper ahead of the tariff implementation [5][6]. Group 2: Supply Chain Implications - The U.S. is heavily reliant on copper imports, with the U.S. Geological Survey estimating a consumption of 3.4 million tons in 2024, nearly half of which will be imported [1][2]. - The U.S. domestic copper production is only 1.1 million tons, a 3% decline year-on-year, which is minimal compared to the global production of 23 million tons [1][2]. Group 3: Long-term Industry Outlook - Analysts express concerns that the U.S. has underinvested in copper mining and refining for decades, making self-sufficiency nearly impossible in the short term [2]. - The International Energy Agency forecasts global copper demand to reach 26.7 million tons in 2024, with a 7% increase over the past three years and a projected 17% growth by 2030 [4]. Group 4: Economic Impact on U.S. Companies - U.S. companies are expected to bear the brunt of the tariff, leading to increased costs for copper, especially as the dollar has depreciated by approximately 15% this year [6][7]. - The uncertainty created by the tariff announcement has left many in the copper trading and production sectors confused, with potential negative implications for all domestic copper consumers [7].

Group 1 - The precious metals market is expected to maintain a high-level oscillation trend due to strong support from market conditions and geopolitical factors [1][2] - The recent increase in tariffs by the U.S. has led to a resurgence of market risk aversion, providing strong short-term support for gold prices [2][3] - The World Gold Council indicates that gold prices will benefit from rising U.S. deficits and increasing fiscal instability, which are driving global capital reallocation [3] Group 2 - Analysts from Saxo Bank believe that factors driving precious metal prices upward still exist, with expectations of increased demand due to declining U.S. interest rates [4] - The current gold price is oscillating within a relatively narrow range, lacking new bullish catalysts, which increases the risk of further market corrections [4] - Future support factors for precious metals include ongoing central bank demand, inflation risks in the U.S., geopolitical tensions, and a shift of institutional investors towards tangible assets [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific outlooks and trading suggestions for various commodities. 2. Core Views - **Macro Environment**: Market uncertainties persist across different sectors, influencing the price movements of various commodities. The economic situation, policy changes, and geopolitical factors all play significant roles in shaping market trends [1]. - **Commodity - Specific Trends**: Different commodities have distinct price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and external influences such as tariffs and geopolitical events. For example, some metals are expected to face downward pressure due to factors like supply increases or cost - related issues, while others may see price rebounds or stabilizations [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories **Macro - Financial** - **Equity Index**: In the short term, with limited domestic and international positive factors, but decent market sentiment and liquidity, the equity index may show a relatively strong oscillatory pattern [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning about interest - rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Given market uncertainties, the gold price is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price is likely to oscillate due to market uncertainties [1]. **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The potential implementation of US copper tariffs may lead to a back - flow of non - US copper, posing a risk of price correction for Shanghai and London copper [1]. - **Aluminum**: With the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and high prices suppressing downstream demand, the aluminum price faces a risk of decline. However, the domestic anti - involution policy boosts the expectation of supply - side reform, causing the alumina price to stabilize and rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Tariff disturbances are increasing, and the expected inventory build - up is still pressuring the zinc price. Traders are advised to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: With macro uncertainties and a slight decline in the premium of Indonesian nickel ore, the nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term short - selling is recommended, and in the long - term, the oversupply of primary nickel will continue to exert downward pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: After a rebound, the sustainability of the stainless - steel price is uncertain. Short - term trading is advised, and selling hedges can be considered at high prices, while keeping an eye on raw - material changes and steel production [1]. - **Tin**: With increasing tariff disturbances, the tin price is mainly priced based on macro factors. In the short term, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the driving force for price movement is limited [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply shows a pattern of decrease in the north and increase in the south. Although the demand for polysilicon has a marginal increase, there are expectations of future production cuts. After the price rally, market divergence is likely to emerge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic market, and market sentiment is high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply side has not seen production cuts, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital - based gaming in the market [1]. **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The strong performance of furnace materials provides cost support, but the spot market for hot - rolled coils has a risk of marginal weakening. Both are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, production has increased, demand is decent, supply - demand is relatively balanced, but cost support is insufficient, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is under pressure due to short - term production increases, relatively balanced supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Production has slightly increased, demand is okay, and supply - demand is relatively balanced [1]. - **Glass**: There is an improvement in the supply - demand margin in the short term, with stable supply and resilient demand. However, in the medium - term, oversupply may make it difficult for the price to rise [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has been disrupted, direct and terminal demand is weak, cost support has weakened, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, short - term short - selling opportunities can be considered, and for coke, focus on selling hedges when the futures price has a premium [1]. **Agricultural Products** - **Palm Oil**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes a decline in crude oil prices, and palm oil is expected to follow suit. In the long run, international oil - fat demand is expected to increase, so a bullish view is taken on far - month contracts [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The near - month fundamentals are weak, but it may show a relatively strong performance due to the influence of palm oil [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long - term, macro uncertainties are high. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. Overall, the domestic cotton price is expected to show a weakly oscillatory downward trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but if crude oil prices continue to be weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar output [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term policy - driven grain releases and a low wheat - corn price difference have a negative impact on the corn market. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and for the far - month CO1 contract, short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the US, the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten. If Sino - US trade policies remain unchanged, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter for soybean meal, and the far - month contract price is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, the overall decline in the futures price is expected to be limited [1]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: With the cooling of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the market returns to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC +'s unexpected production increase and strong short - term consumption in Europe and the US during the peak season are the main influencing factors [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: The downstream demand is showing a weakening trend, the supply - side production is expected to increase, and inventory has slightly increased [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There have been recent device disturbances stimulating the price increase, OPEC's unexpected production increase, the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are under pressure, and attention should be paid to the price adjustments of butadiene and cis - butadiene and the de - stocking progress of synthetic rubber [1]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis continues to weaken, but the crude - oil price remains strong. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of reduction, and the PTA spot market is becoming more abundant, with low replenishment willingness from polyester manufacturers due to profit compression [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The coal price has slightly increased, the future arrival volume of ethylene glycol is large, and the concentrated procurement due to improved polyester sales has an impact on the market [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber warehouse - receipt registration volume is low, and factory maintenance has increased. With a high basis, the cost of short - fiber is closely related to the market [1]. - **Styrene**: The pure - benzene price has slightly recovered, the import volume has decreased, the styrene device load has increased, the styrene inventory is concentrated, and the styrene basis has significantly weakened [1]. - **Urea**: Domestic demand is average, the summer agricultural demand is coming to an end, but the export expectation in the second half of the year is improving [1]. - **PE**: With good macro - sentiment, many maintenance activities, and mainly rigid demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PP**: The maintenance support is limited, orders are mainly for rigid demand, and the anti - involution policy has boosted market sentiment, causing the price to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PVC**: The price of coking coal has increased, the market sentiment is good, the number of maintenance activities has decreased compared to the previous period, but the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Maintenance is nearly over, the spot price has dropped to a low level, the decline in liquid chlorine has eroded the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry, and the number of current warehouse receipts is low. Attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1]. - **LPG**: The July CP prices of propane and butane have both decreased, OPEC + has unexpectedly increased production, the combustion and chemical demand for LPG is in the seasonal off - season, and the spot price decline is slow, so the PG price still has room to fall [1]. **Shipping** - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: There is a pattern of stable current situation and weak future expectations. The freight rate is expected to reach its peak in mid - July, showing an arc - top trend, and the peak - reaching time is advanced. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient capacity deployment [1].

点评：镨钕和镧铈价格同比上涨叠加冶炼分离等加工成本进一步降低增厚业绩。 公司 2025 上半年归母净利润同比高增主要系（1）主要品种价格上涨：2025 年 上半年氧化镨钕/氧化铈/氧化镧均价分别为 42.1/1.05/0.42 万元/吨，分别同比 上升 13.1%/57.2%/9.8%。(2)成本端下滑：根据公司公告，公司深化横纵向对 标提升，冶炼分离及稀土金属加工成本进一步降低。 2025 年 7 月 10 日 公司研究 2025 上半年业绩同比高增，冶炼分离及稀土金属加工成本进一步降低 ——北方稀土（600111.SH）2025 年半年度业绩预增点评 要点 事件： 2025 年 7 月 9 日，北方稀土公告，预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公 司所有者的净利润 9 亿元-9.6 亿元，同比增加 1882.54%到 2014.71%。 推进绿色冶炼升级改造项目，一期进入产线联动调试收尾阶段。公司投资不超过 78 亿元建设"中国北方稀土（集团）高科技股份有限公司冶炼分公司与华美公 司原厂址及附近接壤区域绿色冶炼升级改造项目"，项目建成后，公司具备处理 58.09%REO 混合稀土精矿能力 19.8 万吨/ ...

| L2601收盘价 | 7254 | 7225 | 29 | 0.40% | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2509 收盘价 PP2601 收盘价 | 7278 7034 | 7245 7006 | 33 28 | 0.46% 0.40% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | 7078 | 7045 | 33 | 0.47% | | | L2509-2601 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 20.00% | | | PP2509-2601 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 12.82% | 元/吨 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7100 | 7090 | 10 | 0.14% | | | 华北LDPE膜料现货 | 7170 | 7170 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华北 塑料基差 | -110 | -80 | -30 | 37.50% | | | 华东 pp基差 | 30 | 50 | -20 | -40.00% | | | PE PP非标价格 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东LD ...

因此造成的后果就是若过于强调管控，会使数字化系统变得僵化，审批流程繁琐，让业务部门叫苦不 迭，难以快速响应市场变化。而若过度追求灵活，则可能导致业务管控失控，出现数据混乱、业务流程 不规范等问题，增加企业的运营风险，甚至可能引发合规性问题。 第三，既要降本增效还要员工满意 当前数字化转型已经是企业的一个必答题，但真正做起来却困难重重，因为对于大部分传统企业而言总 是缺乏一个统一的目标，缺乏融合性，造成各部门的关注点不同，比如信息部门考虑更多的是技术实现 的难度，采购部门则考虑的是实现成本，而业务部门则在盘算如何绕过新系统继续原来的工作方式。所 以看似大家都在参与做数字化，但转到什么程度、花多少钱、冒多大风险，却各有各的想法，各有各 的"理想化"，最终演变成了难以调和的矛盾。这些矛盾最终都演变成了企业数字化进程中的"既要还 要"难题。今天老杨就来盘点一下在企业数字化转型建设过程那些"既要还要"的场景。 第一，既要功能强大还要便宜 降本增效是企业数字化转型的重要目标之一，每个企业的老板都希望通过数字化系统优化业务流程、减 少人力成本，比如引进AI系统，员工可能担心被替代或增加工作负担，导致抵触情绪，从而消极付系 ...

能源化工日报 2025-07-10 我们认为当前地缘风险仍有不确定性，虽然 OPEC 略超预期增产，但我们认为当前基本面仍处 于紧平衡，整体原油处于强现实与弱预期的多空博弈当中，建议投资者把握风控，观望处理。 甲醇 2025/07/10 甲醇 原油 2025/07/10 原油早评 能源化工组 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收涨 0.11 美元，涨幅 0.16%，报 68.29 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收涨 0.15 美元，涨幅 0.21%，报 70.18 美元；INE 主力原油期货收涨 9.00 元，涨幅 1.76%， 报 519.7 元。 数据方面：美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存累库 7.07 百万桶至 426.02 百万桶， 环比累库 1.69%；SPR 补库 0.24 百万桶至 403.00 百万桶，环比补库 0.06%；汽油库存去库 2.66 百万桶至 229.47 百万桶，环比去库 1.15%；柴油库存去库 0.83 百万桶至 102.80 百万桶，环 比去库 0.80%；燃料油库存去库 0.45 百万桶至 21.83 百万桶，环比去库 2.03%；航空煤油库 存去库 0.91 百万 ...

Core Insights - International crude oil prices experienced a rebound due to the summer driving season in Europe and the U.S., alongside a weakening dollar, with NYMEX WTI prices rising above $68 per barrel by July 8 [1] - Despite seasonal demand, significant downward pressure on prices is expected in Q3 due to OPEC+'s increasing production plans and the ongoing impact of U.S. tariff policies on global economic growth [1] OPEC+ Production Increase - OPEC+ is significantly increasing production to regain market share, with an agreement reached on July 5 to raise output by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations [2] - A potential meeting on August 3 may approve an additional increase of approximately 550,000 barrels per day for September, bringing total output from key OPEC+ members back to 2.17 million barrels per day [2] - In May, OPEC's production rose to 27.022 million barrels per day, an increase of 184,000 barrels per day from April, with Saudi Arabia and Libya contributing the most to this increase [2] U.S. Production Trends - U.S. crude oil production is projected to grow by 270,000 barrels per day in 2024, averaging 13.2 million barrels per day, a 2.08% increase from 2023 [3] - As of June 27, U.S. production had decreased to 13.433 million barrels per day, down from a record high of 13.631 million barrels per day in December [3] - High-cost shale oil producers are beginning to cut production due to falling prices, with the average breakeven prices in key regions being $62 and $64 per barrel [3] Geopolitical Impact - Recent geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict between Israel and Iran, initially caused spikes in oil prices, but the impact has been short-lived as supply routes have normalized [4] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased by 450,000 barrels per day in June, reaching the highest level in over a year [4] - Structural changes in the energy market, including diversified supply sources and improved strategic reserves, are reducing the traditional dominance of oil-producing countries [4] Demand Concerns - Trade barriers and tariffs are expected to weaken global economic growth, which may suppress oil demand [5] - Forecasts for global oil demand in 2025 have been adjusted by major agencies, with IEA, EIA, and OPEC predicting demand at 103.7627 million, 103.5280 million, and 105.1349 million barrels per day, respectively [6] - Seasonal gasoline consumption in the U.S. has seen a mild recovery, but overall demand during the summer driving season is expected to be lower than previous years [6] Domestic Market Dynamics - In May, China's crude oil imports showed negative growth year-on-year, with a 3% decline month-on-month [7] - Domestic refining profits have increased, leading to a rise in refinery operating rates, while smaller refineries are struggling with low profits [7] - The global oil market is likely to face oversupply, driven by OPEC+'s production increases and the impact of U.S. energy policies [7]