Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a focus on promoting a healthy and high-quality development of the sector [1][8] - The new housing market has seen a slight increase in transaction volume, while the second-hand housing market continues to decline [1][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of local governments effectively utilizing real estate regulatory policies to stabilize market expectations and activate demand [1][8] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The real estate sector's performance was slightly negative, with a 0.1% change last week, while the broader indices saw gains of 1.5% and 1.2% respectively [3] - New housing sales in 36 cities reached 2.966 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 1.6% and a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [3][13] - The second-hand housing market saw a transaction volume of 1.484 million square meters, down 10.7% month-on-month and 8.5% year-on-year [3][20] 2. Inventory and Absorption - The cumulative inventory of new homes in 13 cities is 77.86 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.6% [3][29] - The absorption cycle for new homes is 19.4 months, with variations across city tiers [3][29] 3. Land Market - The land transaction volume in 100 cities was 20.631 million square meters, down 36.3% month-on-month but up 15.3% year-on-year [3][47] - The average land price was 1,326 RMB per square meter, reflecting a significant decrease of 43.8% month-on-month but an increase of 41.7% year-on-year [3][47] 4. Investment Recommendations - For real estate development, recommended companies include China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and Binjiang Group, with a focus on companies with strong shareholder backing [1][8] - In property management, companies like China Resources Vientiane Life and Greentown Service are highlighted for their market capabilities [1][9] - In real estate brokerage, the report recommends Beike and suggests monitoring I Love My Home [1][9]

利好政策预期突然引爆。 7月7日早盘，A股、港股房地产板块突然爆发，北京北辰实业股份一度暴涨超28%，深圳控股最高大涨超 11%，渝开发、沙河股份、南山控股、财信发展强势涨停。消息面上，住建部调研组近日赴广东、浙江两省调 研时指出，要多管齐下稳定预期、激活需求、优化供给、化解风险，更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。 有分析指出，从市场表现来看，6月份重点城市新房及二手房销售环比均实现增长，但同比仍有所下滑，政策 支持力度有望持续加码，7月楼市或延续弱复苏走势。结合更积极的宏观政策基调，房地产行业政策落地节奏 有望加快，一线城市及核心区域政策弹性或超预期。 华泰证券指出，6月13日，国常会提出要"更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳"，释放出强烈的政策发力信号。 结合更积极的宏观政策基调，房地产行业政策落地节奏有望加快，一线城市及核心区域政策弹性或超预期。 集体大涨 7月7日早盘，港股内房股集体走高，北京北辰实业股份一度暴涨超28%，深圳控股也一度涨超11%，融创中 国、华润置地、新城发展、绿城中国等地产股纷纷上涨。 与此同时，A股房地产板块亦多数走强，截至收盘，渝开发、沙河股份、南山控股、财信发展涨停，海泰发展 涨超 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China has shown signs of stabilization in the first half of the year, with both new and second-hand housing transactions increasing year-on-year, particularly in key provinces where second-hand transactions have surpassed new ones [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of the year, the overall transaction volume of new and second-hand homes increased year-on-year, with second-hand home transactions gradually rising [1]. - Major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw significant activity in second-hand home sales, with Shenzhen experiencing over 30% year-on-year growth, while Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou had increases around 20% [1]. - In Beijing, 88,600 second-hand homes were sold in the first half of 2025, marking an 18% increase year-on-year, with over 60% of transactions being homes priced below 5 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Policy Impact - Policies such as lowering the minimum down payment for personal housing loans have significantly reduced purchasing costs, aiding market recovery [3]. - The overall price of second-hand homes in 100 cities fell by 3.6% in the first half of the year, indicating a trend of "price for volume" [3]. - Over 150 policies to optimize housing provident fund policies and 64 related to purchase subsidies were introduced in the first half of the year, effectively releasing demand potential [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The real estate policy environment is expected to remain loose in the second half of the year, with existing policies likely to be further implemented [3]. - Key cities are anticipated to see continued strong second-hand home transaction volumes due to significant housing demand, particularly among young people and new citizens [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is intensifying efforts to stabilize the real estate market, emphasizing the importance of local governments in implementing effective policies to promote recovery and growth in the sector [2][6]. Group 1: Government Actions and Policies - The State Council has mandated greater efforts to halt the decline in the real estate market, with recent actions including a research group visiting Guangdong and Zhejiang to analyze market conditions and gather feedback [2]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has highlighted the need for local governments to take responsibility and utilize their policy autonomy to implement targeted measures [2][7]. - The government aims to enhance the quality of housing, focusing on safety, comfort, and sustainability, while also stabilizing expectations, activating demand, optimizing supply, and mitigating risks [2][4]. Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - According to the China Index Academy, the real estate market showed signs of recovery in early 2025, with new home prices in monitored cities rising by 1.16% in the first half of the year, although the growth rate has slowed compared to the previous period [5]. - The second-hand housing market has seen a cumulative price decline of 3.60%, with prices continuing to drop for 38 consecutive months, despite a high level of activity in transactions [5][6]. - Key provinces like Guangdong and Zhejiang have shown resilience, with new home transaction areas increasing year-on-year, indicating a stable market foundation despite national sales declines [3][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The report anticipates that local governments will actively implement existing policies to further stabilize the real estate market, including enhancing urban renewal and financial support for housing projects [8]. - Focused efforts will be made to improve financing mechanisms and stimulate demand in major cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen, which are critical to the overall market recovery [8].

推动房地产市场平稳、健康、高质量发展，既是稳住经济基本盘的关键抓手，也是构建新发展格局的必 然要求。 从今年上半年的情况来看，持续落实房地产政策"组合拳"也取得了一定成效，房地产市场已经呈现出一 些积极变化，但仍面临诸多挑战。 中指研究院发布的上半年中国房地产行业数据显示，房地产市场的三个重要指标显示要推动房地产市场 平稳发展，还需要在稳定市场预期的同时，继续推出更多止跌回稳的政策。 从市场供求来看，2025年以来，核心城市新房市场整体平稳，一季度延续修复，二季度边际转弱，二手 房在"以价换量"下成交持续增长，重点城市新房可售库存下降，出清周期缩短。从房价来看，2025年1 —5月，百城二手住宅价格累计下跌2.88%，其中5月环比下跌0.71%，跌幅扩大；同期，受优质改善项 目带动，百城新房价格累计上涨0.97%。从土地市场来看，截至6月25日，300城宅地出让金同比增长 24.5%，但成交面积下降约7%，TOP20城市住宅用地出让金占全国66%；一季度，北京、杭州、成都多 次刷新地价，推动3月300城平均溢价率达18%；二季度以来，地块供应减少、房企趋于审慎，土地市场 降温，央国企仍为主要拿地主体。 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guangzhou is seeking public opinion on the implementation of a new policy allowing the conversion of commercial housing loans to housing provident fund loans, aimed at easing the financial burden on homebuyers and stimulating the housing market [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Details - The proposed policy, referred to as "commercial to public loan" (商转公贷款), allows individuals to convert their outstanding commercial housing loan balances into housing provident fund loans when the personal housing loan rate falls below 75% [4]. - The policy stipulates that if the personal housing loan rate reaches 85% or above, control measures such as loan limits and appointment applications may be implemented, and if it reaches 90% or above, the conversion will be suspended [4]. - The loan amount for the conversion will be determined based on the city's provident fund loan policies and cannot exceed 60% of the total purchase price of the property [6][7]. Group 2: Market Context - Current interest rates for commercial housing loans in Guangzhou are approximately 3.2%, while the first home provident fund loan rate is 2.6%, indicating a 60 basis point difference [5]. - In the first half of 2025, Guangzhou saw 30,871 new housing transactions, with an average price of 35,200 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 2.8% increase compared to the previous period [9]. - The central government has emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market, indicating a shift in policy focus towards consumer support and cost reduction [9]. Group 3: Eligibility Criteria - To qualify for the "commercial to public loan," applicants must currently contribute to the housing provident fund in Guangzhou and have not previously utilized provident fund loans nationwide [8]. - The policy primarily targets homeowners with only commercial loans for their primary residences, particularly younger buyers or new residents who previously could not access provident fund loans [8].

招商蛇口 20250625 摘要 招商蛇口 2025 年销售策略侧重提升去化率，总可售货值预计 3,300 亿 元。公司通过加快存货去化和核心城市布局，优化资产结构，但未提供 明确销售指引，销售额将取决于去化表现。 招商蛇口 2025 年加大补货力度，视其为重要窗口期，1-5 月投资强度 显著提升。策略基于核心城市优质土地供应增加、公司资金面良好及存 在获取优质大型项目机会。 招商蛇口认为核心城市房地产市场具备止跌回稳基础，新房价格回调幅 度大，品质提升，需求释放。前端数据表现出较强韧性，预计 2025 年 市场将止跌回稳。 招商蛇口 2025 年资产端加快盘活和资金周转，提升资产质量；负债端 优化债务结构，降低资金成本。2024 年融资成本为 2.99%，公司希望 保持融资成本优势。 2025 年 5 月统计局数据显示新房价格面临调整压力，可能与优质新房 项目上市对老旧房源价格形成挤压有关。核心城市及区位较好项目价格 未出现边际走强或短期打折情况。 Q&A 2025 年中国房地产市场，特别是核心城市的表现呈现出哪些主要特征和波动？ 2025 年以来，中国房地产市场，特别是核心城市的数据表现出止跌回稳的特 征 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of real estate companies in the first half of 2025 shows signs of stabilization, with nearly 45% of the top 100 companies experiencing year-on-year growth, although challenges remain due to buyer confidence and inventory pressures [1][9][13]. Group 1: Sales Performance - The cumulative sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies from January to May 2025 was 13,137.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, while the total sales amount was 14,113 billion yuan, down 8.4% [3]. - The threshold for the top 10 companies in terms of total sales increased to 43.26 billion yuan, an 8.1% rise year-on-year, contrasting with a 13.1% decrease in the threshold for the top 20 companies, which fell to 15.15 billion yuan [4]. - Among the top 100 companies, 45% reported year-on-year growth, with 20 companies achieving growth rates exceeding 30% [9]. Group 2: Company Classification and Performance - In the top 100 companies, there are 47 private enterprises, a decrease of one compared to the entire year of 2024. Only one private company is in the top 10, indicating a trend where capital favors state-owned and large enterprises amid ongoing liquidity crises for many private firms [6]. - The performance of state-owned enterprises is notably stronger, with 70% of central enterprises and 53% of state-owned enterprises reporting growth, compared to only 38% of mixed-ownership companies and 32% of private companies [9]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The market is in a phase of bottoming out, with local policies being optimized and some restrictions being eased in key cities, signaling a potential stabilization in the real estate market [13]. - Despite the positive signals, challenges remain as buyer confidence is still recovering, and companies face increasing inventory pressures, necessitating proactive measures in marketing and product innovation to capture market opportunities [13].

房地产市场回暖了吗？当然没有！如果按照今年上半年几个月的楼市态势，还真有希望，不过刚过去的月份显示，楼市又出现了下行波动。 官方给出的解读是，今年以来，随着各项稳定房地产政策的加快落实，房地产市场持续朝着止跌回稳的方向发展。但需要注意的是，房地产市场仍处于调整 过程中，市场信心有待持续修复，市场供求关系也有待改善，要实现房地产止跌回稳还需要继续努力。 所以，这才是最客观的说法，楼市向好也罢，没有回暖也罢，其实都是对的，尽管向好，也并没有达到预期，也就意味着楼市要想回暖还有很长的路要走。 就在刚刚，6月24日新华社消息，央行等六部门联合发布《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》，《意见》指出，要夯实宏观经济金融基础，支持居 民就业增收，优化保险保障，积极培育消费需求，共19项重点举措。这些措施的实施将有助于释放消费潜力，促进经济健康发展。 虽然并非针对房地产的政策，但是如果经济能够得到持续恢复，那么将与房地产形成良好的互动关系，相辅相成。而且接下来的细则中一定会有跟房地产直 接有关的利好政策出台，这是毫无疑问的。 这一轮房价下调从2021年7月下行周期开启已长达4年，那么这种调整什么时候会止跌回稳呢？2025 ...

Group 1 - The overall trend of the real estate market is expected to stabilize by 2025, with a focus on "stopping the decline and stabilizing" rather than allowing significant price increases [3][4] - Short-term fluctuations in the market are normal and do not alter the main trajectory of the real estate sector [1][3] - The government is likely to continue implementing policies aimed at stabilizing the market, with expectations that over 95% of cities will lift or significantly relax restrictive purchasing policies by the end of 2025 [6][8] Group 2 - The real estate market is showing signs of improvement, with May data indicating positive year-on-year changes, although month-on-month fluctuations remain [4][6] - The competition among real estate companies is intensifying, leading to increased industry concentration, while some companies are expected to recover their credit ratings due to supportive financial policies [8] - There is a growing enthusiasm among developers to acquire land, with major cities launching quality residential land parcels to stimulate market activity [8][10]