交银国际研究 宏观策略 2025 年 5 月 7 日 中国宏观 一揽子金融政策简评：三大金融部门联手稳预期、提信心 2025 年 5 月 7 日，"五一"假期后，国务院新闻办公室宣布一揽子重磅金融政 策，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证监会负责人出席会议，并 介绍具体措施。本次金融政策支持举措的落地也是今年 4 月中央政治局会议精 神的传达和落实（参见此前报告），会议提出适时降准降息、创设新的结构性 货币政策工具，以及一系列稳预期、提信心的具体举措均实现了快速的落实。 本次金融政策组合拳覆盖货币政策、资本市场、房地产市场以及实体经济等多 个领域。从政策内容看，既有短期纾困举措，也有长期制度安排；既有总量政 策，也有结构性工具，形成了全方位、多层次的政策支持体系。预计本次政策 组合将对稳定市场预期、提振市场信心、支持实体经济发展产生积极影响。同 时，中美经贸关系出现积极转变，双方重启谈判渠道，利好提振市场风险情 绪，为港股市场带来正面催化。具体来看： 中国人民银行：降准、降息，精准宽松 中国人民银行行长潘功胜宣布全面降准、降息组合拳。此次降准 0.5 个百分点 释放长期流动性约 1 万亿元人民币（下同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has introduced a comprehensive monetary policy package aimed at increasing long-term liquidity supply and maintaining market liquidity through measures such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [2][3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Measures - The RRR has been lowered by 0.5 percentage points, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [2]. - The reserve requirement ratio for auto finance and financial leasing companies will be reduced from 5% to 0% [3]. - The policy interest rate has been decreased by 0.1 percentage points, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate dropping from 1.5% to 1.4%, likely leading to a similar decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3]. - Structural monetary policy rates have been cut by 0.25 percentage points, including various special policy rates and the agricultural and small business re-lending rate, from 1.75% to 1.5% [3]. - The personal housing provident fund loan rate has been reduced by 0.25 percentage points, with the 5-year and above first home loan rate decreasing from 2.85% to 2.6% [3]. - An additional 300 billion yuan has been allocated for technology innovation and technological transformation re-lending, increasing the total from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan [4]. - A new 500 billion yuan re-lending facility for service consumption and elderly care has been established to encourage banks to increase credit support in these areas [4]. - The re-lending quota for agricultural and small business support has been increased by 300 billion yuan, complementing the reduction in re-lending rates [4]. Group 2: Impact on Consumption and Investment - The new policies are expected to stimulate domestic consumption, reducing reliance on international trade, and addressing issues related to healthcare, elderly care, and housing [4]. - Lower interest rates on loans for renovations and car purchases, along with faster loan approvals for small businesses, are anticipated to benefit borrowers [5]. - The reduction in financing costs for enterprises is expected to enhance their development, stabilize employment, and ensure residents' income stability [6]. - The release of liquidity is seen as beneficial for the stock market, particularly in the financial and technology sectors, as well as the bond market [7]. Group 3: Future Policy Directions - The PBOC plans to continue implementing moderately loose monetary policies, adjusting based on domestic and international economic conditions and financial market operations [8]. - There is potential for expanding the scale of existing tools, improving policy elements, or creating new policy instruments in response to economic performance [8].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a series of macro monetary policy measures aimed at addressing structural economic issues and stimulating domestic demand through targeted financial support [1][2][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Adjustments - The PBOC has lowered the structural monetary policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, reducing it from 1.75% to 1.5% for various special structural policies and from 2.25% to 2% for mortgage supplementary loans [2][3]. - This marks the first comprehensive reduction of structural monetary policy tool rates by the PBOC, which includes long-term tools like agricultural and small business re-loans as well as short-term tools for carbon reduction and housing support [3][4]. Group 2: New Policy Tools - A new re-loan tool of 500 billion yuan has been established to support service consumption and elderly care, aimed at encouraging banks to increase credit support in these sectors [5][6]. - This new tool is an expansion and upgrade of the previous inclusive elderly care re-loan policy, which initially had a quota of 40 billion yuan and was piloted before being rolled out nationwide [8][9]. Group 3: Increased Quotas for Existing Tools - The quotas for two existing structural monetary policy tools have been increased by 300 billion yuan each: the quota for technology innovation and technical transformation re-loans has risen from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan [10][11]. - The increase in quotas for agricultural and small business re-loans is expected to enhance support for inclusive finance, particularly for rural, small, and private enterprises [14]. Group 4: Optimization of Existing Tools - The PBOC has merged the quotas of two tools—stock repurchase and securities, fund, and insurance company swap convenience—totaling 800 billion yuan to improve usability and flexibility for different types of institutions [15][16]. - As of now, the swap convenience has conducted two operations totaling 105 billion yuan, and over 500 listed companies have announced the use of loans for stock repurchases, amounting to nearly 300 billion yuan [17].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, which includes monetary policy measures from the People's Bank of China (PBOC), regulatory policies from the financial regulatory authority, and market stabilization strategies from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) [2][6][14]. Monetary Policy Measures by PBOC - The PBOC will lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [3]. - The reserve requirement ratio for auto finance and financial leasing companies will be reduced from 5% to 0% [4]. - The policy interest rate will be decreased by 0.1 percentage points, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate dropping from 1.5% to 1.4%, likely leading to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [4]. - The interest rates for various structural monetary policy tools will be lowered by 0.25 percentage points, including special structural tools and re-lending rates [4]. - The personal housing provident fund loan rate will be reduced by 0.25 percentage points, with the five-year and above first home loan rate decreasing from 2.85% to 2.6% [4]. - An additional 300 billion yuan will be allocated for technology innovation and technological transformation re-lending, increasing the total from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan [4]. - A new 500 billion yuan "service consumption and elderly care re-lending" will be established to encourage banks to increase credit support for these sectors [5]. - The re-lending quota for agriculture and small enterprises will be increased by 300 billion yuan, supporting banks in expanding loans to these sectors [5]. - The PBOC will optimize two capital market support tools, merging 500 billion yuan for securities fund insurance company swaps and 300 billion yuan for stock repurchase re-lending into a total of 800 billion yuan [5]. - A risk-sharing tool for technology innovation bonds will be created, allowing the PBOC to provide low-cost re-lending to support the issuance of these bonds [5]. Regulatory Policies by Financial Regulatory Authority - The financial regulatory authority will introduce eight incremental policies to enhance the implementation of existing policies and support the real estate market [7]. - A series of financing systems will be developed to align with new real estate development models [8]. - The scope for long-term investment by insurance funds will be expanded to inject more incremental capital into the market [8]. - Regulatory rules will be adjusted to lower the investment risk factors for insurance companies in stock investments [9]. - A comprehensive policy package will be launched to support financing for small and private enterprises [10]. - Policies will be developed to support foreign trade development, particularly for entities affected by tariffs [10]. - The management of merger loans will be revised to facilitate industry transformation [11]. - Financial asset investment companies will be established to enhance investment in technology innovation enterprises [12]. - High-quality development opinions for technology insurance will be formulated to support risk-sharing and compensation [13]. Market Stabilization Strategies by CSRC - The CSRC will focus on consolidating market stability while enhancing market vitality and functionality [14]. - Measures will be introduced to deepen reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [15]. - The CSRC will promote the development of technology innovation bonds and optimize the issuance process [15]. - Efforts will be made to increase the participation of long-term funds in the market [16]. - Strategies will be implemented to support the real estate market and stock market stability, including increasing insurance fund investments [17][18]. - Specific measures will be introduced to assist listed companies in coping with the impacts of tariffs [19].

"这项工具也是人民银行支持提振消费的一项创新举措，额度是5000亿元。"他说，这次创设并加力实施 系列结构性货币政策工具，既有数量的增加，也有价格的优惠，更好发挥了结构性货币政策工具的牵引 和带动作用。 潘功胜提到，从传统意义上讲，货币政策主要是总量工具，但在中国经济运行中，大家都十分清楚，很 多矛盾和挑战是结构性的，结构调不好，总量调控也很难发挥有效作用。结构性货币政策工具有助于推 动解决一些结构性的矛盾和问题。这些年来，人民银行在实践中不断地探索，按照"聚焦重点、合理适 度、有进有退"的原则，先后创设了多项结构性货币政策工具，目前形成了总量工具为主、结构性工具 为补充的货币政策调控框架。 他举例，到4月末，存续的结构性政策工具共9项，主要聚焦于国民经济重点领域、重大战略和薄弱环 节，存量余额约5.9万亿元，占人民银行资产负债表规模的13%，处于合理水平。 南都讯记者潘珊菊发自北京5月7日，在国新办新闻发布会上，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、 中国证券监督管理委员会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。 关于如何创设并加力实施结构性货币政策工具，央行行长潘功胜介绍，设立5000亿元的服 ...

中国人民银行行长潘功胜5月7日在国新办新闻发布会上宣布，将设立5000亿元服务消费与养老再贷款，加大消费重点领域低成本资金支持。 记者注意到，4月25日召开的中央政治局会议上已明确要设立服务消费与养老再贷款。业内专家表示，新政策工具将激发服务消费和养老市场活力：一方 面，可进一步激发国内服务消费潜力，促进扩大服务消费供给、提振服务消费需求；另一方面，可支持养老产业发展，也有利于完善养老保障，在更长期限 中释放居民消费潜力。 新政策工具是对前期普惠养老专项再贷款政策的扩容和升级。2022年4月，人民银行设立普惠养老专项再贷款，额度400亿元，先期以试点方式开展，后拓展 至全国。新政策工具额度更大，支持领域更广，利率更低，在全国范围内均适用，是对普惠养老专项再贷款政策的扩容升级，体现了货币政策对消费、养老 等领域的支持力度。 结构性降息也是降息，有利于强化对商业银行的政策激励作用。央行官方数据显示，截至2025年1季度末，结构性货币政策工具余额5.9万亿元，是央行重要 的基础货币投放渠道。此次降低利率0.25个百分点，有利于强化对商业银行的政策激励，进一步发挥结构性货币政策工具对商业银行的牵引带动作用，激励 商业 ...

5月7日，国新办新闻发布会举行。中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证券监督管理委员会负 责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，并答记者问。 潘功胜 中国人民银行行长 ▶ 央行发布3类10项措施 一是数量型政策，通过降准等措施，加大中长期流动性供给，保持市场流动性充裕。二是价格型政策， 下调政策利率，降低结构性货币政策工具利率，同时调降公积金贷款利率。三是结构型政策，创设并加 力实施结构性货币政策工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、普惠金融等领域。 ▶ 降准又降息！下调个人住房公积金贷款利率 ▶ 合并两项支持资本市场货币政策工具额度，共8000亿元 优化两项支持资本市场货币政策工具，将5000亿元证券基金保险公司互换便利，和3000亿元股票增持回 购再贷款两个工具的额度合并，总额度变为8000亿元。 ▶ 外部冲击下国内金融市场保持稳健 今年一季度金融市场表现良好，股市运行总体平稳，交易标准质量较高。在经济基本面改善的带动下， 市场自我矫正能力增强，人民币对美元汇率去年末小幅升值1%左右。 ▶ 央行将创设科技创新债券风险分担工具 潘功胜宣布，将创设科技创新债券风险分担工具。 ▶ 4月以来金融市场展现 ...

5月7日金融三部委新闻发布会前瞻 首先，盘前9点开会非常罕见，而且这个用的是"负责人"而没用"有关负责人"，可能指的是一把手。 上次这种规格，是2024年9月24新闻发布会，释放了降准降息、稳股市结构性货币政策工具、放松地产首付比例、 降低存量房贷利率等重磅政策。 结合这次的情况，可以预期至少降准是得有的，降息可能不太好说，因为之前我转发您一个央行专家的调研，表 示最优先的政策是降准。 第二，这次会议召开于4月PMI发布之后，经济初步出现走弱迹象，所以肯定得有总量性政策推出。 结合这次的情况， 5月7日金融三部委新闻发布会前瞻 另一方面，目前银行净息差也很紧张，可能会到1.35%以下，所以预计即使有降息，幅度大概率也会在10bps。 第三，发布会可能介绍新型政策性金融工具的细节，根据发改委主任上次的表述，应该是支持基建或产业投资 的，用于补充资本金，预计将带动固定资产投资增速走高。 第四，央行应该会介绍设立服务消费与养老再贷款有关举措，但是这个预计是支持服务类企业扩大经营，支持养 老基础设施或机构建设与发展，对宏观角度而言意义有限，有关行业可能会反映，但是行业层面的影响我不专 业。 首先，盘前9点开会非常罕见 ...

Market Performance - On May 7, major indices opened significantly higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.35%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.91% [1] - The leading sectors included brokerage, military industry, and real estate, while financial technology, data elements, AI applications, photolithography factories, cross-border payments, low-altitude economy, servers, computing power, and photovoltaic concept stocks showed active performance [1] Policy Impact - The recent market opening surge is likely influenced by new policies announced by the People's Bank of China (PBOC), which includes optimizing two monetary policy tools to support the capital market, combining a 500 billion yuan swap facility for securities, funds, and insurance companies with a 300 billion yuan stock repurchase loan, totaling 800 billion yuan [2][4] - The PBOC also announced a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, and a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy interest rates [4][5] Economic Outlook - Analysts from JD Group indicated that as the second quarter progresses, China’s economy will face significant challenges due to the impact of tariff shocks and the diminishing effects of certain stimulus policies [6] - They emphasized the importance of enhancing the effectiveness of fiscal policies, particularly by focusing on investments in human capital to strengthen policy stimulus effects and promote economic structural transformation [6] International Trade Relations - The European Union (EU) has expressed readiness to respond to the U.S. imposition of tariffs on EU imports, with the EU Trade Commissioner stating that the U.S. tariffs cover 70% of EU exports to the U.S., potentially rising to 97% following further investigations [7] - U.S. Treasury Secretary defended the administration's tariff policies, claiming they would reinforce the U.S. position as a global capital destination, although many industry executives expressed concerns over the adverse effects of aggressive tariffs on investment plans [8][9]

央行副行长邹澜说，正在研究丰富政策工具箱，将适时推出增量政策。这个工具箱里有什么，邹澜没有具体点出来，但是我们可以通过前 两天的中央政治局会议的部署来看，这个工具箱里至少包括创设新的结构性货币政策工具，设立新型政策性金融工具，设立服务消费与养老再 贷款，创新推出债券市场的"科技板"等等。 这场发布会也给民营企业融资带来了更多信心。邹澜表示要扩大民营企业债券融资规模、推广"两新" 债务融资工具。这就意味着民营企 业融资选择更多了，过去民营企业融资主要靠银行贷款，风险集中。现在通过债券融资，企业能直接面向市场筹资，降低成本、优化结构。 听完发布会，老王能看到政策层面展现出的系统性和前瞻性，各项政策环环相扣、协同发力，既解决当下贸易摩擦带来的困境，又为经济 高质量发展奠定基础。 邹澜的表态尽管不长，但明确传递了一个信号，就是无论外部环境如何，我们都有充足的预案，这既稳定了国内预期，也提振了市场信 心。 在美国滥施关税的当下，外贸企业，特别是众多民营中小企业怎么办？邹澜明确不抽贷、不断贷，尤其是对外贸依存度高、暂时遇到困 难、产品有竞争力的中小企业，给遇到资金困难的企业送了一颗 "定心丸" 。 央视网消息：4月28日 ...