更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：刘洋 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F3063825 期货交易咨询号：Z0016580 格林大华期货中国宏观经济月报 从业资格：F0276812 2025年05月29日 中国宏观经济月报 1-4月全国固定资产投资同比增长4.0%，1-3月份为4.2% 来源:wind,格林大华 1-4月份，全国固定资产投资同比增长4.0%，市场预期4.26%，1-3月份为4.2%。分类来看，1-4月广义基建 投资（含电力）同比增长10.85%，市场预期增长10.0%，1-3月增长11.5%。1-4月制造业投资同比增长8.8%， 市场预期增长9.1%，1-3月增长9.1%。1-4月份，全国房地产开发投资同比下降10.3%，1-3月下降9.9%。高 技术产业中，信息服务业，计算机及办公设备制造业，航空、航天器及设备制造业，专业技术服务业投资 同比分别增长40.6%、28.9%、23.9%、17.6%。1-4月份设备购置投资增长18.2%，增长贡献率达到64.5%。 2 1-4月份，全国新建商品房销售面积同比下降2.8% 来源:wi ...

Core Insights - The overall economic performance of Jiangmen in the first four months of 2025 is characterized as "generally stable, under pressure" with key indicators showing positive growth despite a decline in fixed asset investment [2] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value of Jiangmen increased by 2.7% year-on-year, although the growth rate slowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter [3] - The manufacturing sector saw a 3.9% increase in added value, while the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector experienced a decline of 3.4% [3] - Among 21 major industrial products, 16 categories maintained positive growth, with notable increases in stainless steel daily products (52,400 tons), motorcycles (1.6179 million units), and aluminum materials (91,400 tons), all exceeding 20% growth [3] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in Jiangmen decreased by over 24% year-on-year, with the decline rate widening by 2.9 percentage points compared to the first quarter [4] - State-owned investment fell by 27.6%, while private investment decreased by 20.3% [4] - Investment in the real estate sector dropped by 25.6%, with a 10.6% decrease in the area under construction and a 20% decline in sales area [4] Foreign Trade - Jiangmen's foreign trade showed a positive trend with a total import and export value of over 63 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [5] - Exports amounted to over 54.3 billion yuan, growing by 10.3%, while imports decreased by nearly 9% to 9.04 billion yuan [5] - Actual foreign investment reached 753 million yuan, marking a significant increase of 66.7% [5] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in Jiangmen reached 40.995 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.4%, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter [7] - Urban retail sales grew by 2.5%, while rural sales increased by 2.1% [7] - Local general public budget revenue for the first four months was 8.302 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [7]

（文章来源：新华财经） 1至4月，成都市社会消费品零售总额3644.6亿元，同比增长6.1%。按经营单位所在地分，城镇消费品零 售额3204.6亿元，增长6.1%；乡村消费品零售额440.0亿元，增长6.4%。 按消费类型分，餐饮收入449.3亿元，同比增长4.5%；商品零售3195.3亿元，增长6.4%。从热点商品 看，限额以上企业（单位）通讯器材类零售额同比增长125.0%，金银珠宝类增长19.7%，家用电器和音 像器材类增长19.1%，体育娱乐用品类增长17.5%，粮油食品饮料烟酒类增长14.4%。 此外，1至4月，成都市外贸进出口总额2759.8亿元，同比增长11.2%。其中，出口总额1610.8亿元，增 长11.9%；进口总额1149.0亿元，增长10.1%。 新华财经成都5月23日电 成都市统计局23日发布数据显示，今年1至4月，成都市规模以上工业增加值同 比（下同）增长8.1%。分经济类型看，集体企业增长24.9%，股份制企业增长6.0%。 分行业看，37个大类行业中有25个行业增加值实现增长。其中，汽车制造业增长27.4%，计算机、通信 和其他电子设备制造业增长18.8%，电气机械和器材制造业 ...

| 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周四国债期货主力合约开盘集体高开，早盘震荡略有下行，午后横向波动，截至收 盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2509 下跌 0.04%，10 年期 T2509 上涨 0.01%，5 年 | | | | | 期 TF2509 持平，2 年期 TS2509 持平。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周四央行开展了 1545 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当日有 645 亿元逆回 | | | | | 购到期，当日实现净投放 900 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周四银行间资金市场短期利率较上一交易日小幅下行，DR001 全天加 | | | | | 权平均为 1.48%，上一交易日加权平均 1.51%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.57%，上一 | | | | | 交易日加权平均 1.57%。 | | | | | 3、现券市场：周四银行间国债现券收盘收益率较上一交易日窄幅波动，2 年期国债 | | | | TL、T、 | 到期收益率上行 0 ...

证券研究报告 商贸零售 行业点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 21 日 证券分析师 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 4 月社零整体同增 5.1%。4 月社会消费品零售总额为 37174 亿元，同比增长 5.1%。 除汽车外社会消费品零售总额为 33548 亿元，同比增长 5.6%。分区域来看，4 月城 镇/乡村消费品零售总额分别实现 32376/4798 亿元，分别同比+5.2%/+4.7%。 联系人 分消费类型看，餐饮零售额增速略快于商品。4 月限额以上单位消费品零售额为 14992 亿元，同比增长 6.3%。分类型来看，4 月限额以上商品零售/餐饮收入总额分 别为 13762/1230 亿元，同比+6.6%/+3.7%；4 月商品零售/餐饮收入总额分别为 33007/4167 亿元，同比+5.1%/+5.2%。 周宸宇 zhouchenyu@huayuanstock.com 王悦 wangyue03@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 2025 年 4 月社零数据点评 ...

Economic Growth - Sichuan province's industrial added value increased by 7.1% year-on-year from January to April, outpacing the national growth rate by 0.7% [2] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 928.59 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, also exceeding the national average by 0.6% [2] Industry Performance - Out of 41 major industries, 35 reported growth in added value [2] - The automotive manufacturing industry saw a significant increase of 22.3% year-on-year [2] - Chemical raw materials and products manufacturing grew by 20.0% [2] - The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing sector increased by 15.0% [2] - Black metal smelting and rolling processing industry grew by 14.9% [2] - Electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing rose by 10.6% [2] Industrial Product Output - Natural gas production increased by 9.4% year-on-year [2] - Power generation grew by 4.1% [2] - Smart watch production surged by 92.7% [2] - Generator sets production increased by 73.1% [2] - Lithium-ion battery output rose by 66.7% [2] - Automobile production grew by 35.6% [2] - Industrial boiler output increased by 28.3% [2] - Integrated circuit production rose by 15.7% [2] - Color television production increased by 14.9% [2] - Smartphone production grew by 12.4% [2] Investment Trends - The product sales rate for industrial enterprises above designated size was 94.6% [3] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 3.2% year-on-year [3] - Investment in the primary industry grew by 20.5% [3] - Investment in the secondary industry increased by 15.7%, with industrial investment rising by 15.9% [3] - Investment in the tertiary industry declined by 2.6% [3] Real Estate Development - Real estate development investment decreased by 6.8% year-on-year [4] - The construction area of commercial housing fell by 12.6% [4] - The sales area of newly built commercial housing declined by 7.4% [4] Consumer Spending - Restaurant revenue reached 130.32 billion yuan, growing by 4.6% year-on-year [4] - Retail sales of goods amounted to 798.27 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4% [4] - E-commerce sales from above-designated size enterprises reached 67.14 billion yuan, increasing by 27.1% [4] Hot Product Categories - Retail sales of communication equipment from above-designated size enterprises surged by 79.2% [4] - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment grew by 16.4% [4] - Retail sales of grain, oil, and food increased by 13.0% [4] - Beverage retail sales rose by 12.7% [4] - Retail sales of cultural and office supplies grew by 10.5% [4]

本文全文共 2605 字，阅读全文约 8 分钟 2025年4月份社会消费品零售总额增长5.1% 2025年1—4月份全国固定资产投资增长4.0% 2025年4月份规模以上工业增加值增长6.1% 2025年4月份能源生产情况 2025年4月份社会消费品零售总额增长5.1% 4月份，社会消费品零售总额37174亿元，同比增长5.1%。其中， 除汽车以外的消费品零售额33548亿元，增长5.6% 。1—4月份，社会消费品零售总额161845亿 元，增长4.7%。其中， 除汽车以外的消费品零售额147005亿元，增长5.2% 。 点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 按经营单位所在地分，4月份，城镇消费品零售额32376亿元，同比增长5.2%；乡村消费品零售额4798亿元，增长4.7%。1—4月份，城镇消费品零售额140433亿 元，增长4.7%；乡村消费品零售额21412亿元，增长4.8%。 按消费类型分，4月份，商品零售额33007亿元，同比增长5.1%；餐饮收入4167亿元，增长5.2%。1—4月份，商品零售额143651亿元，增长4.7%；餐饮收入 18194亿元，增长4.8%。 按零售业态分，1—4月份，限额以上 ...

Group 1: Industrial Growth - Sichuan's industrial added value increased by 7.1% year-on-year from January to April, with state-owned enterprises growing by 8.1% and joint-stock enterprises by 6.4% [1] - Among 41 major industries, 35 experienced growth, with notable increases in automotive manufacturing (22.3%), chemical raw materials and products (20.0%), and computer and electronic equipment manufacturing (15.0%) [1] - Key industrial product outputs included natural gas (9.4%), electricity generation (4.1%), and significant growth in smartwatches (92.7%), generators (73.1%), and lithium-ion batteries (66.7%) [1] Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in Sichuan grew by 3.2% year-on-year from January to April, with the primary industry seeing a 20.5% increase and the secondary industry growing by 15.7% [1] - Industrial investment specifically rose by 15.9% during the same period [1] Group 3: Consumer Retail - Sichuan's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 928.59 billion yuan, marking a 5.3% year-on-year increase [2] - Urban retail sales accounted for 753.51 billion yuan (5.2% growth), while rural retail sales were 175.07 billion yuan (5.9% growth) [2] - Notable growth in retail categories included communication equipment (79.2%), household appliances (16.4%), and food products (13.0%) [2]

| 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周一国债期货主力合约开盘集体高开，早盘震荡上行，午后多为横盘整理、超长期 品种则连续上涨，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2506 上涨 0.37%，10 年期 T2506 上涨 0.13%，5 年期 TF2506 上涨 0.04%，2 年期 TS2509 上涨 0.02%。 【重要资讯】 1、公开市场：周一央行开展了 1350 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率为 1.40%， | | | | | 当日有 430 亿元逆回购到期，当日实现净投放 920 亿元。 2、资金市场：周一银行间资金市场短期利率较上一交易日下行，DR001 全天加权平 均为 1.54%，上一交易日加权平均 1.63%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.60%，上一交易 日加权平均 1.64%。 | | 宏观与金 | | TL、T、 TF、TS | 3、现券市场：周一银行间国债现券收盘收益率较上一交易日多数下行，2 年期国债 到期收益率下行 1.04 个 BP 至 1.46%，5 年期下行 0.9 ...

Group 1 - In April, China's national economy showed stable growth in production and demand, with a generally stable employment situation and the emergence of new growth drivers, indicating a resilient economic performance under pressure [1][2] - The industrial production saw a rapid increase, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises growing by 6.1% year-on-year in April. Notably, the equipment manufacturing sector and high-tech manufacturing sector grew by 9.8% and 10.0% respectively [1] - The production of specific products such as 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles increased significantly, with year-on-year growth rates of 60.7%, 51.5%, and 38.9% respectively [1] Group 2 - Market sales experienced stable growth, with the total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 37,174 billion yuan in April, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. The policy of replacing old consumer goods with new ones has shown positive effects [1] - The retail sales of household appliances, audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture increased significantly, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.8%, 33.5%, and 26.9% respectively [1] - Fixed asset investment continued to expand, with a total of 147,024 billion yuan in investment (excluding rural households) in the first four months, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.0%. Excluding real estate development investment, the growth rate was 8.0% [1] Group 3 - The total value of goods import and export reached 38,391 billion yuan in April, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. Exports alone amounted to 22,645 billion yuan, growing by 9.3% [1] - In the first four months, the total value of goods import and export was 141,389 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.4% [1]