从供给端来看，相较国内成品油供需宽松状态，东南亚成品油市场存在较大缺口。根据Platts数据， 2020-2023年期间，受公共卫生事件和能源结构转型的影响，东南亚和澳洲地区已有超过3000万吨的炼 能退出市场。根据IEA数据，2025年是炼油厂关闭的高峰年份，总计有80万桶/日的产能将停止运行，随 着产能的持续出清，预计到2026年，东南亚成品油供需缺口将继续扩大至6800万吨。 5月14日，恒逸石化（000703）举行2024年年度网上业绩说明会。在此之前，恒逸石化披露2024年年报 和2025年一季报显示，公司2024年实现营业总收入1254.63亿元，归母净利润2.34亿元；2025年一季度实 现营业收入271.68亿元，归母净利润5149.48万元。 恒逸石化的主要业务包括炼化板块、PTA板块及聚酯板块。恒逸石化董事长、总裁邱奕博在业绩说明会 上介绍说，炼化板块方面，公司文莱炼化项目位于文莱，其生产的成品油主要在东南亚及澳洲等地销 售。从需求端来看，东南亚是全球最大的成品油净进口市场，该地区GDP增速大幅高于全球平均水平， 在石油需求增长方面展现出强劲潜力。从供给端来看，东南亚成品油市场存在较大缺口 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of China's acrylonitrile industry is driven by both state-owned enterprises and private companies, with production capacity expected to continue expanding in 2024 due to upstream raw material growth and downstream demand [2]. Industry Capacity Growth - China's acrylonitrile production capacity increased from 2.355 million tons in 2019 to 4.399 million tons in 2023, with a projected capacity of approximately 4.839 million tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10% [2]. Industry Definition and Classification - Acrylonitrile, with the chemical formula C3H3N, is a colorless liquid with a pungent odor, used primarily in the production of polyacrylonitrile fibers, ABS resin, and nitrile rubber [4]. Regulatory Framework - The main regulatory bodies for the acrylonitrile industry include the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which oversee policy formulation and implementation [6]. Industry Policies - Recent government policies aim to promote the development of the acrylonitrile industry, including the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting Green Innovation and High-Quality Development in the Refining Industry" released in October 2023, which encourages product structure adjustments and production technology upgrades [7][8]. Industry Barriers - The acrylonitrile industry faces several barriers, including: - **Technical Barriers**: The production process requires advanced technology and expertise, making it challenging for new entrants [10]. - **Market Barriers**: Established companies dominate the market, creating a competitive landscape that is difficult for newcomers to penetrate [11]. - **Financial Barriers**: High initial investment costs for production facilities and technology pose significant challenges for new entrants [12]. Industry Chain Analysis - The acrylonitrile industry chain consists of upstream raw materials (liquid ammonia, acetonitrile, propylene), midstream production, and downstream applications, with ABS becoming the largest demand sector due to growth in the automotive and home appliance industries [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, suggesting investment opportunities in high-quality refining companies and upstream service providers [2][4]. Core Insights - The European refining sector is undergoing significant restructuring due to declining demand, aging facilities, and reduced profitability, with refining capacity decreasing by 4.2 million barrels per day since 2005, a drop of over 23% [4][5]. - The average age of European refineries is 66 years, significantly higher than the global average of 51 years, leading to increased maintenance costs and declining competitiveness [7][10]. - High natural gas prices continue to exert pressure on refinery profitability, with expectations that European gas prices will remain elevated, negatively impacting operational costs [10][12]. - Several refineries are expected to shut down in 2025, including Shell's Rheinland refinery and BP's Gelsenkirchen refinery, collectively removing 390,000 barrels per day of capacity [12][13]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - As of May 9, 2025, Brent crude futures closed at $63.91 per barrel, a week-on-week increase of 4.27%, while WTI futures rose by 4.68% to $41.02 per barrel [19]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.032 million barrels to 438 million barrels, which is 7% lower than the five-year average for this time of year [21][22]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased by 6 to 578, a year-on-year decline of 25 rigs [19][30]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products was $10.90 per barrel as of May 9, 2025, down by $6.31 from the previous week [53]. - The price spread for ethylene was $245.67 per ton, up by $30.80 from the previous week, while propylene saw a decrease in its price spread [4][50]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices increased to an average of 4551.67 RMB per ton, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 0.75% [4][50]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry remains average, with a need to monitor demand changes closely [4][50]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong due to expected improvements in cost structures and competitive positioning [4][14]. - It also highlights the potential for recovery in the valuation of companies like Satellite Chemical and Tongkun Co., given the anticipated easing of tariffs affecting polyester demand [4][14].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [116] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the recent decline in raw material prices has led to an improvement in the price spread of polyolefins [1] - The Brent crude oil average price for the week ending May 9, 2025, was $61.53 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 3.94% [2] - The report indicates that the price spread for domestic key refining projects was 2357.39 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 55.96 CNY/ton (2.43%) [2] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - International oil prices have rebounded slightly due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a downward revision of U.S. oil production forecasts by the EIA [12] - Domestic and international refined oil prices have generally decreased, with domestic diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 6831.00 CNY/ton, 7978.00 CNY/ton, and 5914.00 CNY/ton respectively [12] Chemical Sector - Most chemical product prices have declined, but olefin product prices have shown relative resilience, with price spreads slightly improving [1] - Polyethylene and polypropylene prices have remained stable, with price spreads widening [46] - The report notes a slight decrease in EVA product prices, with an improvement in price spreads [46] Polyester Sector - The report mentions a slight improvement in polyester demand due to easing U.S. tariff issues [1] - PX product prices have decreased, but the decline is less than that of costs, leading to a widening price spread [76] - PTA prices have increased due to supply-side support, with the average price at 4542.86 CNY/ton [82] Market Performance of Major Refining Companies - The stock price changes for six major refining companies as of May 9, 2025, include Rongsheng Petrochemical (+2.88%), Hengli Petrochemical (+2.35%), and Dongfang Shenghong (+2.61%) [103] - Over the past month, the stock price of Dongfang Shenghong has increased by 12.73% [103] Price Spread Analysis - The domestic key refining project price spread has increased by 1.66% since January 4, 2020, while the international key refining project price spread has increased by 11.83% [2]

行 业 及 产 业 石油石化 2025 年 05 月 09 日 24Q4 及 25Q1 油价同比回落，上 游板块继续维持高景气，下游炼化 和聚酯板块盈利有所修复 陈悦 (8621)23297818× chenyue@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 看好 ——石油化工 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报业绩总结 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 刘子栋 A0230523110002 liuzd@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 陈悦 A0230524100003 chenyue@swsresearch.com 联系人 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 - ⚫ 2024Q4、2025Q1 原油价格先跌后涨，成品油价格先升后降：2024Q4 方面，2024 年 10、11、12 月 Brent 原油均价分别为 75.4、73.4、73.1 美元/桶，波动区间为 71—81 美元；2024Q4 均价为 7 ...

证券简称：荣盛石化 证券代码：002493 荣盛石化股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-001 | | □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | | □媒体采访 业绩说明会 | | 投资者关系活动类别 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | □其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） | | | 公司董事长李水荣先生 | | | 独立董事郑晓东先生 | | 活动参与人员 | 财务总监王亚芳女士 | | | 董事会秘书全卫英女士 | | 时间 | 2025 年 5 月 7 日 15:00~16:00 | | 地点 | 全景网"投资者关系互动平台"（http://ir.p5w.net） | | 形式 | 网络远程 | | | 荣盛石化于 年 月 日 在全景网全 2025 5 7 15:00~16:00 | | | 景•路演天下（http://rs.p5w.net）举行 2024 年年度业绩 | | | 网上说明会。本次交流活动采用网络远程的方式举行， | | | 问答环节主要问题如下： | | 交流内容及具体问答 | 问题 1：请问贵公司未来盈利增长的主要驱 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月07日 ➢ 风险提示：原油价格剧烈波动；下游需求不及预期；新材料项目落地不及预期。 [盈利预测与估值简表 Table_profits] | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入(百万元) | 289094.84 | 325111.61 | 326475.16 | 333855.87 | 348443.90 | 364351.06 | | 同比增速(%) | 63.31% | 12.46% | 0.42% | 2.26% | 4.37% | 4.57% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 3340.16 | 1158.15 | 724.48 | 2887.98 | 3831.54 | 4876.71 | | 同比增速(%) | -73.95% | -65.33% | -37.44% | 298.63% | 32.67% | 27.28% | | 毛利率(%) | 10.81% | 11.49% | ...

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨东方盛虹（000301.SZ） [Table_Title] 一季度业绩改善，炼化景气度企稳 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司 2024 年实现营业收入 1376.75 亿元，同比下降 1.97%；归母净利润-22.97 亿元，同比下 降 420.33%；扣非归母净利润-26.54 亿元，同比下降 1322.44%。2024 年第四季度营业收入 293.73 亿元，同比下降 20.10%，环比下降 17.18%；归母净利润-8.78 亿元，同比减亏；扣非 归母净利润-12.60 亿元，同比减亏。2025 年第一季度营业收入 303.09 亿元，同比下降 17.50%， 环比下降 3.19%；归母净利润 3.41 亿元，同比上升 38.19%；扣非归母净利润 2.93 亿元，同 比上升 239.46%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 魏凯 侯彦飞 SAC：S0490520080009 SAC：S0490521050002 SFC：BUT964 SFC：BVN517 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579 ...

本报记者 李哲 北京报道 受国际油价低位震荡、海外项目亏损等因素影响，恒逸石化（000703.SZ）2024年营收下滑，净利近 乎"腰斩"。 近日，恒逸石化披露2024年财报显示，其实现营收1254.63亿元，同比下滑7.85%；归母净利润2.34亿 元，同比下滑46.28%。 《中国经营报》记者注意到，恒逸石化文莱一期炼化项目全年亏损10.3亿元，成为业绩的最大"累赘"。 进入2025年，受国际油价震荡下行等因素影响，恒逸石化业绩进一步下挫。 2025年一季度财报显示，公司营收同比下滑14.18%，净利润同比下滑87.55%。 营收净利双降 截至2024年年底，恒逸石化已形成800万吨/年炼化设计产能（文莱炼化项目一期）、2150万吨/年参控 股PTA（精对苯二甲酸）产能、1285万吨/年参控股聚合产能、30万吨/年PIA（聚酰亚胺气凝胶）设计产 能及40万吨/年己内酰胺参股产能，依托"炼油—芳烃—聚酯"垂直整合优势，实现从原油加工到化纤产 品的全链条布局。 从产量数据来看，2024年，恒逸石化炼油产品产量为618.61万吨，化工产品产量为200.56万吨；控股子 公司浙江逸盛的PTA产品产量为260.96 ...

行业触及底部，有望迎来复苏 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 结合 2024 年原油与产品价格情况，以及公司已披露的生产经营与各项费率情况，我 们调整公司 2025 年每股收益 EPS 预测分别为 0.31 元（原预测 1.02 元），并添加 2026-2027 年预测为 0.39 和 0.49 元。我们采取历史估值法，参考公司过去 5 年 PB （TTM）均值 3.28，考虑到行业景气度底部以及预期 ROE 水平低于历史水平给予 20%折价，按 25 年每股净资产预测值 4.82 元对应目标价为 12.64 元，维持买入评 级。 风险提示 ⚫ 油价大幅波动；行业景气度下行；新材料项目发展不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | 1.61 | -6.51 | -7.25 | -28.76 | | 相对表现% | 1.84 | -2.93 | -6.15 | -32.93 | | 沪深 300% | -0.23 | -3.58 | -1.1 | 4.17 | 倪吉 021-63325 ...