行业 碳酸锂期货日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 15 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 请阅读正文后的声明 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2：碳酸锂期货持仓量成交量 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 碳酸锂期货减仓上涨，主力合约反弹至牛熊线附近，隔夜美 CPI 低于预期叠加前 期中美经贸谈判取得实质性紧张，市场做多情绪全面回暖，日内工业品几乎都上 涨，碳酸锂期货在前期放量深跌背景下本次反弹力度也较大，但现货表现相对平 静，电碳仅涨价 100 元，工碳也仅涨价 100 元，现货高库存压力仍然是涨价的主 要拖累因素。矿端价格止跌，随着锂价的反弹，外购 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows positive momentum with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above the annual line, indicating a slight increase of 0.23% and a total trading volume of 1,076.285 billion yuan [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of 13:59 today, the Shanghai Composite Index stands at 3,377.11 points, reflecting a year-to-date performance above the annual line [1]. - A total of 49 A-shares have surpassed the annual line today, with notable stocks showing significant deviation rates [1]. Group 2: Notable Stocks - The stocks with the largest deviation rates include: - Baoxin Technology (002514) with a deviation rate of 5.49% and a daily increase of 9.93% [1]. - ST Zhongzhu (600568) with a deviation rate of 4.76% and a daily increase of 5.22% [1]. - King Med (603882) with a deviation rate of 4.28% and a daily increase of 4.42% [1]. - Other stocks that have just crossed the annual line include: - Duofu Du (002506) with a deviation rate of 4.02% and a daily increase of 9.95% [1]. - Shapais (300791) with a deviation rate of 4.16% and a daily increase of 4.67% [1]. Group 3: Trading Data - The total trading volume for A-shares today reached 1,076.285 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [1]. - The stocks listed show varying turnover rates, with some stocks like Baoxin Technology and ST Zhongzhu having turnover rates of 9.92% and 1.36% respectively [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a strong rebound in the U.S. stock market, with the S&P 500 index rising 3.3% and successfully breaking through the critical 200-day moving average, marking the first time in over 30 trading days that it has surpassed this long-term trend indicator [1] - The 200-day moving average is widely regarded as a dividing line between bull and bear markets, indicating that prolonged trading below this level suggests weak market trends and diminished investor confidence [1] - Historical data from SentimenTrader shows that when the S&P 500 index hovers below the 200-day moving average for over 30 trading days after a three-year high, the subsequent performance is often positive, with a median gain of 4.1% over the next three months and a median return of double-digit growth over the following 12 months [1][3] Group 2 - The recent market rebound was catalyzed by the announcement of a 90-day pause on certain tariffs between the U.S. and China, which led to significant gains in major indices, including a 2.8% increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and a 4.4% rise in the Nasdaq Composite, officially exiting the "bear market" territory [4] - There is ongoing debate regarding the sustainability of this rally, with some market strategists emphasizing the importance of maintaining the 200-day moving average as a potential turning point for reaching new highs, while cautioning that failure to hold this level may indicate a short-term emotional rebound rather than a lasting recovery [4] - The potential for an economic recession remains a concern, as it could lead to long-term declines driven by shrinking corporate profits and household incomes, although the current situation has not yet fully entered this phase [4]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 螺丝钉设计了黄金星级、以及螺丝钉黄金牛熊信号板，来帮助判断黄金的估值高低。跟股市牛熊信号板类似，定期更新。 每周一，也会在小程序中更新螺丝钉黄金牛熊信号板，方便大家查询。 点击进入「 今天几星 」 小程序，在首页点击「牛熊信号板」按钮，就可以查看到当周最新的黄金牛熊信号板了。 以下是5 月 的黄金牛熊信号板， 长图片后面，有详细的介绍。 黄金价格 黄金的价格， • 海外主要参考伦敦金； • 内地主要参考上海金。 我们平时说金价多少元一克，指的就是上海金的价格。 两者走势很相似，差距主要是汇率变化引起的。 影响黄金涨跌的一个主要因素，是美元的实际利率。 实际利率=名义利率-通货膨胀率。 美元实际利率可以通过观察"通胀保值债券（TIPS）"的利率。 这种债券是考虑了通货膨胀之后的，对应利率跟实际利率比较接近。 除了美元实际利率，美元汇率波动，也会影响黄金价格。 黄金历史星级 2025年5 月 ，黄金价格在 1.0 星级。 2022年最便宜的时候，黄金有到过4点几星级的低估。 黄金在2011-2016年，走出了长达6年的阴跌熊市。这个长度甚至超过了A股历史最长的熊市。 中间也 ...

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3343.28 points, slightly down by 0.26%, with a total trading volume of 590.62 billion yuan [1] - 24 A-shares have surpassed their annual moving average, with notable stocks showing significant deviation rates [1] Summary by Category Stock Performance - Huaihe Energy (600575) has the highest deviation rate at 9.45%, with a daily increase of 10.03% and a turnover rate of 4.61% [2] - *ST Changyao (300391) follows with a deviation rate of 3.71%, increasing by 4.37% today [2] - Shuiyang Co., Ltd. (300740) shows a deviation rate of 3.58% with an 8.70% increase [2] Other Notable Stocks - *ST Chuangxing (600193) has a deviation rate of 3.47% and a daily increase of 4.94% [2] - Yahua Electronics (301337) has a deviation rate of 3.40% with a 5.06% increase [2] - Shaanxi Huada (301517) shows a 4.25% increase and a deviation rate of 3.38% [2] Market Overview - The overall A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, with a total trading volume of 590.62 billion yuan, indicating active trading [1]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 最近市场涨涨跌跌，进入5月份，按照惯例，也更新下，2025年5月初的螺丝钉股市牛熊信号板。 这个信号板有定量和定性两部分。 长图片后面，有详细的牛熊信号板相关数据意义的介绍。 2016.1 2018.10 2012.12 2000 2012.1.6 2025.5.7 巴菲特指标 100% 80% 72.10% 50% 2025.5.7 2022.1.4 注：80%以下通常代表偏低，市场比较便宜；80%-100%代表正常水平，100%以上代 表偏高,市场比较贵了。 市净率百分位 一 大盘价值 大盘成长 100% 50% 45.76% 30.97% 0% 2015.5 2020.1 2022.1 2018.1 2025.5.7 小盘成长 小盘价值 100% 50% 138.47% 15.28% 0% 2015.5 2020.1 2022.1 2025.5.7 2018.1 市净率百分位:指当前的市净率数据,处于它历史数据里百分之多少的位置。通常 所处的历史位置越低，估值越便宜。例如百分位为0，表示创下了历史新低。 股债性价比 近5年百分位: 3.63% 股债性价比 一 中证 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3305.11 points, above the annual line, with an increase of 0.80% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares is 646.819 billion yuan [1] Stocks Breaking Annual Line - A total of 233 A-shares have surpassed the annual line today [1] - Notable stocks with significant deviation rates include: - Jinkai Biological Science and Technology (10.11%) - Disen Power (9.84%) - Hanbo High-tech (8.84%) [1] Stock Performance Details - The top stocks with their respective performance metrics are as follows: - Jinkai Biological: Price increased by 10.32%, turnover rate 13.55%, latest price 33.02 yuan [1] - Disen Power: Price increased by 10.04%, turnover rate 1.77%, latest price 4.93 yuan [1] - Hanbo High-tech: Price increased by 9.42%, turnover rate 3.54%, latest price 15.33 yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include: - Jiashitang (9.97%, 3.57%, 13.13 yuan) - Sanmu Group (9.94%, 7.78%, 3.54 yuan) [1] Additional Stocks with Minor Deviations - Stocks with smaller deviation rates that have just crossed the annual line include: - Yongqing Environmental Protection - Dongjian Technology - Aishide [1]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 一、【直播回放】 有朋友问，历史上，黄金经历了哪些涨跌波动，收益率如何？ 连续上涨后，黄金目前估值如何？需要止盈吗？ 在今晚的直播课里，螺丝钉详细介绍了这些问题。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 0429 」即可观看直播回放。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） 二、【部分直播课内容如下】 1. 过去200多年里，黄金跑赢了通货膨胀 《股市长线法宝》最新版中，统计了黄金从1802年到2021年的年化收益率数据。 在剔除了通货膨胀之后，黄金长期年化收益率在0.6%上下。 这个数字是正的，说明黄金长期也跑赢了通货膨胀。 2. 黄金1971年之后，收益率大幅提升 不过黄金的长期收益有些特殊。 3. 黄金收益提升的原因：从金本位到纸币本位 在一百多年前，大多数国家，是处于金本位时代。 货币的发行会挂钩黄金。这种制度有利有弊。 好处是，金本位下，通货膨胀的数字是可控的，物价上涨比较慢。 缺点是限制了货币的供给，不利于社会经济发展。 从美国1929年大萧条之后，一直到二战，很多国家开始尝试废除金本位，改为纸币本位。 好处是货币供给大大增加，社会经济发展不再受 ...

| 002436 | 兴森科技 | 1.92 | 3.54 | 10.99 | 11.16 | 1.59 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000153 | 丰原药业 | 1.71 | 2.37 | 5.85 | 5.94 | 1.57 | | 300596 | 利安隆 | 2.96 | 3.1 1 | 28.09 | 28.53 | 1.56 | | 002999 | 天禾股份 | 3.60 | 4.49 | 5.95 | 6.04 | 1.53 | （文章来源：证券时报网） 证券时报·数据宝统计，截至今日下午收盘，上证综指3299.76点，收于年线之上，涨跌幅为0.25%，A股 总成交额为11212.07亿元。到目前为止，今日有106只A股价格突破了年线，其中乖离率较大的个股有优 博讯、富士莱、重庆建工等，乖离率分别为17.49%、14.53%、8.33%；江西铜业、美尔雅、徕木股份等 个股乖离率较小，刚刚站上年线。 4月22日突破年线个股乖离率排名 | 证券代 | 证券简称 | 今日涨跌幅 | 今日换手率 | 年线 | 最新价 | 乖离率 | ...

Core Insights - The event "Coconut Wind Feast: Sincere Thanks to Partners" organized by Dingxin Huijin took place from April 11 to 13 in Sanya, aimed at expressing gratitude to long-term clients and partners [1] - Over 40 clients and three private fund managers participated in the event, which included investment strategy sharing and market insights [1][2] - The event featured various investment strategies, including options strategies from Muxin Asset, cyclical investment insights from Guoyuan Xinda, and value-based investment approaches from Fengquan Investment [2][4][6] Group 1: Event Overview - The event was designed to thank clients for their trust and support, featuring a three-day retreat in Sanya [1] - Dingxin Huijin's General Manager, Qi Lingfeng, expressed gratitude to all attendees during the opening remarks [1] - The event included a dinner where participants enjoyed Hainan cuisine and shared investment experiences [2] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Muxin Asset's strategy focuses on options trading and has shown strong performance in various market conditions, providing investors with relatively controlled risks and strong return potential [2] - Guoyuan Xinda's founder, Shi Jianghui, discussed A-share market volatility and highlighted the ongoing value of gold as an investment [4] - Fengquan Investment's General Manager, Dong Sunde, emphasized a value-based investment approach, identifying opportunities in undervalued sectors within the Hong Kong stock market [6] Group 3: Client Engagement - A special segment featured a client representative presenting personalized gifts to fund managers, reflecting appreciation for their services [2] - The event concluded with a group photo session, symbolizing the strong relationships formed during the retreat [6] - Dingxin Huijin reaffirmed its commitment to client-centric service and professional wealth management [6]