下载图片 另存为PDF 分享 生猪周报 | 2025-05-12 【多空交织 猪价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、5月9日，生猪注册仓单705手； 2、钢联数据显示，5月重点省份养殖企业计划出栏量环比+1.22%；涌益咨询数据显示，5月其样本点计划出栏量环比+1.98%； 3、主力合约（LH2509）震荡调整，收盘于13925元/吨，持仓量约7.13万手。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加； 需求端来看，上半年较下半年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需 求对猪价的支撑有限；多头：①屠企入库尚未结束能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格坚挺，说明供需不像空头想的那么宽松；③后续 出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐进入生猪消费旺季；④玉米豆粕涨价可能抬升生猪养殖成本。 【策略建议】 1、观点：现货短期震荡，中长期不排除猪价新低可能； 2、核心逻辑： 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of the pig market is expected to shift from short - term relative balance to looser, and the price is predicted to fluctuate weakly. The short - term supply pressure is moderate, but there is potential phased supply pressure, and the demand is cooling. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously and set stop - losses [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The pig price fluctuated and adjusted, with the main contract rising 0.11% weekly [6][11]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, the post - festival slaughter rhythm of farmers is slow, and the slaughter weight remains stable. However, the price of fat pigs is lower than that of standard pigs, increasing the risk of secondary fattening and weakening the enthusiasm for entry. The pressure from the postponed supply may gradually appear after mid - to late May. According to the pig breeding cycle, the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the second and third quarters, and the medium - term supply pressure is increasing. On the demand side, the post - festival terminal demand declines, the sales speed of white - striped pigs slows down again, the slaughterhouse operating rate decreases, and there are still passive inventory - building phenomena in a few areas. Overall, the short - term supply pressure is general, but the potential phased supply pressure exists, and the demand cools down [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and set stop - losses [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures fluctuated and adjusted this week, and the main contract rose 0.11% weekly [8][11]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: The net short position in futures decreased, and there were 705 futures warehouse receipts [13]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average pig price this week was 14.94 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from last week and 0.47% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 40.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week and last month [28]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: As of April 30th, the national average pork price was 26.02 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows this week was 32.52 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [33]. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of April 23, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.68, down 0.03 from the previous week [38]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream Situation - **Sow Inventory**: In March 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 40.39 million, a decrease of 270,000 from the previous month and an increase of 1.17% year - on - year, equivalent to 103.6% of the normal inventory. In April, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of reproductive sows in large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.36% month - on - month and 4.31% year - on - year, and that in small and medium - sized farms increased by 1.61% month - on - month and 10.15% year - on - year [43]. - **Pig Inventory**: In Q1 2023, the national pig inventory was 417.31 million. In April, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 0.10% month - on - month and 6.28% year - on - year, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.91% month - on - month but increased by 10.98% year - on - year [46]. - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In April, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 4.46% month - on - month and 26.58% year - on - year, and that in small and medium - sized farms increased by 4.09% month - on - month and 74.89% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight remained unchanged from last week [49]. 3.3.2 Industry Profit - **Pig Breeding Profit**: As of May 9th, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 58.46 yuan/head, an increase of 9.92 yuan/head from the previous week, and the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 84.33 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.71 yuan/head from the previous week [54]. - **Poultry Breeding Profit**: As of May 9th, the poultry breeding profit was - 0.30 yuan/head, and the weekly loss increased by 0.15 yuan/head [54]. 3.3.3 Domestic Market - **Pork Imports**: From January to March 2025, China imported 280,000 tons of pork, a year - on - year increase of 7.69%, but it was at a historically low level [59]. 3.3.4 Substitute Products - **White - Striped Chicken Price**: As of the week of May 9th, the price of white - striped chicken was 13.7 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous week [62]. - **Standard - Fat Pig Price Difference**: As of the week of May 8th, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was 0.03 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week [62]. 3.3.5 Feed Situation - **Feed Ingredient Prices**: As of May 8th, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,358.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 186.28 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of May 9th, the corn price was 2,363.14 yuan/ton, an increase of 49.61 yuan/ton from the previous week [68]. - **Feed Index and Price**: As of May 9th, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 948.95, a decrease of 0.26% from the previous week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.37 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged from the previous week [72]. - **Feed Production**: As of March 2025, the monthly feed production was 27.772 million tons, an increase of 1.428 million tons year - on - year [76]. 3.3.6 CPI - As of March 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month [80]. 3.3.7 Downstream Situation - **Slaughterhouse Operating Rate and Inventory**: In the 19th week, the slaughterhouse operating rate was 28.54%, a decrease of 0.41 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 0.35 percentage points year - on - year. The frozen product storage rate of key slaughterhouses remained unchanged from the previous week [83]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of March 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughterhouses was 30.63 million, an increase of 40.7% from the previous month. In March 2025, the national catering revenue was 423.55 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [88]. 3.3.8 Pig - Related Stocks - The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data is provided [89].

证券代码：605296 证券简称：神农集团 公告编号：2025-056 云南神农农业产业集团股份有限公司 2025 年 4 月养殖业务主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 云南神农农业产业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）现将 2025 年 4 月养殖业务主要经营数据披露如下： 一、2025 年 4 月养殖业务主要经营数据 单位：万头 | 主要产品 | 销售量 | | 销售量同比增减(%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 当月 | 累计 | 当月 | 累计 | | 生猪 | 22.73 | 108.77 | 32.85 | 62.83 | 2025 年 4 月份，公司销售生猪 22.73 万头（其中：商品猪销售 21.00 万头， 仔猪销售 1.32 万头），销售收入 3.98 亿元。其中向集团内部屠宰企业销售生猪 3.29 万头。 2025 年 4 月份，公司商品猪价格呈现下降趋势，商品猪销售均价 14.68 元/ 公斤，比 2025 年 3 月份 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.04.30」 生猪市场周报 节日需求提高，支撑价格波动 研究员 ：柳瑜萍 期货从业资格证号 F0308127 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0012251 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：059586778969 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议：等待反弹抛空机会。 3 行情回顾：生猪价格继续下跌，主力合约周度下跌1.7% 。 行情展望：供应端，五一假期临近，部分养殖端和二育出栏大猪，出栏均重提高。标肥价差由负转正， 且养殖成本提高，二育风险提高，入场积极性减弱，关注前期二育出栏情况，供应后移产生的压力或 在5月中下旬后逐渐显现。根据生猪养殖周期，二三季度对应母猪产能处于增产周期，中期供应压力 趋增。需求端，上周屠宰厂开工率再度上升，预期五一假期期间终端需求有所好转，但节后需求或再 度降温，开工率或呈现先增后减趋势，少数地区被动入库现象犹存。总体来说，节假日需求增加，或 推动节后价格短暂反弹，但是基本面偏弱，后市将再度承压。 「 期货市场情况」 本周期货下跌 图1、大连生猪期货价格走势图 来源：文化 ...

华 金 期 货 生 猪 周 报 华金期货 研究院 2025/4/28 | 期货数据 | | 收盘价 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 生猪 | LH2507 | 13540 | -120 | -0.9% | | | | LH2509 | 14150 | -315 | -2.2% | 主力合约 | | | LH2511 | 13795 | -215 | -1.5% | | | 现货数据 | | 最新 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | 商品猪出栏价 | 全国（元/kg） | 14.87 | -0.03 3 | -0.2% | | | | 河南（元/kg） | 15.07 | -0.06 | -0.4% | 交割基准地 | | 出栏均重 | 样本企业（kg） | 124.04 | 0.03 | 0.0% | | | 价差 | | 变化 | 基差 | 基差值 | 变化 | | 09-07价差 | 610 | -195 | 7月 | 1530 | 60 | | 11-09价差 | -355 | 100 | 9月 | 920 | ...

2025 二季度 生 猪 及 饲料市场展望 4 月 山东德州 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S | | 目 彔 | | --- | --- | | 第一部分：二季度生猪市场影响因素 | | | 第二部分：玉米市场影响因素分析 | | | 第三部分：豆粕市场影响因素分析 | | | 第四部分：未来市场行情展望 | | p 2 | 生猪：一季度猪价表现强于预期，二季度持续兲注供应压力 | | | --- | --- | | 摘 | 要 | | 1、生猪市场供给增加继续对猪价施压，一季度生猪现货价格偏弱运行，但整体跌幅明显弱于此前市场预期。数据显示，截至3月27日，全 | | | 国生猪均价14.68元/公斤，较年刜跌1.64元/公斤；基准交割地河南地区猪价14.57元/公斤，较年刜跌1.7元/公斤。元旦过后，生猪现货价格 | | | 自阶段性高位回调，随后受到春节前需求及节后二次育肥的影响，出现阶段性小幅反弹。然而，供给压力仌是影响猪价的主要逻辑，春节 | | | 过后，终端需求迚入淡季，需求弱势亦对猪价形成利空，生猪现货价 ...

| | | 下载图片 | | --- | --- | --- | | 生猪周报 | | 另存为PDF 2025-04-21 | | | | 分享 | | 作者： | | | | 【现货震荡偏强 支撑盘面偏强震荡】 史香迎 | | | | 【市场动态】 | 生猪研究员 | | | 1、截止4月18日，生猪注册仓单515手； | | | | 2、钢联数据显示，4月重点省份养殖企业计划出栏量环比+3.25%；涌益咨询数据显示，4月其样本点计划出栏量环比+3.67%； | 期货从业资格：F03086321 | | | 3、主力合约（LH2509）本周偏强震荡，最高价14645元/吨，最低价14275元/吨，收盘于14465元/吨，持仓量约8万手。 | 交易咨询资格：Z0019355 | | | 【基本面分析】 | 联系方式： | | | 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加； | 0371-69106756 | | | 需求端来看，上半年较下半年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； | | | | 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标 ...