欧佩克秘书长阿尔盖斯：到2050年，全球石油需求将超过每天1.2亿桶。 ...

国际能源署（IEA）在石油投资问题上"调头"让人感到非常担忧。 预计石油需求到2050年将达到1.2亿桶/日。 石油和天然气缺乏投资是危险的。 石油输出国组织（OPEC）秘书长Ghais在Calgary Conference会议上表示：石油需求还没有出现见顶的迹 象。 ...

欧佩克秘书长阿尔盖斯：石油需求在短期内不会见顶。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The global oil inventory increased by 2.2% in Q1 and 1.6% since Q2. After the short - term negative impact of OPEC+ production increase in July, the crude oil is supported by risk sentiment repair, demand improvement in peak season and geopolitical risks, but the mid - term demand slowdown and supply increase will limit the short - term rebound. The focus is on whether Sino - US economic and trade consultations can reverse the macro - expectations [2]. - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is low, and its cracking spread is expected to weaken due to supply increase. Low - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread is expected to be under pressure due to insufficient demand and sufficient supply [3]. - Today's asphalt performance is weak, but the terminal demand is expected to improve. The de - stocking trend continues, and although the cracking spread faces short - term callback pressure, the upward trend is hard to reverse [4]. - Domestic LPG market is under pressure due to loose supply, limited growth in chemical demand and rising inventory. It maintains a low - level oscillation with some support from rising crude oil prices [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Global oil inventory increased by 2.2% in Q1 and 1.6% since Q2, with crude oil inventory up 2.1% and refined oil inventory up 0.8% [2]. - After the short - term negative impact of OPEC+ production increase in July, the crude oil is supported by macro - risk sentiment repair, demand improvement in peak season and geopolitical risks, but the mid - term demand slowdown and supply increase will limit the short - term rebound [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil demand for ship bunkering and deep - processing is low. Although there is some support from power - generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa, the demand for crude oil power - generation may exceed that of fuel oil this summer. The cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to weaken due to supply increase [3]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil has insufficient demand for ship bunkering, and with sufficient supply from refineries, its cracking spread is expected to be under pressure [3]. Asphalt - Today's asphalt performance is weak, and the cracking spread continues to decline. The theoretical loss of processing diluted asphalt is serious, and the inventory of diluted asphalt at ports is at a low level [4]. - The production increase of asphalt by refineries with quotas may lack sustainability, and the increase in asphalt production by major refineries is expected to be limited after the maintenance peak [4]. - The terminal demand for asphalt is expected to improve, and the de - stocking trend continues. Although the cracking spread faces short - term callback pressure, the upward trend is hard to reverse [4]. LPG - The domestic LPG market has loose supply due to weak refinery prices, falling terminal sales and increased refinery output. The chemical demand has limited growth space, and the inventory at terminals and refineries is rising, so the market is under pressure [5]. - The LPG market maintains a low - level oscillation with some support from rising crude oil prices [5].

今日(5月19日)24时起，油价下调！ 国际能源署(IEA)5月15日发布的月度石油市场报告显示，今年剩余时间全球石油需求增速将放缓至65万 桶/日，低于一季度99万桶/日的增速；预计今年全球石油需求增长平均增速为74万桶/日，2026年全球石 油需求增长平均增速为76万桶/日，均较上月估计值有所上调。 下一次调价窗口将在2025年6月3日24时开启。展望后市，隆众资讯分析师李彦认为，尽管市场对原油需 求前景的预期有所好转，但美国与伊朗的谈判取得重大进展，美伊局势有望缓和，或提振原油供应。同 时，全球经济和需求在短期内难以显著改善。综合来看，下一轮成品油调价下调的概率较大。 民生证券认为，尽管"欧佩克+"在5月初表示将继续超预期增产，但在国际局势影响下，油价在经历回落 之后迅速回升。考虑到"欧佩克+"后续增产的影响将逐步显现，目前油价上行空间相对有限。预计短期 内油价仍将在60美元/桶至65美元/桶的区间进行宽幅震荡。 国家发展改革委5月19日发布的通知显示，自5月19日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格(标准品，下同)每吨分 别降低230元和220元。 卓创资讯（301299）数据显示，本轮成品油零售限价下调落地后 ...

早盘速递 2025/5/16 热点资讯 1、国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会，国务院总理李强在会上强调，要深刻认识和准确把握当前经济形势，把发展的战略 立足点放在做强国内大循环上，以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国际循环的不确定性，推动我国经济行稳致远，努 力实现高质量发展。 2、我国城市更新顶层设计出台。中办、国办近日印发《关于持续推进城市更新行动的意见》，提出八方面主要任务，其中包 括：推进城镇老旧小区整治改造，开展完整社区建设，推进老旧街区、老旧厂区、城中村等更新改造，加强城市基础设施建设改 造等。这意味着中国大力实施城市更新按下"加速键"。 3、美国总统特朗普表示，伊朗已经同意有关核问题协议的部分条件，他将敦促伊朗在不获得核武器的情况下达成协议。美国正 在与伊朗进行认真的谈判，以实现长期和平。伊朗最高领袖高级顾问沙姆哈尼表示，伊朗愿承诺永远不制造核武器，以换取解除 经济制裁。 4、国际能源署（IEA）发布月报称，受经济下行和创纪录的电动车销量影响，预计今年剩余时间全球石油需求增速将放缓至65万 桶/日，低于一季度99万桶/日的增速。而由于原油价格下跌，该机构连续第二个月下调美国页岩油产量的预 ...

国际能源署表示，由于"经济逆风"，全球石油需求增长在2025年一季度强劲增长后，今年剩余时间内将 放缓，而供应过剩将持续到2026年。 周四，国际能源署IEA发布最新月度报告，将今年剩余时间全球石油需求增速，从1月至3月的同比增长 99万桶/日降至"低迷"的65万桶/日。此外，由于原油价格下跌，该机构还下调了美国页岩油产量的预 期。 IEA将2025年全年平均需求增长预测上调至74万桶/日，较上次报告高出2万桶/日。IEA预计2026年全球 供应量平均增长将略高于76万桶/日。 总部位于巴黎的IEA直言： 今年前三个月很可能仍将是2025年表现最强劲的季度。全球石油需求增长放缓的迹象可能已 经开始显现。 需求的疲软可能会对石油价格造成进一步打击，上个月石油价格因特朗普发动全球贸易战争以及 OPEC+宣布增产计划而短暂跌至四年低点。随着部分贸易担忧的缓解，布伦特原油期货价格已略有回 升，接近每桶65美元。然而，考虑到需求放缓与供应过剩的双重打击，油价的长期走势仍然面临严峻挑 战。 双重打击：贸易不确定性与新兴市场疲软 IEA警告称："贸易不确定性的增加预计将对世界经济，进而对石油需求产生负面影响。"这一判断来源 ...

Group 1 - The global trade conflict easing has led to a rebound in oil prices, but subsequent price movements will be primarily influenced by geopolitical situations and OPEC+ production levels [1][4] - As of May 15, international oil prices experienced a significant drop, with WTI crude oil futures at $61.72 per barrel, down over 2.2%, and Brent crude oil futures at $64.66 per barrel, down 2.15% [1] - Positive signals from US-Iran nuclear negotiations have emerged, with Iran's willingness to sign a nuclear agreement under certain conditions, which may lead to the lifting of economic sanctions [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ has officially started its long-awaited production increase process, with an agreement to raise output by 41.1 thousand barrels per day from May to June, despite a lower-than-expected increase in April [2] - OPEC has maintained its oil demand growth forecast for the next two years, projecting a global oil demand increase of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.28 million barrels per day in 2026, while also revising down its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.9% [2] - The international oil market's trading logic is shifting, with factors such as reduced US tariff pressures and ongoing sanctions against oil-producing countries contributing to price dynamics, while OPEC+ production increases and potential easing of US-Iran tensions present downside risks [4]

IEA月报：预测2025年总需求平均为1.039亿桶/日。 ...

IEA月报：将2025年平均石油需求增长预测上调2万桶/日，至74万桶/日，原因是国内生产总值增长预期 上调以及油价下跌。 ...