英国央行泰勒：英国经济的软着陆面临风险。 ...

| m | 贵金属日评20250704: 美国6月新增非农高于预期前值,特朗普政府将对各国设定新税率 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-07-03 | 2025-07-02 | 2025-06-27 | 收盘价 | 781.28 | 5.24 | 14. 88 | 776. 04 | 766. 40 | | | | | 成交重 | 202457.00 | 189582.00 | 169217.00 | -12,875.00 | 20, 365. 00 | 期货活跃台约 | 持仓量 | 175461.00 | 129822.00 | 6, 865. 00 | 45, 639, 00 | 168596.00 | | | | 库存(干克) | 18456.00 | 18237.00 | 18456. 00 | 0. 00 | 219.00 | 上海黄金 ...

金十数据7月4日讯，巴克莱分析师Moyeen Islam在一份报告中说，近期长期英国国债收益率的波动凸显 出英国国债市场的脆弱性。周三，30年期英国国债收益率攀升至5.452%的四周高点，因投资者担心英 国新任财政大臣的前景以及财政规则的变化。 长期英国国债收益率波动凸显出市场的脆弱性 ...

德国DAX30指数7月4日（周五）开盘下跌66.54点，跌幅0.28%，报23835.65点； 英国富时100指数7月4日（周五）开盘下跌31.44点，跌幅0.36%，报8791.76点； 欧洲斯托克50指数7月4日（周五）开盘下跌32.10点，跌幅0.60%，报5311.05点； 西班牙IBEX35指数7月4日（周五）开盘下跌76.66点，跌幅0.54%，报14089.14点； 意大利富时MIB指数7月4日（周五）开盘下跌89.15点，跌幅0.22%，报39854.00点； 法国CAC40指数7月4日（周五）开盘下跌41.89点，跌幅0.54%，报7712.66点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The emotional moment of UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves crying in Parliament highlights the current financial challenges facing the UK government, leading to significant market volatility and raising concerns about fiscal policy effectiveness [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The emotional display by Reeves triggered a severe market reaction, causing the British pound to drop, bond yields to surge, and mid-cap stock indices to plummet, reminiscent of the 2022 mini-budget crisis [1]. - Following the market turmoil, Prime Minister Keir Starmer publicly supported Reeves, assuring that her position was secure and that the fiscal strategy would remain unchanged [1]. Group 2: Economic Challenges - The Office for Budget Responsibility's latest report forecasts a mere 1.1% economic growth for the UK in 2025, indicating a worsening fiscal imbalance due to weak tax revenue growth [2]. - The Labour government's efforts to increase fiscal revenue through various tax measures, including raising capital gains tax and imposing VAT on private school fees, have not translated into public support, as indicated by unfavorable opinion polls [2]. Group 3: Policy Dilemmas - Reeves' emotional moment reflects the difficult position of the UK fiscal policy, where the government must balance maintaining market confidence while addressing rising social welfare demands amid sluggish economic growth [2]. - The primary challenge for Reeves is to address the fiscal gap widened by the failure of welfare reforms, with analysts suggesting she may have to choose between increasing taxes or cutting public services, both of which would directly impact citizens' lives [2][3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming autumn budget will be crucial in determining whether Reeves can present a plan that balances immediate compromises with long-term strategies, which is vital for the UK's recovery from a "high debt-low growth" scenario [3].

德国DAX30指数7月3日（周四）收盘上涨149.10点，涨幅0.63%，报23931.96点； 英国富时100指数7月3日（周四）收盘上涨49.21点，涨幅0.56%，报8823.90点； 法国CAC40指数7月3日（周四）收盘上涨16.13点，涨幅0.21%，报7754.55点； 欧洲斯托克50指数7月3日（周四）收盘上涨24.43点，涨幅0.46%，报5343.15点； 西班牙IBEX35指数7月3日（周四）收盘上涨143.84点，涨幅1.02%，报14181.34点； 意大利富时MIB指数7月3日（周四）收盘上涨149.72点，涨幅0.38%，报39935.00点。 ...

德国DAX 30指数初步收涨0.44%，报23894.97点。 法国股指初步收涨0.14%，意大利股指初步收涨0.25%、银行指数涨0.34%，英国股指初步收涨0.48%。 ...

路透调查：25位经济学家中有21位表示，他们对英国官方经济数据的质量感到担忧；10人表示非常担 心。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley analysts suggest that the Bank of England may accelerate interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025 due to anticipated economic slowdown and uncertainty in tax revenue from the autumn budget [1] Economic Outlook - Economic activity in the UK is expected to decline in the coming months, prompting the Bank of England to potentially lower interest rates faster than market expectations [1] - The current benchmark interest rate of the Bank of England is projected to decrease from 4.25% to 3.25% by the end of the year [1]

英国财政大臣里夫斯否认情绪表现与首相有关。 ...