Industry Dynamics - In the first four months of 2025, the production of liquor in China decreased by 7.8% year-on-year, totaling 1.308 million kiloliters, with April's production at 281,000 kiloliters, down 13.8% year-on-year [3] - The national liquor price index fell by 0.03% in mid-May, with premium liquor prices dropping by 0.06%, indicating market adjustment pressures due to weak high-end consumption and intensified competition [3] - Retail sales of tobacco and liquor in China increased by 5.8% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, reaching 230.5 billion yuan [4] - Guizhou province announced three liquor investment projects totaling 660 million yuan and a 5 billion yuan project for the production of sauce-flavored liquor [4] Company Dynamics - Guizhou Moutai launched the 2025 Moutai Friends Carnival, attracting nearly 500 participants to experience Moutai's culture and production processes [6] - The first 2025 China Yibin Wuliangye Wedding Festival was held, promoting cultural integration with innovative experiences [6] - Three liquor companies, Yanghe, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Guojingong, held annual performance briefings, focusing on market strategies and product launches [7] - Moutai's shareholders approved a profit distribution plan for 2024, with a cash dividend of 276.24 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 34.671 billion yuan [7] - Shede Liquor is accelerating its production expansion project, which includes 23 sub-projects aimed at enhancing production capacity by 2027 [7] - Anhui Yingjia Gongjiu set a revenue target of 7.6 billion yuan for 2025, expecting a 3.49% year-on-year growth [8]

1. 消费疲软，高端白酒需求承压 白酒行业，尤其是高端白酒，与经济景气度、商务宴请及礼品消费高度相关。2023年以来，宏观经济增 速放缓、企业商务活动减少，导致高端白酒动销不及预期。茅台、五粮液等品牌虽然仍保持较强的品牌 溢价，但终端零售价和批发价出现松动，部分经销商库存压力加大，市场对行业增长的乐观预期受到冲 击。 2. 政策因素影响市场情绪 近年来，"禁酒令"传闻、反腐政策深化等消息屡次扰动白酒板块。尽管茅台等头部酒企强调其消费属性 而非政务依赖，但市场仍对政策风险保持敏感。此外，白酒消费税调整的讨论也增加了投资者的观望情 绪，部分资金选择暂时撤离。 3. 资本市场风格切换，资金流向其他板块 2023年下半年以来，A股市场风格偏向科技、新能源等成长板块，而传统消费股（包括白酒）的吸引力 相对下降。叠加美联储加息预期、外资流出等因素，白酒板块作为外资重仓领域，遭遇一定程度的抛售 压力。 4. 估值回调，市场回归理性 过去几年，白酒股估值持续攀升，茅台市盈率（PE）一度超过50倍，五粮液、泸州老窖等也处于历史 高位。随着行业增速放缓，市场开始重新评估白酒股的合理估值水平，部分投资者选择获利了结，导致 股价回落 ...

每经记者｜温梦华 每经编辑｜彭水萍 在刚刚举行的茅台股东大会上，A股"股王"茅台将2025年的营收KPI定为增长9%。这一数字，既在意料之中，又在意料之外。当前整个行业面临诸多困局和 挑战，但茅台还是在2024年交出了一份营收、净利润增速均超15%的"韧性答卷"。 一直以来，大多数白酒股都会在年报中披露下一年的经营"小目标"。而在过去几年，两位数增长基本成为年报"标配"。如今，变化正在悄然发生。 《每日经济新闻·将进酒》记者梳理发现，6家头部上市白酒企业中，只有茅台明确提出了2025年营收增长目标，其余5家企业在谈及新一年经营计划的时候 不约而同地"不提目标"，而使用"与宏观经济指标保持一致""继续保持稳健增长态势"等表述。 不仅头部酒企如此，绝大多数的其他白酒企业也在这个问题上选择"失声"。 产业没有永远的上行！整个白酒行业增速明显放缓之下，一众酒企纷纷主动选择了降速求稳的稳健策略。不再执着于业绩增长KPI目标，是否意味着中国白 酒行业追求两位数增长的"高速时代"正式迈入稳中求进的"稳健时代"？ 2024年白酒营收净利增速放缓 多家头部酒企均未完成经营KPI 身处白酒产业深度调整期，2024年白酒酒企业绩增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is currently undergoing a period of adjustment, influenced by changes in consumer behavior and economic conditions, leading to a focus on inventory reduction and product innovation among major liquor companies [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The liquor industry is in a "three-period overlap" phase, experiencing deep adjustments due to macroeconomic cycles, industry cycles, and individual company/product cycles [2]. - Major liquor companies are facing slowed or declining performance growth, with Wuliangye's 2024 revenue reaching 89.175 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% [2]. - Luzhou Laojiao's 2024 revenue and net profit grew by 3.19% and 1.71% respectively, while other companies like Shede Liquor reported significant declines in performance [2]. Group 2: Inventory Management - Major liquor companies have improved inventory levels after implementing strict supply control measures, with Wuliangye reporting low social inventory levels for its eighth-generation product [1][4]. - Wuliangye's sales performance has remained stable, with online sales increasing by 30% year-on-year, and overall market prices continuing to rise [4]. - Yanghe Co. emphasized the importance of inventory reduction as a key focus moving forward, while Luzhou Laojiao reported that its channel inventory is currently manageable [5]. Group 3: Strategic Goals - Guizhou Moutai has set a revenue growth target of 9% for 2025, reflecting a more cautious approach compared to previous years [3]. - Wuliangye aims to align its revenue growth with macroeconomic indicators for 2025, moving away from previous aggressive growth targets [3]. - Luzhou Laojiao's 2025 operational plan focuses on steady progress rather than aggressive growth, indicating a shift in strategy [3]. Group 4: Consumer Trends - The industry is witnessing a shift towards younger consumers and lower-alcohol products, with Luzhou Laojiao noting that nearly 50% of its revenue now comes from lower-alcohol products [6]. - Luzhou Laojiao plans to enhance the quality of its lower-alcohol products and target the "Z generation" through innovative marketing strategies [6]. - Wuliangye is also focusing on the younger consumer market, planning to accelerate the development and promotion of its lower-alcohol products [7].

数据显示，2024年白酒行业营收和净利润增长降至个位数，2025年一季度复苏增长更是缓慢，营收和净 利润同比增长仅为2.3%和2.6%。 珍酒李渡作为白酒资本市场新势力，于2023年4月27日在港股成功上市，成为近9年来唯一上市白酒企 业。上市首年，珍酒李渡凭借出色业绩，在白酒上市公司中排名第九。2024年，面对行业深度调整，珍 酒李渡继续保持第九位次，验证了企业强大的经营韧性和抗风险能力。 核心指标增长亮眼 当前，在消费预期转弱与行业持续分化的双重压力下，白酒行业整体承压前行，微增长、稳增长成为行 业基本面。 回顾新中国酒业历史，江山代有才人出，曾几次城头变幻大王旗，经历过泸州老窖时代、汾酒时代、五 粮液时代，再到现在茅台时代。 尤其近年来，白酒行业进入深度调整期，市场竞争愈发激烈。在中国白酒上市企业TOP10榜单中，不仅 前三宝座竞争激烈，前十阵营同样打响"攻守战"，有的企业凭借优势强势入榜，也有企业黯然退场。 | | 中国自酒上市企业TOP10 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 非名 | 2023年 2024年 | | | 1 | 贵州茅台 贵州茅台 | Controller of t ...

据"贵州茅台"微信公众号消息，5月16日，茅台集团党委副书记、总经理王莉一行到访五粮液，与五粮 液集团（股份）公司党委书记、董事长曾从钦，五粮液股份公司党委副书记、副董事长、总经理华涛进 行深入的座谈交流。在座谈会上，双方一致认为，应对当前白酒行业的周期性调整，离不开攻坚克难的 精神，更需要团结一心的合力。 曾从钦还表示，共育行业创新前进动能，聚焦白酒年轻化、国际化等破局突围之路，在年轻消费者培 育、国际市场拓展等方面加强互鉴和协作，为行业增量改革注入新的强劲动能。共创行业转型升级范 式，在新工具、新技术的应用场景、应用路径上加强沟通合作，积极探索市场端数字营销、体验经济的 新业态、新模式，不断探索白酒"经典产业"的无限可能。共护行业绿色发展环境，在生态化产区、生态 化园区建设方面，共同探索和推动白酒产业构建完整的"零碳"发展理念和"零碳"发展模式，呵护好中国 白酒不可复制的酿造基因和生态密码。共塑行业竞合发展生态，坚决扛起行业龙头企业责任，始终秉持 竞合发展思维，精诚团结、携手共进，引领行业加强自律，不内卷、不内战、不内耗，坚定当好市场秩 序的守护者、行业生态的建设者。 近期，贵州茅台与五粮液在业绩会上回应 ...

Industry Dynamics - In early May 2025, the national white liquor price index decreased by 0.05% to 99.95, with famous liquor down 0.04% and local liquor down 0.12, while base liquor remained stable at 100.00 [4] - The wholesale price index for white liquor increased by 8.84% year-on-year, with famous liquor up 10.92% [4] - Analysts attribute the decline in the price index to industry adjustments, weak consumption, and a restructuring of the pricing system, particularly in wedding banquet scenarios [4] - Four new liquor industry standards will be implemented starting November 1, 2025, covering various fruit wines and cooking yellow wine [5] - The "Chinese Whisky Plan" aims to tackle common technical challenges in the whisky industry with a budget exceeding 5 million yuan, targeting the establishment of core patents and technical guidelines within two years [7] - Guizhou province announced 11 liquor projects with a total investment of approximately 9.42 billion yuan, focusing on various production and logistics initiatives [7] - The establishment of the Qionglai Wine Industry College aims to foster innovation and collaboration between government, academia, and industry [8] Company Dynamics - Moutai's sauce-flavored liquor company has selected three e-commerce platforms for its theme terminal store operations, including Meituan, Ele.me, and Douyin [9] - Several personnel changes have occurred in various liquor companies, including new appointments at Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan and Moutai Cultural Tourism [9] - Zhenjiu Lidou plans to launch a new mid-to-high-end product priced between 500 to 600 yuan, targeting the market segment around 2000 yuan [10] - Hong Kong-listed China Environmental Energy has changed its name to "Du Fu Liquor Group," focusing on modern liquor production and sales [11]

图片来源：视觉中国-VCG211308670616 虽然头部企业的排名有所变化，比如山西汾酒弯道超车、以360亿元的营收跻身行业前三，但中腰部酒企却在过去一年真正上演了一场激战"卡位战"。前一 年白酒业务达百亿元的顺鑫农业，2024年缩水到70亿元，加入迎驾贡酒与珍酒李渡之间的激战；2023年营收达到70亿元的舍得酒业，在行业深度调整之下采 取主动控量，营收水平下滑，与老白干酒、水井坊成为卡位"50亿元"营收的三大酒企。 当前，行业将继续调整，增长也迎来了换挡期，产品布局高端化、年轻化成为白酒行业的共同趋势。可对于单个酒企特别是区域化更加明显的中腰部酒企来 说，要在激烈的市场竞争中"卡位"成功，恐怕更多是要看全国化布局的成效如何。到底谁能以奇招破题呢？ 每经记者｜熊嘉楠 每经编辑｜彭水萍 随着上市公司2024年度财报披露完毕，白酒上市公司去年整体的业绩表现也浮出水面。总的来说，在行业整体承压之下，大多数白酒股还是交出了稳健增长 的"成绩单"。 Wind数据显示，22家白酒上市公司2024年实现营业收入合计4462.22亿元，归母净利润合计1678.18亿元，8.12%和6.67%的增速则较上一年营收、净利双位 ...

价盘、产能、回购、国际化、代言人、行业趋势……投资者对茅台总有问不完的问题。 5月12日下午，贵州茅台举行了2024年度及2025年一季度业绩说明会，代总经理王莉、董秘蒋焰等贵州 茅台管理层出席，回应了投资者关心的诸多热点问题。21世纪经济报道记者也以投资者身份向管理层提 问，并获得回应。 国际化分级拓展 国际业务是今年贵州茅台的业绩亮点。上个月刚出炉的2025年一季报显示，今年一季度贵州茅台来自国 外的收入11.19亿元，同比大涨37.5%。这是其去年茅台出口营收首次突破50亿元后，继续实现高增长。 这背后，茅台主要做了哪些工作？具体哪些市场增长较好？ 中期的问题则涉及到茅台的产能释放节奏。针对茅台酒，茅台正在推进"茅台酒十四五技改建设项目"， 拟投资155.16亿元，建成后可新增茅台酒司机产能1.98万吨/年，储酒能力8.47万吨。从去年财报来看， 2024年新增基酒设计产能1800吨，同时茅台酒的产量为56272吨，相比前一年有所回调。 对于目前的投产节奏，有投资者提出疑问。对此王莉回应，具体产能的释放节奏，会充分考虑生态承 载、工匠培养、市场状况等要素，科学布局、有序推进，并表示茅台酒的产量波动属正常 ...

编号：2025-003 | | 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | 活动类别 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | 现场参观 | | | □其他 | | 参与单位名 | 方正证券王泽华、申万宏源吕昌、浙商证券杨骥、华鑫证券孙 | | 称及人员姓 | 山山、长城证券卢潇航、天风证券张潇倩、中金证券王文丹、 | | 名 | 中信证券魏一、银华基金方建等 80 余人。 | | 时间 | 2025 年 5 月 12 日 15:40-18:00 | | 地点 | 线上方式 | | | 董事长：吴向东 副董事长：彭宇清 | | 上市公司接 | 董事、总经理：杨武勇 | | 待人员姓名 | 常务副总经理：杨强 | | | 董事会秘书：梁芳斌 | | | 财务总监：胡亮锋 | | | 一、管理层介绍公司情况 | | | 2024 年，受宏观经济周期波动及行业结构性调整双重影 | | 投资者关系 | 响，国内酒类消费市场进入阶段性深度调整期。行业统计数 | | 活动主要内 | 据显示，终端消费需求呈现结构性分化态势，头部名酒价格 | | 容介 ...