Core Viewpoint - The Malaysian Ringgit has reached its highest level in nine months against the US dollar, driven by easing global trade tensions and a general weakness of the dollar [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - The Ringgit appreciated by 0.7% to 4.1805 against the US dollar, marking the highest level since October of the previous year [1] - The recent appreciation of the Ringgit reflects increased confidence in Malaysia's export-dependent economy due to signs of a resolution in the global trade war [1] Group 2: Trade Agreements - There are indications that trade agreements between the US and up to 12 major trading partners are expected to be finalized before the July 9 deadline, contributing to the rise of the Ringgit [1] Group 3: Dollar Weakness - The decline of the US dollar is attributed to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and concerns over the expanding US fiscal deficit [1]

智通财经APP获悉，据报道，随着7月9日关税谈判截止日期临近，印尼宣布将放宽多项产品进口管制， 并向美国提出共同开发关键矿产项目的合作邀约。 周一，这个东南亚最大经济体表示将放宽或取消对十大类商品及原材料的进口限制，涵盖林产品、珍 珠、补贴化肥、部分燃料与化学品、塑料原料、食品托盘、自行车及鞋类等商品。 负责牵头应对美国32%关税威胁的印尼经济统筹部长Airlangga Hartarto表示，这些措施既有助于与美国 的关税谈判，也能推动印尼实现更广泛的经贸目标，包括与欧盟达成贸易协定及加入经合组织 (OECD)。 这些政策调整正值全球贸易紧张局势加剧、东南亚区域竞争升温之际。印尼正试图将自身打造成更具吸 引力的国际投资目的地，但该国在国际管理发展学院最新发布的全球竞争力报告中排名下滑了13位。 整体放宽措施也标志着总统普拉博沃・苏比安托改善印尼商业环境的早期举措之一。这位总统此前曾强 调，印尼需简化行政流程、提升竞争力，以加速经济增长并实现发展目标。 Hartarto表示，这些将在未来数月内生效的政策调整，部分源于区域竞争压力及全球贸易局势的整体紧 张，同时也契合总统缓解经济不确定性的指示。他补充道，后续还将 ...

Group 1 - Fitch Ratings has revised its global economic growth forecast for this year from 1.9% to 2.2%, and next year's forecast from 2% to 2.2%, although these figures remain below last year's growth of 2.9% and the long-term average of 2.7% [1][3] - The adjustment is primarily due to the recent improvement in the international trade environment, with reduced tariff disputes between the US and major trading partners alleviating recession concerns [3][5] - The economic growth forecast for the Eurozone has been slightly upgraded to 0.8% from a previous estimate of 0.6%, but remains constrained by energy price volatility and weak manufacturing [5][6] Group 2 - The US economic growth forecast for 2022 has been raised from 1.2% to 1.5%, indicating short-term economic resilience, although domestic demand may slow in the latter half of the year [3][5] - The uncertainty surrounding global trade remains, with the effective tariff rate in the US currently at 14.2%, potentially rising to nearly 18%, which could exert pressure on global supply chains and inflation [5][6] - Fitch warns that despite short-term improvements, the global economy faces the most severe trade risks since the 1930s, with tariff policy uncertainty continuing to suppress business investment and consumer confidence [6]

Economic Overview - In April 2025, Canada's real GDP decreased by 0.1%, ending the growth trend observed in March [1] - The goods-producing sector experienced an overall decline of 0.6%, with manufacturing being a significant drag, falling by 1.9% [1] - Durable and non-durable goods manufacturing dropped by 2.2% and 1.6% respectively, indicating negative impacts from tariff uncertainties on transportation equipment manufacturing and the food and oil industries [1] Service Sector Performance - The service-producing sector saw a slight increase of 0.1%, with public administration, finance and insurance, and arts and entertainment contributing to this growth [2] - The finance and insurance sector grew by 0.7%, marking the largest increase since August 2024, driven by high-frequency trading activities due to U.S. tariff announcements [2] - The arts, entertainment, and recreation sector achieved a growth of 2.8%, primarily due to increased attendance at NHL playoff games in Canada [2] Trade and Resource Sector Insights - The wholesale trade sector declined by 1.9%, significantly impacted by reduced imports and exports in motor vehicles and parts [7] - In the resource sector, while the oil and gas extraction sub-sector was affected by decreased natural gas and crude oil production, oil and gas support activities saw an increase due to rising drilling activities [7] Government Financials - In Q1 2025, the total deficit for all levels of government in Canada was CAD 12.4 billion, a reduction of CAD 19.6 billion compared to the same period last year [7] - The federal government significantly reduced its deficit to CAD 8.7 billion, while provincial and territorial governments faced pressures from increased spending and reduced revenues [7] Future Economic Outlook - The real GDP is expected to continue declining by 0.1% in May 2025, indicating challenges for short-term economic growth [7] - Growth in real estate rental activities may partially offset declines in other sectors [7] - The economic situation reflects the impact of global trade tensions on Canada's manufacturing and export-oriented industries, while also highlighting the supportive role of the service sector and other areas in economic growth [7]

Group 1 - The EU automotive market has experienced growth for the second consecutive month, with new car registrations in May increasing by 1.6% year-on-year [1] - The electric vehicle (EV) market in the EU saw a significant year-on-year growth of 27.2% in May, driven by strong consumer demand [1] - The market penetration of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hybrid models is increasing, leading to a diversification in consumer brand preferences [1] Group 2 - The growth in new car registrations is primarily driven by sales of BEVs, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), which accounted for 58.9% of passenger car registrations in May, up from 48.9% in May 2024 [2] - Stricter CO2 emission regulations implemented by the EU since the beginning of the year have prompted manufacturers to increase the availability of electric and hybrid vehicles [2] - Despite the overall growth in the EV market, Tesla's new car registrations in the EU fell by over 40% year-on-year, with 8,729 units registered in May [2] Group 3 - Major German automakers reported growth in new car registrations in May, with Volkswagen up 4.8% to approximately 263,800 units, BMW up 8.1% to 63,200 units, and Mercedes-Benz up 3.9% to 47,900 units [3] - Chinese manufacturers sold 65,000 vehicles in Europe in May, capturing a market share of 5.9%, attributed to a strategic focus on PHEVs and HEVs [3] - The surge in exports of Chinese PHEVs reflects rising global demand and competitive pricing and quality in the European market [3] Group 4 - The European EV market is recovering but faces challenges, including a projected demand for 8.8 million public charging stations by 2030, necessitating a significant increase in installation rates [3] - The European automotive industry is impacted by U.S. tariffs, leading to several companies retracting their 2025 profit forecasts [4] - The European Automobile Manufacturers Association anticipates a 1.9% recovery in automotive activity by 2026, although production levels will remain below those of 2019 [4]

Group 1 - Platinum prices have surged to their highest level since 2014, driven by strong demand from Chinese jewelry buyers who prefer platinum over gold [1][4] - Platinum prices rose nearly 3% on Thursday, while palladium saw an increase of over 5%, indicating a positive momentum for platinum due to its supply shortage [1] - Gold prices have increased by over 25% this year but have shown signs of weakening due to easing trade tensions and buyers favoring lower-priced precious metals [3] Group 2 - As of the latest report, platinum prices reached $1,381.26 per ounce, while palladium prices rose to $1,101.64 per ounce, and gold prices increased to $3,336.90 per ounce [3] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy and potential interest rate cuts are influencing gold prices, with indications that inflation remains moderate [3] - The relationship between platinum and palladium is highlighted, as they can substitute for each other in automotive catalysts, suggesting that rising platinum prices may positively impact palladium [1]

市场不确定性重新显现 黄金期货上涨 金十数据6月25日讯，随着持续的市场不确定性开始再次出现，黄金期货价格上涨。由于以色列和伊朗 的停火打击了避险需求，黄金在本周早些时候遭遇大幅抛售后已经企稳。XS.com的Samer Hasn在报告 中表示，尽管如此，避险需求仍受到地缘政治和贸易相关风险的支撑。尽管各方对停火持乐观态度，但 局势再次升级的可能性仍然存在，因为根据一份泄露的美国情报报告，美国的打击似乎只将伊朗的核计 划推迟了几个月。市场的注意力也可能转向仍未解决的贸易紧张局势。 ...

中国多年来为实现粮食供应多元化而采取的努力终于迎来了"质的逆转"。今年5月份， 中国对一系列美 国农产品的进口量大幅下降。 具体来看，中国从美国进口的新鲜去骨牛肉和食用高粱同比下降逾97%，玉米和未梳棉纱的进口量分别 下降逾93%和94%。美国冷冻牛肉的进口量下降了约50%，而多个类别的冷冻和腌制鸡肉的进口量下降 了超过60%。 事实上，进口订单减少影响的不仅仅是农业部门，从码头工人、卡车司机到仓储物流，每一环都会受到 影响。甚至有出口企业因为无力承担取消订单的成本，直接裁员。 尽管在今年5月中旬，中美达成一项临时"贸易休战"协议，削减了大部分加征关税。但以历史标准衡 量，关税仍然很高。 长期以来，美国一直是中国农产品进口的主要来源国。去年，它供应了中国21%的大豆进口量、15%的 玉米进口量、17.3%的小麦进口量和65.7%的高粱进口量。 大豆是中美贸易数据中罕见的亮点，5月份中国从美国进口的大豆数量同比增长了28.6%。但这一复苏 可能不会持续太久。 自特朗普在其首个任期内对中国征收关税后，中国就已将大部分大豆采购从美国转向巴西，通常新的供 应商建立起来，对美国的进口量就很难再回到过去了。不仅如此，对潜 ...

欧洲央行副行长金多斯：油价波动不会影响通胀回落 金十数据6月24日讯，欧洲央行副行长金多斯表示，最近因以色列和伊朗之间的冲突而导致的大宗商品 价格波动不会改变欧元区的通胀前景。金多斯周二说："如果油价上涨——但看起来油价在某种程度上 得到了控制——这是我们必须考虑的问题。但通胀下降的过程是被锚定的。从我们今天看到的情况来 看，这个过程并没有脱轨，一点也没有。"金多斯称，官员们对消费价格的走势感到满意，消费价格的 增速已从创纪录高位回落至略低于欧洲央行2%的目标。虽然未来几个月仍有可能持续实现这一目标， 但他表示，伊朗局势给本已被全球贸易紧张局势所笼罩的背景又增添了一层复杂性。金多斯表示："我 们认为，我们稳定价格的使命将得到履行，但我们始终要考虑到，不确定性的程度是残酷的。这迫使我 们格外谨慎。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) anticipates a slowdown in economic growth due to escalating global trade tensions, deteriorating financial market sentiment, and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1] Economic Growth Projections - The ECB projects that the Eurozone economy will grow by 0.9% in 2023, 1.1% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027 [1] Inflation Outlook - The inflation outlook for the Eurozone is more uncertain than in the past, with global trade frictions presenting both upside and downside risks [1] Risks Associated with Global Trade - Upside risks include the fragmentation of global supply chains, while downside risks involve a decline in demand for Eurozone export products [1]